Opinion Poll by Ireland Thinks for Sunday Independent, 2–3 April 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 22.0% 20.6–23.5% 20.2–24.0% 19.8–24.4% 19.2–25.1%
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0.0% 19.0% 17.6–20.4% 17.2–20.9% 16.9–21.2% 16.3–21.9%
Fine Gael (EPP) 0.0% 17.0% 15.7–18.4% 15.4–18.8% 15.1–19.2% 14.5–19.9%
Social Democrats (S&D) 0.0% 9.0% 8.1–10.1% 7.8–10.4% 7.6–10.7% 7.1–11.3%
Independent Ireland (RE) 0.0% 6.0% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2% 4.8–7.4% 4.5–7.9%
Aontú (*) 0.0% 6.0% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2% 4.8–7.4% 4.5–7.9%
Labour Party (S&D) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.2% 2.8–5.6%
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.0–4.5%
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.0–4.5%
Independents (*) 0.0% 2.9% 2.4–3.6% 2.2–3.8% 2.1–3.9% 1.9–4.3%
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.1% 1.7–2.7% 1.5–2.9% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.4%
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.2–3.3%
Independents (RE) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.0% 1.0–2.2% 0.9–2.3% 0.8–2.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Social Democrats (S&D) 0 2 2 2 1–3 1–3
Independent Ireland (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Aontú (*) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Labour Party (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Independents (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independents (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 27% 100%  
4 29% 73% Median
5 44% 44%  
6 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.3% 100%  
3 79% 99.7% Median
4 20% 20%  
5 0% 0%  

Fine Gael (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 14% 100%  
3 75% 86% Median
4 11% 11%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 5% 99.7%  
2 90% 95% Median
3 5% 5%  
4 0% 0%  

Independent Ireland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent Ireland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 45% 100% Last Result
1 54% 55% Median
2 0% 0%  

Aontú (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aontú (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100% Last Result
1 92% 92% Median
2 0% 0%  

Labour Party (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 85% 100% Last Result, Median
1 15% 15%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Independents (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE) 0 4 0% 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 3 0% 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D) 0 2 0% 2 2–3 2–3 1–3
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 44% 99.9%  
4 38% 56% Median
5 19% 19%  
6 0% 0%  

Fine Gael (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 14% 100%  
3 75% 86% Median
4 11% 11%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 2% 99.9%  
2 93% 98% Median
3 6% 6%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations