Opinion Poll by RED C for Business Post, 24 June 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.8–24.5%
Fine Gael (EPP) 0.0% 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.8–20.5% 15.1–21.3%
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0.0% 14.0% 12.6–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 11.9–16.2% 11.4–17.0%
Social Democrats (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.4–13.8% 10.1–14.1% 9.6–14.8%
Aontú (*) 0.0% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Independent Ireland (RE) 0.0% 5.0% 4.3–6.1% 4.0–6.3% 3.9–6.6% 3.5–7.1%
Labour Party (S&D) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Independents (*) 0.0% 3.4% 2.7–4.2% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.1–5.1%
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.2% 1.8–3.4% 1.7–3.6% 1.5–4.0%
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.2% 1.8–3.4% 1.7–3.6% 1.5–4.0%
Independents (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.3–2.5% 1.2–2.6% 1.1–2.8% 0.9–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 3 3–4 3–5 3–5 2–5
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Social Democrats (GUE/NGL) 0 3 3 3 2–3 2–3
Aontú (*) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Independent Ireland (RE) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Labour Party (S&D) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Independents (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independents (RE) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.3% 100%  
3 32% 99.7%  
4 26% 68% Median
5 42% 42%  
6 0% 0%  

Fine Gael (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 62% 98% Median
4 31% 36%  
5 5% 5%  
6 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 55% 99.9% Median
2 38% 45%  
3 6% 6%  
4 0% 0%  

Social Democrats (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 3% 100%  
3 97% 97% Median
4 0% 0%  

Aontú (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aontú (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.4% 100% Last Result
1 98.6% 98.6% Median
2 0% 0%  

Independent Ireland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent Ireland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 8% 8%  
2 0% 0%  

Labour Party (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 6% 6%  
2 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 38% 100% Last Result
1 62% 62% Median
2 0% 0%  

Independents (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Independents (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 77% 100% Last Result, Median
1 23% 23%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 5% 5%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–5 3–5 2–5
Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–4
Labour Party (S&D) 0 0 0% 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 62% 98% Median
4 31% 36%  
5 5% 5%  
6 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 45% 99.9% Median
2 46% 55%  
3 9% 9%  
4 0.6% 0.6%  
5 0% 0%  

Labour Party (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 6% 6%  
2 0% 0%  

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations