Social Democrats (GUE/NGL)

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 7 June 2024)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 11.1% 9.3–12.7% 8.9–13.1% 8.6–13.4% 8.0–14.0%
5 June 2026 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 12.0% 11.0–13.1% 10.7–13.4% 10.5–13.7% 10.0–14.2%
22–27 May 2026 RED C
Business Post		 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
1 May 2026 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 9.0% 8.2–10.0% 8.0–10.2% 7.8–10.5% 7.4–10.9%
17–22 April 2026 RED C
Business Post		 8.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
2–3 April 2026 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 9.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
20–25 March 2026 RED C
Business Post		 8.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
27 February 2026 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 10.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
13–19 February 2026 RED C
Business Post		 9.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 February 2026 Ipsos B&A
The Irish Times		 6.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
30 January 2026 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 10.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
16–21 January 2026 RED C
Business Post		 10.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
19 December 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 10.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4–5 December 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 8.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26 November 2025 RED C
Business Post		 8.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
31 October 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 9.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
21 October 2025 RED C
Business Post		 9.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
13–15 October 2025 Ipsos B&A
The Irish Times		 5.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
2–3 October 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 8.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4–9 September 2025 RED C
Business Post		 7.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 September 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 7.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 August 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 8.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
15 July 2025 Ipsos B&A
The Irish Times		 6.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 July 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 8.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
25 June 2025 RED C
Business Post		 7.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
30 May 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 9.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
22 May 2025 RED C
Business Post		 7.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–2 May 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 8.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
18–23 April 2025 RED C
Business Post		 7.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
17 April 2025 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times		 7.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
3–4 April 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 7.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26 March 2025 RED C
Business Post		 7.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
28 February 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 7.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
19 February 2025 RED C
Business Post		 7.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
31 January–1 February 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 8.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
22 January 2025 RED C
Business Post		 7.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–11 January 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 7.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A
22–26 November 2024 RED C
Business Post		 6.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
20–23 November 2024 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times		 6.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
21–22 November 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 5.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7–13 November 2024 Opinions
The Sunday Times		 6.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
12–13 November 2024 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times		 4.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–7 November 2024 RED C
Business Post		 6.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–2 November 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 6.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
18–23 October 2024 RED C
Business Post		 5.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
16–22 October 2024 RED C
Business Post		 5.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–16 October 2024 Opinions
The Sunday Times		 5.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 October 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 5.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
13–19 September 2024 Opinions
The Sunday Times		 5.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
14–17 September 2024 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times		 4.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5–10 September 2024 RED C
Business Post		 6.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
31 August 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 4.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
29–30 August 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 4.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 August 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 5.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 July 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 4.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26 June 2024 RED C
Business Post		 5.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Social Democrats (GUE/NGL).

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 0% 100% Last Result
0.5–1.5% 0% 100%  
1.5–2.5% 0% 100%  
2.5–3.5% 0% 100%  
3.5–4.5% 0% 100%  
4.5–5.5% 0% 100%  
5.5–6.5% 0% 100%  
6.5–7.5% 0.1% 100%  
7.5–8.5% 2% 99.9%  
8.5–9.5% 12% 98%  
9.5–10.5% 21% 85%  
10.5–11.5% 24% 64% Median
11.5–12.5% 26% 39%  
12.5–13.5% 12% 14%  
13.5–14.5% 2% 2%  
14.5–15.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
15.5–16.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 7 June 2024)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–3
5 June 2026 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
22–27 May 2026 RED C
Business Post		 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–3
1 May 2026 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
17–22 April 2026 RED C
Business Post		          
2–3 April 2026 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
20–25 March 2026 RED C
Business Post		          
27 February 2026 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
13–19 February 2026 RED C
Business Post		          
3 February 2026 Ipsos B&A
The Irish Times		          
30 January 2026 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
16–21 January 2026 RED C
Business Post		          
19 December 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
4–5 December 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
26 November 2025 RED C
Business Post		          
31 October 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
21 October 2025 RED C
Business Post		          
13–15 October 2025 Ipsos B&A
The Irish Times		          
2–3 October 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
4–9 September 2025 RED C
Business Post		          
5 September 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
1 August 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
15 July 2025 Ipsos B&A
The Irish Times		          
4 July 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
25 June 2025 RED C
Business Post		          
30 May 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
22 May 2025 RED C
Business Post		          
1–2 May 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
18–23 April 2025 RED C
Business Post		          
17 April 2025 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times		          
3–4 April 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
26 March 2025 RED C
Business Post		          
28 February 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
19 February 2025 RED C
Business Post		          
31 January–1 February 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
22 January 2025 RED C
Business Post		          
10–11 January 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
22–26 November 2024 RED C
Business Post		          
20–23 November 2024 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times		          
21–22 November 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
7–13 November 2024 Opinions
The Sunday Times		          
12–13 November 2024 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times		          
1–7 November 2024 RED C
Business Post		          
1–2 November 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
18–23 October 2024 RED C
Business Post		          
16–22 October 2024 RED C
Business Post		          
10–16 October 2024 Opinions
The Sunday Times		          
4 October 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
13–19 September 2024 Opinions
The Sunday Times		          
14–17 September 2024 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times		          
5–10 September 2024 RED C
Business Post		          
31 August 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
29–30 August 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
2 August 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
5 July 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
26 June 2024 RED C
Business Post		          

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Social Democrats (GUE/NGL).

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.5% 100%  
2 52% 99.5% Median
3 47% 47%  
4 0% 0%