Opinion Poll by Ireland Thinks for Sunday Independent, 31 July 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael (EPP) 0.0% 20.0% 18.7–21.4% 18.3–21.9% 18.0–22.2% 17.4–22.9%
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 20.0% 18.7–21.4% 18.3–21.9% 18.0–22.2% 17.4–22.9%
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0.0% 16.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.4–17.7% 14.1–18.0% 13.6–18.7%
Social Democrats (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 10.0% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.4% 8.5–11.7% 8.0–12.2%
Independent Ireland (RE) 0.0% 7.0% 6.2–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.4–9.0%
Aontú (*) 0.0% 7.0% 6.2–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.4–9.0%
Independents (*) 0.0% 3.1% 2.6–3.8% 2.4–4.0% 2.3–4.2% 2.1–4.5%
Labour Party (S&D) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.0–4.4%
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.0–4.4%
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.2% 1.8–2.9% 1.7–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.4–3.5%
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.2% 1.8–2.9% 1.7–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.4–3.5%
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.8% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.2%
Independents (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.1% 1.1–2.3% 1.1–2.4% 0.9–2.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 4 4 3–4 3–5 3–5
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0 3 3 3–4 3–4 3–5
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Social Democrats (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Independent Ireland (RE) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–1
Aontú (*) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Independents (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Labour Party (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independents (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 6% 100%  
4 90% 94% Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 93% 100% Median
4 6% 7%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.4% 100%  
2 23% 99.6%  
3 77% 77% Median
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Social Democrats (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 85% 100% Median
3 15% 15%  
4 0% 0%  

Independent Ireland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent Ireland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 95% 95% Median
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Aontú (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aontú (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 99.9% 99.9% Median
2 0% 0%  

Independents (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Labour Party (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Independents (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 5% 5%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Independents (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 4 0% 4 3–4 3–5 3–5
Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Labour Party (S&D) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 6% 100%  
4 90% 94% Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.2% 100%  
3 27% 99.8%  
4 72% 73% Median
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Labour Party (S&D)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations