Opinion Poll by Ireland Thinks for Sunday Independent, 4 September 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.1% 18.6–23.6% 17.9–24.4%
Fine Gael (EPP) 0.0% 19.0% 17.5–20.6% 17.1–21.1% 16.7–21.5% 16.0–22.3%
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0.0% 17.0% 15.5–18.5% 15.1–19.0% 14.8–19.4% 14.1–20.1%
Social Democrats (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 10.0% 8.9–11.2% 8.6–11.6% 8.3–11.9% 7.8–12.6%
Aontú (*) 0.0% 8.0% 7.1–9.2% 6.8–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.1–10.5%
Independent Ireland (RE) 0.0% 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.6–8.7% 5.2–9.3%
Labour Party (S&D) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%
Independents (*) 0.0% 2.7% 2.1–3.4% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.6–4.3%
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.9% 1.5–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–2.9% 1.1–3.3%
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.9% 1.5–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–2.9% 1.1–3.3%
Independents (RE) 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.9% 0.9–2.1% 0.8–2.2% 0.7–2.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Social Democrats (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
Aontú (*) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Independent Ireland (RE) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Labour Party (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independents (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independents (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 81% 100% Median
4 18% 19%  
5 1.3% 1.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Fine Gael (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 20% 100%  
4 79% 80% Median
5 0.8% 0.8%  
6 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 6% 100%  
3 94% 94% Median
4 0.8% 0.8%  
5 0% 0%  

Social Democrats (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 100%  
2 92% 99.7% Median
3 8% 8%  
4 0% 0%  

Aontú (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aontú (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Independent Ireland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent Ireland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 95% 95% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Labour Party (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Independents (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Independents (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.6% 0.6%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Independents (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Labour Party (S&D) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 10% 99.9%  
4 89% 89% Median
5 0.9% 0.9%  
6 0% 0%  

Fine Gael (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 20% 100%  
4 79% 80% Median
5 0.8% 0.8%  
6 0% 0%  

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Labour Party (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations