Opinion Poll by Ipsos B&A for The Irish Times, 21–22 September 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 23.0% 21.5–24.6% 21.1–25.1% 20.7–25.5% 20.0–26.3%
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0.0% 18.0% 16.6–19.5% 16.2–19.9% 15.9–20.3% 15.3–21.0%
Fine Gael (EPP) 0.0% 17.0% 15.7–18.5% 15.3–18.9% 15.0–19.2% 14.4–20.0%
Social Democrats (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 8.0% 7.1–9.1% 6.8–9.4% 6.6–9.7% 6.2–10.2%
Aontú (*) 0.0% 5.0% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.2% 3.9–6.4% 3.6–6.8%
Labour Party (S&D) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.7%
Independent Ireland (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.7%
Independents (*) 0.0% 3.9% 3.3–4.7% 3.1–5.0% 3.0–5.2% 2.7–5.6%
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.8% 2.3–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 2.0–3.9% 1.8–4.3%
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.8% 2.2–3.5% 2.1–3.7% 2.0–3.8% 1.7–4.2%
Independents (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–6 3–6
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0 3 3 3 3–4 3–4
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 3 3 3–4 3–4 3–4
Social Democrats (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Aontú (*) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Labour Party (S&D) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Independent Ireland (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Independents (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Independents (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 9% 98%  
5 87% 90% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 96% 99.9% Median
4 4% 4%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Fine Gael (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.3% 100%  
3 93% 99.7% Median
4 6% 7%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (GUE/NGL) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 27% 95%  
2 68% 68% Median
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Aontú (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aontú (*) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100% Last Result
1 88% 88% Median
2 0% 0%  

Labour Party (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 73% 100% Last Result, Median
1 27% 27%  
2 0% 0%  

Independent Ireland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent Ireland (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.6% 0.6%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (GUE/NGL) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Last Result, Median
1 17% 17%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE) 0 3 0% 3 3–4 3–4 3–4
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 3 0% 3 3–4 3–4 3–4
Labour Party (S&D) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 94% 99.9% Median
4 5% 5%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Fine Gael (EPP)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.3% 100%  
3 93% 99.7% Median
4 6% 7%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Labour Party (S&D)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 73% 100% Last Result, Median
1 27% 27%  
2 0% 0%  

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations