Poll Average
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Summary
The table below lists the polls on which the average is based. They are the most recent polls (less than 90 days old) registered and analyzed so far.
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | R | PZ | SLD | Wi | W–PR | L | W–PR | .N | P2050 | TD | AU–P | IP | KE | KO | KP | PO | PSL | P | PiS | ZP | RN | NN | K | W | Konf | KKP | BS | AU | T!DPL | PJJ | CP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 June 2024 | General Election | 0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
| N/A | Poll Average | 2–4% 0 |
0–1% 0 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
5–8% 2–4 |
N/A N/A |
1–3% 0–1 |
3–7% 2–4 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
0–1% 0 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
26–35% 16–20 |
3–6% 1–4 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
29–36% 16–20 |
3–7% 1–4 |
4–9% 2–5 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
2–4% 1–2 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
0–1% 0 |
| 25–27 October 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
2–4% 0 |
0–1% 0 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
5–9% 3–4 |
N/A N/A |
1–3% 0–1 |
5–8% 3–4 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
0–1% 0 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
30–36% 18–20 |
4–6% 2–4 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
29–34% 16–18 |
3–5% 2–3 |
4–7% 2–4 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
2–4% 1–2 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
0–1% 0 |
| 25–26 October 2024 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
2–4% 0 |
0–1% 0 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
6–9% 3–4 |
N/A N/A |
1–3% 0–1 |
4–7% 2–4 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
0–1% 0 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
29–34% 17–20 |
4–6% 2–4 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
30–35% 17–20 |
2–5% 1–3 |
4–6% 2–3 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
2–3% 1–2 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
0–1% 0 |
| 15–18 October 2024 | Opinia24 TVN24 |
2–4% 0 |
0–1% 0 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
5–9% 3–4 |
N/A N/A |
1–3% 0–1 |
3–6% 2–3 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
0–1% 0 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
29–35% 18–20 |
3–5% 2–3 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
31–37% 17–20 |
3–6% 2–3 |
5–7% 3–4 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
2–4% 1–2 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
0–1% 0 |
| 5–6 October 2024 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
2–4% 0 |
0–1% 0 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
5–8% 2–4 |
N/A N/A |
1–3% 0–1 |
4–7% 2–4 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
0–1% 0 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
26–32% 16–19 |
3–6% 2–4 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
29–34% 16–20 |
3–6% 2–3 |
5–8% 2–4 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
2–4% 1–2 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
0–1% 0 |
| 10–18 September 2024 | Ipsos Krytyka Polityczna |
2–4% 0 |
0–1% 0 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
5–8% 2–4 |
N/A N/A |
1–3% 0–1 |
3–6% 2–3 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
0–1% 0 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
25–31% 15–18 |
2–5% 1–3 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
31–37% 17–21 |
4–7% 2–4 |
6–10% 3–5 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
3–5% 1–3 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
0–1% 0 |
| 9 June 2024 | General Election | 0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
Only polls for which at least the sample size has been published are included in the table above.
Legend:
- Top half of each row: Voting intentions (95% confidence interval)
- Bottom half of each row: Seat projections for the European Parliament (95% confidence interval)
- R: Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)
- PZ: Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)
- SLD: Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej (S&D)
- Wi: Wiosna (S&D)
- W–PR: Wiosna–Partia Razem (S&D)
- L: Nowa Lewica (S&D)
- W–PR: Wiosna–Partia Razem (S&D)
- .N: .Nowoczesna (RE)
- P2050: Polska 2050 (RE)
- TD: Trzecia Droga (RE)
- AU–P: AGROunia–Porozumienie (EPP)
- IP: Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)
- KE: Koalicja Europejska (EPP)
- KO: Koalicja Obywatelska (EPP)
- KP: Koalicja Polska (EPP)
- PO: Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)
- PSL: Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)
- P: Porozumienie (EPP)
- PiS: Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (ECR)
- ZP: Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)
- RN: Ruch Narodowy (PfE)
- NN: Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
- K: Kukiz’15 (NI)
- W: KORWiN (NI)
- Konf: Konfederacja (NI)
- KKP: Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)
- BS: Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy (*)
- AU: AGROunia (*)
- T!DPL: Tak! Dla Polski (*)
- PJJ: Polska Jest Jedna (*)
- CP: Centrum dla Polski (*)
- N/A (single party): Party not included the published results
- N/A (entire row): Calculation for this opinion poll not started yet
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.2% | 1.8–3.5% | 1.7–3.7% | 1.5–4.0% |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.6% |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej (S&D) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Wiosna (S&D) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Wiosna–Partia Razem (S&D) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Nowa Lewica (S&D) | 0.0% | 6.8% | 5.8–7.9% | 5.5–8.2% | 5.3–8.5% | 4.9–9.0% |
| Wiosna–Partia Razem (S&D) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| .Nowoczesna (RE) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.3–2.4% | 1.2–2.5% | 1.0–2.7% | 0.9–3.1% |
| Polska 2050 (RE) | 0.0% | 5.2% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.6–6.8% | 3.4–7.1% | 3.0–7.7% |
| Trzecia Droga (RE) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| AGROunia–Porozumienie (EPP) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.6% |
| Koalicja Europejska (EPP) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Koalicja Obywatelska (EPP) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Koalicja Polska (EPP) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) | 0.0% | 30.9% | 27.6–33.8% | 26.9–34.5% | 26.4–35.0% | 25.4–36.2% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) | 0.0% | 4.3% | 3.2–5.5% | 2.9–5.8% | 2.7–6.0% | 2.4–6.6% |
| Porozumienie (EPP) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (ECR) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) | 0.0% | 32.7% | 30.2–35.2% | 29.6–35.8% | 29.1–36.4% | 28.1–37.5% |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0.0% | 4.3% | 3.2–5.8% | 2.9–6.2% | 2.8–6.6% | 2.4–7.2% |
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0.0% | 5.8% | 4.5–7.8% | 4.2–8.4% | 4.0–8.8% | 3.5–9.5% |
| Kukiz’15 (NI) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| KORWiN (NI) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Konfederacja (NI) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.1–3.9% | 1.9–4.3% | 1.7–4.5% | 1.5–5.1% |
| Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy (*) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| AGROunia (*) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Tak! Dla Polski (*) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Polska Jest Jedna (*) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Centrum dla Polski (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–1.1% | 0.2–1.2% | 0.1–1.4% |
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 25% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 74% | 75% | Median |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Lewica (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 6% | 99.9% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 34% | 94% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 43% | 61% | Median |
| 7.5–8.5% | 16% | 18% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 2% | 2% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 0% |
.Nowoczesna (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 31% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 64% | 69% | Median |
| 2.5–3.5% | 5% | 5% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 0% |
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 25% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 74% | 75% | Median |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 0% |
Polska 2050 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 4% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 24% | 96% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 34% | 72% | Median |
| 5.5–6.5% | 29% | 38% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 8% | 9% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 0% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 20% | 98.8% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 39% | 79% | Median |
| 4.5–5.5% | 32% | 40% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 8% | 8% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 0% |
Centrum dla Polski (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 49% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 51% | 51% | Median |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 6% | 97% | |
| 27.5–28.5% | 10% | 91% | |
| 28.5–29.5% | 13% | 80% | |
| 29.5–30.5% | 13% | 68% | |
| 30.5–31.5% | 15% | 54% | Median |
| 31.5–32.5% | 15% | 39% | |
| 32.5–33.5% | 12% | 24% | |
| 33.5–34.5% | 7% | 12% | |
| 34.5–35.5% | 3% | 5% | |
| 35.5–36.5% | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 36.5–37.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 37.5–38.5% | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 49% | 98.9% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 46% | 50% | Median |
| 3.5–4.5% | 3% | 4% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 11% | 99.5% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 30% | 88% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 29% | 59% | Median |
| 6.5–7.5% | 16% | 30% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 10% | 13% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 3% | 4% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 0% |
Ruch Narodowy (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 20% | 99.0% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 39% | 79% | Median |
| 4.5–5.5% | 26% | 40% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 11% | 14% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 2% | 3% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 0% |
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 32% | 99.1% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 48% | 68% | Median |
| 3.5–4.5% | 17% | 20% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 2% | 2% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 0% |
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27.5–28.5% | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 28.5–29.5% | 4% | 99.0% | |
| 29.5–30.5% | 9% | 95% | |
| 30.5–31.5% | 15% | 87% | |
| 31.5–32.5% | 19% | 71% | |
| 32.5–33.5% | 19% | 52% | Median |
| 33.5–34.5% | 16% | 33% | |
| 34.5–35.5% | 10% | 17% | |
| 35.5–36.5% | 5% | 7% | |
| 36.5–37.5% | 2% | 2% | |
| 37.5–38.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 38.5–39.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39.5–40.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej (S&D) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Wiosna (S&D) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Wiosna–Partia Razem (S&D) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Nowa Lewica (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 0–5 |
| Wiosna–Partia Razem (S&D) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| .Nowoczesna (RE) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Polska 2050 (RE) | 0 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Trzecia Droga (RE) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| AGROunia–Porozumienie (EPP) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Koalicja Europejska (EPP) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Koalicja Obywatelska (EPP) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Koalicja Polska (EPP) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) | 0 | 18 | 16–19 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 15–21 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 2–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| Porozumienie (EPP) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (ECR) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) | 0 | 18 | 17–19 | 17–20 | 16–20 | 16–21 |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Kukiz’15 (NI) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| KORWiN (NI) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Konfederacja (NI) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–3 |
| Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy (*) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| AGROunia (*) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Tak! Dla Polski (*) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Polska Jest Jedna (*) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Centrum dla Polski (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej (S&D) page.
Wiosna (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Wiosna (S&D) page.
Wiosna–Partia Razem (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Wiosna–Partia Razem (S&D) page.
Nowa Lewica (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 2 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 3 | 48% | 96% | Median |
| 4 | 48% | 48% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
.Nowoczesna (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 25% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 75% | 75% | Median |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Polska 2050 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 31% | 99.7% | |
| 3 | 56% | 69% | Median |
| 4 | 12% | 13% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Trzecia Droga (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Trzecia Droga (RE) page.
AGROunia–Porozumienie (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the AGROunia–Porozumienie (EPP) page.
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Europejska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Europejska (EPP) page.
Koalicja Obywatelska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Obywatelska (EPP) page.
Koalicja Polska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Polska (EPP) page.
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 13% | 98.8% | |
| 17 | 8% | 86% | |
| 18 | 36% | 78% | Median |
| 19 | 34% | 42% | |
| 20 | 7% | 8% | |
| 21 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 9% | 100% | |
| 2 | 42% | 91% | Median |
| 3 | 35% | 49% | |
| 4 | 14% | 14% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Porozumienie (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Porozumienie (EPP) page.
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (ECR) page.
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 16 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 17 | 26% | 97% | |
| 18 | 26% | 70% | Median |
| 19 | 36% | 44% | |
| 20 | 8% | 9% | |
| 21 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Ruch Narodowy (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 56% | 96% | Median |
| 3 | 38% | 41% | |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 15% | 100% | |
| 3 | 45% | 85% | Median |
| 4 | 32% | 40% | |
| 5 | 8% | 8% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Kukiz’15 (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kukiz’15 (NI) page.
KORWiN (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KORWiN (NI) page.
Konfederacja (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja (NI) page.
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 62% | 99.5% | Median |
| 2 | 36% | 37% | |
| 3 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy (*) page.
AGROunia (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the AGROunia (*) page.
Tak! Dla Polski (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tak! Dla Polski (*) page.
Polska Jest Jedna (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska Jest Jedna (*) page.
Centrum dla Polski (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGROunia–Porozumienie (EPP) – Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) – Koalicja Europejska (EPP) – Koalicja Obywatelska (EPP) – Koalicja Polska (EPP) – Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) – Porozumienie (EPP) | 0 | 21 | 0% | 18–23 | 17–23 | 17–23 | 17–24 |
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (ECR) – Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) | 0 | 18 | 0% | 17–19 | 17–20 | 16–20 | 16–21 |
| .Nowoczesna (RE) – Polska 2050 (RE) – Trzecia Droga (RE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 2–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 2–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Nowa Lewica (S&D) – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej (S&D) – Wiosna (S&D) – Wiosna–Partia Razem (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 0–5 |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| KORWiN (NI) – Konfederacja (NI) – Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) – Kukiz’15 (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–3 |
| AGROunia () – Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy () – Centrum dla Polski () – Polska Jest Jedna () – Tak! Dla Polski (*) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
AGROunia–Porozumienie (EPP) – Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) – Koalicja Europejska (EPP) – Koalicja Obywatelska (EPP) – Koalicja Polska (EPP) – Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) – Porozumienie (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 6% | 92% | |
| 19 | 6% | 86% | |
| 20 | 24% | 80% | Median |
| 21 | 20% | 56% | |
| 22 | 20% | 36% | |
| 23 | 15% | 16% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (ECR) – Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 16 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 17 | 26% | 97% | |
| 18 | 26% | 70% | Median |
| 19 | 36% | 44% | |
| 20 | 8% | 9% | |
| 21 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
.Nowoczesna (RE) – Polska 2050 (RE) – Trzecia Droga (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 11% | 100% | |
| 3 | 30% | 89% | |
| 4 | 48% | 58% | Median |
| 5 | 9% | 10% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 15% | 100% | |
| 3 | 45% | 85% | Median |
| 4 | 32% | 40% | |
| 5 | 8% | 8% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Lewica (S&D) – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej (S&D) – Wiosna (S&D) – Wiosna–Partia Razem (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 2 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 3 | 48% | 96% | Median |
| 4 | 48% | 48% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Ruch Narodowy (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 56% | 96% | Median |
| 3 | 38% | 41% | |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
KORWiN (NI) – Konfederacja (NI) – Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) – Kukiz’15 (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 62% | 99.5% | Median |
| 2 | 36% | 37% | |
| 3 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
AGROunia () – Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy () – Centrum dla Polski () – Polska Jest Jedna () – Tak! Dla Polski (*)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
- Number of polls included in this average: 5
- Lowest number of simulations done in a poll included in this average: 2,097,152
- Total number of simulations done in the polls included in this average: 10,485,760
- Error estimate: 2.85%