Opinion Poll by Dedicated for RTBf–La Libre Belgique, 5–9 September 2014

Areas included: Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 20.3% 21.4% 19.9–22.4% 19.5–22.6% 19.2–22.7% 18.5–22.8%
CD&V 11.6% 11.8% 10.7–12.7% 10.4–12.8% 10.1–12.9% 9.6–13.0%
Open Vld 9.8% 10.3% 9.2–11.0% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.3% 8.3–11.4%
PS 11.7% 10.3% 9.5–10.5% 9.3–10.5% 9.1–10.5% 8.7–10.6%
sp.a 8.8% 10.0% 9.0–10.8% 8.7–10.9% 8.5–11.0% 8.0–11.1%
MR 9.6% 8.9% 8.0–8.8% 7.8–8.9% 7.7–8.9% 7.4–9.0%
Groen 5.3% 6.4% 5.6–7.2% 5.3–7.4% 5.2–7.6% 4.8–7.7%
cdH 5.0% 4.2% 3.6–4.2% 3.5–4.2% 3.4–4.3% 3.2–4.3%
Vlaams Belang 3.7% 3.7% 3.1–4.3% 2.9–4.4% 2.8–4.5% 2.5–4.5%
Ecolo 3.3% 2.8% 2.3–2.9% 2.2–2.9% 2.1–2.9% 2.0–2.9%
PTB 2.0% 2.7% 2.2–2.8% 2.1–2.8% 2.0–2.8% 1.9–2.8%
PVDA 1.8% 2.1% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.7% 1.2–2.7%
Parti Populaire 1.5% 1.7% 1.3–1.8% 1.2–1.8% 1.2–1.8% 1.0–1.8%
DéFI 1.8% 0.6% 0.4–0.7% 0.4–0.7% 0.3–0.7% 0.3–0.7%
Piratenpartij 0.3% 0.5% 0.3–0.7% 0.3–0.8% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.8%
La Droite 0.4% 0.5% 0.4–0.6% 0.3–0.7% 0.3–0.7% 0.2–0.7%
Lijst Dedecker 0.4% 0.4% 0.3–0.6% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.7%
PIRATE 0.2% 0.3% 0.2–0.4% 0.2–0.4% 0.2–0.4% 0.1–0.5%
Wallonie d’Abord 0.2% 0.3% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.3%
Debout les Belges 0.9% 0.3% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.3%
FW 0.1% 0.3% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.3%
R.W.F. 0.1% 0.2% 0.1–0.2% 0.1–0.2% 0.0–0.2% 0.0–0.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 33 31 29–34 29–35 28–35 27–37
CD&V 18 17 14–18 13–19 13–19 13–21
Open Vld 14 13 12–17 12–17 12–18 11–18
PS 23 18 17–21 16–21 16–21 16–21
sp.a 13 13 12–15 12–17 11–17 10–18
MR 20 15 14–18 14–18 14–18 14–19
Groen 6 8 6–10 6–10 5–10 5–12
cdH 9 7 6–7 6–7 5–8 4–8
Vlaams Belang 3 3 2–5 1–6 0–6 0–7
Ecolo 6 4 1–4 1–5 1–5 1–5
PTB 2 3 3 2–4 2–4 2–4
PVDA 0 0 0 0 0 0
Parti Populaire 1 1 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
DéFI 2 0 0 0 0 0
Piratenpartij 0 0 0 0 0 0
La Droite 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lijst Dedecker 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
PIRATE 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wallonie d’Abord 0 0 0 0 0 0
Debout les Belges 0 0 0 0 0 0
FW 0 0 0 0 0 0
R.W.F. 0 0 0 0 0 0

N-VA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.3% 100%  
27 0.6% 99.7%  
28 3% 99.1%  
29 10% 96%  
30 10% 86%  
31 31% 76% Median
32 15% 45%  
33 16% 30% Last Result
34 8% 14%  
35 3% 6%  
36 1.5% 2%  
37 0.8% 0.9%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

CD&V

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 6% 100%  
14 10% 94%  
15 11% 84%  
16 11% 72%  
17 19% 61% Median
18 37% 42% Last Result
19 3% 5%  
20 1.2% 2%  
21 0.8% 0.9%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Open Vld

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100%  
11 2% 99.9%  
12 18% 98%  
13 32% 80% Median
14 13% 49% Last Result
15 7% 36%  
16 10% 29%  
17 16% 19%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

PS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 9% 99.8%  
17 7% 90%  
18 45% 83% Median
19 6% 39%  
20 1.2% 33%  
21 32% 32%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0.1% Last Result
24 0% 0%  

sp.a

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.5% 100%  
10 1.3% 99.5%  
11 3% 98%  
12 6% 95%  
13 48% 89% Last Result, Median
14 15% 41%  
15 17% 26%  
16 4% 9%  
17 5% 5%  
18 0.8% 0.9%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

MR

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.4% 100%  
13 0.1% 99.6%  
14 35% 99.5%  
15 35% 65% Median
16 15% 30%  
17 4% 16%  
18 9% 11%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 3% 100%  
6 29% 97% Last Result
7 6% 68%  
8 32% 62% Median
9 12% 30%  
10 16% 18%  
11 0.9% 2%  
12 1.0% 1.0%  
13 0% 0%  

cdH

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 2% 100%  
5 0.7% 98%  
6 12% 97%  
7 83% 85% Median
8 2% 3%  
9 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 6% 97%  
2 40% 91%  
3 18% 51% Last Result, Median
4 9% 34%  
5 19% 25%  
6 5% 5%  
7 0.6% 0.7%  
8 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 37% 100%  
2 9% 63%  
3 2% 54%  
4 46% 52% Median
5 6% 6%  
6 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
7 0% 0%  

PTB

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 6% 99.8% Last Result
3 87% 94% Median
4 6% 7%  
5 0.3% 0.4%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

PVDA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Parti Populaire

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 47% 94% Last Result, Median
2 47% 47%  
3 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0% Last Result

Piratenpartij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartij page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

La Droite

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La Droite page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Lijst Dedecker

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lijst Dedecker page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 78% 100% Last Result, Median
1 22% 22%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

PIRATE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PIRATE page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Wallonie d’Abord

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Wallonie d’Abord page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Debout les Belges

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout les Belges page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

FW

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the FW page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

R.W.F.

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the R.W.F. page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
CD&V – Open Vld – PS – sp.a – MR – Groen – cdH – Ecolo 109 96 100% 93–99 92–99 92–100 90–101
CD&V – Open Vld – PS – sp.a – MR – cdH 97 85 100% 82–89 81–90 80–90 78–92
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH 94 84 100% 81–88 80–89 80–89 78–91
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR 85 77 80% 74–81 74–82 73–83 71–85
Open Vld – PS – sp.a – MR – Groen – Ecolo 82 72 8% 69–75 69–76 68–77 67–79
CD&V – Open Vld – PS – MR – cdH 84 72 9% 68–75 67–76 66–77 64–78
CD&V – PS – sp.a – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA 77 70 0.6% 66–73 65–73 64–74 62–76
CD&V – PS – sp.a – Groen – cdH – Ecolo 75 67 0% 63–70 62–70 61–71 59–73
CD&V – Open Vld – MR – Groen – cdH – Ecolo 73 63 0% 60–67 59–68 58–69 56–70
Open Vld – PS – sp.a – MR 70 62 0% 58–66 57–67 57–67 56–69
CD&V – PS – sp.a – cdH 63 56 0% 52–59 52–60 51–61 49–62
CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH 61 53 0% 50–56 49–57 48–58 46–59
PS – sp.a – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA 59 53 0% 50–56 49–57 48–57 47–59
PS – sp.a – Groen – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA 50 46 0% 43–49 42–50 41–50 40–52

CD&V – Open Vld – PS – sp.a – MR – Groen – cdH – Ecolo

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.3% 99.9%  
90 0.6% 99.6%  
91 1.0% 99.0%  
92 4% 98%  
93 8% 94%  
94 15% 86%  
95 19% 72% Median
96 18% 53%  
97 14% 35%  
98 9% 21%  
99 7% 12%  
100 3% 5%  
101 0.8% 1.2%  
102 0.3% 0.4%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – Open Vld – PS – sp.a – MR – cdH

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100% Majority
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.3% 99.8%  
79 0.9% 99.5%  
80 3% 98.6%  
81 5% 96%  
82 7% 91%  
83 10% 84% Median
84 15% 74%  
85 13% 59%  
86 12% 46%  
87 11% 34%  
88 11% 23%  
89 6% 12%  
90 4% 6%  
91 1.3% 2%  
92 0.4% 0.7%  
93 0.2% 0.3%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100% Majority
77 0.3% 99.9%  
78 0.7% 99.7%  
79 1.4% 99.0%  
80 3% 98%  
81 6% 95%  
82 10% 89%  
83 14% 78% Median
84 17% 64%  
85 16% 47%  
86 12% 32%  
87 9% 19%  
88 6% 11%  
89 3% 5%  
90 1.4% 2%  
91 0.5% 0.8%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.2% 100%  
71 0.6% 99.7%  
72 1.3% 99.1%  
73 3% 98%  
74 6% 95%  
75 10% 89%  
76 14% 80% Median, Majority
77 16% 65%  
78 15% 49%  
79 12% 34%  
80 9% 22%  
81 6% 13%  
82 4% 7%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.9% 1.4%  
85 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Open Vld – PS – sp.a – MR – Groen – Ecolo

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.3% 99.9%  
67 0.9% 99.6%  
68 3% 98.7%  
69 8% 96%  
70 11% 87%  
71 14% 77% Median
72 16% 63%  
73 16% 47%  
74 14% 31%  
75 9% 18%  
76 5% 8% Majority
77 2% 4%  
78 1.1% 2%  
79 0.5% 0.8%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – Open Vld – PS – MR – cdH

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.6% 99.9%  
65 1.1% 99.4%  
66 2% 98%  
67 3% 96%  
68 5% 93%  
69 13% 87%  
70 11% 75% Median
71 11% 64%  
72 13% 53%  
73 14% 39%  
74 9% 26%  
75 7% 16%  
76 6% 9% Majority
77 2% 3%  
78 0.8% 1.3%  
79 0.4% 0.5%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – PS – sp.a – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.5% 99.8%  
63 1.0% 99.3%  
64 2% 98%  
65 5% 96%  
66 6% 91%  
67 9% 85%  
68 13% 77%  
69 13% 63%  
70 13% 50% Median
71 13% 37%  
72 11% 23%  
73 9% 13%  
74 2% 4%  
75 1.0% 2%  
76 0.4% 0.6% Majority
77 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
78 0% 0%  

CD&V – PS – sp.a – Groen – cdH – Ecolo

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.2% 100%  
59 0.5% 99.8%  
60 1.1% 99.3%  
61 2% 98%  
62 5% 96%  
63 6% 91%  
64 9% 85%  
65 13% 76%  
66 13% 63%  
67 13% 50% Median
68 13% 37%  
69 11% 23%  
70 9% 13%  
71 2% 4%  
72 0.9% 1.5%  
73 0.4% 0.6%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – Open Vld – MR – Groen – cdH – Ecolo

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.9% 99.8%  
57 0.9% 98.9%  
58 2% 98%  
59 4% 96%  
60 5% 92%  
61 12% 87%  
62 12% 75%  
63 15% 63%  
64 14% 47% Median
65 12% 33%  
66 8% 21%  
67 5% 12%  
68 4% 7%  
69 2% 3%  
70 0.9% 1.2%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0% Last Result

Open Vld – PS – sp.a – MR

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 1.4% 99.7%  
57 5% 98%  
58 7% 93%  
59 10% 86% Median
60 9% 76%  
61 13% 67%  
62 14% 54%  
63 14% 40%  
64 8% 27%  
65 7% 19%  
66 7% 12%  
67 4% 5%  
68 0.8% 2%  
69 0.7% 0.9%  
70 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
71 0% 0%  

CD&V – PS – sp.a – cdH

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.4% 99.9%  
50 1.2% 99.4%  
51 3% 98%  
52 6% 95%  
53 9% 89%  
54 11% 81%  
55 14% 69% Median
56 16% 55%  
57 11% 39%  
58 10% 28%  
59 9% 18%  
60 4% 8%  
61 3% 4%  
62 1.0% 1.3%  
63 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.5% 99.9%  
47 1.3% 99.4%  
48 3% 98%  
49 4% 95%  
50 7% 91%  
51 13% 84%  
52 16% 72% Median
53 16% 55%  
54 15% 39%  
55 11% 24%  
56 7% 13%  
57 4% 7%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.7% 1.1%  
60 0.3% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
62 0% 0%  

PS – sp.a – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 1.1% 99.6%  
48 3% 98.5%  
49 4% 96%  
50 7% 91%  
51 15% 84%  
52 13% 69%  
53 18% 56% Median
54 12% 38%  
55 16% 27%  
56 5% 10%  
57 3% 5%  
58 2% 2%  
59 0.5% 0.7% Last Result
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

PS – sp.a – Groen – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.7% 99.7%  
41 2% 99.0%  
42 4% 97%  
43 6% 93%  
44 15% 87%  
45 13% 72%  
46 19% 59% Median
47 12% 40%  
48 16% 28%  
49 6% 12%  
50 3% 6% Last Result
51 2% 2%  
52 0.6% 0.7%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations