PTB
Voting Intentions
Last result: 2.0% (General Election of 25 May 2014)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 3.0% | 2.8–3.1% | 2.8–3.1% | 2.7–3.1% | 2.6–3.2% |
| 6–14 May 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3.4% | 2.8–3.0% | 2.7–3.0% | 2.6–3.0% | 2.5–3.0% |
| 25 March–14 April 2019 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
5.4% | 4.6–4.9% | 4.6–5.0% | 4.5–5.0% | 4.3–5.0% |
| 5–11 February 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3.9% | 3.1–3.4% | 3.1–3.4% | 3.0–3.4% | 2.9–3.4% |
| 13–17 December 2018 | Ipsos Het Nieuwsblad |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19 November–8 December 2018 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
5.1% | 4.4–4.7% | 4.3–4.7% | 4.2–4.7% | 4.1–4.7% |
| 27 November–3 December 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4.5% | 3.7–4.0% | 3.6–4.0% | 3.6–4.0% | 3.4–4.0% |
| 20–27 September 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4.7% | 3.9–4.2% | 3.8–4.2% | 3.8–4.2% | 3.6–4.2% |
| 29 May–6 June 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4.6% | 3.9–4.2% | 3.8–4.2% | 3.7–4.2% | 3.6–4.2% |
| 26 February–17 March 2018 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
3.7% | 3.0–3.3% | 3.0–3.3% | 2.9–3.3% | 2.8–3.3% |
| 27 February–6 March 2018 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
5.9% | 5.0–5.3% | 4.9–5.4% | 4.8–5.4% | 4.7–5.4% |
| 27 November–4 December 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
6.4% | 5.5–5.9% | 5.4–5.9% | 5.3–5.9% | 5.2–5.9% |
| 11 September–5 October 2017 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
5.3% | 4.5–4.8% | 4.4–4.8% | 4.3–4.8% | 4.2–4.8% |
| 25 August–3 September 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
6.1% | 5.2–5.5% | 5.1–5.5% | 5.0–5.5% | 4.8–5.5% |
| 23–27 June 2017 | Dedicated MR |
8.7% | 7.5–8.0% | 7.4–8.0% | 7.2–8.0% | 7.0–8.0% |
| 27 March–11 April 2017 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–20 March 2017 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
1.5% | 1.3–1.4% | 1.2–1.4% | 1.2–1.4% | 1.2–1.4% |
| 16–17 February 2017 | iVox Sudpresse |
17.4% | 15.9–19.0% | 15.5–19.5% | 15.2–19.9% | 14.5–20.6% |
| 10–17 January 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
5.9% | 5.1–5.4% | 5.0–5.4% | 4.9–5.4% | 4.7–5.4% |
| 24–28 November 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
1.0% | 0.8–1.0% | 0.8–1.0% | 0.8–1.0% | 0.7–1.0% |
| 14 September–3 October 2016 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19–25 September 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
5.8% | 5.0–5.3% | 4.9–5.3% | 4.8–5.3% | 4.7–5.3% |
| 2–6 September 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
5.1% | 4.1–4.5% | 4.0–4.5% | 3.9–4.5% | 3.7–4.5% |
| 6–12 May 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
4.7% | 3.9–4.2% | 3.9–4.3% | 3.8–4.3% | 3.7–4.3% |
| 31 March–4 April 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
3.7% | 3.0–3.2% | 2.9–3.3% | 2.9–3.3% | 2.7–3.3% |
| 22 February–9 March 2016 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 15–20 January 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
3.2% | 2.6–2.8% | 2.5–2.9% | 2.5–2.9% | 2.4–2.9% |
| 3–7 December 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
3.4% | 2.9–3.5% | 2.8–3.5% | 2.8–3.5% | 2.6–3.5% |
| 28 September–4 October 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
2.8% | 2.4–2.8% | 2.3–2.9% | 2.2–2.9% | 2.1–2.9% |
| 22 September–2 October 2015 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–14 September 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
3.2% | 2.7–3.2% | 2.5–3.3% | 2.5–3.3% | 2.3–3.3% |
| 12–18 May 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
3.0% | 2.5–3.0% | 2.4–3.0% | 2.3–3.1% | 2.1–3.1% |
| 5 March–9 May 2015 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
5.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20 April–3 May 2015 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20–24 April 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
2.8% | 2.4–2.9% | 2.3–2.9% | 2.2–2.9% | 2.1–2.9% |
| 5–9 March 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
3.0% | 2.3–2.5% | 2.2–2.5% | 2.1–2.5% | 2.0–2.5% |
| 23–28 January 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
2.5% | 2.0–2.5% | 2.0–2.5% | 1.9–2.5% | 1.8–2.5% |
| 5–11 January 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
2.6% | 2.2–2.6% | 2.1–2.6% | 2.0–2.6% | 1.9–2.6% |
| 4–5 December 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 27 November–1 December 2014 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
2.5% | 2.1–2.6% | 2.0–2.6% | 1.9–2.6% | 1.7–2.6% |
| 9–10 October 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 22 September–3 October 2014 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–9 September 2014 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
2.7% | 2.2–2.8% | 2.1–2.8% | 2.0–2.8% | 1.9–2.8% |
| 1–31 July 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for PTB.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2.5–3.5% | 100% | 99.7% | Median |
| 3.5–4.5% | 100% | 0% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 100% | 0% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 100% | 0% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 1.1% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 2 seats (General Election of 25 May 2014)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 7 | 4–10 | 4–10 | 4–10 | 3–11 |
| 6–14 May 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 |
| 25 March–14 April 2019 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
9 | 9–10 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 7–11 |
| 5–11 February 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–8 |
| 13–17 December 2018 | Ipsos Het Nieuwsblad |
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| 19 November–8 December 2018 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–10 |
| 27 November–3 December 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| 20–27 September 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 6–10 | 6–10 |
| 29 May–6 June 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 5–10 |
| 26 February–17 March 2018 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
5 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 |
| 27 February–6 March 2018 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
10 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 8–12 |
| 27 November–4 December 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
11 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–14 |
| 11 September–5 October 2017 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 7–11 |
| 25 August–3 September 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
11 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 9–13 | 9–14 |
| 23–27 June 2017 | Dedicated MR |
17 | 15–20 | 14–20 | 14–20 | 13–21 |
| 27 March–11 April 2017 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
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| 16–20 March 2017 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 16–17 February 2017 | iVox Sudpresse |
9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 7–11 |
| 10–17 January 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
11 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 |
| 24–28 November 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 14 September–3 October 2016 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
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| 19–25 September 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
10 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 |
| 2–6 September 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
9 | 8–9 | 8–10 | 7–10 | 6–11 |
| 6–12 May 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
8 | 7–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 6–10 |
| 31 March–4 April 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
5 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| 22 February–9 March 2016 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
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| 15–20 January 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 3–7 December 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
4 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–7 |
| 28 September–4 October 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 2–6 |
| 22 September–2 October 2015 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
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| 9–14 September 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
4 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 2–6 |
| 12–18 May 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–6 |
| 5 March–9 May 2015 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 20 April–3 May 2015 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
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| 20–24 April 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| 5–9 March 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 2–7 |
| 23–28 January 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| 5–11 January 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| 4–5 December 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
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| 27 November–1 December 2014 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| 9–10 October 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
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| 22 September–3 October 2014 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
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| 5–9 September 2014 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
3 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| 1–31 July 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for PTB.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 4 | 13% | 99.4% | |
| 5 | 33% | 86% | |
| 6 | 4% | 54% | |
| 7 | 0.6% | 50% | Median |
| 8 | 2% | 50% | |
| 9 | 28% | 47% | |
| 10 | 18% | 19% | |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |