MR

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 9.6% (General Election of 25 May 2014)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 6.3% 6.0–6.4% 5.9–6.4% 5.8–6.4% 5.6–6.4%
6–14 May 2019 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 8.1% 7.1–7.5% 7.0–7.5% 7.0–7.5% 6.8–7.5%
25 March–14 April 2019 TNS
De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT		 6.8% 5.9–6.2% 5.8–6.2% 5.7–6.2% 5.6–6.3%
5–11 February 2019 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 7.1% 6.2–6.5% 6.1–6.5% 6.0–6.6% 5.8–6.6%
13–17 December 2018 Ipsos
Het Nieuwsblad		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
19 November–8 December 2018 TNS
De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT		 7.4% 6.5–6.8% 6.4–6.8% 6.3–6.9% 6.1–6.9%
27 November–3 December 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 7.8% 6.8–7.1% 6.7–7.2% 6.6–7.2% 6.4–7.2%
20–27 September 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 7.7% 6.8–7.2% 6.7–7.2% 6.6–7.2% 6.4–7.2%
29 May–6 June 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 7.4% 6.5–6.8% 6.4–6.8% 6.3–6.8% 6.1–6.8%
26 February–17 March 2018 TNS
De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 8.9% 7.9–8.3% 7.8–8.3% 7.7–8.3% 7.6–8.3%
27 February–6 March 2018 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 7.8% 6.9–7.2% 6.8–7.3% 6.7–7.3% 6.5–7.3%
27 November–4 December 2017 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 8.0% 7.0–7.4% 6.9–7.4% 6.9–7.4% 6.7–7.4%
11 September–5 October 2017 TNS
De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 8.1% 7.2–7.5% 7.1–7.5% 7.0–7.6% 6.8–7.6%
25 August–3 September 2017 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 8.1% 7.0–7.4% 6.9–7.4% 6.9–7.4% 6.7–7.5%
23–27 June 2017 Dedicated
MR		 8.7% 7.4–7.9% 7.3–7.9% 7.2–7.9% 7.0–8.0%
27 March–11 April 2017 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
16–20 March 2017 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 2.0% 1.7–1.9% 1.7–1.9% 1.7–1.9% 1.6–1.9%
16–17 February 2017 iVox
Sudpresse		 20.7% 19.1–22.4% 18.7–22.9% 18.3–23.3% 17.6–24.1%
10–17 January 2017 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 7.3% 6.4–6.7% 6.3–6.8% 6.2–6.8% 6.0–6.8%
24–28 November 2016 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 2.1% 1.8–1.9% 1.7–1.9% 1.7–1.9% 1.6–1.9%
14 September–3 October 2016 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
19–25 September 2016 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 8.4% 7.4–7.8% 7.3–7.8% 7.2–7.8% 7.0–7.8%
2–6 September 2016 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 8.7% 7.5–8.0% 7.4–8.0% 7.3–8.0% 7.0–8.0%
6–12 May 2016 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 7.6% 6.7–7.1% 6.6–7.1% 6.5–7.1% 6.3–7.1%
31 March–4 April 2016 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 8.8% 7.8–8.2% 7.7–8.2% 7.6–8.2% 7.5–8.3%
22 February–9 March 2016 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
15–20 January 2016 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 8.7% 7.7–8.0% 7.6–8.1% 7.5–8.1% 7.3–8.1%
3–7 December 2015 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 8.2% 7.5–8.2% 7.3–8.2% 7.2–8.3% 7.0–8.3%
28 September–4 October 2015 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 7.7% 7.1–7.7% 6.9–7.8% 6.8–7.8% 6.6–7.8%
22 September–2 October 2015 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
9–14 September 2015 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 8.1% 7.2–8.1% 7.0–8.1% 6.9–8.1% 6.6–8.1%
12–18 May 2015 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 8.4% 7.6–8.4% 7.4–8.5% 7.3–8.5% 7.0–8.5%
5 March–9 May 2015 Dedicated
La Libre Belgique–RTBf		 22.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
20 April–3 May 2015 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
20–24 April 2015 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 8.7% 7.9–8.6% 7.8–8.7% 7.7–8.7% 7.4–8.7%
5–9 March 2015 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 9.5% 8.3–8.7% 8.1–8.7% 8.0–8.7% 7.8–8.8%
23–28 January 2015 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 8.7% 7.9–8.6% 7.8–8.6% 7.7–8.7% 7.4–8.7%
5–11 January 2015 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 8.4% 7.7–8.4% 7.6–8.4% 7.4–8.4% 7.2–8.4%
4–5 December 2014 AQ Rate
Het Laatste Nieuws		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
27 November–1 December 2014 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 7.9% 7.1–8.0% 7.0–8.0% 6.8–8.0% 6.5–8.0%
9–10 October 2014 AQ Rate
Het Laatste Nieuws		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
22 September–3 October 2014 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5–9 September 2014 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 8.9% 8.0–8.8% 7.8–8.9% 7.7–8.9% 7.4–9.0%
1–31 July 2014 AQ Rate
Het Laatste Nieuws		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for MR.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3.5–4.5% 0% 100%  
4.5–5.5% 0.2% 100%  
5.5–6.5% 100% 99.8% Median
6.5–7.5% 100% 0%  
7.5–8.5% 100% 0%  
8.5–9.5% 92% 0%  
9.5–10.5% 0.4% 0% Last Result

Seats

Last result: 20 seats (General Election of 25 May 2014)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 14 12–16 12–17 12–17 11–18
6–14 May 2019 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 16 14–17 14–17 13–17 12–18
25 March–14 April 2019 TNS
De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT		 13 12–14 12–15 11–15 11–15
5–11 February 2019 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 14 13–16 13–16 13–17 12–17
13–17 December 2018 Ipsos
Het Nieuwsblad		          
19 November–8 December 2018 TNS
De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT		 13 13–15 13–15 12–16 12–16
27 November–3 December 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 16 14–17 13–18 13–18 13–18
20–27 September 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 16 14–17 14–17 13–18 13–19
29 May–6 June 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 15 14–17 13–17 13–18 13–18
26 February–17 March 2018 TNS
De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 17 16–19 16–19 15–19 15–20
27 February–6 March 2018 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 15 14–17 14–17 14–18 14–18
27 November–4 December 2017 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 16 15–19 15–19 15–20 14–20
11 September–5 October 2017 TNS
De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 16 15–17 15–18 14–18 14–19
25 August–3 September 2017 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 17 16–18 15–19 15–19 15–20
23–27 June 2017 Dedicated
MR		 18 16–20 16–20 15–21 14–21
27 March–11 April 2017 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		          
16–20 March 2017 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
16–17 February 2017 iVox
Sudpresse		 13 11–14 11–14 11–14 10–14
10–17 January 2017 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 16 14–17 14–17 13–18 12–18
24–28 November 2016 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
14 September–3 October 2016 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		          
19–25 September 2016 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 18 17–20 17–20 17–21 16–22
2–6 September 2016 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 18 17–19 16–20 15–21 14–22
6–12 May 2016 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 17 15–18 14–19 14–19 14–19
31 March–4 April 2016 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 18 17–19 17–19 17–20 16–20
22 February–9 March 2016 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		          
15–20 January 2016 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 19 18–20 18–21 18–21 17–22
3–7 December 2015 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 14 14–15 13–16 13–16 12–17
28 September–4 October 2015 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 14 14–16 13–16 13–16 13–17
22 September–2 October 2015 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		          
9–14 September 2015 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 14 14–16 13–16 13–17 11–18
12–18 May 2015 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 15 14–17 14–17 14–18 13–19
5 March–9 May 2015 Dedicated
La Libre Belgique–RTBf		 4 4 4 4 4
20 April–3 May 2015 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		          
20–24 April 2015 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 15 14–17 14–18 14–18 14–19
5–9 March 2015 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 20 18–22 18–22 18–23 17–23
23–28 January 2015 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 16 14–17 14–18 14–18 14–19
5–11 January 2015 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 16 14–18 14–18 14–18 14–19
4–5 December 2014 AQ Rate
Het Laatste Nieuws		          
27 November–1 December 2014 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 14 14–16 13–17 13–17 11–18
9–10 October 2014 AQ Rate
Het Laatste Nieuws		          
22 September–3 October 2014 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		          
5–9 September 2014 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 15 14–18 14–18 14–18 14–19
1–31 July 2014 AQ Rate
Het Laatste Nieuws		          

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for MR.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 2% 100%  
12 13% 98%  
13 30% 85%  
14 8% 55% Median
15 15% 47%  
16 24% 32%  
17 7% 7%  
18 0.7% 0.8%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0% Last Result