Opinion Poll by Dedicated for RTBf–La Libre Belgique, 27 November–1 December 2014
Areas included: Flanders, Wallonia
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 20.3% | 20.6% | 19.2–21.7% | 18.8–21.9% | 18.5–22.0% | 17.9–22.1% |
| CD&V | 11.6% | 12.2% | 11.0–13.1% | 10.7–13.3% | 10.4–13.4% | 9.9–13.5% |
| sp.a | 8.8% | 10.1% | 9.0–10.9% | 8.8–11.0% | 8.5–11.1% | 8.1–11.2% |
| PS | 11.7% | 10.0% | 9.1–10.2% | 8.9–10.2% | 8.7–10.2% | 8.4–10.3% |
| Open Vld | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.9–9.7% | 7.6–9.9% | 7.4–10.0% | 7.0–10.1% |
| MR | 9.6% | 7.9% | 7.1–8.0% | 7.0–8.0% | 6.8–8.0% | 6.5–8.0% |
| Groen | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.0–7.7% | 5.7–7.9% | 5.5–8.1% | 5.1–8.2% |
| cdH | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.8–4.5% | 3.7–4.5% | 3.6–4.5% | 3.4–4.6% |
| Vlaams Belang | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.1–4.4% | 3.0–4.5% | 2.8–4.6% | 2.6–4.6% |
| PVDA | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.1–3.2% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.9–3.3% | 1.7–3.4% |
| Ecolo | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.2–2.7% | 2.1–2.8% | 2.0–2.8% | 1.9–2.8% |
| PTB | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.1–2.6% | 2.0–2.6% | 1.9–2.6% | 1.7–2.6% |
| Parti Populaire | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.3–1.7% | 1.2–1.7% | 1.1–1.7% | 1.0–1.8% |
| DéFI | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.7–1.0% | 0.6–1.0% | 0.6–1.0% | 0.5–1.0% |
| Lijst Dedecker | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% |
| Piratenpartij | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3–0.7% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 33 | 31 | 29–33 | 28–34 | 28–35 | 26–37 |
| CD&V | 18 | 18 | 16–19 | 14–20 | 13–20 | 13–22 |
| sp.a | 13 | 14 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 11–17 | 10–18 |
| PS | 23 | 18 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 16–22 | 16–23 |
| Open Vld | 14 | 12 | 11–13 | 11–14 | 10–15 | 9–17 |
| MR | 20 | 14 | 14–16 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 11–18 |
| Groen | 6 | 9 | 7–11 | 6–11 | 6–12 | 6–12 |
| cdH | 9 | 7 | 7–8 | 7–9 | 6–10 | 5–11 |
| Vlaams Belang | 3 | 2 | 2–5 | 1–6 | 1–6 | 0–7 |
| PVDA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ecolo | 6 | 4 | 1–5 | 1–5 | 1–5 | 1–6 |
| PTB | 2 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| Parti Populaire | 1 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| DéFI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lijst Dedecker | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Piratenpartij | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
N-VA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 27 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 28 | 5% | 98% | |
| 29 | 10% | 93% | |
| 30 | 14% | 83% | |
| 31 | 30% | 70% | Median |
| 32 | 19% | 40% | |
| 33 | 14% | 21% | Last Result |
| 34 | 4% | 7% | |
| 35 | 2% | 3% | |
| 36 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 3% | 100% | |
| 14 | 3% | 97% | |
| 15 | 4% | 95% | |
| 16 | 6% | 90% | |
| 17 | 21% | 84% | |
| 18 | 48% | 62% | Last Result, Median |
| 19 | 8% | 14% | |
| 20 | 4% | 6% | |
| 21 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 11 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 12 | 2% | 97% | |
| 13 | 45% | 95% | Last Result |
| 14 | 25% | 51% | Median |
| 15 | 14% | 26% | |
| 16 | 5% | 12% | |
| 17 | 4% | 6% | |
| 18 | 2% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
PS
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 10% | 96% | |
| 18 | 50% | 86% | Median |
| 19 | 16% | 36% | |
| 20 | 9% | 19% | |
| 21 | 6% | 10% | |
| 22 | 4% | 5% | |
| 23 | 0.5% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vld
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 10 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 11 | 21% | 95% | |
| 12 | 44% | 74% | Median |
| 13 | 23% | 31% | |
| 14 | 3% | 8% | Last Result |
| 15 | 3% | 5% | |
| 16 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
MR
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 12 | 1.5% | 99.5% | |
| 13 | 4% | 98% | |
| 14 | 61% | 94% | Median |
| 15 | 13% | 33% | |
| 16 | 11% | 19% | |
| 17 | 6% | 8% | |
| 18 | 2% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 6 | 9% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 7 | 6% | 91% | |
| 8 | 27% | 85% | |
| 9 | 31% | 58% | Median |
| 10 | 15% | 26% | |
| 11 | 7% | 11% | |
| 12 | 4% | 4% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
cdH
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 6 | 1.3% | 98.6% | |
| 7 | 68% | 97% | Median |
| 8 | 23% | 30% | |
| 9 | 3% | 6% | Last Result |
| 10 | 2% | 4% | |
| 11 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 7% | 98% | |
| 2 | 45% | 91% | Median |
| 3 | 9% | 46% | Last Result |
| 4 | 13% | 37% | |
| 5 | 17% | 24% | |
| 6 | 6% | 7% | |
| 7 | 1.4% | 1.5% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
PVDA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11% | 100% | |
| 2 | 21% | 89% | |
| 3 | 12% | 68% | |
| 4 | 36% | 56% | Median |
| 5 | 18% | 19% | |
| 6 | 1.0% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
PTB
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 17% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 3 | 59% | 83% | Median |
| 4 | 22% | 24% | |
| 5 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Populaire
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 27% | 100% | |
| 1 | 30% | 73% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 43% | 43% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lijst Dedecker
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lijst Dedecker page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 53% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 46% | 47% | |
| 2 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartij page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD&V – sp.a – PS – Open Vld – MR – Groen – cdH – Ecolo | 109 | 96 | 100% | 93–99 | 92–100 | 92–101 | 90–102 |
| CD&V – sp.a – PS – Open Vld – MR – cdH | 97 | 84 | 100% | 81–87 | 80–88 | 79–89 | 78–91 |
| N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH | 94 | 83 | 99.9% | 80–86 | 79–87 | 79–87 | 77–89 |
| N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR | 85 | 75 | 46% | 73–78 | 72–79 | 71–80 | 70–81 |
| CD&V – sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PVDA – PTB | 77 | 72 | 11% | 69–76 | 68–76 | 67–77 | 66–79 |
| sp.a – PS – Open Vld – MR – Groen – Ecolo | 82 | 71 | 3% | 68–74 | 68–75 | 67–76 | 65–77 |
| CD&V – PS – Open Vld – MR – cdH | 84 | 70 | 1.4% | 67–73 | 66–74 | 65–75 | 64–76 |
| CD&V – sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo | 75 | 69 | 0.6% | 66–73 | 65–73 | 64–74 | 63–76 |
| CD&V – Open Vld – MR – Groen – cdH – Ecolo | 73 | 64 | 0% | 61–67 | 60–67 | 59–68 | 57–70 |
| sp.a – PS – Open Vld – MR | 70 | 59 | 0% | 56–62 | 56–63 | 55–64 | 54–66 |
| CD&V – sp.a – PS – cdH | 63 | 57 | 0% | 54–60 | 53–61 | 53–62 | 51–64 |
| sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PVDA – PTB | 59 | 55 | 0% | 52–58 | 51–59 | 51–59 | 49–61 |
| CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH | 61 | 51 | 0% | 49–55 | 48–55 | 47–56 | 46–58 |
| sp.a – PS – Groen – Ecolo – PVDA – PTB | 50 | 48 | 0% | 45–51 | 44–51 | 43–52 | 42–53 |
CD&V – sp.a – PS – Open Vld – MR – Groen – cdH – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 91 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 92 | 3% | 98% | |
| 93 | 6% | 94% | |
| 94 | 14% | 88% | |
| 95 | 17% | 75% | |
| 96 | 18% | 58% | Median |
| 97 | 14% | 40% | |
| 98 | 11% | 26% | |
| 99 | 8% | 15% | |
| 100 | 4% | 7% | |
| 101 | 2% | 3% | |
| 102 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – sp.a – PS – Open Vld – MR – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76 | 0.1% | 100% | Majority |
| 77 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 78 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 79 | 2% | 98% | |
| 80 | 4% | 96% | |
| 81 | 10% | 92% | |
| 82 | 13% | 82% | |
| 83 | 13% | 69% | Median |
| 84 | 14% | 56% | |
| 85 | 14% | 41% | |
| 86 | 11% | 28% | |
| 87 | 7% | 17% | |
| 88 | 5% | 9% | |
| 89 | 3% | 5% | |
| 90 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 91 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 77 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 78 | 1.5% | 99.0% | |
| 79 | 3% | 98% | |
| 80 | 8% | 94% | |
| 81 | 16% | 86% | |
| 82 | 18% | 70% | Median |
| 83 | 18% | 52% | |
| 84 | 14% | 35% | |
| 85 | 9% | 20% | |
| 86 | 6% | 11% | |
| 87 | 3% | 5% | |
| 88 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 89 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 69 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 70 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 71 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 72 | 4% | 97% | |
| 73 | 9% | 93% | |
| 74 | 18% | 84% | |
| 75 | 19% | 66% | Median |
| 76 | 19% | 46% | Majority |
| 77 | 14% | 28% | |
| 78 | 7% | 14% | |
| 79 | 4% | 7% | |
| 80 | 2% | 3% | |
| 81 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PVDA – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 67 | 1.5% | 98.9% | |
| 68 | 3% | 97% | |
| 69 | 6% | 95% | |
| 70 | 9% | 89% | |
| 71 | 15% | 80% | |
| 72 | 17% | 65% | |
| 73 | 15% | 48% | Median |
| 74 | 13% | 33% | |
| 75 | 9% | 20% | |
| 76 | 6% | 11% | Majority |
| 77 | 3% | 5% | Last Result |
| 78 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a – PS – Open Vld – MR – Groen – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 67 | 3% | 98% | |
| 68 | 7% | 95% | |
| 69 | 12% | 88% | |
| 70 | 16% | 76% | |
| 71 | 17% | 60% | Median |
| 72 | 15% | 43% | |
| 73 | 12% | 28% | |
| 74 | 8% | 16% | |
| 75 | 5% | 8% | |
| 76 | 2% | 3% | Majority |
| 77 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – PS – Open Vld – MR – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 65 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 66 | 3% | 97% | |
| 67 | 7% | 94% | |
| 68 | 14% | 88% | |
| 69 | 16% | 74% | Median |
| 70 | 17% | 58% | |
| 71 | 15% | 42% | |
| 72 | 12% | 27% | |
| 73 | 8% | 15% | |
| 74 | 4% | 8% | |
| 75 | 2% | 3% | |
| 76 | 0.9% | 1.4% | Majority |
| 77 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 64 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 65 | 3% | 97% | |
| 66 | 6% | 94% | |
| 67 | 10% | 88% | |
| 68 | 15% | 79% | |
| 69 | 17% | 64% | |
| 70 | 15% | 47% | Median |
| 71 | 12% | 32% | |
| 72 | 9% | 19% | |
| 73 | 6% | 10% | |
| 74 | 3% | 5% | |
| 75 | 1.2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 76 | 0.4% | 0.6% | Majority |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld – MR – Groen – cdH – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 58 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 59 | 3% | 98% | |
| 60 | 5% | 95% | |
| 61 | 8% | 91% | |
| 62 | 11% | 83% | |
| 63 | 19% | 72% | |
| 64 | 19% | 53% | Median |
| 65 | 15% | 34% | |
| 66 | 10% | 20% | |
| 67 | 5% | 10% | |
| 68 | 3% | 5% | |
| 69 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
sp.a – PS – Open Vld – MR
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 55 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 56 | 7% | 96% | |
| 57 | 15% | 89% | |
| 58 | 17% | 73% | Median |
| 59 | 16% | 57% | |
| 60 | 14% | 40% | |
| 61 | 11% | 26% | |
| 62 | 7% | 15% | |
| 63 | 4% | 8% | |
| 64 | 2% | 4% | |
| 65 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – sp.a – PS – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 52 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 53 | 3% | 98% | |
| 54 | 6% | 95% | |
| 55 | 12% | 89% | |
| 56 | 17% | 78% | |
| 57 | 16% | 61% | Median |
| 58 | 15% | 45% | |
| 59 | 12% | 29% | |
| 60 | 8% | 18% | |
| 61 | 5% | 10% | |
| 62 | 3% | 5% | |
| 63 | 1.2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 64 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PVDA – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 50 | 1.4% | 99.2% | |
| 51 | 4% | 98% | |
| 52 | 7% | 94% | |
| 53 | 13% | 87% | |
| 54 | 17% | 74% | |
| 55 | 18% | 57% | Median |
| 56 | 15% | 39% | |
| 57 | 11% | 24% | |
| 58 | 7% | 12% | |
| 59 | 4% | 6% | Last Result |
| 60 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 61 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 47 | 2% | 98% | |
| 48 | 3% | 96% | |
| 49 | 7% | 93% | |
| 50 | 20% | 86% | |
| 51 | 18% | 66% | Median |
| 52 | 17% | 48% | |
| 53 | 12% | 31% | |
| 54 | 9% | 19% | |
| 55 | 5% | 10% | |
| 56 | 3% | 5% | |
| 57 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
sp.a – PS – Groen – Ecolo – PVDA – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 43 | 3% | 98% | |
| 44 | 5% | 96% | |
| 45 | 9% | 90% | |
| 46 | 14% | 81% | |
| 47 | 17% | 68% | |
| 48 | 17% | 51% | Median |
| 49 | 14% | 34% | |
| 50 | 10% | 20% | Last Result |
| 51 | 6% | 10% | |
| 52 | 3% | 4% | |
| 53 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Dedicated
- Commissioner(s): RTBf–La Libre Belgique
- Fieldwork period: 27 November–1 December 2014
Calculations
- Sample size: 1158
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.00%