Opinion Poll by Ipsos for RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws, 5–11 January 2015
Areas included: Flanders, Wallonia
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
N-VA |
20.3% |
18.6% |
17.4–19.4% |
17.1–19.5% |
16.8–19.6% |
16.3–19.7% |
CD&V |
11.6% |
12.2% |
11.2–13.0% |
10.9–13.1% |
10.7–13.2% |
10.3–13.3% |
sp.a |
8.8% |
10.5% |
9.5–11.2% |
9.3–11.3% |
9.1–11.4% |
8.7–11.4% |
PS |
11.7% |
10.0% |
9.3–10.1% |
9.2–10.2% |
9.0–10.2% |
8.7–10.2% |
Open Vld |
9.8% |
9.5% |
8.7–10.2% |
8.4–10.3% |
8.2–10.4% |
7.8–10.4% |
MR |
9.6% |
8.4% |
7.7–8.4% |
7.6–8.4% |
7.4–8.4% |
7.2–8.4% |
Groen |
5.3% |
6.9% |
6.1–7.7% |
5.9–7.9% |
5.8–8.0% |
5.4–8.1% |
Vlaams Belang |
3.7% |
4.5% |
3.9–5.1% |
3.8–5.2% |
3.6–5.3% |
3.3–5.4% |
cdH |
5.0% |
4.2% |
3.7–4.2% |
3.6–4.2% |
3.5–4.2% |
3.3–4.2% |
PVDA |
1.8% |
2.6% |
2.1–3.0% |
2.0–3.0% |
1.9–3.1% |
1.7–3.1% |
Ecolo |
3.3% |
2.6% |
2.2–2.6% |
2.1–2.6% |
2.0–2.7% |
1.9–2.7% |
PTB |
2.0% |
2.6% |
2.2–2.6% |
2.1–2.6% |
2.0–2.6% |
1.9–2.6% |
Parti Populaire |
1.5% |
1.2% |
0.9–1.2% |
0.9–1.3% |
0.8–1.3% |
0.7–1.3% |
DéFI |
1.8% |
0.7% |
0.5–0.8% |
0.5–0.8% |
0.4–0.8% |
0.4–0.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Median |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
N-VA |
33 |
28 |
26–30 |
25–31 |
25–31 |
24–32 |
CD&V |
18 |
18 |
16–19 |
15–19 |
14–20 |
13–22 |
sp.a |
13 |
14 |
13–17 |
13–17 |
13–18 |
12–18 |
PS |
23 |
18 |
18–21 |
18–22 |
17–22 |
17–22 |
Open Vld |
14 |
13 |
12–14 |
11–15 |
11–16 |
11–17 |
MR |
20 |
16 |
14–18 |
14–18 |
14–18 |
14–19 |
Groen |
6 |
9 |
7–11 |
7–12 |
6–12 |
6–12 |
Vlaams Belang |
3 |
5 |
3–7 |
3–7 |
2–8 |
2–8 |
cdH |
9 |
7 |
7–8 |
7–8 |
6–8 |
5–9 |
PVDA |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Ecolo |
6 |
3 |
2–5 |
1–5 |
1–5 |
1–5 |
PTB |
2 |
3 |
3–4 |
2–4 |
2–4 |
2–5 |
Parti Populaire |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–2 |
DéFI |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
N-VA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
24 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
25 |
5% |
98% |
|
26 |
23% |
94% |
|
27 |
17% |
70% |
|
28 |
19% |
53% |
Median |
29 |
17% |
35% |
|
30 |
10% |
17% |
|
31 |
6% |
7% |
|
32 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
33 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
CD&V
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
2% |
98.9% |
|
15 |
4% |
97% |
|
16 |
6% |
93% |
|
17 |
12% |
87% |
|
18 |
60% |
75% |
Last Result, Median |
19 |
11% |
16% |
|
20 |
3% |
4% |
|
21 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
22 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
sp.a
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
12 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
13 |
39% |
99.4% |
Last Result |
14 |
15% |
61% |
Median |
15 |
20% |
46% |
|
16 |
15% |
26% |
|
17 |
8% |
11% |
|
18 |
3% |
3% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
PS
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
17 |
4% |
99.7% |
|
18 |
60% |
96% |
Median |
19 |
13% |
36% |
|
20 |
12% |
23% |
|
21 |
5% |
11% |
|
22 |
6% |
6% |
|
23 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Open Vld
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
11 |
6% |
99.8% |
|
12 |
29% |
93% |
|
13 |
47% |
65% |
Median |
14 |
9% |
18% |
Last Result |
15 |
4% |
8% |
|
16 |
2% |
4% |
|
17 |
2% |
2% |
|
18 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
MR
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
26% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
14% |
74% |
|
16 |
24% |
60% |
Median |
17 |
25% |
36% |
|
18 |
10% |
11% |
|
19 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
5% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
7 |
8% |
95% |
|
8 |
27% |
87% |
|
9 |
28% |
60% |
Median |
10 |
19% |
32% |
|
11 |
7% |
13% |
|
12 |
6% |
6% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
2 |
5% |
99.9% |
|
3 |
9% |
95% |
Last Result |
4 |
6% |
86% |
|
5 |
40% |
80% |
Median |
6 |
23% |
40% |
|
7 |
14% |
17% |
|
8 |
3% |
3% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
cdH
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
5 |
0.8% |
99.5% |
|
6 |
2% |
98.8% |
|
7 |
81% |
97% |
Median |
8 |
16% |
16% |
|
9 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
Last Result |
10 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
PVDA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
10% |
100% |
|
2 |
29% |
90% |
|
3 |
15% |
61% |
Median |
4 |
34% |
46% |
|
5 |
12% |
12% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
PTB
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
6% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
75% |
94% |
Median |
4 |
18% |
19% |
|
5 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
6 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Parti Populaire
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
91% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
8% |
9% |
Last Result |
2 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
CD&V – sp.a – PS – Open Vld – MR – Groen – cdH – Ecolo |
109 |
99 |
100% |
96–101 |
95–102 |
95–102 |
94–104 |
CD&V – sp.a – PS – Open Vld – MR – cdH |
97 |
87 |
100% |
84–90 |
83–91 |
82–91 |
81–93 |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH |
94 |
81 |
99.3% |
78–84 |
77–85 |
77–86 |
75–87 |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR |
85 |
74 |
31% |
71–77 |
70–78 |
69–79 |
68–80 |
sp.a – PS – Open Vld – MR – Groen – Ecolo |
82 |
74 |
25% |
71–77 |
71–77 |
70–78 |
69–80 |
CD&V – sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA |
77 |
73 |
18% |
70–76 |
69–77 |
69–78 |
67–79 |
CD&V – PS – Open Vld – MR – cdH |
84 |
72 |
6% |
70–75 |
69–76 |
68–76 |
67–78 |
CD&V – sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo |
75 |
70 |
0.8% |
67–73 |
66–74 |
66–75 |
64–76 |
CD&V – Open Vld – MR – Groen – cdH – Ecolo |
73 |
66 |
0% |
63–68 |
62–69 |
61–70 |
59–71 |
sp.a – PS – Open Vld – MR |
70 |
62 |
0% |
59–65 |
58–66 |
58–66 |
57–68 |
CD&V – sp.a – PS – cdH |
63 |
58 |
0% |
55–61 |
55–62 |
54–63 |
53–64 |
sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA |
59 |
55 |
0% |
53–59 |
52–59 |
51–60 |
50–61 |
CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH |
61 |
54 |
0% |
51–56 |
50–57 |
49–58 |
48–59 |
sp.a – PS – Groen – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA |
50 |
48 |
0% |
45–51 |
45–52 |
44–53 |
43–54 |
CD&V – sp.a – PS – Open Vld – MR – Groen – cdH – Ecolo
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
93 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
94 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
95 |
4% |
98.8% |
|
96 |
10% |
95% |
|
97 |
13% |
85% |
|
98 |
15% |
72% |
Median |
99 |
17% |
57% |
|
100 |
18% |
40% |
|
101 |
15% |
22% |
|
102 |
5% |
8% |
|
103 |
2% |
2% |
|
104 |
0.6% |
0.8% |
|
105 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
106 |
0% |
0% |
|
107 |
0% |
0% |
|
108 |
0% |
0% |
|
109 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
CD&V – sp.a – PS – Open Vld – MR – cdH
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
79 |
0% |
100% |
|
80 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
81 |
0.8% |
99.8% |
|
82 |
2% |
99.0% |
|
83 |
5% |
97% |
|
84 |
9% |
91% |
|
85 |
13% |
82% |
|
86 |
15% |
70% |
Median |
87 |
16% |
55% |
|
88 |
15% |
39% |
|
89 |
11% |
24% |
|
90 |
8% |
13% |
|
91 |
3% |
5% |
|
92 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
93 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
94 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
95 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
96 |
0% |
0% |
|
97 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
74 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
75 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
76 |
2% |
99.3% |
Majority |
77 |
4% |
98% |
|
78 |
7% |
94% |
|
79 |
10% |
87% |
|
80 |
13% |
77% |
|
81 |
16% |
64% |
|
82 |
15% |
48% |
Median |
83 |
13% |
33% |
|
84 |
10% |
20% |
|
85 |
6% |
10% |
|
86 |
3% |
4% |
|
87 |
0.7% |
1.1% |
|
88 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
89 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
90 |
0% |
0% |
|
91 |
0% |
0% |
|
92 |
0% |
0% |
|
93 |
0% |
0% |
|
94 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
67 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
68 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
69 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
70 |
4% |
97% |
|
71 |
7% |
93% |
|
72 |
10% |
86% |
|
73 |
14% |
76% |
|
74 |
16% |
62% |
|
75 |
15% |
46% |
Median |
76 |
13% |
31% |
Majority |
77 |
10% |
18% |
|
78 |
5% |
8% |
|
79 |
2% |
3% |
|
80 |
0.6% |
0.9% |
|
81 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
82 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
83 |
0% |
0% |
|
84 |
0% |
0% |
|
85 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
sp.a – PS – Open Vld – MR – Groen – Ecolo
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
68 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
69 |
1.0% |
99.7% |
|
70 |
3% |
98.8% |
|
71 |
8% |
95% |
|
72 |
13% |
87% |
|
73 |
16% |
74% |
Median |
74 |
17% |
58% |
|
75 |
16% |
41% |
|
76 |
14% |
25% |
Majority |
77 |
7% |
11% |
|
78 |
3% |
4% |
|
79 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
80 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
81 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
82 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
CD&V – sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
66 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
67 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
68 |
1.3% |
99.4% |
|
69 |
4% |
98% |
|
70 |
8% |
94% |
|
71 |
11% |
87% |
|
72 |
14% |
75% |
Median |
73 |
16% |
62% |
|
74 |
15% |
45% |
|
75 |
12% |
30% |
|
76 |
9% |
18% |
Majority |
77 |
5% |
9% |
Last Result |
78 |
3% |
4% |
|
79 |
0.8% |
1.0% |
|
80 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
81 |
0% |
0% |
|
CD&V – PS – Open Vld – MR – cdH
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
65 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
66 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
67 |
0.9% |
99.6% |
|
68 |
2% |
98.7% |
|
69 |
5% |
97% |
|
70 |
10% |
92% |
|
71 |
16% |
82% |
|
72 |
19% |
65% |
Median |
73 |
18% |
46% |
|
74 |
14% |
28% |
|
75 |
8% |
14% |
|
76 |
3% |
6% |
Majority |
77 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
78 |
0.6% |
0.8% |
|
79 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
80 |
0% |
0% |
|
81 |
0% |
0% |
|
82 |
0% |
0% |
|
83 |
0% |
0% |
|
84 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
CD&V – sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
62 |
0% |
100% |
|
63 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
64 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
65 |
2% |
99.3% |
|
66 |
4% |
98% |
|
67 |
8% |
94% |
|
68 |
12% |
85% |
|
69 |
14% |
74% |
Median |
70 |
16% |
59% |
|
71 |
15% |
43% |
|
72 |
12% |
28% |
|
73 |
8% |
16% |
|
74 |
5% |
8% |
|
75 |
2% |
3% |
Last Result |
76 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
Majority |
77 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
|
CD&V – Open Vld – MR – Groen – cdH – Ecolo
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
57 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
58 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
59 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
60 |
1.0% |
99.4% |
|
61 |
3% |
98% |
|
62 |
4% |
96% |
|
63 |
8% |
91% |
|
64 |
12% |
84% |
|
65 |
18% |
72% |
|
66 |
17% |
53% |
Median |
67 |
16% |
36% |
|
68 |
11% |
21% |
|
69 |
7% |
9% |
|
70 |
2% |
3% |
|
71 |
0.6% |
0.8% |
|
72 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
sp.a – PS – Open Vld – MR
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
56 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
57 |
1.1% |
99.8% |
|
58 |
4% |
98.7% |
|
59 |
9% |
95% |
|
60 |
14% |
86% |
|
61 |
16% |
72% |
Median |
62 |
17% |
56% |
|
63 |
15% |
39% |
|
64 |
11% |
24% |
|
65 |
7% |
13% |
|
66 |
3% |
5% |
|
67 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
68 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
69 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
70 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
CD&V – sp.a – PS – cdH
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
51 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
52 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
53 |
1.2% |
99.6% |
|
54 |
3% |
98% |
|
55 |
6% |
96% |
|
56 |
17% |
89% |
|
57 |
16% |
73% |
Median |
58 |
16% |
57% |
|
59 |
16% |
41% |
|
60 |
12% |
25% |
|
61 |
7% |
13% |
|
62 |
3% |
7% |
|
63 |
2% |
3% |
Last Result |
64 |
0.8% |
1.1% |
|
65 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
66 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
49 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
50 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
51 |
3% |
99.3% |
|
52 |
7% |
97% |
|
53 |
11% |
90% |
|
54 |
14% |
79% |
Median |
55 |
17% |
66% |
|
56 |
15% |
49% |
|
57 |
13% |
33% |
|
58 |
10% |
20% |
|
59 |
6% |
10% |
Last Result |
60 |
3% |
5% |
|
61 |
1.2% |
1.4% |
|
62 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
63 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
46 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
47 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
48 |
0.7% |
99.7% |
|
49 |
2% |
98.9% |
|
50 |
4% |
97% |
|
51 |
9% |
93% |
|
52 |
15% |
84% |
|
53 |
17% |
69% |
|
54 |
17% |
52% |
Median |
55 |
15% |
34% |
|
56 |
11% |
19% |
|
57 |
5% |
8% |
|
58 |
2% |
3% |
|
59 |
0.8% |
1.2% |
|
60 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
61 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
sp.a – PS – Groen – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
42 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
43 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
44 |
4% |
99.2% |
|
45 |
7% |
95% |
|
46 |
11% |
89% |
|
47 |
14% |
77% |
Median |
48 |
16% |
63% |
|
49 |
15% |
47% |
|
50 |
13% |
32% |
Last Result |
51 |
9% |
19% |
|
52 |
5% |
10% |
|
53 |
3% |
4% |
|
54 |
1.1% |
1.4% |
|
55 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
56 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws
- Fieldwork period: 5–11 January 2015
Calculations
- Sample size: 1561
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.66%