Opinion Poll by Ipsos for RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws, 5–11 January 2015

Areas included: Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 20.3% 18.6% 17.4–19.4% 17.1–19.5% 16.8–19.6% 16.3–19.7%
CD&V 11.6% 12.2% 11.2–13.0% 10.9–13.1% 10.7–13.2% 10.3–13.3%
sp.a 8.8% 10.5% 9.5–11.2% 9.3–11.3% 9.1–11.4% 8.7–11.4%
PS 11.7% 10.0% 9.3–10.1% 9.2–10.2% 9.0–10.2% 8.7–10.2%
Open Vld 9.8% 9.5% 8.7–10.2% 8.4–10.3% 8.2–10.4% 7.8–10.4%
MR 9.6% 8.4% 7.7–8.4% 7.6–8.4% 7.4–8.4% 7.2–8.4%
Groen 5.3% 6.9% 6.1–7.7% 5.9–7.9% 5.8–8.0% 5.4–8.1%
Vlaams Belang 3.7% 4.5% 3.9–5.1% 3.8–5.2% 3.6–5.3% 3.3–5.4%
cdH 5.0% 4.2% 3.7–4.2% 3.6–4.2% 3.5–4.2% 3.3–4.2%
PVDA 1.8% 2.6% 2.1–3.0% 2.0–3.0% 1.9–3.1% 1.7–3.1%
Ecolo 3.3% 2.6% 2.2–2.6% 2.1–2.6% 2.0–2.7% 1.9–2.7%
PTB 2.0% 2.6% 2.2–2.6% 2.1–2.6% 2.0–2.6% 1.9–2.6%
Parti Populaire 1.5% 1.2% 0.9–1.2% 0.9–1.3% 0.8–1.3% 0.7–1.3%
DéFI 1.8% 0.7% 0.5–0.8% 0.5–0.8% 0.4–0.8% 0.4–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 33 28 26–30 25–31 25–31 24–32
CD&V 18 18 16–19 15–19 14–20 13–22
sp.a 13 14 13–17 13–17 13–18 12–18
PS 23 18 18–21 18–22 17–22 17–22
Open Vld 14 13 12–14 11–15 11–16 11–17
MR 20 16 14–18 14–18 14–18 14–19
Groen 6 9 7–11 7–12 6–12 6–12
Vlaams Belang 3 5 3–7 3–7 2–8 2–8
cdH 9 7 7–8 7–8 6–8 5–9
PVDA 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ecolo 6 3 2–5 1–5 1–5 1–5
PTB 2 3 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–5
Parti Populaire 1 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–2
DéFI 2 0 0 0 0 0

N-VA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100%  
24 2% 99.7%  
25 5% 98%  
26 23% 94%  
27 17% 70%  
28 19% 53% Median
29 17% 35%  
30 10% 17%  
31 6% 7%  
32 0.6% 0.7%  
33 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

CD&V

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 1.1% 100%  
14 2% 98.9%  
15 4% 97%  
16 6% 93%  
17 12% 87%  
18 60% 75% Last Result, Median
19 11% 16%  
20 3% 4%  
21 1.2% 2%  
22 0.6% 0.6%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

sp.a

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.4% 99.8%  
13 39% 99.4% Last Result
14 15% 61% Median
15 20% 46%  
16 15% 26%  
17 8% 11%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

PS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.3% 100%  
17 4% 99.7%  
18 60% 96% Median
19 13% 36%  
20 12% 23%  
21 5% 11%  
22 6% 6%  
23 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
24 0% 0%  

Open Vld

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 6% 99.8%  
12 29% 93%  
13 47% 65% Median
14 9% 18% Last Result
15 4% 8%  
16 2% 4%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.3% 0.3%  
19 0% 0%  

MR

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 26% 99.9%  
15 14% 74%  
16 24% 60% Median
17 25% 36%  
18 10% 11%  
19 0.8% 0.9%  
20 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
21 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 5% 99.9% Last Result
7 8% 95%  
8 27% 87%  
9 28% 60% Median
10 19% 32%  
11 7% 13%  
12 6% 6%  
13 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 5% 99.9%  
3 9% 95% Last Result
4 6% 86%  
5 40% 80% Median
6 23% 40%  
7 14% 17%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0% 0%  

cdH

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.5% 100%  
5 0.8% 99.5%  
6 2% 98.8%  
7 81% 97% Median
8 16% 16%  
9 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

PVDA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 10% 100%  
2 29% 90%  
3 15% 61% Median
4 34% 46%  
5 12% 12%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

PTB

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 6% 100% Last Result
3 75% 94% Median
4 18% 19%  
5 0.6% 0.7%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Parti Populaire

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Median
1 8% 9% Last Result
2 0.9% 0.9%  
3 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
CD&V – sp.a – PS – Open Vld – MR – Groen – cdH – Ecolo 109 99 100% 96–101 95–102 95–102 94–104
CD&V – sp.a – PS – Open Vld – MR – cdH 97 87 100% 84–90 83–91 82–91 81–93
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH 94 81 99.3% 78–84 77–85 77–86 75–87
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR 85 74 31% 71–77 70–78 69–79 68–80
sp.a – PS – Open Vld – MR – Groen – Ecolo 82 74 25% 71–77 71–77 70–78 69–80
CD&V – sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA 77 73 18% 70–76 69–77 69–78 67–79
CD&V – PS – Open Vld – MR – cdH 84 72 6% 70–75 69–76 68–76 67–78
CD&V – sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo 75 70 0.8% 67–73 66–74 66–75 64–76
CD&V – Open Vld – MR – Groen – cdH – Ecolo 73 66 0% 63–68 62–69 61–70 59–71
sp.a – PS – Open Vld – MR 70 62 0% 59–65 58–66 58–66 57–68
CD&V – sp.a – PS – cdH 63 58 0% 55–61 55–62 54–63 53–64
sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA 59 55 0% 53–59 52–59 51–60 50–61
CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH 61 54 0% 51–56 50–57 49–58 48–59
sp.a – PS – Groen – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA 50 48 0% 45–51 45–52 44–53 43–54

CD&V – sp.a – PS – Open Vld – MR – Groen – cdH – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.2% 100%  
94 1.0% 99.8%  
95 4% 98.8%  
96 10% 95%  
97 13% 85%  
98 15% 72% Median
99 17% 57%  
100 18% 40%  
101 15% 22%  
102 5% 8%  
103 2% 2%  
104 0.6% 0.8%  
105 0.2% 0.2%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – sp.a – PS – Open Vld – MR – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.2% 99.9%  
81 0.8% 99.8%  
82 2% 99.0%  
83 5% 97%  
84 9% 91%  
85 13% 82%  
86 15% 70% Median
87 16% 55%  
88 15% 39%  
89 11% 24%  
90 8% 13%  
91 3% 5%  
92 1.1% 2%  
93 0.4% 0.6%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.2% 100%  
75 0.6% 99.8%  
76 2% 99.3% Majority
77 4% 98%  
78 7% 94%  
79 10% 87%  
80 13% 77%  
81 16% 64%  
82 15% 48% Median
83 13% 33%  
84 10% 20%  
85 6% 10%  
86 3% 4%  
87 0.7% 1.1%  
88 0.3% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.2% 100%  
68 0.6% 99.8%  
69 2% 99.2%  
70 4% 97%  
71 7% 93%  
72 10% 86%  
73 14% 76%  
74 16% 62%  
75 15% 46% Median
76 13% 31% Majority
77 10% 18%  
78 5% 8%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.6% 0.9%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

sp.a – PS – Open Vld – MR – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.2% 100%  
69 1.0% 99.7%  
70 3% 98.8%  
71 8% 95%  
72 13% 87%  
73 16% 74% Median
74 17% 58%  
75 16% 41%  
76 14% 25% Majority
77 7% 11%  
78 3% 4%  
79 1.0% 2%  
80 0.4% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.4% 99.8%  
68 1.3% 99.4%  
69 4% 98%  
70 8% 94%  
71 11% 87%  
72 14% 75% Median
73 16% 62%  
74 15% 45%  
75 12% 30%  
76 9% 18% Majority
77 5% 9% Last Result
78 3% 4%  
79 0.8% 1.0%  
80 0.2% 0.2%  
81 0% 0%  

CD&V – PS – Open Vld – MR – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.3% 99.9%  
67 0.9% 99.6%  
68 2% 98.7%  
69 5% 97%  
70 10% 92%  
71 16% 82%  
72 19% 65% Median
73 18% 46%  
74 14% 28%  
75 8% 14%  
76 3% 6% Majority
77 1.3% 2%  
78 0.6% 0.8%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.5% 99.8%  
65 2% 99.3%  
66 4% 98%  
67 8% 94%  
68 12% 85%  
69 14% 74% Median
70 16% 59%  
71 15% 43%  
72 12% 28%  
73 8% 16%  
74 5% 8%  
75 2% 3% Last Result
76 0.7% 0.8% Majority
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  

CD&V – Open Vld – MR – Groen – cdH – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.4% 99.8%  
60 1.0% 99.4%  
61 3% 98%  
62 4% 96%  
63 8% 91%  
64 12% 84%  
65 18% 72%  
66 17% 53% Median
67 16% 36%  
68 11% 21%  
69 7% 9%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.6% 0.8%  
72 0.2% 0.2%  
73 0% 0% Last Result

sp.a – PS – Open Vld – MR

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 1.1% 99.8%  
58 4% 98.7%  
59 9% 95%  
60 14% 86%  
61 16% 72% Median
62 17% 56%  
63 15% 39%  
64 11% 24%  
65 7% 13%  
66 3% 5%  
67 1.2% 2%  
68 0.4% 0.7%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
71 0% 0%  

CD&V – sp.a – PS – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 1.2% 99.6%  
54 3% 98%  
55 6% 96%  
56 17% 89%  
57 16% 73% Median
58 16% 57%  
59 16% 41%  
60 12% 25%  
61 7% 13%  
62 3% 7%  
63 2% 3% Last Result
64 0.8% 1.1%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.6% 99.8%  
51 3% 99.3%  
52 7% 97%  
53 11% 90%  
54 14% 79% Median
55 17% 66%  
56 15% 49%  
57 13% 33%  
58 10% 20%  
59 6% 10% Last Result
60 3% 5%  
61 1.2% 1.4%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 0.7% 99.7%  
49 2% 98.9%  
50 4% 97%  
51 9% 93%  
52 15% 84%  
53 17% 69%  
54 17% 52% Median
55 15% 34%  
56 11% 19%  
57 5% 8%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.8% 1.2%  
60 0.3% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
62 0% 0%  

sp.a – PS – Groen – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.2% 100%  
43 0.6% 99.8%  
44 4% 99.2%  
45 7% 95%  
46 11% 89%  
47 14% 77% Median
48 16% 63%  
49 15% 47%  
50 13% 32% Last Result
51 9% 19%  
52 5% 10%  
53 3% 4%  
54 1.1% 1.4%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations