Opinion Poll by Ipsos for RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws, 23–28 January 2015

Areas included: Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 20.3% 20.2% 18.9–21.0% 18.6–21.2% 18.3–21.3% 17.8–21.4%
CD&V 11.6% 11.4% 10.4–12.1% 10.2–12.3% 9.9–12.4% 9.5–12.4%
Open Vld 9.8% 9.9% 9.0–10.6% 8.8–10.7% 8.6–10.8% 8.2–10.8%
sp.a 8.8% 9.8% 8.9–10.4% 8.7–10.6% 8.5–10.6% 8.0–10.7%
PS 11.7% 9.1% 8.4–9.2% 8.3–9.3% 8.1–9.3% 7.9–9.3%
MR 9.6% 8.7% 7.9–8.6% 7.8–8.6% 7.7–8.7% 7.4–8.7%
Groen 5.3% 6.8% 6.1–7.6% 5.9–7.8% 5.7–7.9% 5.4–8.0%
Vlaams Belang 3.7% 5.1% 4.4–5.7% 4.2–5.8% 4.1–5.9% 3.8–6.0%
cdH 5.0% 4.6% 4.1–4.7% 4.0–4.7% 3.9–4.8% 3.7–4.8%
Ecolo 3.3% 2.8% 2.4–2.8% 2.3–2.9% 2.2–2.9% 2.1–2.9%
PTB 2.0% 2.5% 2.0–2.5% 2.0–2.5% 1.9–2.5% 1.8–2.5%
PVDA 1.8% 2.4% 1.9–2.8% 1.8–2.9% 1.7–2.9% 1.5–2.9%
Parti Populaire 1.5% 1.5% 1.3–1.6% 1.2–1.6% 1.2–1.7% 1.1–1.7%
DéFI 1.8% 0.7% 0.6–0.8% 0.5–0.8% 0.5–0.8% 0.4–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 33 30 28–32 27–32 27–33 26–34
CD&V 18 16 13–18 13–18 13–18 13–19
Open Vld 14 13 12–15 12–16 11–17 11–18
sp.a 13 13 13–15 12–15 11–16 10–17
PS 23 17 16–18 16–18 16–18 15–19
MR 20 16 14–17 14–18 14–18 14–19
Groen 6 8 7–10 6–11 6–11 6–12
Vlaams Belang 3 6 5–8 5–8 4–8 2–8
cdH 9 7 7–8 7–9 7–10 7–11
Ecolo 6 4 2–5 2–5 2–5 1–6
PTB 2 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
PVDA 0 0 0 0 0 0
Parti Populaire 1 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
DéFI 2 0 0 0 0 0

N-VA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.9%  
26 2% 99.7%  
27 5% 98%  
28 13% 93%  
29 23% 80%  
30 20% 57% Median
31 26% 38%  
32 8% 12%  
33 3% 4% Last Result
34 1.1% 1.4%  
35 0.3% 0.3%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

CD&V

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 11% 100%  
14 12% 89%  
15 15% 77%  
16 18% 62% Median
17 16% 43%  
18 26% 27% Last Result
19 0.8% 1.0%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Open Vld

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 4% 100%  
12 25% 96%  
13 49% 71% Median
14 9% 22% Last Result
15 6% 13%  
16 3% 8%  
17 4% 4%  
18 0.6% 0.7%  
19 0% 0%  

sp.a

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100%  
10 1.3% 99.7%  
11 2% 98%  
12 6% 96%  
13 65% 90% Last Result, Median
14 11% 25%  
15 11% 14%  
16 2% 3%  
17 1.0% 1.2%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

PS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 1.0% 100%  
16 22% 98.9%  
17 31% 77% Median
18 44% 46%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.4% 0.4%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

MR

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.4% 100%  
14 10% 99.6%  
15 26% 90%  
16 37% 64% Median
17 21% 27%  
18 5% 6%  
19 0.9% 1.0%  
20 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
21 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.4% 100%  
6 8% 99.6% Last Result
7 7% 91%  
8 39% 85% Median
9 19% 46%  
10 19% 26%  
11 5% 8%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.7% 100%  
3 1.1% 99.3% Last Result
4 2% 98%  
5 29% 97%  
6 24% 68% Median
7 32% 44%  
8 12% 12%  
9 0% 0%  

cdH

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 0.2% 99.9%  
7 71% 99.7% Median
8 22% 29%  
9 4% 7% Last Result
10 3% 3%  
11 0.6% 0.6%  
12 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 22% 98%  
3 18% 77%  
4 35% 58% Median
5 22% 23%  
6 0.7% 0.7% Last Result
7 0% 0%  

PTB

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 26% 99.9% Last Result
3 61% 74% Median
4 13% 13%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

PVDA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Parti Populaire

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 32% 100%  
1 34% 68% Last Result, Median
2 34% 34%  
3 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a – PS – MR – Groen – cdH – Ecolo 109 95 100% 93–98 92–99 91–99 90–101
CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a – PS – MR – cdH 97 83 100% 80–86 79–87 79–88 77–89
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH 94 82 99.9% 79–85 79–86 78–87 77–88
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR 85 75 38% 72–77 71–78 71–79 69–80
Open Vld – sp.a – PS – MR – Groen – Ecolo 82 72 5% 69–75 68–75 68–76 66–78
CD&V – Open Vld – PS – MR – cdH 84 70 0.7% 67–73 66–74 65–74 64–76
CD&V – sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA 77 69 0.1% 66–72 65–72 64–73 63–74
CD&V – sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo 75 66 0% 63–69 62–70 62–70 60–72
CD&V – Open Vld – MR – Groen – cdH – Ecolo 73 65 0% 62–67 61–68 60–69 59–70
Open Vld – sp.a – PS – MR 70 59 0% 57–62 57–63 56–64 55–65
CD&V – sp.a – PS – cdH 63 54 0% 51–56 50–57 50–58 49–59
sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA 59 53 0% 50–55 50–56 49–57 48–58
CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH 61 52 0% 49–55 49–56 48–57 47–58
sp.a – PS – Groen – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA 50 46 0% 43–48 42–49 41–50 40–51

CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a – PS – MR – Groen – cdH – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.3% 99.9%  
90 0.8% 99.7%  
91 2% 98.8%  
92 5% 97%  
93 11% 91%  
94 18% 80% Median
95 21% 62%  
96 18% 40%  
97 11% 22%  
98 6% 11%  
99 3% 5%  
100 1.4% 2%  
101 0.5% 0.5%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a – PS – MR – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100% Majority
77 0.5% 99.8%  
78 2% 99.3%  
79 4% 98%  
80 8% 94%  
81 13% 86%  
82 16% 73% Median
83 17% 57%  
84 15% 40%  
85 11% 25%  
86 7% 14%  
87 4% 7%  
88 2% 3%  
89 0.8% 1.1%  
90 0.3% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.3% 99.9% Majority
77 1.1% 99.6%  
78 3% 98%  
79 6% 95%  
80 11% 89%  
81 15% 79%  
82 18% 63% Median
83 17% 45%  
84 13% 28%  
85 8% 15%  
86 4% 7%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.7% 1.0%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.5% 99.9%  
70 1.4% 99.4%  
71 4% 98%  
72 7% 94%  
73 12% 87%  
74 17% 75%  
75 19% 58% Median
76 17% 38% Majority
77 11% 21%  
78 6% 10%  
79 3% 4%  
80 0.9% 1.4%  
81 0.3% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Open Vld – sp.a – PS – MR – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.4% 99.9%  
67 1.4% 99.4%  
68 4% 98%  
69 9% 94%  
70 14% 85%  
71 18% 70% Median
72 18% 52%  
73 14% 35%  
74 10% 20%  
75 6% 10%  
76 3% 5% Majority
77 1.1% 2%  
78 0.4% 0.6%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – Open Vld – PS – MR – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.2% 100%  
64 0.9% 99.8%  
65 2% 98.9%  
66 5% 96%  
67 9% 91%  
68 13% 82%  
69 16% 69% Median
70 17% 53%  
71 14% 36%  
72 10% 21%  
73 6% 11%  
74 3% 5%  
75 1.2% 2%  
76 0.5% 0.7% Majority
77 0.2% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.7% 99.7%  
64 2% 99.0%  
65 4% 97%  
66 7% 93%  
67 11% 86%  
68 16% 75% Median
69 18% 59%  
70 17% 41%  
71 13% 24%  
72 6% 11%  
73 3% 5%  
74 1.1% 2%  
75 0.4% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.6% 99.7%  
61 2% 99.1%  
62 4% 98%  
63 6% 94%  
64 11% 87%  
65 15% 77% Median
66 18% 62%  
67 18% 44%  
68 14% 26%  
69 7% 12%  
70 3% 5%  
71 1.3% 2%  
72 0.4% 0.6%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – Open Vld – MR – Groen – cdH – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.2% 100%  
59 0.7% 99.8%  
60 2% 99.0%  
61 5% 97%  
62 8% 92%  
63 13% 84%  
64 17% 71% Median
65 22% 54%  
66 16% 32%  
67 8% 16%  
68 5% 8%  
69 2% 3%  
70 0.8% 1.0%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0% Last Result

Open Vld – sp.a – PS – MR

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.3% 99.9%  
55 1.0% 99.6%  
56 3% 98.6%  
57 10% 95%  
58 18% 85%  
59 20% 68% Median
60 18% 48%  
61 13% 30%  
62 8% 17%  
63 5% 9%  
64 2% 4%  
65 1.1% 2%  
66 0.4% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – sp.a – PS – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.9%  
49 1.3% 99.6%  
50 3% 98%  
51 8% 95%  
52 12% 87%  
53 16% 75% Median
54 19% 59%  
55 17% 40%  
56 13% 23%  
57 6% 10%  
58 2% 4%  
59 1.0% 1.4%  
60 0.3% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 1.0% 99.6%  
49 3% 98.6%  
50 6% 96%  
51 12% 89%  
52 18% 77% Median
53 21% 59%  
54 17% 38%  
55 12% 21%  
56 6% 10%  
57 3% 4%  
58 1.0% 1.3%  
59 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.2% 100%  
47 1.0% 99.8%  
48 3% 98.8%  
49 6% 96%  
50 10% 90%  
51 14% 80%  
52 17% 65% Median
53 17% 48%  
54 14% 31%  
55 9% 18%  
56 5% 9%  
57 2% 4%  
58 1.0% 1.4%  
59 0.3% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

sp.a – PS – Groen – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0.6% 99.8%  
41 2% 99.1%  
42 5% 97%  
43 9% 93%  
44 14% 83%  
45 18% 69% Median
46 19% 51%  
47 15% 32%  
48 10% 18%  
49 5% 8%  
50 2% 3% Last Result
51 0.7% 1.0%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations