Opinion Poll by Ipsos for RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws, 23–28 January 2015
Areas included: Flanders, Wallonia
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
N-VA |
20.3% |
20.2% |
18.9–21.0% |
18.6–21.2% |
18.3–21.3% |
17.8–21.4% |
CD&V |
11.6% |
11.4% |
10.4–12.1% |
10.2–12.3% |
9.9–12.4% |
9.5–12.4% |
Open Vld |
9.8% |
9.9% |
9.0–10.6% |
8.8–10.7% |
8.6–10.8% |
8.2–10.8% |
sp.a |
8.8% |
9.8% |
8.9–10.4% |
8.7–10.6% |
8.5–10.6% |
8.0–10.7% |
PS |
11.7% |
9.1% |
8.4–9.2% |
8.3–9.3% |
8.1–9.3% |
7.9–9.3% |
MR |
9.6% |
8.7% |
7.9–8.6% |
7.8–8.6% |
7.7–8.7% |
7.4–8.7% |
Groen |
5.3% |
6.8% |
6.1–7.6% |
5.9–7.8% |
5.7–7.9% |
5.4–8.0% |
Vlaams Belang |
3.7% |
5.1% |
4.4–5.7% |
4.2–5.8% |
4.1–5.9% |
3.8–6.0% |
cdH |
5.0% |
4.6% |
4.1–4.7% |
4.0–4.7% |
3.9–4.8% |
3.7–4.8% |
Ecolo |
3.3% |
2.8% |
2.4–2.8% |
2.3–2.9% |
2.2–2.9% |
2.1–2.9% |
PTB |
2.0% |
2.5% |
2.0–2.5% |
2.0–2.5% |
1.9–2.5% |
1.8–2.5% |
PVDA |
1.8% |
2.4% |
1.9–2.8% |
1.8–2.9% |
1.7–2.9% |
1.5–2.9% |
Parti Populaire |
1.5% |
1.5% |
1.3–1.6% |
1.2–1.6% |
1.2–1.7% |
1.1–1.7% |
DéFI |
1.8% |
0.7% |
0.6–0.8% |
0.5–0.8% |
0.5–0.8% |
0.4–0.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Median |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
N-VA |
33 |
30 |
28–32 |
27–32 |
27–33 |
26–34 |
CD&V |
18 |
16 |
13–18 |
13–18 |
13–18 |
13–19 |
Open Vld |
14 |
13 |
12–15 |
12–16 |
11–17 |
11–18 |
sp.a |
13 |
13 |
13–15 |
12–15 |
11–16 |
10–17 |
PS |
23 |
17 |
16–18 |
16–18 |
16–18 |
15–19 |
MR |
20 |
16 |
14–17 |
14–18 |
14–18 |
14–19 |
Groen |
6 |
8 |
7–10 |
6–11 |
6–11 |
6–12 |
Vlaams Belang |
3 |
6 |
5–8 |
5–8 |
4–8 |
2–8 |
cdH |
9 |
7 |
7–8 |
7–9 |
7–10 |
7–11 |
Ecolo |
6 |
4 |
2–5 |
2–5 |
2–5 |
1–6 |
PTB |
2 |
3 |
2–4 |
2–4 |
2–4 |
2–4 |
PVDA |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Parti Populaire |
1 |
1 |
0–2 |
0–2 |
0–2 |
0–2 |
DéFI |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
N-VA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
27 |
5% |
98% |
|
28 |
13% |
93% |
|
29 |
23% |
80% |
|
30 |
20% |
57% |
Median |
31 |
26% |
38% |
|
32 |
8% |
12% |
|
33 |
3% |
4% |
Last Result |
34 |
1.1% |
1.4% |
|
35 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
36 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
CD&V
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
11% |
100% |
|
14 |
12% |
89% |
|
15 |
15% |
77% |
|
16 |
18% |
62% |
Median |
17 |
16% |
43% |
|
18 |
26% |
27% |
Last Result |
19 |
0.8% |
1.0% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Open Vld
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
4% |
100% |
|
12 |
25% |
96% |
|
13 |
49% |
71% |
Median |
14 |
9% |
22% |
Last Result |
15 |
6% |
13% |
|
16 |
3% |
8% |
|
17 |
4% |
4% |
|
18 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
sp.a
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
10 |
1.3% |
99.7% |
|
11 |
2% |
98% |
|
12 |
6% |
96% |
|
13 |
65% |
90% |
Last Result, Median |
14 |
11% |
25% |
|
15 |
11% |
14% |
|
16 |
2% |
3% |
|
17 |
1.0% |
1.2% |
|
18 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
PS
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
16 |
22% |
98.9% |
|
17 |
31% |
77% |
Median |
18 |
44% |
46% |
|
19 |
2% |
2% |
|
20 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
MR
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
14 |
10% |
99.6% |
|
15 |
26% |
90% |
|
16 |
37% |
64% |
Median |
17 |
21% |
27% |
|
18 |
5% |
6% |
|
19 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
20 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
6 |
8% |
99.6% |
Last Result |
7 |
7% |
91% |
|
8 |
39% |
85% |
Median |
9 |
19% |
46% |
|
10 |
19% |
26% |
|
11 |
5% |
8% |
|
12 |
2% |
2% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
3 |
1.1% |
99.3% |
Last Result |
4 |
2% |
98% |
|
5 |
29% |
97% |
|
6 |
24% |
68% |
Median |
7 |
32% |
44% |
|
8 |
12% |
12% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
cdH
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
71% |
99.7% |
Median |
8 |
22% |
29% |
|
9 |
4% |
7% |
Last Result |
10 |
3% |
3% |
|
11 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
2% |
100% |
|
2 |
22% |
98% |
|
3 |
18% |
77% |
|
4 |
35% |
58% |
Median |
5 |
22% |
23% |
|
6 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
Last Result |
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
PTB
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
2 |
26% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
3 |
61% |
74% |
Median |
4 |
13% |
13% |
|
5 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
PVDA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Parti Populaire
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
32% |
100% |
|
1 |
34% |
68% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
34% |
34% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a – PS – MR – Groen – cdH – Ecolo |
109 |
95 |
100% |
93–98 |
92–99 |
91–99 |
90–101 |
CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a – PS – MR – cdH |
97 |
83 |
100% |
80–86 |
79–87 |
79–88 |
77–89 |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH |
94 |
82 |
99.9% |
79–85 |
79–86 |
78–87 |
77–88 |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR |
85 |
75 |
38% |
72–77 |
71–78 |
71–79 |
69–80 |
Open Vld – sp.a – PS – MR – Groen – Ecolo |
82 |
72 |
5% |
69–75 |
68–75 |
68–76 |
66–78 |
CD&V – Open Vld – PS – MR – cdH |
84 |
70 |
0.7% |
67–73 |
66–74 |
65–74 |
64–76 |
CD&V – sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA |
77 |
69 |
0.1% |
66–72 |
65–72 |
64–73 |
63–74 |
CD&V – sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo |
75 |
66 |
0% |
63–69 |
62–70 |
62–70 |
60–72 |
CD&V – Open Vld – MR – Groen – cdH – Ecolo |
73 |
65 |
0% |
62–67 |
61–68 |
60–69 |
59–70 |
Open Vld – sp.a – PS – MR |
70 |
59 |
0% |
57–62 |
57–63 |
56–64 |
55–65 |
CD&V – sp.a – PS – cdH |
63 |
54 |
0% |
51–56 |
50–57 |
50–58 |
49–59 |
sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA |
59 |
53 |
0% |
50–55 |
50–56 |
49–57 |
48–58 |
CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH |
61 |
52 |
0% |
49–55 |
49–56 |
48–57 |
47–58 |
sp.a – PS – Groen – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA |
50 |
46 |
0% |
43–48 |
42–49 |
41–50 |
40–51 |
CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a – PS – MR – Groen – cdH – Ecolo
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
88 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
89 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
90 |
0.8% |
99.7% |
|
91 |
2% |
98.8% |
|
92 |
5% |
97% |
|
93 |
11% |
91% |
|
94 |
18% |
80% |
Median |
95 |
21% |
62% |
|
96 |
18% |
40% |
|
97 |
11% |
22% |
|
98 |
6% |
11% |
|
99 |
3% |
5% |
|
100 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
101 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
102 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
103 |
0% |
0% |
|
104 |
0% |
0% |
|
105 |
0% |
0% |
|
106 |
0% |
0% |
|
107 |
0% |
0% |
|
108 |
0% |
0% |
|
109 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a – PS – MR – cdH
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
76 |
0.1% |
100% |
Majority |
77 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
78 |
2% |
99.3% |
|
79 |
4% |
98% |
|
80 |
8% |
94% |
|
81 |
13% |
86% |
|
82 |
16% |
73% |
Median |
83 |
17% |
57% |
|
84 |
15% |
40% |
|
85 |
11% |
25% |
|
86 |
7% |
14% |
|
87 |
4% |
7% |
|
88 |
2% |
3% |
|
89 |
0.8% |
1.1% |
|
90 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
91 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
92 |
0% |
0% |
|
93 |
0% |
0% |
|
94 |
0% |
0% |
|
95 |
0% |
0% |
|
96 |
0% |
0% |
|
97 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
75 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
76 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
Majority |
77 |
1.1% |
99.6% |
|
78 |
3% |
98% |
|
79 |
6% |
95% |
|
80 |
11% |
89% |
|
81 |
15% |
79% |
|
82 |
18% |
63% |
Median |
83 |
17% |
45% |
|
84 |
13% |
28% |
|
85 |
8% |
15% |
|
86 |
4% |
7% |
|
87 |
2% |
3% |
|
88 |
0.7% |
1.0% |
|
89 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
90 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
91 |
0% |
0% |
|
92 |
0% |
0% |
|
93 |
0% |
0% |
|
94 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
68 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
69 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
70 |
1.4% |
99.4% |
|
71 |
4% |
98% |
|
72 |
7% |
94% |
|
73 |
12% |
87% |
|
74 |
17% |
75% |
|
75 |
19% |
58% |
Median |
76 |
17% |
38% |
Majority |
77 |
11% |
21% |
|
78 |
6% |
10% |
|
79 |
3% |
4% |
|
80 |
0.9% |
1.4% |
|
81 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
82 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
83 |
0% |
0% |
|
84 |
0% |
0% |
|
85 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Open Vld – sp.a – PS – MR – Groen – Ecolo
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
65 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
66 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
67 |
1.4% |
99.4% |
|
68 |
4% |
98% |
|
69 |
9% |
94% |
|
70 |
14% |
85% |
|
71 |
18% |
70% |
Median |
72 |
18% |
52% |
|
73 |
14% |
35% |
|
74 |
10% |
20% |
|
75 |
6% |
10% |
|
76 |
3% |
5% |
Majority |
77 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
78 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
79 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
80 |
0% |
0% |
|
81 |
0% |
0% |
|
82 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
CD&V – Open Vld – PS – MR – cdH
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
63 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
64 |
0.9% |
99.8% |
|
65 |
2% |
98.9% |
|
66 |
5% |
96% |
|
67 |
9% |
91% |
|
68 |
13% |
82% |
|
69 |
16% |
69% |
Median |
70 |
17% |
53% |
|
71 |
14% |
36% |
|
72 |
10% |
21% |
|
73 |
6% |
11% |
|
74 |
3% |
5% |
|
75 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
76 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
Majority |
77 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
78 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
79 |
0% |
0% |
|
80 |
0% |
0% |
|
81 |
0% |
0% |
|
82 |
0% |
0% |
|
83 |
0% |
0% |
|
84 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
CD&V – sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
61 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
62 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
63 |
0.7% |
99.7% |
|
64 |
2% |
99.0% |
|
65 |
4% |
97% |
|
66 |
7% |
93% |
|
67 |
11% |
86% |
|
68 |
16% |
75% |
Median |
69 |
18% |
59% |
|
70 |
17% |
41% |
|
71 |
13% |
24% |
|
72 |
6% |
11% |
|
73 |
3% |
5% |
|
74 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
75 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
76 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Majority |
77 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
CD&V – sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
58 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
59 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
60 |
0.6% |
99.7% |
|
61 |
2% |
99.1% |
|
62 |
4% |
98% |
|
63 |
6% |
94% |
|
64 |
11% |
87% |
|
65 |
15% |
77% |
Median |
66 |
18% |
62% |
|
67 |
18% |
44% |
|
68 |
14% |
26% |
|
69 |
7% |
12% |
|
70 |
3% |
5% |
|
71 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
72 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
73 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
CD&V – Open Vld – MR – Groen – cdH – Ecolo
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
58 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
59 |
0.7% |
99.8% |
|
60 |
2% |
99.0% |
|
61 |
5% |
97% |
|
62 |
8% |
92% |
|
63 |
13% |
84% |
|
64 |
17% |
71% |
Median |
65 |
22% |
54% |
|
66 |
16% |
32% |
|
67 |
8% |
16% |
|
68 |
5% |
8% |
|
69 |
2% |
3% |
|
70 |
0.8% |
1.0% |
|
71 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
72 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Open Vld – sp.a – PS – MR
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
53 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
54 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
55 |
1.0% |
99.6% |
|
56 |
3% |
98.6% |
|
57 |
10% |
95% |
|
58 |
18% |
85% |
|
59 |
20% |
68% |
Median |
60 |
18% |
48% |
|
61 |
13% |
30% |
|
62 |
8% |
17% |
|
63 |
5% |
9% |
|
64 |
2% |
4% |
|
65 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
66 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
67 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
CD&V – sp.a – PS – cdH
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
47 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
48 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
49 |
1.3% |
99.6% |
|
50 |
3% |
98% |
|
51 |
8% |
95% |
|
52 |
12% |
87% |
|
53 |
16% |
75% |
Median |
54 |
19% |
59% |
|
55 |
17% |
40% |
|
56 |
13% |
23% |
|
57 |
6% |
10% |
|
58 |
2% |
4% |
|
59 |
1.0% |
1.4% |
|
60 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
61 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
46 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
47 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
48 |
1.0% |
99.6% |
|
49 |
3% |
98.6% |
|
50 |
6% |
96% |
|
51 |
12% |
89% |
|
52 |
18% |
77% |
Median |
53 |
21% |
59% |
|
54 |
17% |
38% |
|
55 |
12% |
21% |
|
56 |
6% |
10% |
|
57 |
3% |
4% |
|
58 |
1.0% |
1.3% |
|
59 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
Last Result |
60 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
46 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
47 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
48 |
3% |
98.8% |
|
49 |
6% |
96% |
|
50 |
10% |
90% |
|
51 |
14% |
80% |
|
52 |
17% |
65% |
Median |
53 |
17% |
48% |
|
54 |
14% |
31% |
|
55 |
9% |
18% |
|
56 |
5% |
9% |
|
57 |
2% |
4% |
|
58 |
1.0% |
1.4% |
|
59 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
60 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
sp.a – PS – Groen – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
39 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
40 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
41 |
2% |
99.1% |
|
42 |
5% |
97% |
|
43 |
9% |
93% |
|
44 |
14% |
83% |
|
45 |
18% |
69% |
Median |
46 |
19% |
51% |
|
47 |
15% |
32% |
|
48 |
10% |
18% |
|
49 |
5% |
8% |
|
50 |
2% |
3% |
Last Result |
51 |
0.7% |
1.0% |
|
52 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
53 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws
- Fieldwork period: 23–28 January 2015
Calculations
- Sample size: 1549
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.19%