Opinion Poll by Dedicated for RTBf–La Libre Belgique, 5–9 March 2015

Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 20.3% 18.1% 15.8–16.9% 15.5–16.9% 15.3–16.9% 14.8–16.9%
CD&V 11.6% 10.4% 8.6–9.4% 8.4–9.5% 8.2–9.5% 7.8–9.5%
sp.a 8.8% 10.4% 8.5–9.4% 8.3–9.4% 8.2–9.4% 7.8–9.4%
PS 11.7% 10.3% 9.1–9.6% 8.9–9.6% 8.8–9.6% 8.6–9.6%
Open Vld 9.8% 9.7% 7.9–8.7% 7.7–8.8% 7.6–8.8% 7.2–8.8%
MR 9.6% 9.5% 8.3–8.7% 8.1–8.7% 8.0–8.7% 7.8–8.8%
Groen 5.3% 5.9% 5.1–6.6% 4.9–6.7% 4.7–6.8% 4.3–6.9%
cdH 5.0% 5.1% 4.2–4.6% 4.1–4.6% 4.0–4.6% 3.9–4.6%
Vlaams Belang 3.7% 4.7% 3.4–4.0% 3.3–4.0% 3.2–4.0% 2.9–4.0%
Ecolo 3.3% 3.4% 2.7–2.9% 2.6–3.0% 2.5–3.0% 2.4–3.0%
PTB 2.0% 3.0% 2.3–2.5% 2.2–2.5% 2.1–2.5% 2.0–2.5%
PVDA 1.8% 2.1% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.6% 1.2–2.7%
DéFI 1.8% 1.8% 1.4–1.6% 1.4–1.6% 1.3–1.6% 1.2–1.6%
Parti Populaire 1.5% 1.3% 0.8–1.0% 0.8–1.0% 0.7–1.0% 0.7–1.0%
Piratenpartij 0.3% 0.8% 0.5–1.1% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3%
Lijst Dedecker 0.4% 0.4% 0.2–0.6% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 33 29 26–31 25–32 25–32 24–34
CD&V 18 16 13–18 13–18 13–19 13–19
sp.a 13 15 13–18 13–18 13–18 12–19
PS 23 22 20–23 20–24 20–25 19–26
Open Vld 14 13 12–17 12–17 12–18 11–18
MR 20 20 18–22 18–22 18–23 17–23
Groen 6 8 6–10 5–10 5–11 5–12
cdH 9 9 8–11 8–12 8–13 8–13
Vlaams Belang 3 6 4–8 3–8 2–8 2–8
Ecolo 6 5 4–7 3–7 3–7 3–8
PTB 2 4 3–5 3–5 3–6 2–7
PVDA 0 0 0 0 0 0
DéFI 2 2 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
Parti Populaire 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
Piratenpartij 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lijst Dedecker 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

N-VA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100%  
24 1.5% 99.7%  
25 6% 98%  
26 10% 92%  
27 12% 82%  
28 13% 70%  
29 21% 57% Median
30 12% 36%  
31 19% 24%  
32 4% 5%  
33 0.9% 1.4% Last Result
34 0.4% 0.5%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

CD&V

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.3% 99.9%  
13 25% 99.6%  
14 9% 75%  
15 12% 65%  
16 20% 54% Median
17 11% 34%  
18 21% 23% Last Result
19 2% 3%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

sp.a

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.3% 99.9%  
12 1.1% 99.7%  
13 26% 98.6% Last Result
14 14% 73%  
15 20% 59% Median
16 15% 39%  
17 11% 23%  
18 10% 12%  
19 1.3% 2%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

PS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 2% 99.9%  
20 10% 98%  
21 27% 88%  
22 47% 61% Median
23 8% 14% Last Result
24 3% 6%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.8% 0.9%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Open Vld

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 2% 99.9%  
12 16% 98%  
13 38% 82% Median
14 8% 44% Last Result
15 15% 36%  
16 7% 21%  
17 8% 13%  
18 5% 5%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

MR

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 2% 99.9%  
18 17% 98%  
19 24% 82%  
20 23% 58% Last Result, Median
21 22% 35%  
22 11% 13%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.3% 0.4%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 5% 100%  
6 25% 95% Last Result
7 10% 70%  
8 32% 60% Median
9 16% 28%  
10 9% 12%  
11 1.4% 4%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0% 0%  

cdH

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.1% 99.9%  
8 10% 99.8%  
9 51% 89% Last Result, Median
10 23% 39%  
11 6% 15%  
12 7% 10%  
13 3% 3%  
14 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 4% 99.9%  
3 6% 96% Last Result
4 3% 91%  
5 23% 88%  
6 27% 64% Median
7 27% 38%  
8 11% 11%  
9 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 7% 99.9%  
4 24% 92%  
5 18% 68% Median
6 25% 50% Last Result
7 23% 25%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

PTB

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 1.2% 100% Last Result
3 16% 98.8%  
4 47% 83% Median
5 32% 36%  
6 4% 5%  
7 1.1% 1.2%  
8 0% 0%  

PVDA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 93% 99.9% Last Result, Median
3 7% 7%  
4 0% 0%  

Parti Populaire

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Median
1 10% 13% Last Result
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Piratenpartij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Lijst Dedecker

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lijst Dedecker page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Last Result, Median
1 16% 16%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
CD&V – sp.a – PS – Open Vld – MR – Groen – cdH – Ecolo 109 109 100% 106–112 105–113 104–114 103–115
CD&V – sp.a – PS – Open Vld – MR – cdH 97 96 100% 92–100 91–101 91–102 89–103
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH 94 88 100% 84–91 83–92 82–93 81–95
sp.a – PS – Open Vld – MR – Groen – Ecolo 82 84 99.9% 80–87 79–88 78–89 77–91
CD&V – PS – Open Vld – MR – cdH 84 81 97% 77–84 76–85 75–86 74–88
CD&V – sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA 77 79 91% 76–83 75–84 74–85 72–87
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR 85 78 81% 74–82 73–83 73–83 71–85
CD&V – sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo 75 75 40% 71–79 70–80 70–81 68–82
CD&V – Open Vld – MR – Groen – cdH – Ecolo 73 72 10% 69–76 68–77 67–78 65–79
sp.a – PS – Open Vld – MR 70 71 4% 67–74 66–75 66–76 64–78
sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA 59 64 0% 60–67 59–68 59–69 57–70
CD&V – sp.a – PS – cdH 63 62 0% 59–66 58–67 57–68 56–69
CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH 61 59 0% 55–63 54–64 54–65 52–66
sp.a – PS – Groen – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA 50 54 0% 51–58 50–59 49–60 48–61

CD&V – sp.a – PS – Open Vld – MR – Groen – cdH – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0.1% 100%  
102 0.3% 99.9%  
103 0.7% 99.6%  
104 2% 98.9%  
105 5% 97%  
106 10% 92%  
107 15% 83%  
108 17% 67% Median
109 14% 50% Last Result
110 11% 36%  
111 9% 26%  
112 8% 17%  
113 5% 10%  
114 3% 4%  
115 0.9% 1.2%  
116 0.2% 0.3%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

CD&V – sp.a – PS – Open Vld – MR – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.2% 99.9%  
89 0.6% 99.8%  
90 2% 99.2%  
91 4% 98%  
92 7% 93%  
93 10% 86%  
94 11% 76%  
95 13% 65% Median
96 13% 52%  
97 12% 39% Last Result
98 10% 28%  
99 7% 18%  
100 5% 10%  
101 3% 5%  
102 2% 3%  
103 0.7% 1.2%  
104 0.3% 0.5%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.4% 99.9%  
81 1.1% 99.5%  
82 2% 98%  
83 4% 96%  
84 7% 92%  
85 9% 85%  
86 11% 77%  
87 13% 65% Median
88 13% 53%  
89 12% 39%  
90 10% 27%  
91 8% 17%  
92 5% 9%  
93 2% 4%  
94 1.2% 2% Last Result
95 0.5% 0.7%  
96 0.2% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

sp.a – PS – Open Vld – MR – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.3% 99.9% Majority
77 0.8% 99.7%  
78 2% 98.9%  
79 4% 97%  
80 6% 93%  
81 10% 87%  
82 12% 77% Last Result
83 12% 65% Median
84 12% 53%  
85 12% 40%  
86 11% 28%  
87 8% 17%  
88 5% 9%  
89 2% 4%  
90 1.1% 2%  
91 0.6% 0.9%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

CD&V – PS – Open Vld – MR – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.7% 99.8%  
75 2% 99.2%  
76 4% 97% Majority
77 6% 93%  
78 9% 87%  
79 12% 77%  
80 13% 65% Median
81 14% 52%  
82 12% 38%  
83 10% 26%  
84 7% 16% Last Result
85 5% 9%  
86 2% 5%  
87 1.3% 2%  
88 0.6% 0.9%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

CD&V – sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.4% 99.8%  
73 1.2% 99.4%  
74 3% 98%  
75 5% 96%  
76 8% 91% Majority
77 11% 83% Last Result
78 13% 71%  
79 15% 58% Median
80 13% 44%  
81 10% 31%  
82 8% 20%  
83 5% 13%  
84 3% 7%  
85 2% 4%  
86 1.2% 2%  
87 0.5% 0.6%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.2% 100%  
71 0.6% 99.8%  
72 2% 99.2%  
73 3% 98%  
74 5% 95%  
75 8% 89%  
76 10% 81% Majority
77 12% 71%  
78 14% 59% Median
79 13% 45%  
80 12% 32%  
81 9% 20%  
82 6% 11%  
83 3% 5%  
84 1.5% 2%  
85 0.6% 0.9% Last Result
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

CD&V – sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.5% 99.8%  
69 1.4% 99.2%  
70 3% 98%  
71 6% 95%  
72 9% 89%  
73 12% 80%  
74 14% 68%  
75 14% 55% Last Result, Median
76 12% 40% Majority
77 10% 28%  
78 7% 18%  
79 5% 11%  
80 3% 6%  
81 2% 3%  
82 1.0% 1.4%  
83 0.3% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

CD&V – Open Vld – MR – Groen – cdH – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.4% 99.8%  
66 1.0% 99.5%  
67 2% 98%  
68 5% 96%  
69 8% 91%  
70 11% 83%  
71 14% 72% Median
72 16% 58%  
73 14% 43% Last Result
74 11% 29%  
75 8% 18%  
76 5% 10% Majority
77 3% 5%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.7% 0.9%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

sp.a – PS – Open Vld – MR

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.5% 99.8%  
65 2% 99.4%  
66 5% 98%  
67 7% 93%  
68 9% 86%  
69 12% 77%  
70 14% 65% Last Result, Median
71 14% 52%  
72 13% 37%  
73 10% 25%  
74 7% 15%  
75 4% 9%  
76 2% 4% Majority
77 1.2% 2%  
78 0.6% 0.8%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.5% 99.9%  
58 1.5% 99.4%  
59 3% 98% Last Result
60 6% 95%  
61 11% 88%  
62 13% 78%  
63 14% 65% Median
64 14% 50%  
65 11% 37%  
66 10% 25%  
67 7% 16%  
68 5% 9%  
69 3% 4%  
70 1.0% 1.3%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

CD&V – sp.a – PS – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 1.1% 99.6%  
57 3% 98.5%  
58 6% 96%  
59 10% 90%  
60 14% 80%  
61 15% 67%  
62 14% 52% Median
63 11% 39% Last Result
64 10% 27%  
65 7% 17%  
66 5% 10%  
67 3% 5%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.7% 1.1%  
70 0.3% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.4% 99.9%  
53 2% 99.5%  
54 3% 98%  
55 6% 94%  
56 9% 89%  
57 11% 80%  
58 13% 69% Median
59 14% 56%  
60 13% 42%  
61 10% 30% Last Result
62 8% 19%  
63 5% 11%  
64 3% 6%  
65 2% 3%  
66 0.8% 1.2%  
67 0.3% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

sp.a – PS – Groen – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.9%  
48 1.2% 99.5%  
49 3% 98%  
50 5% 96% Last Result
51 9% 90%  
52 11% 82%  
53 14% 70%  
54 14% 57% Median
55 13% 43%  
56 10% 30%  
57 8% 20%  
58 6% 12%  
59 4% 6%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.6% 0.8%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations