Opinion Poll by Dedicated for RTBf–La Libre Belgique, 12–18 May 2015

Areas included: Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 20.3% 18.8% 17.4–19.7% 17.0–19.9% 16.7–20.0% 16.1–20.1%
CD&V 11.6% 11.5% 10.3–12.3% 10.0–12.5% 9.8–12.6% 9.3–12.7%
sp.a 8.8% 10.5% 9.3–11.2% 9.1–11.4% 8.8–11.5% 8.4–11.5%
Open Vld 9.8% 10.3% 9.2–11.0% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.3% 8.2–11.4%
PS 11.7% 9.8% 9.0–10.0% 8.8–10.1% 8.6–10.1% 8.3–10.1%
MR 9.6% 8.4% 7.6–8.4% 7.4–8.5% 7.3–8.5% 7.0–8.5%
Groen 5.3% 6.7% 5.8–7.5% 5.6–7.8% 5.4–7.9% 5.0–8.0%
Vlaams Belang 3.7% 5.3% 4.5–6.0% 4.3–6.2% 4.1–6.3% 3.8–6.4%
cdH 5.0% 4.2% 3.6–4.2% 3.5–4.3% 3.4–4.3% 3.2–4.3%
Ecolo 3.3% 3.0% 2.5–3.0% 2.4–3.0% 2.3–3.1% 2.1–3.1%
PTB 2.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.0% 2.4–3.0% 2.3–3.1% 2.1–3.1%
PVDA 1.8% 2.2% 1.7–2.6% 1.6–2.7% 1.5–2.8% 1.3–2.8%
Parti Populaire 1.5% 1.5% 1.2–1.6% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.6% 0.9–1.6%
Piratenpartij 0.3% 1.2% 0.9–1.6% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.7%
DéFI 1.8% 1.0% 0.7–1.1% 0.7–1.1% 0.6–1.1% 0.5–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 33 28 25–30 24–31 24–31 23–32
CD&V 18 17 13–18 13–18 13–19 13–20
sp.a 13 14 13–16 13–17 12–18 11–18
Open Vld 14 13 12–17 12–17 12–18 11–18
PS 23 18 16–19 16–19 16–20 15–22
MR 20 15 14–17 14–17 14–18 13–19
Groen 6 8 6–10 6–11 6–12 5–12
Vlaams Belang 3 7 5–8 5–8 4–8 2–8
cdH 9 7 6–7 5–8 5–8 4–9
Ecolo 6 4 2–5 2–5 1–6 1–6
PTB 2 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 2–6
PVDA 0 0 0 0 0 0
Parti Populaire 1 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Piratenpartij 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
DéFI 2 0 0 0 0 0

N-VA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 1.1% 99.9%  
24 4% 98.8%  
25 7% 95%  
26 17% 88%  
27 16% 71%  
28 19% 55% Median
29 18% 37%  
30 10% 18%  
31 6% 8%  
32 2% 2%  
33 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

CD&V

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100%  
13 14% 99.9%  
14 9% 86%  
15 12% 77%  
16 14% 65%  
17 16% 51% Median
18 30% 34% Last Result
19 3% 4%  
20 0.5% 0.8%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

sp.a

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.3% 99.9%  
11 0.6% 99.6%  
12 2% 99.0%  
13 41% 97% Last Result
14 12% 56% Median
15 23% 44%  
16 12% 21%  
17 6% 9%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Open Vld

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 2% 100%  
12 17% 98%  
13 38% 81% Median
14 13% 44% Last Result
15 10% 31%  
16 7% 21%  
17 10% 14%  
18 4% 4%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

PS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.6% 100%  
16 13% 99.4%  
17 23% 86%  
18 51% 63% Median
19 7% 12%  
20 3% 5%  
21 1.1% 2%  
22 0.8% 0.8%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

MR

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.3% 99.9%  
13 2% 99.6%  
14 46% 98%  
15 22% 52% Median
16 19% 30%  
17 8% 12%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0.5% 0.6%  
20 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
21 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 14% 98% Last Result
7 11% 84%  
8 34% 73% Median
9 16% 39%  
10 15% 23%  
11 5% 8%  
12 4% 4%  
13 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.6% 100%  
3 1.5% 99.4% Last Result
4 1.4% 98%  
5 17% 97%  
6 23% 80%  
7 31% 56% Median
8 25% 26%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

cdH

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 2% 100%  
5 4% 98%  
6 5% 94%  
7 80% 89% Median
8 7% 8%  
9 0.6% 1.0% Last Result
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100%  
2 9% 97%  
3 9% 89%  
4 43% 79% Median
5 34% 36%  
6 3% 3% Last Result
7 0% 0%  

PTB

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 2% 100% Last Result
3 35% 98%  
4 55% 62% Median
5 6% 7%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

PVDA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Parti Populaire

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 50% 100%  
1 27% 50% Last Result, Median
2 23% 23%  
3 0% 0%  

Piratenpartij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.3% 1.5%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld – PS – MR – Groen – cdH – Ecolo 109 96 100% 93–99 93–100 92–101 91–102
CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld – PS – MR – cdH 97 84 100% 81–87 80–88 79–89 78–91
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH 94 80 95% 76–83 75–84 75–85 73–86
sp.a – Open Vld – PS – MR – Groen – Ecolo 82 73 18% 70–76 69–77 69–78 67–80
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR 85 73 14% 70–76 69–77 68–78 67–79
CD&V – sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA 77 71 4% 68–74 67–75 66–76 64–77
CD&V – Open Vld – PS – MR – cdH 84 70 1.3% 66–73 65–74 65–75 63–76
CD&V – sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo 75 67 0% 64–71 63–72 62–72 61–74
CD&V – Open Vld – MR – Groen – cdH – Ecolo 73 64 0% 61–67 60–68 59–69 58–71
sp.a – Open Vld – PS – MR 70 61 0% 58–64 57–65 56–66 55–68
CD&V – sp.a – PS – cdH 63 55 0% 52–58 51–59 50–60 49–61
sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA 59 55 0% 52–58 51–59 50–60 49–61
CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH 61 52 0% 49–55 48–56 47–57 46–59
sp.a – PS – Groen – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA 50 48 0% 45–51 44–52 43–53 42–54

CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld – PS – MR – Groen – cdH – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0.3% 99.9%  
91 1.1% 99.6%  
92 3% 98.5%  
93 7% 96%  
94 12% 89%  
95 16% 77%  
96 16% 61% Median
97 14% 45%  
98 12% 30%  
99 9% 18%  
100 5% 9%  
101 2% 3%  
102 0.7% 1.0%  
103 0.2% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld – PS – MR – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100% Majority
77 0.3% 99.9%  
78 0.9% 99.6%  
79 2% 98.7%  
80 5% 96%  
81 9% 91%  
82 12% 81%  
83 13% 69%  
84 14% 55% Median
85 13% 41%  
86 11% 28%  
87 8% 17%  
88 5% 9%  
89 2% 4%  
90 1.2% 2%  
91 0.5% 0.7%  
92 0.2% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.5% 99.9%  
74 1.3% 99.3%  
75 3% 98%  
76 6% 95% Majority
77 9% 89%  
78 12% 80%  
79 15% 68%  
80 16% 54% Median
81 15% 38%  
82 10% 24%  
83 7% 13%  
84 4% 7%  
85 2% 3%  
86 0.7% 1.1%  
87 0.3% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

sp.a – Open Vld – PS – MR – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.6% 99.8%  
68 2% 99.3%  
69 4% 98%  
70 8% 93%  
71 12% 85%  
72 14% 73% Median
73 15% 59%  
74 14% 45%  
75 12% 30%  
76 8% 18% Majority
77 5% 10%  
78 3% 5%  
79 1.3% 2%  
80 0.5% 0.8%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
83 0% 0%  

N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.4% 99.9%  
67 1.1% 99.5%  
68 3% 98%  
69 5% 96%  
70 9% 90%  
71 11% 81%  
72 14% 70%  
73 16% 56% Median
74 15% 40%  
75 11% 25%  
76 7% 14% Majority
77 4% 7%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.8% 1.2%  
80 0.3% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.4% 99.8%  
65 1.1% 99.4%  
66 2% 98%  
67 4% 96%  
68 7% 91%  
69 11% 84%  
70 14% 73%  
71 16% 60%  
72 15% 44% Median
73 12% 30%  
74 8% 17%  
75 5% 9%  
76 3% 4% Majority
77 1.0% 1.5% Last Result
78 0.3% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

CD&V – Open Vld – PS – MR – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.5% 99.9%  
64 1.5% 99.4%  
65 3% 98%  
66 6% 94%  
67 9% 89%  
68 12% 80%  
69 15% 67%  
70 16% 52% Median
71 13% 36%  
72 10% 23%  
73 6% 13%  
74 4% 7%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.8% 1.3% Majority
77 0.3% 0.5%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 0.8% 99.5%  
62 2% 98.7%  
63 4% 97%  
64 6% 93%  
65 10% 87%  
66 13% 77%  
67 15% 64%  
68 15% 49% Median
69 13% 34%  
70 9% 21%  
71 6% 11%  
72 3% 5%  
73 1.4% 2%  
74 0.5% 0.7%  
75 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
76 0% 0% Majority

CD&V – Open Vld – MR – Groen – cdH – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.9%  
58 0.8% 99.6%  
59 2% 98.8%  
60 4% 97%  
61 6% 93%  
62 9% 87%  
63 14% 77%  
64 16% 64% Median
65 16% 47%  
66 13% 31%  
67 8% 18%  
68 5% 10%  
69 3% 5%  
70 1.2% 2%  
71 0.4% 0.5%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0% Last Result

sp.a – Open Vld – PS – MR

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.6% 99.9%  
56 2% 99.3%  
57 6% 97%  
58 10% 91%  
59 12% 81%  
60 14% 69% Median
61 16% 54%  
62 14% 39%  
63 10% 25%  
64 7% 15%  
65 4% 8%  
66 2% 4%  
67 1.1% 2%  
68 0.5% 0.8%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
71 0% 0%  

CD&V – sp.a – PS – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.7% 99.8%  
50 2% 99.1%  
51 4% 97%  
52 8% 93%  
53 12% 85%  
54 15% 74%  
55 16% 58%  
56 15% 42% Median
57 10% 27%  
58 8% 17%  
59 5% 9%  
60 2% 4%  
61 0.8% 1.3%  
62 0.3% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
64 0% 0%  

sp.a – PS – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.7% 99.7%  
50 2% 98.9%  
51 4% 97%  
52 8% 93%  
53 13% 85%  
54 16% 72%  
55 17% 56% Median
56 14% 38%  
57 10% 24%  
58 7% 14%  
59 4% 7% Last Result
60 2% 3%  
61 0.7% 1.0%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 1.0% 99.7%  
47 3% 98.8%  
48 5% 96%  
49 8% 91%  
50 11% 83%  
51 15% 72%  
52 16% 57% Median
53 15% 41%  
54 11% 27%  
55 7% 16%  
56 5% 8%  
57 2% 4%  
58 1.1% 2%  
59 0.4% 0.6%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

sp.a – PS – Groen – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.7% 99.7%  
43 2% 99.1%  
44 4% 97%  
45 7% 93%  
46 13% 86%  
47 16% 73%  
48 17% 57% Median
49 14% 40%  
50 11% 26% Last Result
51 7% 15%  
52 4% 8%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.9% 1.2%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations