Opinion Poll by Ipsos for RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws, 15–20 January 2016
Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
N-VA |
20.3% |
17.6% |
16.5–18.4% |
16.2–18.5% |
15.9–18.6% |
15.4–18.7% |
CD&V |
11.6% |
9.9% |
9.0–10.6% |
8.8–10.7% |
8.6–10.8% |
8.2–10.8% |
PS |
11.7% |
9.5% |
8.5–8.9% |
8.4–9.0% |
8.3–9.0% |
8.1–9.0% |
sp.a |
8.8% |
9.4% |
8.5–10.1% |
8.3–10.2% |
8.1–10.3% |
7.8–10.3% |
MR |
9.6% |
8.7% |
7.7–8.0% |
7.6–8.1% |
7.5–8.1% |
7.3–8.1% |
Open Vld |
9.8% |
7.7% |
6.9–8.3% |
6.7–8.4% |
6.5–8.5% |
6.2–8.5% |
Vlaams Belang |
3.7% |
7.2% |
6.4–7.8% |
6.2–7.9% |
6.0–7.9% |
5.7–8.0% |
Groen |
5.3% |
6.3% |
5.6–6.9% |
5.4–7.0% |
5.3–7.1% |
5.0–7.1% |
cdH |
5.0% |
3.9% |
3.2–3.5% |
3.2–3.5% |
3.1–3.5% |
3.0–3.5% |
Ecolo |
3.3% |
3.4% |
2.8–3.1% |
2.7–3.1% |
2.7–3.1% |
2.6–3.1% |
PTB |
2.0% |
3.2% |
2.6–2.8% |
2.5–2.9% |
2.5–2.9% |
2.4–2.9% |
PVDA |
1.8% |
2.3% |
1.9–2.7% |
1.8–2.7% |
1.7–2.8% |
1.5–2.8% |
DéFI |
1.8% |
1.8% |
1.4–1.5% |
1.3–1.5% |
1.3–1.5% |
1.2–1.5% |
Parti Populaire |
1.5% |
1.8% |
1.3–1.5% |
1.3–1.5% |
1.2–1.5% |
1.1–1.5% |
La Droite |
0.4% |
0.9% |
0.7–1.0% |
0.7–1.0% |
0.6–1.0% |
0.6–1.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Median |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
N-VA |
33 |
28 |
26–31 |
26–31 |
25–31 |
24–32 |
CD&V |
18 |
13 |
13–17 |
13–18 |
13–18 |
13–18 |
PS |
23 |
21 |
20–22 |
20–23 |
19–23 |
19–24 |
sp.a |
13 |
13 |
13–15 |
13–16 |
12–17 |
11–18 |
MR |
20 |
19 |
18–20 |
18–21 |
18–21 |
17–22 |
Open Vld |
14 |
12 |
11–12 |
10–13 |
9–13 |
8–14 |
Vlaams Belang |
3 |
9 |
8–12 |
8–12 |
8–13 |
8–13 |
Groen |
6 |
9 |
8–11 |
6–11 |
6–12 |
6–12 |
cdH |
9 |
8 |
6–9 |
6–9 |
5–9 |
5–9 |
Ecolo |
6 |
6 |
5–7 |
5–7 |
5–8 |
4–8 |
PTB |
2 |
5 |
4–6 |
4–6 |
4–7 |
4–7 |
PVDA |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
DéFI |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1–3 |
1–3 |
1–3 |
Parti Populaire |
1 |
2 |
0–2 |
0–2 |
0–2 |
0–2 |
La Droite |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
N-VA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
2% |
100% |
|
25 |
2% |
98% |
|
26 |
9% |
95% |
|
27 |
16% |
87% |
|
28 |
23% |
71% |
Median |
29 |
22% |
47% |
|
30 |
14% |
26% |
|
31 |
11% |
12% |
|
32 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
33 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
34 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
CD&V
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
12 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
13 |
58% |
99.6% |
Median |
14 |
17% |
42% |
|
15 |
8% |
25% |
|
16 |
6% |
17% |
|
17 |
4% |
11% |
|
18 |
6% |
6% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
PS
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
19 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
20 |
27% |
96% |
|
21 |
29% |
69% |
Median |
22 |
32% |
40% |
|
23 |
8% |
9% |
Last Result |
24 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
sp.a
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
11 |
1.5% |
99.9% |
|
12 |
1.2% |
98% |
|
13 |
48% |
97% |
Last Result, Median |
14 |
16% |
49% |
|
15 |
27% |
33% |
|
16 |
3% |
6% |
|
17 |
3% |
4% |
|
18 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
MR
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
1.2% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
23% |
98.7% |
|
19 |
50% |
76% |
Median |
20 |
18% |
26% |
Last Result |
21 |
6% |
8% |
|
22 |
2% |
2% |
|
23 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Open Vld
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
1.5% |
100% |
|
9 |
1.4% |
98.5% |
|
10 |
3% |
97% |
|
11 |
33% |
94% |
|
12 |
52% |
61% |
Median |
13 |
8% |
8% |
|
14 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
Last Result |
15 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
16 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
8 |
37% |
99.9% |
|
9 |
13% |
63% |
Median |
10 |
11% |
50% |
|
11 |
12% |
39% |
|
12 |
23% |
27% |
|
13 |
3% |
4% |
|
14 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
6 |
5% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
7 |
3% |
95% |
|
8 |
13% |
92% |
|
9 |
30% |
78% |
Median |
10 |
35% |
49% |
|
11 |
10% |
14% |
|
12 |
4% |
4% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
cdH
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
3% |
100% |
|
6 |
14% |
97% |
|
7 |
15% |
83% |
|
8 |
54% |
68% |
Median |
9 |
13% |
13% |
Last Result |
10 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
4 |
1.1% |
99.7% |
|
5 |
13% |
98.7% |
|
6 |
42% |
86% |
Last Result, Median |
7 |
40% |
44% |
|
8 |
4% |
4% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
PTB
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
4 |
15% |
99.5% |
|
5 |
57% |
85% |
Median |
6 |
24% |
27% |
|
7 |
3% |
3% |
|
8 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
PVDA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
5% |
100% |
|
2 |
87% |
95% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
7% |
7% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Parti Populaire
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
10% |
100% |
|
1 |
25% |
90% |
Last Result |
2 |
65% |
65% |
Median |
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
La Droite
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La Droite page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
90% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
10% |
10% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
CD&V – PS – sp.a – MR – Open Vld – Groen – cdH – Ecolo |
109 |
103 |
100% |
100–106 |
99–107 |
99–107 |
98–109 |
CD&V – PS – sp.a – MR – Open Vld – cdH |
97 |
87 |
100% |
85–90 |
84–91 |
83–92 |
82–94 |
PS – sp.a – MR – Open Vld – Groen – Ecolo |
82 |
81 |
99.5% |
79–84 |
78–85 |
77–86 |
76–87 |
N-VA – CD&V – MR – Open Vld – cdH |
94 |
81 |
99.2% |
78–83 |
77–84 |
77–85 |
75–86 |
CD&V – PS – sp.a – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA |
77 |
77 |
82% |
75–80 |
74–81 |
73–82 |
72–83 |
CD&V – PS – MR – Open Vld – cdH |
84 |
73 |
16% |
71–76 |
71–77 |
70–78 |
69–79 |
N-VA – CD&V – MR – Open Vld |
85 |
73 |
12% |
71–76 |
70–77 |
69–77 |
68–79 |
CD&V – PS – sp.a – Groen – cdH – Ecolo |
75 |
72 |
8% |
69–75 |
69–76 |
68–77 |
67–78 |
CD&V – MR – Open Vld – Groen – cdH – Ecolo |
73 |
68 |
0% |
65–71 |
65–72 |
64–72 |
63–74 |
PS – sp.a – MR – Open Vld |
70 |
66 |
0% |
63–68 |
63–69 |
62–70 |
61–71 |
PS – sp.a – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA |
59 |
63 |
0% |
61–66 |
60–67 |
59–67 |
58–69 |
CD&V – PS – sp.a – cdH |
63 |
56 |
0% |
54–60 |
54–61 |
53–61 |
52–63 |
PS – sp.a – Groen – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA |
50 |
56 |
0% |
53–58 |
52–59 |
52–60 |
50–61 |
CD&V – MR – Open Vld – cdH |
61 |
52 |
0% |
50–55 |
49–56 |
49–57 |
48–58 |
CD&V – PS – sp.a – MR – Open Vld – Groen – cdH – Ecolo
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
96 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
97 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
98 |
1.2% |
99.6% |
|
99 |
3% |
98% |
|
100 |
7% |
95% |
|
101 |
13% |
88% |
Median |
102 |
18% |
75% |
|
103 |
18% |
57% |
|
104 |
15% |
39% |
|
105 |
11% |
25% |
|
106 |
7% |
14% |
|
107 |
4% |
6% |
|
108 |
2% |
2% |
|
109 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
Last Result |
110 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
111 |
0% |
0% |
|
CD&V – PS – sp.a – MR – Open Vld – cdH
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
81 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
82 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
83 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
84 |
5% |
97% |
|
85 |
12% |
92% |
|
86 |
17% |
80% |
Median |
87 |
19% |
63% |
|
88 |
16% |
45% |
|
89 |
12% |
29% |
|
90 |
8% |
16% |
|
91 |
5% |
8% |
|
92 |
2% |
4% |
|
93 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
94 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
95 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
96 |
0% |
0% |
|
97 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
PS – sp.a – MR – Open Vld – Groen – Ecolo
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
74 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
75 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
76 |
1.0% |
99.5% |
Majority |
77 |
2% |
98.6% |
|
78 |
5% |
96% |
|
79 |
10% |
91% |
|
80 |
15% |
81% |
Median |
81 |
19% |
66% |
|
82 |
18% |
47% |
Last Result |
83 |
13% |
30% |
|
84 |
8% |
16% |
|
85 |
5% |
8% |
|
86 |
2% |
3% |
|
87 |
0.8% |
1.1% |
|
88 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
89 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
90 |
0% |
0% |
|
N-VA – CD&V – MR – Open Vld – cdH
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
73 |
0% |
100% |
|
74 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
75 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
76 |
2% |
99.2% |
Majority |
77 |
4% |
98% |
|
78 |
9% |
94% |
|
79 |
15% |
85% |
|
80 |
18% |
70% |
Median |
81 |
17% |
53% |
|
82 |
15% |
35% |
|
83 |
10% |
20% |
|
84 |
5% |
10% |
|
85 |
3% |
4% |
|
86 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
87 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
88 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
89 |
0% |
0% |
|
90 |
0% |
0% |
|
91 |
0% |
0% |
|
92 |
0% |
0% |
|
93 |
0% |
0% |
|
94 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
CD&V – PS – sp.a – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
70 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
71 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
72 |
0.8% |
99.7% |
|
73 |
2% |
98.9% |
|
74 |
5% |
97% |
|
75 |
10% |
92% |
Median |
76 |
16% |
82% |
Majority |
77 |
19% |
66% |
Last Result |
78 |
16% |
47% |
|
79 |
12% |
30% |
|
80 |
9% |
18% |
|
81 |
5% |
9% |
|
82 |
3% |
4% |
|
83 |
1.0% |
1.4% |
|
84 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
85 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
86 |
0% |
0% |
|
CD&V – PS – MR – Open Vld – cdH
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
67 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
68 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
69 |
0.9% |
99.6% |
|
70 |
3% |
98.7% |
|
71 |
10% |
95% |
|
72 |
19% |
85% |
|
73 |
22% |
66% |
Median |
74 |
17% |
45% |
|
75 |
11% |
27% |
|
76 |
7% |
16% |
Majority |
77 |
5% |
9% |
|
78 |
3% |
4% |
|
79 |
1.0% |
1.2% |
|
80 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
81 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
82 |
0% |
0% |
|
83 |
0% |
0% |
|
84 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
N-VA – CD&V – MR – Open Vld
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
66 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
67 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
68 |
0.8% |
99.6% |
|
69 |
2% |
98.8% |
|
70 |
7% |
97% |
|
71 |
13% |
90% |
|
72 |
17% |
77% |
Median |
73 |
18% |
59% |
|
74 |
17% |
42% |
|
75 |
12% |
24% |
|
76 |
7% |
12% |
Majority |
77 |
4% |
6% |
|
78 |
2% |
2% |
|
79 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
|
80 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
81 |
0% |
0% |
|
82 |
0% |
0% |
|
83 |
0% |
0% |
|
84 |
0% |
0% |
|
85 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
CD&V – PS – sp.a – Groen – cdH – Ecolo
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
65 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
66 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
67 |
1.1% |
99.6% |
|
68 |
3% |
98.5% |
|
69 |
6% |
96% |
|
70 |
11% |
90% |
Median |
71 |
16% |
79% |
|
72 |
19% |
63% |
|
73 |
16% |
44% |
|
74 |
12% |
28% |
|
75 |
8% |
16% |
Last Result |
76 |
5% |
8% |
Majority |
77 |
2% |
4% |
|
78 |
0.9% |
1.3% |
|
79 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
80 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
81 |
0% |
0% |
|
CD&V – MR – Open Vld – Groen – cdH – Ecolo
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
61 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
62 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
63 |
1.0% |
99.6% |
|
64 |
3% |
98.6% |
|
65 |
8% |
96% |
|
66 |
14% |
88% |
|
67 |
18% |
74% |
Median |
68 |
17% |
56% |
|
69 |
14% |
38% |
|
70 |
11% |
24% |
|
71 |
7% |
14% |
|
72 |
4% |
6% |
|
73 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
74 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
75 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
PS – sp.a – MR – Open Vld
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
59 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
60 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
61 |
0.9% |
99.6% |
|
62 |
3% |
98.7% |
|
63 |
8% |
96% |
|
64 |
15% |
88% |
|
65 |
20% |
74% |
Median |
66 |
20% |
54% |
|
67 |
15% |
33% |
|
68 |
10% |
18% |
|
69 |
5% |
8% |
|
70 |
2% |
3% |
Last Result |
71 |
0.8% |
1.1% |
|
72 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
73 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
PS – sp.a – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
56 |
0% |
100% |
|
57 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
58 |
0.6% |
99.7% |
|
59 |
2% |
99.1% |
Last Result |
60 |
4% |
97% |
|
61 |
9% |
93% |
|
62 |
15% |
84% |
Median |
63 |
21% |
70% |
|
64 |
21% |
49% |
|
65 |
14% |
28% |
|
66 |
8% |
14% |
|
67 |
4% |
6% |
|
68 |
2% |
2% |
|
69 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
|
70 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
CD&V – PS – sp.a – cdH
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
50 |
0% |
100% |
|
51 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
52 |
1.0% |
99.7% |
|
53 |
3% |
98.7% |
|
54 |
10% |
95% |
|
55 |
17% |
86% |
Median |
56 |
21% |
69% |
|
57 |
18% |
49% |
|
58 |
13% |
31% |
|
59 |
8% |
18% |
|
60 |
5% |
10% |
|
61 |
3% |
5% |
|
62 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
63 |
0.6% |
0.9% |
Last Result |
64 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
65 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
PS – sp.a – Groen – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
49 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
50 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
51 |
1.3% |
99.5% |
|
52 |
3% |
98% |
|
53 |
7% |
95% |
|
54 |
13% |
88% |
Median |
55 |
19% |
75% |
|
56 |
21% |
57% |
|
57 |
16% |
36% |
|
58 |
10% |
19% |
|
59 |
5% |
9% |
|
60 |
2% |
4% |
|
61 |
1.0% |
1.3% |
|
62 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
63 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
CD&V – MR – Open Vld – cdH
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
46 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
47 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
48 |
1.2% |
99.6% |
|
49 |
4% |
98% |
|
50 |
10% |
95% |
|
51 |
20% |
84% |
|
52 |
23% |
64% |
Median |
53 |
17% |
41% |
|
54 |
10% |
24% |
|
55 |
7% |
14% |
|
56 |
5% |
8% |
|
57 |
2% |
3% |
|
58 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
59 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws
- Fieldwork period: 15–20 January 2016
Calculations
- Sample size: 1687
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.99%