Opinion Poll by Ipsos for RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws, 15–20 January 2016

Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 20.3% 17.6% 16.5–18.4% 16.2–18.5% 15.9–18.6% 15.4–18.7%
CD&V 11.6% 9.9% 9.0–10.6% 8.8–10.7% 8.6–10.8% 8.2–10.8%
PS 11.7% 9.5% 8.5–8.9% 8.4–9.0% 8.3–9.0% 8.1–9.0%
sp.a 8.8% 9.4% 8.5–10.1% 8.3–10.2% 8.1–10.3% 7.8–10.3%
MR 9.6% 8.7% 7.7–8.0% 7.6–8.1% 7.5–8.1% 7.3–8.1%
Open Vld 9.8% 7.7% 6.9–8.3% 6.7–8.4% 6.5–8.5% 6.2–8.5%
Vlaams Belang 3.7% 7.2% 6.4–7.8% 6.2–7.9% 6.0–7.9% 5.7–8.0%
Groen 5.3% 6.3% 5.6–6.9% 5.4–7.0% 5.3–7.1% 5.0–7.1%
cdH 5.0% 3.9% 3.2–3.5% 3.2–3.5% 3.1–3.5% 3.0–3.5%
Ecolo 3.3% 3.4% 2.8–3.1% 2.7–3.1% 2.7–3.1% 2.6–3.1%
PTB 2.0% 3.2% 2.6–2.8% 2.5–2.9% 2.5–2.9% 2.4–2.9%
PVDA 1.8% 2.3% 1.9–2.7% 1.8–2.7% 1.7–2.8% 1.5–2.8%
DéFI 1.8% 1.8% 1.4–1.5% 1.3–1.5% 1.3–1.5% 1.2–1.5%
Parti Populaire 1.5% 1.8% 1.3–1.5% 1.3–1.5% 1.2–1.5% 1.1–1.5%
La Droite 0.4% 0.9% 0.7–1.0% 0.7–1.0% 0.6–1.0% 0.6–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 33 28 26–31 26–31 25–31 24–32
CD&V 18 13 13–17 13–18 13–18 13–18
PS 23 21 20–22 20–23 19–23 19–24
sp.a 13 13 13–15 13–16 12–17 11–18
MR 20 19 18–20 18–21 18–21 17–22
Open Vld 14 12 11–12 10–13 9–13 8–14
Vlaams Belang 3 9 8–12 8–12 8–13 8–13
Groen 6 9 8–11 6–11 6–12 6–12
cdH 9 8 6–9 6–9 5–9 5–9
Ecolo 6 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 4–8
PTB 2 5 4–6 4–6 4–7 4–7
PVDA 0 0 0 0 0 0
DéFI 2 2 2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Parti Populaire 1 2 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
La Droite 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

N-VA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 2% 100%  
25 2% 98%  
26 9% 95%  
27 16% 87%  
28 23% 71% Median
29 22% 47%  
30 14% 26%  
31 11% 12%  
32 0.7% 0.9%  
33 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

CD&V

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.3% 99.9%  
13 58% 99.6% Median
14 17% 42%  
15 8% 25%  
16 6% 17%  
17 4% 11%  
18 6% 6% Last Result
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

PS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 4% 99.8%  
20 27% 96%  
21 29% 69% Median
22 32% 40%  
23 8% 9% Last Result
24 0.4% 0.5%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

sp.a

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 1.5% 99.9%  
12 1.2% 98%  
13 48% 97% Last Result, Median
14 16% 49%  
15 27% 33%  
16 3% 6%  
17 3% 4%  
18 1.2% 1.3%  
19 0% 0%  

MR

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.2% 99.9%  
18 23% 98.7%  
19 50% 76% Median
20 18% 26% Last Result
21 6% 8%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  

Open Vld

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 1.5% 100%  
9 1.4% 98.5%  
10 3% 97%  
11 33% 94%  
12 52% 61% Median
13 8% 8%  
14 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
15 0.1% 0.2%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.1% 100%  
8 37% 99.9%  
9 13% 63% Median
10 11% 50%  
11 12% 39%  
12 23% 27%  
13 3% 4%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 5% 99.8% Last Result
7 3% 95%  
8 13% 92%  
9 30% 78% Median
10 35% 49%  
11 10% 14%  
12 4% 4%  
13 0% 0%  

cdH

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 3% 100%  
6 14% 97%  
7 15% 83%  
8 54% 68% Median
9 13% 13% Last Result
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 1.1% 99.7%  
5 13% 98.7%  
6 42% 86% Last Result, Median
7 40% 44%  
8 4% 4%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

PTB

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0.5% 100%  
4 15% 99.5%  
5 57% 85% Median
6 24% 27%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

PVDA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 5% 100%  
2 87% 95% Last Result, Median
3 7% 7%  
4 0% 0%  

Parti Populaire

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 25% 90% Last Result
2 65% 65% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

La Droite

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La Droite page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Last Result, Median
1 10% 10%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
CD&V – PS – sp.a – MR – Open Vld – Groen – cdH – Ecolo 109 103 100% 100–106 99–107 99–107 98–109
CD&V – PS – sp.a – MR – Open Vld – cdH 97 87 100% 85–90 84–91 83–92 82–94
PS – sp.a – MR – Open Vld – Groen – Ecolo 82 81 99.5% 79–84 78–85 77–86 76–87
N-VA – CD&V – MR – Open Vld – cdH 94 81 99.2% 78–83 77–84 77–85 75–86
CD&V – PS – sp.a – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA 77 77 82% 75–80 74–81 73–82 72–83
CD&V – PS – MR – Open Vld – cdH 84 73 16% 71–76 71–77 70–78 69–79
N-VA – CD&V – MR – Open Vld 85 73 12% 71–76 70–77 69–77 68–79
CD&V – PS – sp.a – Groen – cdH – Ecolo 75 72 8% 69–75 69–76 68–77 67–78
CD&V – MR – Open Vld – Groen – cdH – Ecolo 73 68 0% 65–71 65–72 64–72 63–74
PS – sp.a – MR – Open Vld 70 66 0% 63–68 63–69 62–70 61–71
PS – sp.a – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA 59 63 0% 61–66 60–67 59–67 58–69
CD&V – PS – sp.a – cdH 63 56 0% 54–60 54–61 53–61 52–63
PS – sp.a – Groen – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA 50 56 0% 53–58 52–59 52–60 50–61
CD&V – MR – Open Vld – cdH 61 52 0% 50–55 49–56 49–57 48–58

CD&V – PS – sp.a – MR – Open Vld – Groen – cdH – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0.1% 100%  
97 0.3% 99.9%  
98 1.2% 99.6%  
99 3% 98%  
100 7% 95%  
101 13% 88% Median
102 18% 75%  
103 18% 57%  
104 15% 39%  
105 11% 25%  
106 7% 14%  
107 4% 6%  
108 2% 2%  
109 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

CD&V – PS – sp.a – MR – Open Vld – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.2% 100%  
82 0.6% 99.8%  
83 2% 99.2%  
84 5% 97%  
85 12% 92%  
86 17% 80% Median
87 19% 63%  
88 16% 45%  
89 12% 29%  
90 8% 16%  
91 5% 8%  
92 2% 4%  
93 1.0% 2%  
94 0.4% 0.6%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

PS – sp.a – MR – Open Vld – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.3% 99.8%  
76 1.0% 99.5% Majority
77 2% 98.6%  
78 5% 96%  
79 10% 91%  
80 15% 81% Median
81 19% 66%  
82 18% 47% Last Result
83 13% 30%  
84 8% 16%  
85 5% 8%  
86 2% 3%  
87 0.8% 1.1%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

N-VA – CD&V – MR – Open Vld – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.5% 99.8%  
76 2% 99.2% Majority
77 4% 98%  
78 9% 94%  
79 15% 85%  
80 18% 70% Median
81 17% 53%  
82 15% 35%  
83 10% 20%  
84 5% 10%  
85 3% 4%  
86 1.1% 2%  
87 0.4% 0.5%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – PS – sp.a – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.8% 99.7%  
73 2% 98.9%  
74 5% 97%  
75 10% 92% Median
76 16% 82% Majority
77 19% 66% Last Result
78 16% 47%  
79 12% 30%  
80 9% 18%  
81 5% 9%  
82 3% 4%  
83 1.0% 1.4%  
84 0.3% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

CD&V – PS – MR – Open Vld – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.3% 99.9%  
69 0.9% 99.6%  
70 3% 98.7%  
71 10% 95%  
72 19% 85%  
73 22% 66% Median
74 17% 45%  
75 11% 27%  
76 7% 16% Majority
77 5% 9%  
78 3% 4%  
79 1.0% 1.2%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0% Last Result

N-VA – CD&V – MR – Open Vld

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.3% 99.9%  
68 0.8% 99.6%  
69 2% 98.8%  
70 7% 97%  
71 13% 90%  
72 17% 77% Median
73 18% 59%  
74 17% 42%  
75 12% 24%  
76 7% 12% Majority
77 4% 6%  
78 2% 2%  
79 0.5% 0.7%  
80 0.2% 0.2%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – PS – sp.a – Groen – cdH – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.3% 99.9%  
67 1.1% 99.6%  
68 3% 98.5%  
69 6% 96%  
70 11% 90% Median
71 16% 79%  
72 19% 63%  
73 16% 44%  
74 12% 28%  
75 8% 16% Last Result
76 5% 8% Majority
77 2% 4%  
78 0.9% 1.3%  
79 0.3% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

CD&V – MR – Open Vld – Groen – cdH – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.3% 99.9%  
63 1.0% 99.6%  
64 3% 98.6%  
65 8% 96%  
66 14% 88%  
67 18% 74% Median
68 17% 56%  
69 14% 38%  
70 11% 24%  
71 7% 14%  
72 4% 6%  
73 2% 2% Last Result
74 0.4% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority

PS – sp.a – MR – Open Vld

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 0.9% 99.6%  
62 3% 98.7%  
63 8% 96%  
64 15% 88%  
65 20% 74% Median
66 20% 54%  
67 15% 33%  
68 10% 18%  
69 5% 8%  
70 2% 3% Last Result
71 0.8% 1.1%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

PS – sp.a – Groen – cdH – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.6% 99.7%  
59 2% 99.1% Last Result
60 4% 97%  
61 9% 93%  
62 15% 84% Median
63 21% 70%  
64 21% 49%  
65 14% 28%  
66 8% 14%  
67 4% 6%  
68 2% 2%  
69 0.5% 0.7%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

CD&V – PS – sp.a – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9%  
52 1.0% 99.7%  
53 3% 98.7%  
54 10% 95%  
55 17% 86% Median
56 21% 69%  
57 18% 49%  
58 13% 31%  
59 8% 18%  
60 5% 10%  
61 3% 5%  
62 1.4% 2%  
63 0.6% 0.9% Last Result
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

PS – sp.a – Groen – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
51 1.3% 99.5%  
52 3% 98%  
53 7% 95%  
54 13% 88% Median
55 19% 75%  
56 21% 57%  
57 16% 36%  
58 10% 19%  
59 5% 9%  
60 2% 4%  
61 1.0% 1.3%  
62 0.3% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

CD&V – MR – Open Vld – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 1.2% 99.6%  
49 4% 98%  
50 10% 95%  
51 20% 84%  
52 23% 64% Median
53 17% 41%  
54 10% 24%  
55 7% 14%  
56 5% 8%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.7% 0.8%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations