Opinion Poll by Dedicated for RTBf–La Libre Belgique, 2–6 September 2016

Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 20.3% 15.9% 13.8–14.8% 13.6–14.8% 13.4–14.8% 12.9–14.8%
CD&V 11.6% 9.8% 8.1–8.9% 7.9–8.9% 7.7–8.9% 7.4–8.9%
sp.a 8.8% 9.3% 7.7–8.5% 7.5–8.5% 7.4–8.5% 7.0–8.5%
PS 11.7% 9.3% 8.1–8.6% 8.0–8.6% 7.8–8.6% 7.6–8.6%
Open Vld 9.8% 8.8% 7.3–8.0% 7.1–8.0% 6.9–8.0% 6.6–8.0%
MR 9.6% 8.7% 7.5–8.0% 7.4–8.0% 7.3–8.0% 7.0–8.0%
Vlaams Belang 3.7% 8.3% 6.7–7.4% 6.6–7.5% 6.4–7.5% 6.1–7.5%
Groen 5.3% 6.2% 5.3–6.8% 5.1–6.9% 4.9–7.0% 4.6–7.1%
PTB 2.0% 5.1% 4.1–4.5% 4.0–4.5% 3.9–4.5% 3.7–4.5%
Ecolo 3.3% 3.9% 3.1–3.4% 3.0–3.4% 3.0–3.4% 2.8–3.4%
cdH 5.0% 3.7% 2.9–3.2% 2.8–3.2% 2.8–3.2% 2.6–3.2%
PVDA 1.8% 3.2% 2.6–3.7% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–3.9%
DéFI 1.8% 2.0% 1.5–1.7% 1.5–1.7% 1.5–1.7% 1.4–1.8%
Parti Populaire 1.5% 1.9% 1.3–1.5% 1.3–1.5% 1.2–1.5% 1.1–1.5%
Piratenpartij 0.3% 0.9% 0.6–1.2% 0.6–1.3% 0.5–1.3% 0.4–1.3%
La Droite 0.4% 0.8% 0.5–0.8% 0.5–0.8% 0.5–0.8% 0.4–0.9%
Wallonie d’Abord 0.2% 0.4% 0.2–0.4% 0.2–0.4% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5%
PIRATE 0.2% 0.3% 0.2–0.3% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.4%
FW 0.1% 0.2% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.3%
R.W.F. 0.1% 0.2% 0.1–0.2% 0.1–0.2% 0.1–0.3% 0.0–0.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 33 25 24–28 23–28 22–29 20–30
CD&V 18 14 13–17 13–18 13–18 12–18
sp.a 13 14 13–16 12–17 12–17 10–18
PS 23 19 18–21 18–22 17–22 16–22
Open Vld 14 13 12–15 11–16 11–17 10–17
MR 20 18 17–19 16–20 15–21 14–22
Vlaams Belang 3 12 10–14 8–14 8–15 8–15
Groen 6 9 6–10 6–11 6–12 5–12
PTB 2 9 8–9 8–10 7–10 6–11
Ecolo 6 7 6–9 5–9 5–9 4–10
cdH 9 6 5–8 4–8 4–8 4–9
PVDA 0 0 0 0 0 0
DéFI 2 2 2 2–3 2–3 1–4
Parti Populaire 1 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Piratenpartij 0 0 0 0 0 0
La Droite 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Wallonie d’Abord 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
PIRATE 0 0 0 0 0 0
FW 0 0 0 0 0 0
R.W.F. 0 0 0 0 0 0

N-VA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.5% 100%  
21 1.4% 99.4%  
22 2% 98%  
23 5% 96%  
24 34% 90%  
25 19% 57% Median
26 15% 37%  
27 11% 22%  
28 7% 11%  
29 2% 4%  
30 1.2% 2%  
31 0.3% 0.3%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.2% 99.9%  
12 1.0% 99.6%  
13 44% 98.6%  
14 12% 55% Median
15 15% 42%  
16 10% 28%  
17 9% 18%  
18 9% 9% Last Result
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

sp.a

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 0.4% 99.8%  
11 2% 99.4%  
12 4% 98%  
13 42% 94% Last Result
14 13% 51% Median
15 24% 38%  
16 7% 14%  
17 5% 7%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

PS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.6% 100%  
17 4% 99.4%  
18 16% 96%  
19 31% 79% Median
20 36% 48%  
21 6% 12%  
22 5% 6%  
23 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
24 0% 0%  

Open Vld

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.1% 99.9%  
10 0.4% 99.9%  
11 8% 99.5%  
12 41% 92%  
13 36% 51% Median
14 4% 15% Last Result
15 3% 11%  
16 4% 8%  
17 4% 4%  
18 0.3% 0.3%  
19 0% 0%  

MR

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.8% 99.9%  
15 3% 99.2%  
16 3% 97%  
17 12% 94%  
18 60% 82% Median
19 13% 22%  
20 7% 10% Last Result
21 2% 3%  
22 0.5% 0.6%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 5% 100%  
9 2% 95%  
10 4% 93%  
11 8% 89%  
12 47% 80% Median
13 17% 33%  
14 12% 16%  
15 4% 5%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.2% 100%  
6 14% 98.8% Last Result
7 6% 85%  
8 25% 79%  
9 24% 54% Median
10 22% 30%  
11 5% 8%  
12 4% 4%  
13 0% 0%  

PTB

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 1.1% 100%  
7 3% 98.8%  
8 32% 96%  
9 54% 64% Median
10 7% 10%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 2% 99.8%  
5 8% 98%  
6 29% 90% Last Result
7 34% 62% Median
8 17% 28%  
9 10% 11%  
10 0.5% 0.5%  
11 0% 0%  

cdH

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.3% 100%  
4 7% 99.7%  
5 7% 93%  
6 38% 85% Median
7 20% 47%  
8 26% 28%  
9 2% 2% Last Result
10 0% 0%  

PVDA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.4% 100%  
2 92% 98.6% Last Result, Median
3 5% 6%  
4 1.3% 2%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Parti Populaire

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 36% 100%  
1 18% 64% Last Result, Median
2 46% 46%  
3 0.5% 0.5%  
4 0% 0%  

Piratenpartij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartij page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

La Droite

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La Droite page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.2% 1.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Wallonie d’Abord

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Wallonie d’Abord page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.1% 1.1%  
2 0% 0%  

PIRATE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PIRATE page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

FW

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the FW page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

R.W.F.

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the R.W.F. page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
CD&V – PS – sp.a – Open Vld – MR – Groen – Ecolo – cdH 109 101 100% 98–104 97–105 96–106 95–107
CD&V – PS – sp.a – Open Vld – MR – cdH 97 85 100% 82–89 81–90 81–90 79–92
PS – sp.a – Open Vld – MR – Groen – Ecolo 82 80 95% 76–83 75–84 75–85 73–87
CD&V – PS – sp.a – Groen – PTB – Ecolo – cdH – PVDA 77 79 91% 76–82 75–83 74–84 72–85
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH 94 77 74% 74–80 73–81 73–82 71–84
CD&V – PS – Open Vld – MR – cdH 84 71 6% 68–75 68–76 67–76 66–78
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR 85 71 2% 67–74 67–75 66–75 64–77
CD&V – PS – sp.a – Groen – Ecolo – cdH 75 70 1.3% 67–73 66–74 65–75 63–77
CD&V – Open Vld – MR – Groen – Ecolo – cdH 73 67 0.1% 64–71 63–71 63–72 61–74
PS – sp.a – Groen – PTB – Ecolo – cdH – PVDA 59 64 0% 61–67 60–68 60–69 58–70
PS – sp.a – Open Vld – MR 70 64 0% 61–68 61–69 60–69 59–71
PS – sp.a – Groen – PTB – Ecolo – PVDA 50 58 0% 55–61 54–61 53–62 52–64
CD&V – PS – sp.a – cdH 63 54 0% 51–58 51–59 50–59 49–61
CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH 61 52 0% 49–55 48–56 48–57 47–58

CD&V – PS – sp.a – Open Vld – MR – Groen – Ecolo – cdH

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0.3% 99.9%  
95 0.9% 99.6%  
96 2% 98.7%  
97 4% 97%  
98 8% 92%  
99 12% 84%  
100 16% 72% Median
101 18% 56%  
102 15% 38%  
103 12% 23%  
104 6% 11%  
105 3% 6%  
106 1.4% 3%  
107 0.8% 1.1%  
108 0.3% 0.4%  
109 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
110 0% 0%  

CD&V – PS – sp.a – Open Vld – MR – cdH

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.5% 99.8%  
80 2% 99.3%  
81 4% 98%  
82 7% 94%  
83 11% 87%  
84 14% 76% Median
85 15% 62%  
86 15% 47%  
87 12% 32%  
88 9% 20%  
89 6% 11%  
90 3% 5%  
91 1.4% 2%  
92 0.6% 1.0%  
93 0.3% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

PS – sp.a – Open Vld – MR – Groen – Ecolo

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.5% 99.8%  
74 1.4% 99.2%  
75 3% 98%  
76 6% 95% Majority
77 9% 89%  
78 12% 80%  
79 15% 68%  
80 15% 53% Median
81 13% 39%  
82 10% 26% Last Result
83 7% 15%  
84 4% 8%  
85 2% 4%  
86 1.0% 2%  
87 0.5% 0.8%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

CD&V – PS – sp.a – Groen – PTB – Ecolo – cdH – PVDA

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.5% 99.8%  
73 1.2% 99.3%  
74 3% 98%  
75 5% 95%  
76 9% 91% Majority
77 14% 82% Last Result
78 16% 68% Median
79 16% 52%  
80 14% 36%  
81 10% 22%  
82 6% 12%  
83 3% 6%  
84 1.5% 3%  
85 0.6% 1.1%  
86 0.3% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.5% 99.7%  
72 2% 99.2%  
73 4% 98%  
74 8% 93%  
75 12% 85%  
76 15% 74% Median, Majority
77 17% 59%  
78 15% 42%  
79 12% 27%  
80 8% 16%  
81 4% 8%  
82 2% 4%  
83 1.0% 2%  
84 0.4% 0.7%  
85 0.2% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – PS – Open Vld – MR – cdH

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.3% 99.9%  
66 1.0% 99.7%  
67 3% 98.7%  
68 9% 96%  
69 13% 87%  
70 13% 74% Median
71 15% 61%  
72 14% 46%  
73 12% 32%  
74 9% 20%  
75 6% 11%  
76 4% 6% Majority
77 1.3% 2%  
78 0.5% 0.8%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0% Last Result

N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.4% 99.8%  
65 0.9% 99.4%  
66 2% 98.5%  
67 6% 96%  
68 10% 90%  
69 13% 80%  
70 16% 66% Median
71 17% 51%  
72 13% 33%  
73 9% 20%  
74 6% 11%  
75 3% 5%  
76 1.4% 2% Majority
77 0.7% 1.1%  
78 0.3% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – PS – sp.a – Groen – Ecolo – cdH

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.4% 99.8%  
64 0.9% 99.5%  
65 2% 98.5%  
66 4% 96%  
67 7% 92%  
68 12% 85%  
69 15% 73% Median
70 17% 57%  
71 15% 41%  
72 11% 25%  
73 7% 14%  
74 4% 7%  
75 2% 3% Last Result
76 0.8% 1.3% Majority
77 0.4% 0.5%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

CD&V – Open Vld – MR – Groen – Ecolo – cdH

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.2% 100%  
61 0.6% 99.8%  
62 2% 99.2%  
63 4% 98%  
64 7% 94%  
65 10% 87%  
66 13% 77%  
67 15% 63% Median
68 15% 48%  
69 13% 34%  
70 10% 21%  
71 6% 11%  
72 3% 5%  
73 1.2% 2% Last Result
74 0.5% 0.8%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0%  

PS – sp.a – Groen – PTB – Ecolo – cdH – PVDA

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.6% 99.7%  
59 2% 99.1% Last Result
60 4% 98%  
61 7% 94%  
62 12% 87%  
63 14% 75%  
64 17% 61% Median
65 16% 44%  
66 12% 28%  
67 8% 16%  
68 4% 8%  
69 2% 3%  
70 0.9% 1.3%  
71 0.3% 0.4%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

PS – sp.a – Open Vld – MR

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.4% 99.9%  
59 1.2% 99.5%  
60 3% 98%  
61 7% 95%  
62 12% 88%  
63 16% 76%  
64 16% 60% Median
65 14% 44%  
66 11% 30%  
67 9% 19%  
68 5% 10%  
69 3% 5%  
70 1.4% 2% Last Result
71 0.7% 1.1%  
72 0.2% 0.4%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

PS – sp.a – Groen – PTB – Ecolo – PVDA

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100% Last Result
51 0.3% 99.9%  
52 0.9% 99.6%  
53 2% 98.7%  
54 5% 96%  
55 9% 91%  
56 14% 82%  
57 16% 68%  
58 17% 52% Median
59 15% 35%  
60 10% 20%  
61 6% 10%  
62 3% 5%  
63 1.2% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.6%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  

CD&V – PS – sp.a – cdH

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.9%  
49 1.0% 99.5%  
50 3% 98.5%  
51 7% 96%  
52 11% 89%  
53 14% 78% Median
54 16% 64%  
55 15% 48%  
56 14% 34%  
57 8% 20%  
58 6% 12%  
59 3% 6%  
60 1.3% 2%  
61 0.6% 0.9%  
62 0.3% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
64 0% 0%  

CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 1.0% 99.6%  
48 4% 98.6%  
49 11% 95%  
50 15% 84%  
51 15% 69% Median
52 15% 54%  
53 13% 39%  
54 12% 26%  
55 8% 15%  
56 4% 7%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.7% 1.1%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations