Opinion Poll by Dedicated for MR, 23–27 June 2017

Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 20.3% 16.7% 15.3–17.7% 14.9–17.9% 14.6–18.0% 14.0–18.1%
CD&V 11.6% 10.5% 9.3–11.4% 9.0–11.5% 8.8–11.6% 8.3–11.7%
MR 9.6% 8.7% 7.4–7.9% 7.3–7.9% 7.2–7.9% 7.0–8.0%
PTB 2.0% 8.7% 7.5–8.0% 7.4–8.0% 7.2–8.0% 7.0–8.0%
Open Vld 9.8% 7.8% 6.8–8.6% 6.5–8.8% 6.3–8.8% 5.9–8.9%
Groen 5.3% 7.7% 6.7–8.5% 6.4–8.6% 6.2–8.7% 5.8–8.8%
Vlaams Belang 3.7% 7.2% 6.3–8.0% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.2% 5.4–8.3%
sp.a 8.8% 5.8% 5.0–6.6% 4.7–6.7% 4.5–6.8% 4.2–6.8%
PS 11.7% 5.7% 4.7–5.1% 4.6–5.1% 4.5–5.1% 4.3–5.1%
PVDA 1.8% 4.5% 3.8–5.2% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.4% 3.1–5.4%
Ecolo 3.3% 4.5% 3.5–3.9% 3.5–3.9% 3.4–3.9% 3.2–3.9%
cdH 5.0% 3.6% 2.8–3.1% 2.7–3.1% 2.6–3.1% 2.5–3.1%
DéFI 1.8% 2.4% 1.8–2.0% 1.8–2.0% 1.7–2.0% 1.6–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 33 27 24–29 23–29 23–30 22–31
CD&V 18 16 13–18 13–18 13–19 12–20
MR 20 18 16–20 16–20 15–21 14–21
PTB 2 17 15–20 14–20 14–20 13–21
Open Vld 14 12 10–12 9–13 8–14 8–16
Groen 6 11 10–12 10–13 9–13 7–15
Vlaams Belang 3 9 8–12 8–13 7–13 7–13
sp.a 13 8 6–9 6–10 5–11 5–11
PS 23 10 9–13 9–14 9–14 8–14
PVDA 0 5 3–6 3–8 3–9 2–9
Ecolo 6 8 7–9 6–10 5–10 5–10
cdH 9 6 4–8 4–8 4–8 4–9
DéFI 2 3 3 2–4 2–4 2–6

N-VA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.2% 99.9%  
22 1.0% 99.7%  
23 8% 98.7%  
24 14% 91%  
25 13% 77%  
26 14% 64%  
27 19% 50% Median
28 15% 31%  
29 13% 16%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.7% 1.0%  
32 0.2% 0.3%  
33 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

CD&V

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 0.4% 99.7%  
13 13% 99.3%  
14 10% 86%  
15 16% 76%  
16 21% 60% Median
17 10% 39%  
18 25% 28% Last Result
19 2% 3%  
20 0.9% 1.2%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

MR

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.7% 100%  
15 2% 99.3%  
16 11% 97%  
17 17% 86%  
18 24% 69% Median
19 18% 45%  
20 24% 28% Last Result
21 3% 4%  
22 0.2% 0.4%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

PTB

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 1.3% 99.9%  
14 5% 98.6%  
15 12% 94%  
16 21% 82%  
17 20% 61% Median
18 18% 41%  
19 12% 23%  
20 9% 11%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Open Vld

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 4% 99.8%  
9 3% 96%  
10 10% 93%  
11 18% 82%  
12 55% 64% Median
13 6% 9%  
14 2% 3% Last Result
15 0.9% 2%  
16 0.6% 0.8%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100% Last Result
7 0.8% 99.8%  
8 0.7% 99.0%  
9 2% 98%  
10 25% 96%  
11 43% 71% Median
12 22% 28%  
13 4% 6%  
14 1.1% 2%  
15 0.9% 1.0%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 3% 100%  
8 39% 97%  
9 8% 58% Median
10 12% 50%  
11 12% 38%  
12 17% 25%  
13 8% 8%  
14 0.2% 0.3%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

sp.a

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 3% 99.8%  
6 25% 97%  
7 16% 73%  
8 26% 57% Median
9 22% 30%  
10 4% 8%  
11 4% 4%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
14 0% 0%  

PS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 2% 99.8%  
9 20% 98%  
10 33% 78% Median
11 22% 44%  
12 7% 22%  
13 7% 15%  
14 8% 8%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

PVDA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 100%  
2 0.4% 99.8%  
3 27% 99.4%  
4 20% 72%  
5 20% 52% Median
6 23% 33%  
7 4% 10%  
8 3% 6%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 3% 99.8%  
6 7% 97% Last Result
7 14% 90%  
8 30% 76% Median
9 38% 46%  
10 8% 9%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

cdH

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 27% 99.9%  
5 18% 73%  
6 18% 55% Median
7 26% 36%  
8 9% 10%  
9 1.0% 1.0% Last Result
10 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 7% 100% Last Result
3 87% 93% Median
4 6% 7%  
5 0.3% 0.8%  
6 0.5% 0.5%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
CD&V – MR – Open Vld – Groen – sp.a – PS – Ecolo – cdH 109 89 100% 85–93 84–94 83–95 81–96
CD&V – PTB – Groen – sp.a – PS – PVDA – Ecolo – cdH 77 81 98% 77–85 76–86 76–87 74–89
N-VA – CD&V – MR – Open Vld – cdH 94 78 78% 74–82 73–82 72–83 70–85
N-VA – CD&V – MR – Open Vld 85 72 10% 68–76 67–76 66–77 65–79
CD&V – MR – Open Vld – Groen – Ecolo – cdH 73 71 4% 67–74 66–75 65–76 63–78
CD&V – MR – Open Vld – sp.a – PS – cdH 97 70 3% 66–74 65–75 64–76 62–77
MR – Open Vld – Groen – sp.a – PS – Ecolo 82 67 0.2% 64–71 63–72 62–73 60–75
PTB – Groen – sp.a – PS – PVDA – Ecolo – cdH 59 65 0% 62–69 61–70 60–71 59–72
CD&V – MR – Open Vld – PS – cdH 84 62 0% 58–66 57–67 56–68 55–69
PTB – Groen – sp.a – PS – PVDA – Ecolo 50 59 0% 56–63 55–64 54–65 52–67
CD&V – Groen – sp.a – PS – Ecolo – cdH 75 59 0% 55–63 54–64 53–65 52–67
CD&V – MR – Open Vld – cdH 61 52 0% 48–55 47–56 46–57 44–58
MR – Open Vld – sp.a – PS 70 48 0% 45–51 44–52 43–53 42–55
CD&V – sp.a – PS – cdH 63 40 0% 36–44 35–45 34–46 33–48

CD&V – MR – Open Vld – Groen – sp.a – PS – Ecolo – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.2% 99.9%  
81 0.5% 99.7%  
82 1.0% 99.1%  
83 2% 98%  
84 3% 96%  
85 5% 93%  
86 8% 88%  
87 10% 80%  
88 12% 70%  
89 14% 58% Median
90 13% 44%  
91 11% 31%  
92 8% 20%  
93 5% 12%  
94 3% 6%  
95 2% 3%  
96 0.8% 1.2%  
97 0.3% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – PTB – Groen – sp.a – PS – PVDA – Ecolo – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.5% 99.7%  
75 1.5% 99.2%  
76 3% 98% Majority
77 5% 95% Last Result
78 7% 90%  
79 10% 83%  
80 14% 72%  
81 14% 59% Median
82 14% 44%  
83 11% 31%  
84 8% 19%  
85 5% 11%  
86 3% 6%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.8% 1.3%  
89 0.3% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

N-VA – CD&V – MR – Open Vld – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.6% 99.6%  
71 1.1% 99.1%  
72 2% 98%  
73 4% 96%  
74 6% 92%  
75 8% 86%  
76 11% 78% Majority
77 13% 68%  
78 13% 55%  
79 13% 42% Median
80 11% 29%  
81 8% 18%  
82 5% 10%  
83 3% 5%  
84 1.3% 2%  
85 0.5% 0.8%  
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

N-VA – CD&V – MR – Open Vld

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.3% 99.8%  
65 0.7% 99.6%  
66 2% 98.9%  
67 3% 97%  
68 5% 95%  
69 7% 90%  
70 11% 82%  
71 12% 72%  
72 15% 59%  
73 14% 45% Median
74 12% 31%  
75 9% 19%  
76 6% 10% Majority
77 3% 4%  
78 1.0% 2%  
79 0.4% 0.6%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – MR – Open Vld – Groen – Ecolo – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.8%  
63 0.6% 99.6%  
64 1.3% 98.9%  
65 2% 98%  
66 4% 95%  
67 6% 92%  
68 8% 86%  
69 11% 78%  
70 13% 67%  
71 13% 54% Median
72 13% 41%  
73 11% 28% Last Result
74 8% 17%  
75 5% 9%  
76 2% 4% Majority
77 1.0% 2%  
78 0.4% 0.6%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

CD&V – MR – Open Vld – sp.a – PS – cdH

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.3% 99.9%  
62 0.6% 99.6%  
63 1.2% 99.0%  
64 2% 98%  
65 4% 96%  
66 6% 92%  
67 8% 86%  
68 11% 78%  
69 13% 67%  
70 13% 55% Median
71 12% 41%  
72 10% 29%  
73 8% 19%  
74 5% 11%  
75 3% 6%  
76 2% 3% Majority
77 0.7% 1.1%  
78 0.3% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

MR – Open Vld – Groen – sp.a – PS – Ecolo

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.4% 99.8%  
61 1.0% 99.4%  
62 2% 98%  
63 4% 96%  
64 7% 92%  
65 10% 86%  
66 13% 75%  
67 15% 62% Median
68 15% 47%  
69 12% 33%  
70 9% 21%  
71 6% 12%  
72 3% 6%  
73 2% 3%  
74 0.8% 1.3%  
75 0.3% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.2% Majority
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0% Last Result

PTB – Groen – sp.a – PS – PVDA – Ecolo – cdH

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.3% 99.9%  
59 0.8% 99.6% Last Result
60 2% 98.8%  
61 4% 97%  
62 8% 93%  
63 12% 86%  
64 15% 74%  
65 16% 59% Median
66 14% 43%  
67 11% 29%  
68 8% 18%  
69 5% 10%  
70 3% 5%  
71 1.4% 3%  
72 0.7% 1.2%  
73 0.3% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority

CD&V – MR – Open Vld – PS – cdH

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.3% 99.9%  
55 0.7% 99.5%  
56 2% 98.8%  
57 3% 97%  
58 5% 94%  
59 7% 90%  
60 10% 82%  
61 13% 72%  
62 14% 59% Median
63 14% 45%  
64 12% 32%  
65 9% 20%  
66 6% 11%  
67 3% 6%  
68 1.5% 3%  
69 0.7% 1.0%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0% Last Result

PTB – Groen – sp.a – PS – PVDA – Ecolo

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100% Last Result
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.8%  
53 0.9% 99.5%  
54 2% 98.6%  
55 4% 97%  
56 7% 93%  
57 11% 86%  
58 13% 75%  
59 14% 62% Median
60 13% 47%  
61 11% 34%  
62 9% 23%  
63 6% 14%  
64 4% 8%  
65 2% 4%  
66 1.1% 2%  
67 0.5% 0.9%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

CD&V – Groen – sp.a – PS – Ecolo – cdH

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9%  
52 0.7% 99.6%  
53 2% 98.9%  
54 3% 97%  
55 5% 94%  
56 7% 89%  
57 10% 82%  
58 12% 72%  
59 13% 60% Median
60 13% 46%  
61 11% 33%  
62 8% 22%  
63 6% 14%  
64 4% 8%  
65 2% 4%  
66 1.1% 2%  
67 0.5% 0.8%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – MR – Open Vld – cdH

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 0.6% 99.6%  
45 1.2% 99.0%  
46 2% 98%  
47 4% 95%  
48 6% 91%  
49 9% 85%  
50 12% 76%  
51 13% 64%  
52 14% 51% Median
53 13% 37%  
54 10% 24%  
55 7% 14%  
56 4% 7%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.8% 1.1%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

MR – Open Vld – sp.a – PS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 0.9% 99.5%  
43 2% 98.7%  
44 4% 97%  
45 7% 93%  
46 11% 85%  
47 15% 74%  
48 16% 60% Median
49 15% 44%  
50 12% 29%  
51 8% 17%  
52 5% 9%  
53 2% 4%  
54 1.1% 2%  
55 0.5% 0.7%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – sp.a – PS – cdH

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.7% 99.7%  
34 2% 99.1%  
35 3% 97%  
36 5% 94%  
37 8% 89%  
38 11% 81%  
39 13% 69%  
40 14% 56% Median
41 13% 43%  
42 10% 30%  
43 8% 20%  
44 5% 12%  
45 3% 6%  
46 2% 3%  
47 0.9% 1.4%  
48 0.4% 0.6%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations