Opinion Poll by Ipsos for RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws, 25 August–3 September 2017

Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 20.3% 18.9% 17.0–17.9% 16.7–17.9% 16.5–17.9% 16.1–18.0%
CD&V 11.6% 10.1% 8.5–9.3% 8.4–9.3% 8.2–9.3% 7.9–9.3%
Groen 5.3% 8.3% 7.5–8.9% 7.2–9.1% 7.1–9.1% 6.7–9.2%
MR 9.6% 8.1% 7.0–7.4% 6.9–7.4% 6.9–7.4% 6.7–7.5%
sp.a 8.8% 7.7% 6.3–6.9% 6.2–7.0% 6.0–7.0% 5.8–7.0%
Open Vld 9.8% 7.6% 6.3–6.9% 6.1–6.9% 6.0–6.9% 5.7–7.0%
PS 11.7% 7.3% 6.3–6.7% 6.2–6.7% 6.1–6.7% 5.9–6.7%
PTB 2.0% 6.1% 5.2–5.5% 5.1–5.5% 5.0–5.5% 4.8–5.5%
Vlaams Belang 3.7% 5.0% 3.9–4.4% 3.8–4.5% 3.7–4.5% 3.5–4.5%
Ecolo 3.3% 4.8% 4.0–4.3% 4.0–4.3% 3.9–4.4% 3.7–4.4%
DéFI 1.8% 3.3% 2.7–2.9% 2.6–2.9% 2.6–2.9% 2.5–2.9%
PVDA 1.8% 3.1% 2.6–3.5% 2.4–3.6% 2.3–3.7% 2.1–3.7%
cdH 5.0% 3.1% 2.5–2.7% 2.4–2.7% 2.4–2.7% 2.3–2.7%
Parti Populaire 1.5% 1.5% 1.1–1.3% 1.1–1.3% 1.1–1.3% 1.0–1.3%
La Droite 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2–0.4% 0.2–0.4% 0.2–0.4%
ISLAM 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 33 30 28–32 27–33 27–33 26–35
CD&V 18 14 13–18 13–18 13–18 13–18
Groen 6 12 11–13 11–14 10–14 9–16
MR 20 17 16–18 15–19 15–19 15–20
sp.a 13 11 9–13 9–13 9–13 9–14
Open Vld 14 11 9–12 9–12 8–13 8–13
PS 23 15 14–16 14–17 13–17 12–18
PTB 2 11 10–12 10–12 9–13 9–14
Vlaams Belang 3 7 5–7 5–8 5–8 3–8
Ecolo 6 9 8–10 8–10 7–10 7–11
DéFI 2 6 4–7 3–7 3–7 3–8
PVDA 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–4
cdH 9 5 4–6 4–6 4–7 3–8
Parti Populaire 1 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
La Droite 0 0 0 0 0 0
ISLAM 0 0 0 0 0 0

N-VA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.3% 100%  
26 2% 99.7%  
27 4% 98%  
28 12% 94%  
29 23% 83%  
30 22% 60% Median
31 23% 38%  
32 9% 14%  
33 4% 5% Last Result
34 1.2% 2%  
35 0.5% 0.7%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

CD&V

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.3% 99.8%  
13 13% 99.5%  
14 47% 86% Median
15 11% 39%  
16 8% 27%  
17 7% 19%  
18 12% 12% Last Result
19 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.4% 99.9%  
10 4% 99.5%  
11 27% 95%  
12 56% 68% Median
13 6% 12%  
14 3% 5%  
15 1.1% 2%  
16 0.9% 0.9%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

MR

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.4% 100%  
15 9% 99.6%  
16 35% 91%  
17 24% 56% Median
18 23% 32%  
19 7% 9%  
20 1.3% 1.5% Last Result
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

sp.a

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.3% 99.9%  
9 22% 99.6%  
10 15% 77%  
11 38% 63% Median
12 12% 24%  
13 11% 12% Last Result
14 1.1% 1.3%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Open Vld

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 5% 99.8%  
9 6% 95%  
10 10% 89%  
11 45% 79% Median
12 29% 34%  
13 4% 5%  
14 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

PS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 0.5% 99.7%  
13 2% 99.2%  
14 46% 97%  
15 28% 51% Median
16 15% 23%  
17 7% 8%  
18 1.0% 1.0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

PTB

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 4% 99.9%  
10 25% 96%  
11 45% 72% Median
12 24% 27%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.4% 0.5%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 0.5% 99.8% Last Result
4 0.7% 99.2%  
5 9% 98.6%  
6 27% 90%  
7 54% 63% Median
8 9% 9%  
9 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100% Last Result
7 3% 99.8%  
8 13% 97%  
9 65% 85% Median
10 17% 19%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 8% 100%  
4 22% 92%  
5 8% 71%  
6 20% 63% Median
7 40% 42%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

PVDA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 26% 99.9%  
2 37% 74% Median
3 36% 37%  
4 0.8% 1.1%  
5 0.3% 0.4%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

cdH

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 1.3% 100%  
4 25% 98.7%  
5 59% 74% Median
6 11% 15%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0.8% 0.8%  
9 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Populaire

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 66% 100% Median
1 10% 34% Last Result
2 24% 24%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

La Droite

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La Droite page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

ISLAM

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ISLAM page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
CD&V – Groen – MR – sp.a – Open Vld – PS – Ecolo – cdH 109 94 100% 91–97 90–98 90–99 88–100
CD&V – Groen – sp.a – PS – PTB – Ecolo – PVDA – cdH 77 79 96% 77–82 76–83 75–84 74–85
N-VA – CD&V – MR – Open Vld – cdH 94 78 83% 75–80 74–81 74–82 72–83
Groen – MR – sp.a – Open Vld – PS – Ecolo 82 74 31% 71–77 70–78 70–79 68–81
CD&V – MR – sp.a – Open Vld – PS – cdH 97 73 16% 70–76 70–77 69–78 67–79
N-VA – CD&V – MR – Open Vld 85 73 9% 70–75 69–76 69–77 68–78
CD&V – Groen – MR – Open Vld – Ecolo – cdH 73 68 0.2% 66–72 65–72 64–73 63–75
CD&V – Groen – sp.a – PS – Ecolo – cdH 75 66 0% 64–69 63–70 62–70 61–72
Groen – sp.a – PS – PTB – Ecolo – PVDA – cdH 59 64 0% 62–67 61–68 60–68 59–70
CD&V – MR – Open Vld – PS – cdH 84 62 0% 60–66 59–66 58–67 57–69
Groen – sp.a – PS – PTB – Ecolo – PVDA 50 60 0% 57–62 56–63 55–64 54–65
MR – sp.a – Open Vld – PS 70 53 0% 51–56 50–57 49–58 48–59
CD&V – MR – Open Vld – cdH 61 48 0% 45–51 44–51 44–52 42–54
CD&V – sp.a – PS – cdH 63 45 0% 43–48 42–49 42–50 41–51

CD&V – Groen – MR – sp.a – Open Vld – PS – Ecolo – cdH

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.5% 99.8%  
89 1.3% 99.4%  
90 3% 98%  
91 8% 95%  
92 13% 87%  
93 16% 74%  
94 17% 59% Median
95 15% 42%  
96 12% 27%  
97 8% 15%  
98 4% 8%  
99 2% 3%  
100 0.8% 1.3%  
101 0.3% 0.4%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – Groen – sp.a – PS – PTB – Ecolo – PVDA – cdH

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.3% 99.9%  
74 1.0% 99.6%  
75 3% 98.6%  
76 6% 96% Majority
77 10% 90% Last Result
78 16% 80%  
79 19% 64% Median
80 17% 45%  
81 13% 28%  
82 8% 15%  
83 4% 7%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.8% 1.0%  
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

N-VA – CD&V – MR – Open Vld – cdH

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.5% 99.8%  
73 2% 99.3%  
74 5% 98%  
75 10% 93%  
76 15% 83% Majority
77 18% 68% Median
78 17% 51%  
79 14% 33%  
80 10% 19%  
81 6% 10%  
82 3% 4%  
83 1.0% 1.5%  
84 0.3% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Groen – MR – sp.a – Open Vld – PS – Ecolo

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.5% 99.8%  
69 1.4% 99.4%  
70 3% 98%  
71 7% 95%  
72 11% 88%  
73 15% 77%  
74 16% 63%  
75 15% 47% Median
76 13% 31% Majority
77 9% 19%  
78 5% 10%  
79 3% 4%  
80 1.2% 2%  
81 0.4% 0.6%  
82 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
83 0% 0%  

CD&V – MR – sp.a – Open Vld – PS – cdH

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.4% 99.9%  
68 1.2% 99.4%  
69 3% 98%  
70 7% 95%  
71 12% 89%  
72 16% 77%  
73 17% 61% Median
74 16% 44%  
75 12% 28%  
76 8% 16% Majority
77 5% 8%  
78 2% 4%  
79 0.9% 1.4%  
80 0.3% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

N-VA – CD&V – MR – Open Vld

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.3% 99.9%  
68 1.1% 99.5%  
69 4% 98%  
70 10% 95%  
71 15% 85%  
72 19% 70% Median
73 18% 52%  
74 15% 34%  
75 10% 19%  
76 6% 9% Majority
77 2% 4%  
78 0.9% 1.2%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – Groen – MR – Open Vld – Ecolo – cdH

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.8% 99.7%  
64 2% 98.9%  
65 6% 97%  
66 10% 91%  
67 15% 81%  
68 17% 66% Median
69 16% 49%  
70 13% 32%  
71 9% 19%  
72 5% 10%  
73 3% 5% Last Result
74 1.2% 2%  
75 0.4% 0.6%  
76 0.1% 0.2% Majority
77 0% 0%  

CD&V – Groen – sp.a – PS – Ecolo – cdH

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.2% 100%  
61 0.9% 99.8%  
62 2% 98.9%  
63 6% 97%  
64 12% 91%  
65 18% 80%  
66 19% 61% Median
67 17% 42%  
68 12% 25%  
69 7% 13%  
70 4% 6%  
71 2% 2%  
72 0.6% 0.8%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

Groen – sp.a – PS – PTB – Ecolo – PVDA – cdH

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
60 2% 99.4%  
61 5% 97%  
62 9% 92%  
63 14% 83%  
64 18% 68%  
65 19% 50% Median
66 15% 31%  
67 9% 15%  
68 4% 6%  
69 1.5% 2%  
70 0.5% 0.7%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

CD&V – MR – Open Vld – PS – cdH

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.9%  
57 0.8% 99.7%  
58 2% 98.9%  
59 6% 97%  
60 12% 91%  
61 15% 79%  
62 16% 64% Median
63 16% 47%  
64 13% 32%  
65 9% 19%  
66 5% 10%  
67 3% 5%  
68 1.4% 2%  
69 0.5% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0% Last Result

Groen – sp.a – PS – PTB – Ecolo – PVDA

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100% Last Result
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.7% 99.8%  
55 2% 99.2%  
56 5% 97%  
57 9% 92%  
58 14% 82%  
59 18% 69%  
60 18% 51% Median
61 15% 33%  
62 10% 18%  
63 5% 8%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.7% 1.1%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

MR – sp.a – Open Vld – PS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.2% 100%  
48 0.9% 99.7%  
49 2% 98.9%  
50 5% 97%  
51 10% 91%  
52 16% 81%  
53 17% 66%  
54 16% 49% Median
55 14% 32%  
56 9% 18%  
57 5% 9%  
58 2% 4%  
59 1.0% 1.3%  
60 0.3% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – MR – Open Vld – cdH

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.5% 99.8%  
43 2% 99.3%  
44 4% 98%  
45 10% 94%  
46 15% 84%  
47 18% 68% Median
48 17% 50%  
49 13% 33%  
50 9% 20%  
51 6% 11%  
52 3% 5%  
53 1.3% 2%  
54 0.5% 0.6%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – sp.a – PS – cdH

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.7%  
42 4% 98%  
43 12% 94%  
44 19% 82%  
45 19% 63% Median
46 18% 44%  
47 12% 26%  
48 8% 14%  
49 4% 6%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.6% 0.9%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations