Opinion Poll by TNS for De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique, 11 September–5 October 2017

Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 20.3% 17.6% 15.8–16.6% 15.6–16.7% 15.4–16.7% 15.0–16.7%
CD&V 11.6% 12.2% 10.6–11.3% 10.4–11.3% 10.2–11.4% 9.9–11.4%
Open Vld 9.8% 9.7% 8.3–8.9% 8.1–9.0% 8.0–9.0% 7.7–9.0%
Groen 5.3% 8.6% 7.7–9.2% 7.5–9.3% 7.3–9.4% 7.0–9.4%
MR 9.6% 8.1% 7.2–7.5% 7.1–7.5% 7.0–7.6% 6.8–7.6%
PS 11.7% 7.7% 6.8–7.2% 6.7–7.2% 6.6–7.2% 6.5–7.2%
Ecolo 3.3% 7.2% 6.3–6.6% 6.2–6.6% 6.1–6.6% 6.0–6.6%
sp.a 8.8% 6.9% 5.7–6.2% 5.5–6.3% 5.4–6.3% 5.1–6.3%
PTB 2.0% 5.3% 4.5–4.8% 4.4–4.8% 4.3–4.8% 4.2–4.8%
Vlaams Belang 3.7% 4.1% 3.1–3.6% 3.0–3.6% 2.9–3.6% 2.7–3.6%
cdH 5.0% 3.3% 2.6–2.9% 2.6–2.9% 2.5–2.9% 2.4–2.9%
PVDA 1.8% 3.1% 2.6–3.6% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.2–3.7%
DéFI 1.8% 2.8% 2.3–2.5% 2.3–2.5% 2.2–2.5% 2.1–2.5%
Parti Populaire 1.5% 0.3% 0.1–0.2% 0.1–0.2% 0.1–0.2% 0.1–0.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 33 28 25–29 24–30 24–30 23–31
CD&V 18 18 17–20 16–21 15–21 14–22
Open Vld 14 13 12–16 12–17 12–17 12–18
Groen 6 12 11–13 11–14 10–14 10–16
MR 20 16 15–17 15–18 14–18 14–19
PS 23 15 14–17 14–17 14–17 13–18
Ecolo 6 14 13–16 12–16 12–16 11–17
sp.a 13 9 8–11 8–11 8–11 6–13
PTB 2 9 8–10 8–10 8–11 7–11
Vlaams Belang 3 5 2–6 2–6 2–7 2–7
cdH 9 4 4–5 4–5 4–6 4–7
PVDA 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–4
DéFI 2 3 2–5 2–6 2–6 2–6
Parti Populaire 1 0 0 0 0 0

N-VA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.5% 99.9%  
24 6% 99.4%  
25 12% 93%  
26 13% 81%  
27 18% 68%  
28 29% 50% Median
29 16% 21%  
30 4% 5%  
31 1.0% 1.4%  
32 0.2% 0.3%  
33 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

CD&V

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.8% 99.9%  
15 2% 99.0%  
16 3% 97%  
17 6% 95%  
18 68% 88% Last Result, Median
19 8% 21%  
20 7% 12%  
21 4% 6%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.3% 0.4%  
24 0% 0%  

Open Vld

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.4% 100%  
12 19% 99.6%  
13 35% 81% Median
14 15% 45% Last Result
15 11% 30%  
16 9% 19%  
17 8% 10%  
18 1.4% 1.4%  
19 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 3% 99.9%  
11 17% 97%  
12 68% 80% Median
13 6% 12%  
14 4% 6%  
15 1.3% 2%  
16 1.0% 1.1%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

MR

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.5% 100%  
14 4% 99.5%  
15 16% 96%  
16 45% 80% Median
17 28% 35%  
18 6% 7%  
19 1.2% 1.2%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

PS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.6% 99.9%  
14 17% 99.3%  
15 40% 82% Median
16 30% 43%  
17 11% 13%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 2% 100%  
12 5% 98%  
13 14% 93%  
14 30% 79% Median
15 34% 50%  
16 15% 16%  
17 0.9% 0.9%  
18 0% 0%  

sp.a

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.8% 100%  
7 2% 99.1%  
8 11% 98%  
9 59% 86% Median
10 14% 28%  
11 12% 14%  
12 1.2% 2%  
13 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
14 0% 0%  

PTB

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.2% 100%  
7 1.1% 99.8%  
8 19% 98.8%  
9 47% 79% Median
10 29% 33%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.4% 100%  
2 22% 99.6%  
3 5% 77% Last Result
4 5% 72%  
5 46% 67% Median
6 17% 22%  
7 5% 5%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

cdH

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.3% 100%  
4 71% 99.7% Median
5 25% 29%  
6 3% 4%  
7 0.5% 0.6%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0% Last Result

PVDA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 25% 99.9%  
2 41% 75% Median
3 33% 34%  
4 0.4% 0.8%  
5 0.3% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 26% 100% Last Result
3 30% 74% Median
4 16% 44%  
5 20% 27%  
6 7% 7%  
7 0% 0%  

Parti Populaire

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
CD&V – Open Vld – Groen – MR – PS – Ecolo – sp.a – cdH 109 104 100% 101–107 100–107 99–108 98–110
CD&V – Groen – PS – Ecolo – sp.a – PTB – cdH – PVDA 77 85 100% 82–88 81–89 81–89 79–91
Open Vld – Groen – MR – PS – Ecolo – sp.a 82 81 99.4% 78–84 77–85 77–85 75–87
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH 94 80 98% 77–83 76–84 76–84 75–86
CD&V – Open Vld – Groen – MR – Ecolo – cdH 73 79 94% 76–82 75–83 75–84 73–85
CD&V – Open Vld – MR – PS – sp.a – cdH 97 77 77% 74–80 74–81 73–82 72–83
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR 85 75 47% 73–78 72–79 72–80 70–81
CD&V – Groen – PS – Ecolo – sp.a – cdH 75 74 17% 71–76 70–77 70–78 68–80
CD&V – Open Vld – MR – PS – cdH 84 68 0.1% 65–71 65–72 64–73 63–74
Groen – PS – Ecolo – sp.a – PTB – cdH – PVDA 59 67 0% 64–69 63–70 63–71 62–72
Groen – PS – Ecolo – sp.a – PTB – PVDA 50 62 0% 60–65 59–66 58–66 57–68
Open Vld – MR – PS – sp.a 70 55 0% 52–57 51–58 51–59 50–60
CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH 61 52 0% 50–55 50–56 49–57 48–59
CD&V – PS – sp.a – cdH 63 47 0% 45–50 44–50 44–51 42–53

CD&V – Open Vld – Groen – MR – PS – Ecolo – sp.a – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0.2% 100%  
98 0.8% 99.8%  
99 2% 99.0%  
100 5% 97%  
101 10% 91% Median
102 14% 82%  
103 16% 68%  
104 16% 52%  
105 14% 35%  
106 10% 21%  
107 6% 10%  
108 3% 5%  
109 1.2% 2% Last Result
110 0.4% 0.6%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

CD&V – Groen – PS – Ecolo – sp.a – PTB – cdH – PVDA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100% Last Result
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.5% 99.8%  
80 2% 99.3%  
81 4% 98%  
82 8% 94%  
83 13% 85% Median
84 17% 72%  
85 18% 54%  
86 15% 37%  
87 10% 22%  
88 6% 11%  
89 3% 5%  
90 1.3% 2%  
91 0.5% 0.8%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Open Vld – Groen – MR – PS – Ecolo – sp.a

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.5% 99.9%  
76 2% 99.4% Majority
77 4% 98%  
78 7% 94%  
79 12% 87% Median
80 16% 75%  
81 17% 59%  
82 16% 42% Last Result
83 12% 27%  
84 8% 14%  
85 4% 6%  
86 2% 2%  
87 0.6% 0.8%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 1.3% 99.6%  
76 4% 98% Majority
77 9% 94%  
78 15% 86%  
79 18% 71% Median
80 17% 53%  
81 14% 36%  
82 10% 23%  
83 7% 12%  
84 3% 5%  
85 1.3% 2%  
86 0.4% 0.5%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – Open Vld – Groen – MR – Ecolo – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
74 1.4% 99.4%  
75 4% 98%  
76 8% 94% Majority
77 14% 86% Median
78 17% 72%  
79 16% 56%  
80 14% 40%  
81 11% 25%  
82 8% 14%  
83 4% 6%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.7% 1.0%  
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

CD&V – Open Vld – MR – PS – sp.a – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.2% 100%  
72 0.7% 99.8%  
73 3% 99.1%  
74 7% 96%  
75 12% 89% Median
76 16% 77% Majority
77 17% 61%  
78 16% 44%  
79 12% 29%  
80 8% 16%  
81 5% 8%  
82 2% 4%  
83 0.9% 1.4%  
84 0.3% 0.5%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.5% 99.9%  
71 2% 99.4%  
72 5% 98%  
73 10% 92%  
74 16% 82%  
75 19% 66% Median
76 17% 47% Majority
77 13% 31%  
78 9% 18%  
79 6% 9%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.7% 0.9%  
82 0.2% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – Groen – PS – Ecolo – sp.a – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.5% 99.8%  
69 2% 99.2%  
70 4% 98%  
71 9% 93%  
72 15% 84% Median
73 19% 69%  
74 19% 50%  
75 14% 31% Last Result
76 9% 17% Majority
77 5% 8%  
78 2% 4%  
79 0.9% 1.5%  
80 0.4% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

CD&V – Open Vld – MR – PS – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.3% 99.9%  
63 0.8% 99.6%  
64 3% 98.8%  
65 9% 96%  
66 14% 87% Median
67 17% 73%  
68 17% 55%  
69 14% 39%  
70 11% 25%  
71 7% 14%  
72 4% 7%  
73 2% 3%  
74 0.8% 1.2%  
75 0.3% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0% Last Result

Groen – PS – Ecolo – sp.a – PTB – cdH – PVDA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100% Last Result
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.3% 99.9%  
62 1.4% 99.6%  
63 4% 98%  
64 9% 94%  
65 15% 85% Median
66 19% 70%  
67 19% 51%  
68 15% 32%  
69 9% 17%  
70 5% 7%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.6% 0.8%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Groen – PS – Ecolo – sp.a – PTB – PVDA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100% Last Result
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0.8% 99.8%  
58 2% 99.0%  
59 6% 97%  
60 11% 91%  
61 16% 80% Median
62 19% 64%  
63 18% 45%  
64 13% 27%  
65 8% 14%  
66 4% 6%  
67 1.4% 2%  
68 0.4% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Open Vld – MR – PS – sp.a

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 1.0% 99.8%  
51 4% 98.8%  
52 10% 95%  
53 15% 85% Median
54 18% 70%  
55 18% 52%  
56 14% 34%  
57 10% 20%  
58 6% 10%  
59 3% 4%  
60 1.0% 1.4%  
61 0.3% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 1.0% 99.6%  
49 3% 98.6%  
50 11% 95%  
51 18% 84% Median
52 18% 66%  
53 16% 48%  
54 13% 32%  
55 10% 19%  
56 5% 10%  
57 3% 4%  
58 1.2% 2%  
59 0.4% 0.6%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – PS – sp.a – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.5% 99.8%  
43 1.3% 99.3%  
44 3% 98%  
45 10% 95%  
46 20% 84% Median
47 23% 64%  
48 19% 41%  
49 12% 22%  
50 6% 10%  
51 3% 5%  
52 1.2% 2%  
53 0.5% 0.6%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations