Opinion Poll by Ipsos for RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws, 27 November–4 December 2017

Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 20.3% 18.7% 16.8–17.7% 16.6–17.7% 16.4–17.7% 16.0–17.7%
CD&V 11.6% 8.8% 7.4–8.0% 7.2–8.1% 7.1–8.1% 6.8–8.1%
Groen 5.3% 8.1% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–8.9% 6.9–8.9% 6.6–9.0%
MR 9.6% 8.0% 7.0–7.4% 6.9–7.4% 6.9–7.4% 6.7–7.4%
Open Vld 9.8% 7.6% 6.3–6.9% 6.2–6.9% 6.0–7.0% 5.8–7.0%
PS 11.7% 7.3% 6.4–6.7% 6.3–6.7% 6.2–6.7% 6.0–6.8%
sp.a 8.8% 6.8% 5.6–6.2% 5.4–6.2% 5.3–6.2% 5.0–6.2%
Vlaams Belang 3.7% 6.5% 5.3–5.8% 5.1–5.9% 5.0–5.9% 4.8–5.9%
PTB 2.0% 6.4% 5.5–5.9% 5.4–5.9% 5.3–5.9% 5.2–5.9%
Ecolo 3.3% 4.5% 3.8–4.0% 3.7–4.0% 3.6–4.0% 3.5–4.1%
PVDA 1.8% 3.4% 2.9–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.1%
DéFI 1.8% 3.2% 2.6–2.8% 2.5–2.8% 2.5–2.8% 2.4–2.8%
cdH 5.0% 2.9% 2.3–2.6% 2.3–2.6% 2.2–2.6% 2.1–2.6%
Parti Populaire 1.5% 1.5% 1.1–1.2% 1.0–1.2% 1.0–1.2% 0.9–1.2%
La Droite 0.4% 0.7% 0.5–0.7% 0.5–0.7% 0.4–0.7% 0.4–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 33 30 29–33 28–34 28–34 26–35
CD&V 18 13 12–15 11–15 11–16 10–17
Groen 6 12 11–13 10–14 10–14 10–15
MR 20 16 15–19 15–19 15–20 14–20
Open Vld 14 12 10–12 9–13 9–13 8–14
PS 23 15 14–17 13–17 13–18 12–18
sp.a 13 10 9–11 8–11 7–12 6–13
Vlaams Belang 3 8 7–10 7–11 7–11 7–12
PTB 2 11 10–13 10–13 10–13 9–14
Ecolo 6 9 7–10 7–10 7–10 6–11
PVDA 0 3 1–4 1–4 1–5 1–6
DéFI 2 6 3–6 3–7 3–7 2–7
cdH 9 4 3–6 3–6 3–6 2–7
Parti Populaire 1 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
La Droite 0 0 0 0 0 0

N-VA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.5% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.4%  
28 6% 98%  
29 13% 92%  
30 32% 78% Median
31 17% 46%  
32 14% 28%  
33 8% 14% Last Result
34 4% 6%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

CD&V

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 1.1% 99.8%  
11 8% 98.8%  
12 9% 90%  
13 41% 82% Median
14 30% 40%  
15 7% 10%  
16 2% 3%  
17 0.7% 1.1%  
18 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
19 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 7% 99.9%  
11 38% 93%  
12 38% 55% Median
13 11% 17%  
14 4% 7%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.3% 0.4%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

MR

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 2% 99.9%  
15 27% 98%  
16 22% 70% Median
17 19% 48%  
18 15% 29%  
19 10% 14%  
20 3% 4% Last Result
21 0.5% 0.5%  
22 0% 0%  

Open Vld

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 2% 100%  
9 4% 98%  
10 16% 94%  
11 22% 78%  
12 51% 56% Median
13 4% 5%  
14 1.1% 2% Last Result
15 0.3% 0.4%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

PS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 2% 99.8%  
13 3% 98%  
14 6% 95%  
15 48% 89% Median
16 29% 41%  
17 9% 12%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

sp.a

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.0% 100%  
7 2% 99.0%  
8 3% 97%  
9 42% 94%  
10 22% 52% Median
11 26% 29%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.6% 0.9% Last Result
14 0.2% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.2% 100%  
7 13% 99.8%  
8 58% 86% Median
9 12% 29%  
10 8% 17%  
11 7% 9%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.5% 0.5%  
14 0% 0%  

PTB

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 2% 100%  
10 26% 98%  
11 40% 72% Median
12 22% 33%  
13 8% 10%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 2% 99.9% Last Result
7 11% 98%  
8 20% 87%  
9 29% 67% Median
10 37% 38%  
11 1.1% 1.2%  
12 0% 0%  

PVDA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 11% 100%  
2 22% 89%  
3 55% 67% Median
4 10% 13%  
5 2% 3%  
6 0.9% 1.0%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 2% 100% Last Result
3 17% 98%  
4 7% 80%  
5 13% 73%  
6 51% 60% Median
7 8% 9%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

cdH

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.5% 100%  
3 15% 99.5%  
4 40% 85% Median
5 34% 45%  
6 9% 11%  
7 1.3% 1.4%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Populaire

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Median
1 12% 26% Last Result
2 14% 14%  
3 0% 0%  

La Droite

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La Droite page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
CD&V – Groen – MR – Open Vld – PS – sp.a – Ecolo – cdH 109 91 100% 88–94 88–95 87–96 85–97
CD&V – Groen – PS – sp.a – PTB – Ecolo – PVDA – cdH 77 77 78% 74–80 73–81 72–82 71–83
N-VA – CD&V – MR – Open Vld – cdH 94 76 62% 73–79 72–80 72–81 70–82
Groen – MR – Open Vld – PS – sp.a – Ecolo 82 74 21% 71–77 70–77 69–78 68–80
N-VA – CD&V – MR – Open Vld 85 72 6% 69–75 68–76 68–76 66–78
CD&V – MR – Open Vld – PS – sp.a – cdH 97 71 2% 68–74 67–75 66–75 65–77
CD&V – Groen – MR – Open Vld – Ecolo – cdH 73 66 0% 63–69 63–70 62–71 60–72
Groen – PS – sp.a – PTB – Ecolo – PVDA – cdH 59 64 0% 61–67 60–68 60–68 58–70
CD&V – Groen – PS – sp.a – Ecolo – cdH 75 64 0% 60–66 60–67 59–68 57–69
CD&V – MR – Open Vld – PS – cdH 84 61 0% 58–64 57–65 57–65 55–67
Groen – PS – sp.a – PTB – Ecolo – PVDA 50 60 0% 57–63 56–63 55–64 54–65
MR – Open Vld – PS – sp.a 70 53 0% 50–56 50–57 49–57 48–59
CD&V – MR – Open Vld – cdH 61 46 0% 43–49 42–49 41–50 40–51
CD&V – PS – sp.a – cdH 63 43 0% 40–45 39–46 39–46 37–48

CD&V – Groen – MR – Open Vld – PS – sp.a – Ecolo – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.4% 99.9%  
86 1.2% 99.5%  
87 3% 98%  
88 6% 96%  
89 10% 90%  
90 14% 80%  
91 17% 66% Median
92 17% 48%  
93 13% 31%  
94 9% 18%  
95 5% 9%  
96 2% 4%  
97 0.9% 1.3%  
98 0.3% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – Groen – PS – sp.a – PTB – Ecolo – PVDA – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.7% 99.7%  
72 2% 99.0%  
73 3% 97%  
74 6% 94%  
75 10% 88%  
76 13% 78% Majority
77 15% 64% Last Result, Median
78 16% 49%  
79 14% 33%  
80 10% 19%  
81 6% 9%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.7% 0.9%  
84 0.2% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

N-VA – CD&V – MR – Open Vld – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.5% 99.8%  
71 1.4% 99.3%  
72 3% 98%  
73 7% 94%  
74 11% 88%  
75 14% 77% Median
76 16% 62% Majority
77 15% 46%  
78 13% 31%  
79 9% 18%  
80 5% 9%  
81 3% 4%  
82 1.0% 1.4%  
83 0.3% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Groen – MR – Open Vld – PS – sp.a – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.7% 99.7%  
69 2% 99.0%  
70 4% 97%  
71 8% 93%  
72 14% 85%  
73 18% 72%  
74 18% 54% Median
75 15% 36%  
76 10% 21% Majority
77 6% 11%  
78 3% 5%  
79 1.1% 2%  
80 0.4% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0% Last Result

N-VA – CD&V – MR – Open Vld

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.5% 99.8%  
67 2% 99.3%  
68 4% 98%  
69 9% 94%  
70 13% 85%  
71 16% 71% Median
72 17% 55%  
73 14% 38%  
74 11% 24%  
75 7% 13%  
76 4% 6% Majority
77 2% 2%  
78 0.6% 0.8%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – MR – Open Vld – PS – sp.a – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.3% 99.9%  
65 1.0% 99.6%  
66 3% 98.6%  
67 5% 96%  
68 9% 91%  
69 13% 82%  
70 16% 70% Median
71 16% 54%  
72 14% 38%  
73 11% 24%  
74 7% 13%  
75 4% 6%  
76 1.4% 2% Majority
77 0.5% 0.6%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – Groen – MR – Open Vld – Ecolo – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.4% 99.9%  
61 1.2% 99.5%  
62 3% 98%  
63 6% 95%  
64 11% 89%  
65 15% 78%  
66 17% 63% Median
67 16% 46%  
68 13% 30%  
69 9% 17%  
70 5% 8%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.8% 1.2%  
73 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Groen – PS – sp.a – PTB – Ecolo – PVDA – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.6% 99.8%  
59 2% 99.2% Last Result
60 4% 98%  
61 7% 94%  
62 11% 87%  
63 15% 76%  
64 17% 61% Median
65 17% 44%  
66 13% 27%  
67 8% 14%  
68 4% 6%  
69 1.4% 2%  
70 0.4% 0.6%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

CD&V – Groen – PS – sp.a – Ecolo – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.5% 99.8%  
58 1.2% 99.3%  
59 3% 98%  
60 5% 95%  
61 9% 90%  
62 13% 81%  
63 16% 67% Median
64 17% 51%  
65 15% 34%  
66 10% 18%  
67 5% 8%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.6% 0.7%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – MR – Open Vld – PS – cdH

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.6% 99.8%  
56 2% 99.3%  
57 4% 98%  
58 8% 94%  
59 12% 86%  
60 16% 74% Median
61 17% 58%  
62 15% 41%  
63 12% 26%  
64 8% 14%  
65 4% 6%  
66 2% 2%  
67 0.5% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0% Last Result

Groen – PS – sp.a – PTB – Ecolo – PVDA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100% Last Result
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 0.9% 99.6%  
55 2% 98.7%  
56 5% 96%  
57 9% 91%  
58 13% 83%  
59 16% 70%  
60 17% 54% Median
61 15% 37%  
62 11% 22%  
63 6% 11%  
64 3% 5%  
65 1.1% 2%  
66 0.3% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

MR – Open Vld – PS – sp.a

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.9%  
48 1.2% 99.5%  
49 3% 98%  
50 6% 95%  
51 12% 89%  
52 18% 77%  
53 18% 59% Median
54 16% 41%  
55 12% 26%  
56 8% 14%  
57 4% 6%  
58 2% 2%  
59 0.5% 0.7%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – MR – Open Vld – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.8% 99.7%  
41 2% 98.9%  
42 5% 97%  
43 9% 92%  
44 14% 82%  
45 17% 69% Median
46 17% 52%  
47 14% 35%  
48 10% 21%  
49 6% 11%  
50 3% 4%  
51 1.0% 1.4%  
52 0.3% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – PS – sp.a – cdH

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.5% 99.8%  
38 1.4% 99.3%  
39 4% 98%  
40 7% 94%  
41 12% 87%  
42 17% 75% Median
43 20% 58%  
44 18% 38%  
45 12% 19%  
46 5% 8%  
47 2% 2%  
48 0.5% 0.6%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations