Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 27 November–3 December 2018
Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 20.3% | 17.7% | 15.8–16.7% | 15.6–16.7% | 15.4–16.7% | 15.0–16.7% |
| CD&V | 11.6% | 9.1% | 7.7–8.4% | 7.5–8.4% | 7.4–8.4% | 7.1–8.4% |
| PS | 11.7% | 8.8% | 7.8–8.2% | 7.7–8.2% | 7.6–8.2% | 7.4–8.2% |
| Open Vld | 9.8% | 8.4% | 7.0–7.7% | 6.9–7.7% | 6.7–7.7% | 6.4–7.7% |
| MR | 9.6% | 7.8% | 6.8–7.1% | 6.7–7.2% | 6.6–7.2% | 6.4–7.2% |
| sp.a | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.4–7.0% | 6.2–7.0% | 6.1–7.0% | 5.8–7.0% |
| Groen | 5.3% | 7.6% | 6.8–8.2% | 6.6–8.3% | 6.4–8.3% | 6.0–8.4% |
| Vlaams Belang | 3.7% | 7.4% | 6.1–6.7% | 5.9–6.7% | 5.8–6.7% | 5.5–6.7% |
| Ecolo | 3.3% | 5.6% | 4.9–5.2% | 4.8–5.2% | 4.7–5.2% | 4.6–5.2% |
| PTB | 2.0% | 4.5% | 3.7–4.0% | 3.6–4.0% | 3.6–4.0% | 3.4–4.0% |
| PVDA | 1.8% | 3.8% | 3.3–4.3% | 3.1–4.4% | 3.0–4.5% | 2.8–4.5% |
| cdH | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.1–3.4% | 3.0–3.4% | 3.0–3.4% | 2.8–3.4% |
| DéFI | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.9–2.1% | 1.8–2.1% | 1.8–2.1% | 1.7–2.1% |
| Parti Populaire | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.7–1.9% | 1.6–1.9% | 1.6–1.9% | 1.5–1.9% |
| La Droite | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5–0.7% | 0.5–0.7% | 0.5–0.8% | 0.4–0.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 33 | 28 | 26–30 | 25–30 | 24–31 | 24–32 |
| CD&V | 18 | 13 | 12–14 | 11–15 | 11–16 | 10–17 |
| PS | 23 | 17 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 15–20 | 14–21 |
| Open Vld | 14 | 12 | 11–13 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 9–16 |
| MR | 20 | 16 | 14–17 | 13–18 | 13–18 | 13–18 |
| sp.a | 13 | 11 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–14 |
| Groen | 6 | 11 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 7–13 |
| Vlaams Belang | 3 | 9 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 7–13 |
| Ecolo | 6 | 10 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–14 |
| PTB | 2 | 7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| PVDA | 0 | 3 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–6 | 1–7 |
| cdH | 9 | 6 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 3–9 |
| DéFI | 2 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Parti Populaire | 1 | 2 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 0–3 |
| La Droite | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
N-VA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 24 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 25 | 7% | 97% | |
| 26 | 13% | 90% | |
| 27 | 15% | 77% | |
| 28 | 22% | 63% | Median |
| 29 | 23% | 41% | |
| 30 | 14% | 18% | |
| 31 | 3% | 4% | |
| 32 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 1.5% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 4% | 98% | |
| 12 | 6% | 94% | |
| 13 | 61% | 88% | Median |
| 14 | 20% | 27% | |
| 15 | 4% | 7% | |
| 16 | 2% | 3% | |
| 17 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 18 | 0.4% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
PS
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 15 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 16 | 17% | 96% | |
| 17 | 31% | 79% | Median |
| 18 | 27% | 48% | |
| 19 | 17% | 22% | |
| 20 | 4% | 5% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Open Vld
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 10 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 11 | 12% | 97% | |
| 12 | 70% | 85% | Median |
| 13 | 10% | 16% | |
| 14 | 4% | 6% | Last Result |
| 15 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
MR
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 6% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 14% | 94% | |
| 15 | 16% | 80% | |
| 16 | 32% | 64% | Median |
| 17 | 25% | 32% | |
| 18 | 6% | 7% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
sp.a
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 14% | 99.2% | |
| 10 | 11% | 86% | |
| 11 | 57% | 74% | Median |
| 12 | 10% | 18% | |
| 13 | 6% | 8% | Last Result |
| 14 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 9 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 10 | 34% | 96% | |
| 11 | 44% | 63% | Median |
| 12 | 17% | 19% | |
| 13 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 8 | 35% | 99.2% | |
| 9 | 17% | 64% | Median |
| 10 | 13% | 47% | |
| 11 | 12% | 34% | |
| 12 | 18% | 22% | |
| 13 | 3% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 14% | 99.0% | |
| 10 | 41% | 85% | Median |
| 11 | 20% | 44% | |
| 12 | 17% | 24% | |
| 13 | 6% | 7% | |
| 14 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
PTB
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 6 | 21% | 96% | |
| 7 | 28% | 75% | Median |
| 8 | 35% | 48% | |
| 9 | 12% | 12% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
PVDA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 10% | 98.7% | |
| 3 | 68% | 89% | Median |
| 4 | 10% | 21% | |
| 5 | 8% | 11% | |
| 6 | 3% | 4% | |
| 7 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
cdH
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 11% | 98.7% | |
| 5 | 22% | 87% | |
| 6 | 18% | 65% | Median |
| 7 | 24% | 48% | |
| 8 | 22% | 24% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 33% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 63% | 67% | Median |
| 4 | 3% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Populaire
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 1 | 5% | 98.6% | Last Result |
| 2 | 73% | 93% | Median |
| 3 | 20% | 20% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
La Droite
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La Droite page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD&V – PS – Open Vld – MR – sp.a – Groen – Ecolo – cdH | 109 | 97 | 100% | 94–100 | 93–101 | 93–101 | 91–103 |
| N-VA – PS – Open Vld – MR – sp.a | 103 | 84 | 100% | 81–87 | 80–88 | 80–88 | 78–90 |
| CD&V – PS – sp.a – Groen – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA – cdH | 77 | 80 | 97% | 77–83 | 76–83 | 75–84 | 74–86 |
| PS – Open Vld – MR – sp.a – Groen – Ecolo | 82 | 78 | 82% | 75–81 | 74–81 | 73–82 | 72–84 |
| CD&V – PS – Open Vld – MR – sp.a – cdH | 97 | 76 | 52% | 73–78 | 72–79 | 71–80 | 70–82 |
| N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH | 94 | 75 | 46% | 72–78 | 71–79 | 70–80 | 68–81 |
| CD&V – PS – sp.a – Groen – Ecolo – cdH | 75 | 69 | 0.3% | 66–72 | 65–73 | 65–74 | 63–75 |
| CD&V – Open Vld – MR – Groen – Ecolo – cdH | 73 | 69 | 0.1% | 66–71 | 65–72 | 64–73 | 63–74 |
| N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR | 85 | 69 | 0.1% | 66–72 | 65–73 | 64–73 | 63–75 |
| PS – sp.a – Groen – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA – cdH | 59 | 67 | 0% | 64–69 | 63–70 | 62–71 | 61–72 |
| CD&V – PS – Open Vld – MR – cdH | 84 | 65 | 0% | 62–67 | 61–68 | 61–69 | 59–70 |
| PS – sp.a – Groen – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA | 50 | 60 | 0% | 57–63 | 57–64 | 56–65 | 55–67 |
| PS – Open Vld – MR – sp.a | 70 | 56 | 0% | 54–59 | 53–60 | 52–60 | 51–62 |
| CD&V – PS – sp.a – cdH | 63 | 48 | 0% | 45–51 | 44–51 | 44–52 | 42–54 |
| CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH | 61 | 47 | 0% | 44–50 | 44–51 | 43–51 | 41–53 |
CD&V – PS – Open Vld – MR – sp.a – Groen – Ecolo – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 92 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 93 | 4% | 98% | |
| 94 | 7% | 94% | |
| 95 | 12% | 88% | |
| 96 | 16% | 76% | Median |
| 97 | 19% | 59% | |
| 98 | 17% | 41% | |
| 99 | 12% | 24% | |
| 100 | 7% | 12% | |
| 101 | 3% | 5% | |
| 102 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 103 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
N-VA – PS – Open Vld – MR – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 77 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 78 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 79 | 1.4% | 99.2% | |
| 80 | 3% | 98% | |
| 81 | 7% | 95% | |
| 82 | 11% | 88% | |
| 83 | 16% | 77% | |
| 84 | 18% | 61% | Median |
| 85 | 17% | 43% | |
| 86 | 12% | 26% | |
| 87 | 8% | 14% | |
| 88 | 4% | 6% | |
| 89 | 2% | 2% | |
| 90 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – PS – sp.a – Groen – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 75 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 76 | 5% | 97% | Majority |
| 77 | 8% | 92% | Last Result |
| 78 | 13% | 84% | Median |
| 79 | 17% | 71% | |
| 80 | 18% | 54% | |
| 81 | 15% | 37% | |
| 82 | 11% | 22% | |
| 83 | 6% | 11% | |
| 84 | 3% | 5% | |
| 85 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 86 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% |
PS – Open Vld – MR – sp.a – Groen – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 73 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 74 | 5% | 96% | |
| 75 | 10% | 91% | |
| 76 | 14% | 82% | Majority |
| 77 | 17% | 67% | Median |
| 78 | 17% | 50% | |
| 79 | 14% | 34% | |
| 80 | 10% | 20% | |
| 81 | 6% | 10% | |
| 82 | 3% | 5% | Last Result |
| 83 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – PS – Open Vld – MR – sp.a – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 71 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 72 | 5% | 96% | |
| 73 | 9% | 92% | |
| 74 | 14% | 83% | |
| 75 | 17% | 69% | Median |
| 76 | 17% | 52% | Majority |
| 77 | 15% | 35% | |
| 78 | 10% | 20% | |
| 79 | 6% | 10% | |
| 80 | 3% | 4% | |
| 81 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 69 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 70 | 2% | 98% | |
| 71 | 4% | 96% | |
| 72 | 7% | 92% | |
| 73 | 10% | 85% | |
| 74 | 13% | 75% | |
| 75 | 15% | 61% | Median |
| 76 | 15% | 46% | Majority |
| 77 | 13% | 31% | |
| 78 | 9% | 18% | |
| 79 | 5% | 9% | |
| 80 | 2% | 4% | |
| 81 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – PS – sp.a – Groen – Ecolo – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 65 | 3% | 98% | |
| 66 | 7% | 95% | |
| 67 | 11% | 88% | |
| 68 | 15% | 77% | Median |
| 69 | 17% | 62% | |
| 70 | 16% | 45% | |
| 71 | 13% | 28% | |
| 72 | 8% | 15% | |
| 73 | 4% | 7% | |
| 74 | 2% | 3% | |
| 75 | 0.7% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld – MR – Groen – Ecolo – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 64 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 65 | 4% | 97% | |
| 66 | 8% | 93% | |
| 67 | 13% | 86% | |
| 68 | 19% | 72% | Median |
| 69 | 20% | 53% | |
| 70 | 16% | 33% | |
| 71 | 9% | 17% | |
| 72 | 5% | 8% | |
| 73 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 74 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 64 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 65 | 4% | 97% | |
| 66 | 8% | 93% | |
| 67 | 12% | 85% | |
| 68 | 15% | 73% | |
| 69 | 16% | 58% | Median |
| 70 | 16% | 41% | |
| 71 | 13% | 26% | |
| 72 | 7% | 13% | |
| 73 | 4% | 6% | |
| 74 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PS – sp.a – Groen – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 63 | 5% | 97% | |
| 64 | 9% | 92% | |
| 65 | 15% | 83% | Median |
| 66 | 18% | 69% | |
| 67 | 18% | 50% | |
| 68 | 14% | 32% | |
| 69 | 9% | 18% | |
| 70 | 5% | 9% | |
| 71 | 2% | 3% | |
| 72 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – PS – Open Vld – MR – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 61 | 4% | 98% | |
| 62 | 8% | 94% | |
| 63 | 14% | 86% | |
| 64 | 18% | 73% | Median |
| 65 | 19% | 55% | |
| 66 | 16% | 36% | |
| 67 | 11% | 20% | |
| 68 | 5% | 9% | |
| 69 | 2% | 4% | |
| 70 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PS – sp.a – Groen – Ecolo – PTB – PVDA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 1.3% | 99.6% | |
| 56 | 3% | 98% | |
| 57 | 6% | 95% | |
| 58 | 11% | 89% | |
| 59 | 15% | 78% | Median |
| 60 | 17% | 62% | |
| 61 | 16% | 46% | |
| 62 | 12% | 30% | |
| 63 | 8% | 18% | |
| 64 | 5% | 9% | |
| 65 | 3% | 4% | |
| 66 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
PS – Open Vld – MR – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 52 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 53 | 5% | 97% | |
| 54 | 11% | 92% | |
| 55 | 18% | 81% | |
| 56 | 21% | 63% | Median |
| 57 | 18% | 42% | |
| 58 | 12% | 24% | |
| 59 | 7% | 12% | |
| 60 | 3% | 5% | |
| 61 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – PS – sp.a – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 44 | 4% | 98% | |
| 45 | 8% | 94% | |
| 46 | 13% | 86% | |
| 47 | 17% | 72% | Median |
| 48 | 18% | 55% | |
| 49 | 15% | 37% | |
| 50 | 11% | 22% | |
| 51 | 6% | 11% | |
| 52 | 3% | 5% | |
| 53 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 42 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 43 | 3% | 98% | |
| 44 | 6% | 95% | |
| 45 | 9% | 89% | |
| 46 | 14% | 80% | |
| 47 | 18% | 66% | Median |
| 48 | 18% | 47% | |
| 49 | 16% | 29% | |
| 50 | 8% | 13% | |
| 51 | 3% | 5% | |
| 52 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM
- Fieldwork period: 27 November–3 December 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1612
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.82%