Opinion Poll by TNS for De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT, 19 November–8 December 2018
Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 20.3% | 18.0% | 16.1–17.0% | 15.9–17.0% | 15.7–17.0% | 15.3–17.0% |
| CD&V | 11.6% | 11.8% | 10.2–10.9% | 10.0–11.0% | 9.9–11.0% | 9.5–11.0% |
| Open Vld | 9.8% | 10.9% | 9.4–10.1% | 9.2–10.1% | 9.1–10.1% | 8.7–10.1% |
| Groen | 5.3% | 9.9% | 9.0–10.5% | 8.8–10.7% | 8.6–10.8% | 8.2–10.8% |
| PS | 11.7% | 9.0% | 8.0–8.4% | 7.9–8.4% | 7.8–8.4% | 7.6–8.4% |
| Ecolo | 3.3% | 7.7% | 6.8–7.2% | 6.7–7.2% | 6.7–7.2% | 6.5–7.2% |
| MR | 9.6% | 7.4% | 6.5–6.8% | 6.4–6.8% | 6.3–6.9% | 6.1–6.9% |
| sp.a | 8.8% | 5.8% | 4.7–5.3% | 4.6–5.3% | 4.5–5.3% | 4.3–5.3% |
| PTB | 2.0% | 5.1% | 4.4–4.7% | 4.3–4.7% | 4.2–4.7% | 4.1–4.7% |
| Vlaams Belang | 3.7% | 4.7% | 3.7–4.1% | 3.6–4.2% | 3.5–4.2% | 3.3–4.2% |
| cdH | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.0–3.2% | 2.9–3.2% | 2.8–3.2% | 2.7–3.2% |
| DéFI | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.4–1.5% | 1.4–1.6% | 1.3–1.6% | 1.2–1.6% |
| Parti Populaire | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.2–1.4% | 1.2–1.4% | 1.2–1.4% | 1.1–1.4% |
| PVDA | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.2–1.9% | 1.1–1.9% | 1.1–1.9% | 0.9–2.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 33 | 28 | 26–30 | 25–30 | 25–31 | 24–32 |
| CD&V | 18 | 18 | 15–18 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 14–21 |
| Open Vld | 14 | 17 | 14–18 | 13–18 | 13–18 | 12–19 |
| Groen | 6 | 13 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 12–17 | 12–18 |
| PS | 23 | 17 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 15–19 | 15–20 |
| Ecolo | 6 | 15 | 14–16 | 14–16 | 13–17 | 13–17 |
| MR | 20 | 13 | 13–15 | 13–15 | 12–16 | 12–16 |
| sp.a | 13 | 8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| PTB | 2 | 9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–10 |
| Vlaams Belang | 3 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 4–8 | 2–8 |
| cdH | 9 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 3–7 |
| DéFI | 2 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Parti Populaire | 1 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| PVDA | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
N-VA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 4% | 98% | |
| 26 | 10% | 93% | |
| 27 | 6% | 84% | |
| 28 | 43% | 77% | Median |
| 29 | 20% | 35% | |
| 30 | 11% | 15% | |
| 31 | 2% | 4% | |
| 32 | 2% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 14 | 6% | 99.6% | |
| 15 | 6% | 94% | |
| 16 | 8% | 88% | |
| 17 | 27% | 80% | |
| 18 | 47% | 53% | Last Result, Median |
| 19 | 3% | 5% | |
| 20 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vld
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 5% | 98.9% | |
| 14 | 15% | 94% | Last Result |
| 15 | 9% | 79% | |
| 16 | 13% | 70% | |
| 17 | 37% | 57% | Median |
| 18 | 19% | 20% | |
| 19 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 48% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 12% | 52% | Median |
| 14 | 12% | 40% | |
| 15 | 9% | 28% | |
| 16 | 16% | 19% | |
| 17 | 2% | 3% | |
| 18 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
PS
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 15 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 16 | 17% | 96% | |
| 17 | 35% | 79% | Median |
| 18 | 20% | 44% | |
| 19 | 23% | 24% | |
| 20 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 25% | 95% | |
| 15 | 35% | 71% | Median |
| 16 | 32% | 35% | |
| 17 | 3% | 3% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
MR
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 59% | 97% | Median |
| 14 | 17% | 38% | |
| 15 | 18% | 21% | |
| 16 | 3% | 3% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
sp.a
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 10% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 24% | 90% | |
| 7 | 16% | 66% | |
| 8 | 39% | 50% | Median |
| 9 | 11% | 11% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PTB
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 11% | 98.9% | |
| 8 | 16% | 88% | |
| 9 | 57% | 72% | Median |
| 10 | 15% | 15% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 98.9% | Last Result |
| 4 | 2% | 98% | |
| 5 | 43% | 95% | |
| 6 | 23% | 52% | Median |
| 7 | 24% | 29% | |
| 8 | 5% | 5% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
cdH
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 4 | 26% | 99.1% | |
| 5 | 49% | 73% | Median |
| 6 | 18% | 24% | |
| 7 | 6% | 6% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 85% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 15% | 15% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Populaire
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 40% | 100% | |
| 1 | 17% | 60% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 43% | 43% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
PVDA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 90% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 10% | 10% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD&V – Open Vld – Groen – PS – Ecolo – MR – sp.a – cdH | 109 | 105 | 100% | 102–108 | 102–109 | 101–109 | 100–111 |
| CD&V – Groen – PS – Ecolo – sp.a – PTB – cdH – PVDA | 77 | 84 | 100% | 81–87 | 81–88 | 80–89 | 79–91 |
| Open Vld – Groen – PS – Ecolo – MR – sp.a | 82 | 83 | 100% | 80–86 | 79–87 | 78–88 | 77–90 |
| N-VA – Open Vld – PS – MR – sp.a | 103 | 83 | 99.8% | 80–85 | 79–86 | 78–86 | 76–88 |
| CD&V – Open Vld – Groen – Ecolo – MR – cdH | 73 | 80 | 99.0% | 78–83 | 77–84 | 76–85 | 75–86 |
| N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH | 94 | 80 | 97% | 77–83 | 76–84 | 75–84 | 74–86 |
| CD&V – Open Vld – PS – MR – sp.a – cdH | 97 | 77 | 68% | 74–80 | 73–80 | 72–81 | 71–82 |
| CD&V – Groen – PS – Ecolo – sp.a – cdH | 75 | 75 | 45% | 72–78 | 72–79 | 71–80 | 70–82 |
| N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR | 85 | 75 | 45% | 72–78 | 71–79 | 71–79 | 69–81 |
| CD&V – Open Vld – PS – MR – cdH | 84 | 70 | 0.2% | 67–72 | 66–73 | 65–74 | 64–75 |
| Groen – PS – Ecolo – sp.a – PTB – cdH – PVDA | 59 | 67 | 0% | 64–70 | 63–71 | 63–72 | 62–73 |
| Groen – PS – Ecolo – sp.a – PTB – PVDA | 50 | 62 | 0% | 59–65 | 58–66 | 58–67 | 57–68 |
| Open Vld – PS – MR – sp.a | 70 | 55 | 0% | 51–57 | 51–58 | 50–58 | 49–60 |
| CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH | 61 | 52 | 0% | 49–55 | 49–55 | 48–56 | 46–57 |
| CD&V – PS – sp.a – cdH | 63 | 47 | 0% | 44–50 | 43–50 | 43–51 | 41–52 |
CD&V – Open Vld – Groen – PS – Ecolo – MR – sp.a – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 101 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 102 | 6% | 96% | |
| 103 | 11% | 90% | |
| 104 | 17% | 79% | |
| 105 | 21% | 62% | |
| 106 | 18% | 41% | Median |
| 107 | 11% | 23% | |
| 108 | 6% | 12% | |
| 109 | 4% | 6% | Last Result |
| 110 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Groen – PS – Ecolo – sp.a – PTB – cdH – PVDA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 78 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 79 | 1.2% | 99.5% | |
| 80 | 3% | 98% | |
| 81 | 7% | 95% | |
| 82 | 12% | 88% | |
| 83 | 15% | 76% | |
| 84 | 19% | 60% | |
| 85 | 15% | 42% | Median |
| 86 | 12% | 27% | |
| 87 | 7% | 15% | |
| 88 | 4% | 8% | |
| 89 | 2% | 4% | |
| 90 | 1.0% | 1.5% | |
| 91 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vld – Groen – PS – Ecolo – MR – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76 | 0.1% | 100% | Majority |
| 77 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 78 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 79 | 4% | 97% | |
| 80 | 7% | 93% | |
| 81 | 13% | 86% | |
| 82 | 19% | 73% | Last Result |
| 83 | 18% | 53% | Median |
| 84 | 14% | 35% | |
| 85 | 9% | 22% | |
| 86 | 6% | 13% | |
| 87 | 3% | 7% | |
| 88 | 2% | 3% | |
| 89 | 1.0% | 1.5% | |
| 90 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – Open Vld – PS – MR – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.4% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 77 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 78 | 3% | 98% | |
| 79 | 5% | 96% | |
| 80 | 9% | 90% | |
| 81 | 13% | 81% | |
| 82 | 16% | 68% | |
| 83 | 18% | 52% | Median |
| 84 | 16% | 34% | |
| 85 | 12% | 18% | |
| 86 | 4% | 6% | |
| 87 | 2% | 2% | |
| 88 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – Open Vld – Groen – Ecolo – MR – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 74 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 76 | 2% | 99.0% | Majority |
| 77 | 4% | 97% | |
| 78 | 10% | 93% | |
| 79 | 15% | 83% | |
| 80 | 18% | 68% | |
| 81 | 18% | 50% | Median |
| 82 | 14% | 31% | |
| 83 | 9% | 17% | |
| 84 | 5% | 8% | |
| 85 | 2% | 3% | |
| 86 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 75 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 76 | 4% | 97% | Majority |
| 77 | 6% | 93% | |
| 78 | 10% | 87% | |
| 79 | 14% | 77% | |
| 80 | 18% | 63% | |
| 81 | 18% | 45% | Median |
| 82 | 13% | 27% | |
| 83 | 8% | 14% | |
| 84 | 4% | 6% | |
| 85 | 2% | 2% | |
| 86 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – Open Vld – PS – MR – sp.a – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 72 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 73 | 5% | 97% | |
| 74 | 10% | 92% | |
| 75 | 14% | 82% | |
| 76 | 16% | 68% | Majority |
| 77 | 16% | 52% | |
| 78 | 15% | 36% | Median |
| 79 | 11% | 22% | |
| 80 | 6% | 11% | |
| 81 | 3% | 4% | |
| 82 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – Groen – PS – Ecolo – sp.a – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 71 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 72 | 6% | 96% | |
| 73 | 11% | 89% | |
| 74 | 16% | 78% | |
| 75 | 18% | 63% | Last Result |
| 76 | 16% | 45% | Median, Majority |
| 77 | 12% | 29% | |
| 78 | 8% | 17% | |
| 79 | 5% | 9% | |
| 80 | 2% | 4% | |
| 81 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 70 | 1.5% | 99.1% | |
| 71 | 4% | 98% | |
| 72 | 6% | 94% | |
| 73 | 10% | 88% | |
| 74 | 13% | 78% | |
| 75 | 20% | 65% | |
| 76 | 20% | 45% | Median, Majority |
| 77 | 11% | 24% | |
| 78 | 8% | 13% | |
| 79 | 3% | 5% | |
| 80 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – Open Vld – PS – MR – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 65 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 66 | 5% | 96% | |
| 67 | 9% | 91% | |
| 68 | 14% | 82% | |
| 69 | 17% | 69% | |
| 70 | 19% | 52% | Median |
| 71 | 16% | 33% | |
| 72 | 10% | 17% | |
| 73 | 5% | 7% | |
| 74 | 2% | 3% | |
| 75 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Groen – PS – Ecolo – sp.a – PTB – cdH – PVDA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 62 | 1.2% | 99.6% | |
| 63 | 4% | 98% | |
| 64 | 8% | 95% | |
| 65 | 14% | 87% | |
| 66 | 18% | 73% | |
| 67 | 17% | 55% | Median |
| 68 | 15% | 38% | |
| 69 | 9% | 23% | |
| 70 | 6% | 14% | |
| 71 | 4% | 7% | |
| 72 | 2% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Groen – PS – Ecolo – sp.a – PTB – PVDA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 58 | 4% | 98% | |
| 59 | 8% | 94% | |
| 60 | 14% | 86% | |
| 61 | 19% | 73% | |
| 62 | 17% | 54% | Median |
| 63 | 13% | 37% | |
| 64 | 10% | 23% | |
| 65 | 7% | 14% | |
| 66 | 4% | 7% | |
| 67 | 2% | 3% | |
| 68 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vld – PS – MR – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 1.2% | 99.6% | |
| 50 | 3% | 98% | |
| 51 | 6% | 95% | |
| 52 | 10% | 89% | |
| 53 | 13% | 79% | |
| 54 | 16% | 66% | |
| 55 | 17% | 50% | Median |
| 56 | 15% | 33% | |
| 57 | 12% | 18% | |
| 58 | 5% | 7% | |
| 59 | 2% | 2% | |
| 60 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 47 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 48 | 3% | 98% | |
| 49 | 7% | 95% | |
| 50 | 11% | 88% | |
| 51 | 15% | 77% | |
| 52 | 20% | 62% | |
| 53 | 19% | 43% | Median |
| 54 | 13% | 24% | |
| 55 | 7% | 11% | |
| 56 | 3% | 4% | |
| 57 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – PS – sp.a – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 43 | 4% | 98% | |
| 44 | 8% | 94% | |
| 45 | 12% | 86% | |
| 46 | 16% | 74% | |
| 47 | 18% | 57% | |
| 48 | 16% | 39% | Median |
| 49 | 13% | 23% | |
| 50 | 7% | 10% | |
| 51 | 2% | 4% | |
| 52 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: TNS
- Commissioner(s): De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT
- Fieldwork period: 19 November–8 December 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1678
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.78%