Opinion Poll by TNS for De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT, 25 March–14 April 2019
Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 20.3% | 17.6% | 15.7–16.6% | 15.5–16.6% | 15.3–16.6% | 14.9–16.6% |
| CD&V | 11.6% | 9.2% | 7.8–8.5% | 7.6–8.5% | 7.5–8.5% | 7.2–8.5% |
| Groen | 5.3% | 9.0% | 8.2–9.7% | 7.9–9.8% | 7.7–9.9% | 7.4–10.0% |
| PS | 11.7% | 9.0% | 8.0–8.4% | 7.9–8.4% | 7.8–8.4% | 7.6–8.4% |
| Open Vld | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.5–8.2% | 7.3–8.2% | 7.2–8.2% | 6.9–8.2% |
| Ecolo | 3.3% | 8.6% | 7.6–8.0% | 7.5–8.0% | 7.4–8.0% | 7.2–8.0% |
| sp.a | 8.8% | 7.9% | 6.6–7.2% | 6.5–7.3% | 6.3–7.3% | 6.0–7.3% |
| MR | 9.6% | 6.8% | 5.9–6.2% | 5.8–6.2% | 5.7–6.2% | 5.6–6.3% |
| Vlaams Belang | 3.7% | 5.9% | 4.7–5.3% | 4.6–5.3% | 4.5–5.3% | 4.2–5.3% |
| PTB | 2.0% | 5.4% | 4.6–4.9% | 4.6–5.0% | 4.5–5.0% | 4.3–5.0% |
| PVDA | 1.8% | 3.6% | 3.1–4.1% | 2.9–4.2% | 2.8–4.2% | 2.6–4.3% |
| cdH | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.7–3.0% | 2.7–3.0% | 2.6–3.0% | 2.5–3.0% |
| DéFI | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.4–1.6% | 1.4–1.6% | 1.3–1.6% | 1.2–1.6% |
| Parti Populaire | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.7–0.9% | 0.7–0.9% | 0.7–0.9% | 0.6–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 33 | 28 | 25–29 | 25–29 | 24–30 | 23–31 |
| CD&V | 18 | 13 | 12–14 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 10–17 |
| Groen | 6 | 12 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 11–16 | 10–17 |
| PS | 23 | 18 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 15–20 |
| Open Vld | 14 | 12 | 11–14 | 11–15 | 11–16 | 10–17 |
| Ecolo | 6 | 17 | 16–18 | 16–18 | 15–18 | 15–19 |
| sp.a | 13 | 11 | 10–13 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 9–15 |
| MR | 20 | 13 | 12–14 | 12–15 | 11–15 | 11–15 |
| Vlaams Belang | 3 | 7 | 7–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–10 |
| PTB | 2 | 9 | 9–10 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 7–11 |
| PVDA | 0 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 1–5 | 1–6 |
| cdH | 9 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–7 |
| DéFI | 2 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Parti Populaire | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–2 |
N-VA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 24 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 25 | 12% | 96% | |
| 26 | 16% | 84% | |
| 27 | 17% | 68% | |
| 28 | 35% | 51% | Median |
| 29 | 12% | 16% | |
| 30 | 3% | 4% | |
| 31 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 11 | 5% | 99.1% | |
| 12 | 7% | 94% | |
| 13 | 38% | 87% | Median |
| 14 | 41% | 49% | |
| 15 | 6% | 8% | |
| 16 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 9% | 98.8% | |
| 12 | 63% | 90% | Median |
| 13 | 10% | 27% | |
| 14 | 6% | 17% | |
| 15 | 5% | 10% | |
| 16 | 3% | 5% | |
| 17 | 2% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
PS
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 16 | 10% | 99.4% | |
| 17 | 25% | 89% | |
| 18 | 26% | 64% | Median |
| 19 | 26% | 38% | |
| 20 | 12% | 12% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Open Vld
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 9% | 99.4% | |
| 12 | 53% | 90% | Median |
| 13 | 16% | 37% | |
| 14 | 12% | 20% | Last Result |
| 15 | 5% | 8% | |
| 16 | 2% | 4% | |
| 17 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 15 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 16 | 24% | 97% | |
| 17 | 46% | 72% | Median |
| 18 | 25% | 26% | |
| 19 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 20% | 92% | |
| 11 | 44% | 71% | Median |
| 12 | 12% | 28% | |
| 13 | 7% | 15% | Last Result |
| 14 | 7% | 8% | |
| 15 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
MR
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 26% | 97% | |
| 13 | 56% | 71% | Median |
| 14 | 9% | 15% | |
| 15 | 6% | 6% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 6 | 6% | 99.5% | |
| 7 | 51% | 94% | Median |
| 8 | 40% | 43% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
PTB
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 8 | 5% | 99.1% | |
| 9 | 56% | 95% | Median |
| 10 | 35% | 39% | |
| 11 | 4% | 4% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
PVDA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 5% | 100% | |
| 2 | 23% | 95% | |
| 3 | 57% | 72% | Median |
| 4 | 11% | 16% | |
| 5 | 4% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
cdH
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 53% | 96% | Median |
| 5 | 37% | 43% | |
| 6 | 5% | 5% | |
| 7 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 82% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 17% | 18% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Populaire
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.6% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0.9% | 1.4% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD&V – Groen – PS – Open Vld – Ecolo – sp.a – MR – cdH | 109 | 102 | 100% | 100–104 | 99–105 | 98–105 | 97–107 |
| CD&V – Groen – PS – Ecolo – sp.a – PTB – PVDA – cdH | 77 | 89 | 100% | 86–91 | 86–92 | 85–93 | 84–94 |
| Groen – PS – Open Vld – Ecolo – sp.a – MR | 82 | 84 | 100% | 82–87 | 81–87 | 80–88 | 79–89 |
| N-VA – PS – Open Vld – sp.a – MR | 103 | 82 | 99.8% | 79–84 | 78–85 | 78–86 | 76–87 |
| CD&V – Groen – PS – Ecolo – sp.a – cdH | 75 | 76 | 70% | 74–79 | 73–80 | 73–80 | 71–82 |
| Groen – PS – Ecolo – sp.a – PTB – PVDA – cdH | 59 | 75 | 42% | 73–78 | 72–79 | 72–79 | 71–81 |
| CD&V – Groen – Open Vld – Ecolo – MR – cdH | 73 | 73 | 10% | 70–75 | 70–76 | 69–77 | 68–78 |
| CD&V – PS – Open Vld – sp.a – MR – cdH | 97 | 73 | 6% | 70–75 | 69–76 | 69–76 | 67–77 |
| Groen – PS – Ecolo – sp.a – PTB – PVDA | 50 | 71 | 2% | 69–74 | 68–74 | 67–75 | 66–76 |
| N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH | 94 | 71 | 0.3% | 68–73 | 67–74 | 66–74 | 65–75 |
| N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR | 85 | 66 | 0% | 64–68 | 63–69 | 62–70 | 61–71 |
| CD&V – PS – Open Vld – MR – cdH | 84 | 61 | 0% | 59–64 | 59–64 | 58–65 | 57–66 |
| PS – Open Vld – sp.a – MR | 70 | 55 | 0% | 52–57 | 51–58 | 51–59 | 50–60 |
| CD&V – PS – sp.a – cdH | 63 | 47 | 0% | 45–49 | 44–50 | 43–51 | 42–52 |
| CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH | 61 | 43 | 0% | 41–46 | 41–46 | 40–47 | 39–48 |
CD&V – Groen – PS – Open Vld – Ecolo – sp.a – MR – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 99 | 5% | 97% | |
| 100 | 12% | 92% | Median |
| 101 | 20% | 80% | |
| 102 | 23% | 61% | |
| 103 | 19% | 38% | |
| 104 | 12% | 19% | |
| 105 | 5% | 7% | |
| 106 | 2% | 2% | |
| 107 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – Groen – PS – Ecolo – sp.a – PTB – PVDA – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 84 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 85 | 3% | 98% | |
| 86 | 7% | 95% | |
| 87 | 13% | 88% | Median |
| 88 | 19% | 75% | |
| 89 | 24% | 56% | |
| 90 | 14% | 32% | |
| 91 | 9% | 18% | |
| 92 | 5% | 8% | |
| 93 | 2% | 3% | |
| 94 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% |
Groen – PS – Open Vld – Ecolo – sp.a – MR
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 81 | 6% | 97% | |
| 82 | 12% | 92% | Last Result |
| 83 | 19% | 80% | Median |
| 84 | 21% | 61% | |
| 85 | 17% | 41% | |
| 86 | 12% | 23% | |
| 87 | 7% | 11% | |
| 88 | 3% | 4% | |
| 89 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – PS – Open Vld – sp.a – MR
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 77 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 78 | 4% | 98% | |
| 79 | 7% | 94% | |
| 80 | 12% | 86% | |
| 81 | 16% | 75% | |
| 82 | 19% | 59% | Median |
| 83 | 18% | 40% | |
| 84 | 13% | 22% | |
| 85 | 6% | 9% | |
| 86 | 2% | 3% | |
| 87 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – Groen – PS – Ecolo – sp.a – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 73 | 4% | 98% | |
| 74 | 9% | 94% | |
| 75 | 15% | 85% | Last Result, Median |
| 76 | 21% | 70% | Majority |
| 77 | 20% | 49% | |
| 78 | 13% | 29% | |
| 79 | 8% | 15% | |
| 80 | 5% | 7% | |
| 81 | 2% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Groen – PS – Ecolo – sp.a – PTB – PVDA – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 1.3% | 99.6% | |
| 72 | 4% | 98% | |
| 73 | 9% | 94% | |
| 74 | 17% | 85% | Median |
| 75 | 26% | 67% | |
| 76 | 17% | 42% | Majority |
| 77 | 11% | 24% | |
| 78 | 7% | 14% | |
| 79 | 4% | 6% | |
| 80 | 2% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Groen – Open Vld – Ecolo – MR – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 69 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 70 | 8% | 95% | |
| 71 | 14% | 87% | Median |
| 72 | 19% | 73% | |
| 73 | 19% | 54% | Last Result |
| 74 | 15% | 35% | |
| 75 | 10% | 20% | |
| 76 | 6% | 10% | Majority |
| 77 | 3% | 4% | |
| 78 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – PS – Open Vld – sp.a – MR – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 1.4% | 99.5% | |
| 69 | 4% | 98% | |
| 70 | 9% | 94% | |
| 71 | 15% | 85% | Median |
| 72 | 20% | 70% | |
| 73 | 20% | 51% | |
| 74 | 15% | 30% | |
| 75 | 9% | 15% | |
| 76 | 4% | 6% | Majority |
| 77 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 78 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Groen – PS – Ecolo – sp.a – PTB – PVDA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 67 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 68 | 7% | 97% | |
| 69 | 14% | 90% | |
| 70 | 21% | 76% | Median |
| 71 | 21% | 55% | |
| 72 | 14% | 34% | |
| 73 | 9% | 20% | |
| 74 | 6% | 11% | |
| 75 | 3% | 5% | |
| 76 | 1.1% | 2% | Majority |
| 77 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 67 | 4% | 97% | |
| 68 | 8% | 93% | |
| 69 | 13% | 85% | |
| 70 | 19% | 72% | Median |
| 71 | 21% | 53% | |
| 72 | 17% | 32% | |
| 73 | 10% | 15% | |
| 74 | 4% | 5% | |
| 75 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld – MR
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 62 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 63 | 6% | 96% | |
| 64 | 10% | 91% | |
| 65 | 15% | 80% | |
| 66 | 22% | 65% | Median |
| 67 | 21% | 43% | |
| 68 | 13% | 22% | |
| 69 | 6% | 9% | |
| 70 | 2% | 3% | |
| 71 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – PS – Open Vld – MR – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 58 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 59 | 9% | 95% | |
| 60 | 18% | 86% | Median |
| 61 | 24% | 69% | |
| 62 | 21% | 45% | |
| 63 | 13% | 24% | |
| 64 | 6% | 11% | |
| 65 | 3% | 5% | |
| 66 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PS – Open Vld – sp.a – MR
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 50 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 51 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 52 | 9% | 95% | |
| 53 | 15% | 86% | |
| 54 | 19% | 71% | Median |
| 55 | 19% | 52% | |
| 56 | 15% | 33% | |
| 57 | 10% | 18% | |
| 58 | 5% | 8% | |
| 59 | 2% | 3% | |
| 60 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – PS – sp.a – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 43 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 44 | 6% | 97% | |
| 45 | 11% | 91% | |
| 46 | 18% | 80% | Median |
| 47 | 21% | 62% | |
| 48 | 19% | 41% | |
| 49 | 12% | 21% | |
| 50 | 6% | 10% | |
| 51 | 3% | 3% | |
| 52 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – Open Vld – MR – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 40 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 41 | 9% | 96% | |
| 42 | 18% | 87% | Median |
| 43 | 25% | 68% | |
| 44 | 21% | 44% | |
| 45 | 12% | 23% | |
| 46 | 6% | 11% | |
| 47 | 3% | 4% | |
| 48 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: TNS
- Commissioner(s): De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT
- Fieldwork period: 25 March–14 April 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1626
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.66%