Opinion Poll by Dedicated for Soirmag, 28 August–1 September 2020

Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 12.0% 17.1% 14.7–15.8% 14.4–15.8% 14.2–15.9% 13.7–15.9%
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 16.0% 15.0% 12.7–13.7% 12.4–13.8% 12.2–13.8% 11.7–13.8%
Parti Socialiste 9.5% 9.5% 7.5–8.3% 7.3–8.3% 7.2–8.3% 6.8–8.3%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 8.5% 8.9% 7.8–9.7% 7.5–9.9% 7.3–10.0% 6.8–10.1%
Mouvement Réformateur 7.6% 8.5% 6.7–7.4% 6.5–7.4% 6.4–7.4% 6.0–7.5%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 8.9% 8.4% 6.7–7.5% 6.5–7.5% 6.3–7.5% 6.0–7.5%
Vooruit 6.7% 8.0% 7.0–8.9% 6.8–9.0% 6.5–9.1% 6.1–9.2%
Ecolo 6.1% 6.4% 4.8–5.4% 4.6–5.4% 4.5–5.4% 4.2–5.4%
Parti du Travail de Belgique 4.8% 5.8% 4.4–5.0% 4.2–5.0% 4.1–5.0% 3.8–5.0%
Groen 6.1% 4.5% 3.7–5.1% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.3% 3.0–5.4%
Centre démocrate humaniste N/A 2.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A
DéFI 2.2% 1.7% 1.0–1.3% 0.9–1.3% 0.9–1.3% 0.7–1.3%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3.3% 1.1% 0.8–1.5% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.7%
Parti Populaire 1.1% 1.1% 0.7–1.2% 0.6–1.2% 0.6–1.2% 0.4–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 18 26 24–29 23–29 22–30 21–32
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 25 23 21–26 20–27 19–27 18–28
Parti Socialiste 20 19 16–21 16–21 15–22 13–23
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 12 12 10–15 10–15 10–16 9–17
Mouvement Réformateur 14 17 14–19 13–20 13–20 12–21
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 12 11 10–14 10–14 9–15 8–16
Vooruit 9 11 9–13 9–13 9–14 8–15
Ecolo 13 12 10–14 10–15 9–15 8–17
Parti du Travail de Belgique 9 10 9–12 8–13 7–13 6–15
Groen 8 5 3–7 3–7 3–8 2–9
Centre démocrate humaniste N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
DéFI 2 1 0–2 0–3 0–3 0–4
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3 0 0 0 0 0–1
Parti Populaire 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0% 100%  
20 0.2% 100%  
21 2% 99.8%  
22 3% 98%  
23 4% 95%  
24 8% 91%  
25 23% 83%  
26 25% 60% Median
27 13% 35%  
28 11% 22%  
29 7% 11%  
30 3% 4%  
31 0.8% 1.4%  
32 0.4% 0.6%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.4% 99.9%  
18 0.7% 99.5%  
19 1.3% 98.8%  
20 5% 97%  
21 17% 92%  
22 17% 76%  
23 22% 59% Median
24 17% 36%  
25 8% 19% Last Result
26 5% 11%  
27 5% 6%  
28 1.2% 1.4%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 0.4% 99.8%  
14 1.1% 99.4%  
15 3% 98%  
16 7% 96%  
17 15% 89%  
18 19% 73%  
19 18% 54% Median
20 22% 36% Last Result
21 9% 14%  
22 4% 5%  
23 1.0% 1.3%  
24 0.3% 0.4%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 1.3% 100%  
10 15% 98.7%  
11 19% 84%  
12 21% 65% Last Result, Median
13 12% 45%  
14 21% 32%  
15 7% 11%  
16 4% 5%  
17 0.4% 0.5%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 2% 99.7%  
13 5% 98%  
14 9% 93% Last Result
15 11% 85%  
16 16% 74%  
17 24% 58% Median
18 19% 34%  
19 9% 15%  
20 4% 6%  
21 1.2% 2%  
22 0.3% 0.4%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 0.6% 99.8%  
9 3% 99.2%  
10 26% 97%  
11 24% 71% Median
12 18% 46% Last Result
13 15% 28%  
14 9% 13%  
15 3% 4%  
16 0.9% 1.1%  
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.2% 99.9%  
8 2% 99.7%  
9 13% 98% Last Result
10 12% 85%  
11 41% 73% Median
12 10% 32%  
13 17% 22%  
14 3% 5%  
15 1.3% 1.4%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.2% 99.9%  
8 0.7% 99.8%  
9 4% 99.1%  
10 13% 95%  
11 21% 82%  
12 24% 60% Median
13 21% 36% Last Result
14 10% 15%  
15 3% 5%  
16 1.3% 2%  
17 0.8% 1.1%  
18 0.3% 0.3%  
19 0% 0%  

Parti du Travail de Belgique

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 0.8% 99.9%  
7 2% 99.1%  
8 6% 97%  
9 21% 91% Last Result
10 31% 70% Median
11 23% 39%  
12 11% 16%  
13 4% 5%  
14 1.1% 2%  
15 0.4% 0.6%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0.1% 99.9%  
2 0.5% 99.9%  
3 15% 99.4%  
4 19% 84%  
5 45% 65% Median
6 10% 20%  
7 6% 10%  
8 2% 4% Last Result
9 2% 2%  
10 0% 0%  

Centre démocrate humaniste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centre démocrate humaniste page.

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DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 46% 100%  
1 36% 54% Median
2 11% 17% Last Result
3 5% 6%  
4 0.5% 0.7%  
5 0.1% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Median
1 0.6% 0.6%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Populaire

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 78% 100% Last Result, Median
1 5% 22%  
2 17% 17%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 63 64 0% 60–67 59–68 58–69 56–71
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Parti Socialiste – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit 80 46 0% 43–48 42–49 41–50 40–51
Parti Socialiste – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Ecolo – Groen 88 40 0% 37–42 36–43 35–44 34–46
Parti Socialiste – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Ecolo – Groen 76 28 0% 26–31 25–32 24–32 23–34
Parti Socialiste – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit 55 23 0% 21–26 21–27 20–27 19–29
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Ecolo – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Groen – Partij van de Arbeid van België 62 16 0% 14–18 13–19 13–20 12–21

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 0.6% 99.6%  
57 1.2% 99.0%  
58 2% 98%  
59 4% 95%  
60 6% 91%  
61 9% 85%  
62 11% 76%  
63 13% 65% Last Result, Median
64 13% 52%  
65 12% 39%  
66 10% 27%  
67 7% 17%  
68 5% 9%  
69 3% 5%  
70 1.3% 2%  
71 0.6% 1.0%  
72 0.3% 0.4%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Parti Socialiste – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 1.3% 99.7%  
41 2% 98%  
42 5% 96%  
43 7% 91%  
44 13% 84%  
45 19% 71%  
46 19% 52%  
47 18% 33%  
48 7% 15%  
49 4% 8%  
50 2% 3%  
51 1.2% 2%  
52 0.3% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Ecolo – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.8% 99.8%  
35 2% 99.0%  
36 6% 97%  
37 9% 91%  
38 15% 82%  
39 14% 67%  
40 19% 53%  
41 13% 35%  
42 12% 22%  
43 6% 10%  
44 3% 4%  
45 0.8% 1.4%  
46 0.4% 0.5%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0% Median
88 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Ecolo – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 0.6% 99.8%  
24 2% 99.2%  
25 7% 97%  
26 12% 91%  
27 16% 78%  
28 14% 62%  
29 13% 48%  
30 16% 35%  
31 11% 20%  
32 6% 9%  
33 1.4% 2%  
34 0.6% 0.9%  
35 0.2% 0.3%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Median, Majority

Parti Socialiste – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 1.2% 99.7%  
20 3% 98.5%  
21 13% 95%  
22 17% 82%  
23 17% 65%  
24 12% 48%  
25 17% 36%  
26 10% 20%  
27 8% 10%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.6% 0.8%  
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Ecolo – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Groen – Partij van de Arbeid van België

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.4% 99.9%  
12 1.5% 99.5%  
13 4% 98%  
14 16% 94%  
15 20% 79%  
16 21% 58%  
17 15% 37%  
18 14% 22%  
19 5% 8%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.6% 1.0%  
22 0.4% 0.4%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Median
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations