Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 25 May–1 June 2021

Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 12.0% 16.4% 14.6–15.4% 14.3–15.4% 14.2–15.5% 13.8–15.5%
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 16.0% 13.8% 12.0–12.8% 11.8–12.9% 11.7–12.9% 11.3–12.9%
Parti Socialiste 9.5% 8.7% 7.7–8.1% 7.6–8.1% 7.5–8.1% 7.3–8.1%
Vooruit 6.7% 7.8% 7.0–8.4% 6.8–8.5% 6.6–8.6% 6.2–8.6%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 8.5% 7.2% 5.9–6.5% 5.8–6.6% 5.7–6.6% 5.4–6.6%
Mouvement Réformateur 7.6% 7.1% 6.2–6.5% 6.1–6.5% 6.0–6.5% 5.8–6.6%
Parti du Travail de Belgique 4.8% 7.0% 6.0–6.4% 6.0–6.4% 5.9–6.4% 5.7–6.4%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 8.9% 6.2% 5.0–5.6% 4.9–5.6% 4.8–5.6% 4.5–5.6%
Ecolo 6.1% 6.2% 5.3–5.6% 5.2–5.7% 5.2–5.7% 5.0–5.7%
Groen 6.1% 5.1% 4.5–5.6% 4.3–5.7% 4.1–5.8% 3.9–5.8%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3.3% 4.8% 4.2–5.3% 4.0–5.4% 3.9–5.5% 3.6–5.5%
Les Engagés 3.7% 3.7% 3.0–3.3% 3.0–3.3% 2.9–3.3% 2.8–3.3%
DéFI 2.2% 2.4% 1.9–2.1% 1.8–2.1% 1.8–2.1% 1.7–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 18 25 24–26 23–27 22–29 21–30
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 25 20 19–22 19–23 18–24 17–25
Parti Socialiste 20 18 16–19 16–19 16–20 15–20
Vooruit 9 11 10–12 9–12 9–13 8–14
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 12 10 9–10 8–11 8–12 7–12
Mouvement Réformateur 14 14 13–15 12–16 12–16 11–17
Parti du Travail de Belgique 9 12 11–14 11–14 10–15 10–16
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 12 9 6–10 6–10 6–10 5–11
Ecolo 13 12 11–14 10–14 10–14 10–14
Groen 8 6 5–8 5–9 5–9 3–9
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3 5 5–8 5–8 4–8 3–8
Les Engagés 5 5 4–6 4–6 4–7 4–8
DéFI 2 2 1–4 1–4 1–4 1–5

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 2% 99.9%  
22 2% 98%  
23 3% 96%  
24 8% 93%  
25 62% 85% Median
26 15% 23%  
27 3% 8%  
28 1.3% 5%  
29 3% 3%  
30 0.7% 0.7%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.3% 100%  
17 0.9% 99.7%  
18 3% 98.7%  
19 13% 95%  
20 34% 83% Median
21 28% 49%  
22 13% 21%  
23 4% 8%  
24 2% 4%  
25 2% 2% Last Result
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 2% 99.8%  
16 11% 98%  
17 19% 87%  
18 53% 68% Median
19 12% 15%  
20 3% 4% Last Result
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 0.7% 99.7%  
9 6% 99.1% Last Result
10 14% 93%  
11 57% 79% Median
12 18% 22%  
13 2% 4%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.4% 100%  
7 2% 99.6%  
8 5% 98%  
9 10% 93%  
10 75% 83% Median
11 5% 8%  
12 2% 3% Last Result
13 0.3% 0.4%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.9% 100%  
12 6% 99.0%  
13 29% 93%  
14 39% 64% Last Result, Median
15 18% 25%  
16 5% 6%  
17 1.4% 2%  
18 0.3% 0.3%  
19 0% 0%  

Parti du Travail de Belgique

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100% Last Result
10 3% 99.9%  
11 29% 97%  
12 34% 68% Median
13 21% 34%  
14 10% 13%  
15 2% 3%  
16 0.6% 0.7%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 12% 98%  
7 9% 85%  
8 20% 76%  
9 21% 56% Median
10 34% 35%  
11 1.0% 1.1%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.4% 100%  
10 8% 99.6%  
11 30% 91%  
12 32% 62% Median
13 17% 29% Last Result
14 12% 12%  
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.7% 100%  
4 0.7% 99.3%  
5 30% 98.6%  
6 19% 68% Median
7 37% 49%  
8 6% 13% Last Result
9 6% 6%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.7% 100% Last Result
4 3% 99.3%  
5 58% 96% Median
6 14% 38%  
7 12% 25%  
8 13% 13%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Les Engagés

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 33% 100%  
5 50% 67% Last Result, Median
6 12% 17%  
7 4% 5%  
8 1.1% 1.3%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 12% 100%  
2 62% 88% Last Result, Median
3 13% 26%  
4 12% 13%  
5 0.7% 0.7%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés 93 84 100% 81–87 80–87 79–88 78–89
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen 88 79 94% 76–82 75–83 74–83 73–84
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Les Engagés 79 78 90% 75–81 75–82 74–82 72–84
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur 80 73 12% 70–76 70–77 69–77 67–79
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Groen 76 71 1.1% 68–73 67–74 66–75 65–76
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Groen – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Les Engagés 67 70 0.5% 67–72 66–73 66–74 64–76
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 72 66 0% 63–69 62–69 61–70 60–71
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Groen – Partij van de Arbeid van België 62 65 0% 62–68 61–68 61–69 59–71
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés 67 61 0% 58–63 57–64 56–64 54–66
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 68 58 0% 55–60 54–61 53–62 52–63
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés 64 56 0% 52–58 51–59 51–59 49–61
Parti Socialiste – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 63 55 0% 52–57 51–58 51–59 49–60
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 63 53 0% 50–55 49–56 49–57 47–58
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur 55 52 0% 50–55 49–55 49–56 47–57
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 46 42 0% 39–45 39–45 38–46 37–47
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 43 37 0% 34–40 34–40 33–41 32–42

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100% Majority
77 0.3% 99.9%  
78 0.7% 99.6%  
79 2% 98.9%  
80 3% 97%  
81 6% 94%  
82 9% 88%  
83 13% 78%  
84 17% 65%  
85 19% 48% Median
86 16% 28%  
87 9% 12%  
88 3% 4%  
89 0.9% 1.2%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.3% 99.9%  
73 0.8% 99.6%  
74 2% 98.8%  
75 3% 97%  
76 6% 94% Majority
77 9% 88%  
78 13% 79%  
79 17% 66%  
80 19% 50% Median
81 16% 31%  
82 9% 15%  
83 4% 5%  
84 1.1% 2%  
85 0.3% 0.4%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.5% 99.8%  
73 1.2% 99.3%  
74 3% 98%  
75 6% 95%  
76 10% 90% Majority
77 15% 80%  
78 19% 66% Median
79 19% 47% Last Result
80 14% 28%  
81 8% 14%  
82 4% 6%  
83 1.5% 2%  
84 0.5% 0.7%  
85 0.2% 0.2%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.5% 99.8%  
68 1.3% 99.4%  
69 3% 98%  
70 6% 95%  
71 11% 89%  
72 16% 78%  
73 20% 61% Median
74 18% 41%  
75 12% 23%  
76 6% 12% Majority
77 3% 5%  
78 1.4% 2%  
79 0.5% 0.7%  
80 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.7% 99.6%  
66 2% 98.9%  
67 4% 97%  
68 8% 93%  
69 12% 86%  
70 17% 73%  
71 20% 56% Median
72 17% 36%  
73 11% 19%  
74 5% 9%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.8% 1.1% Last Result, Majority
77 0.2% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Groen – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.4% 99.9%  
65 1.3% 99.5%  
66 4% 98%  
67 8% 95% Last Result
68 13% 87%  
69 19% 73% Median
70 20% 55%  
71 16% 35%  
72 10% 19%  
73 5% 10%  
74 3% 4%  
75 1.1% 2%  
76 0.4% 0.5% Majority
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.7% 99.7%  
61 2% 99.1%  
62 4% 97%  
63 7% 93%  
64 11% 85%  
65 16% 74%  
66 18% 58%  
67 17% 40% Median
68 12% 23%  
69 7% 11%  
70 3% 4%  
71 0.9% 1.2%  
72 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Groen – Partij van de Arbeid van België

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.4% 99.8%  
60 1.4% 99.4%  
61 4% 98%  
62 8% 94% Last Result
63 13% 87%  
64 18% 74% Median
65 19% 57%  
66 16% 37%  
67 10% 21%  
68 6% 11%  
69 3% 5%  
70 1.3% 2%  
71 0.5% 0.7%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.5% 99.8%  
55 1.3% 99.2%  
56 3% 98%  
57 5% 95%  
58 8% 90%  
59 13% 82%  
60 17% 69%  
61 19% 51% Median
62 16% 32%  
63 10% 16%  
64 4% 6%  
65 1.4% 2%  
66 0.4% 0.6%  
67 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
68 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.6% 99.7%  
53 2% 99.1%  
54 4% 97%  
55 7% 93%  
56 12% 86%  
57 18% 74%  
58 21% 56% Median
59 17% 36%  
60 10% 19%  
61 5% 9%  
62 2% 4%  
63 0.9% 1.3%  
64 0.3% 0.4%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0% Last Result

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.6% 99.8%  
50 1.5% 99.2%  
51 3% 98%  
52 5% 95%  
53 8% 90%  
54 12% 81%  
55 17% 69%  
56 19% 52% Median
57 16% 33%  
58 10% 17%  
59 4% 7%  
60 2% 2%  
61 0.5% 0.7%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.5% 99.8%  
50 2% 99.3%  
51 4% 98%  
52 8% 94%  
53 11% 86%  
54 15% 75%  
55 18% 60%  
56 19% 41% Median
57 13% 23%  
58 7% 9%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.5% 0.6%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.4% 99.8%  
48 1.3% 99.4%  
49 3% 98%  
50 7% 95%  
51 11% 88%  
52 17% 77%  
53 22% 60% Median
54 19% 38%  
55 11% 19%  
56 5% 8%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.7% 1.1%  
59 0.3% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.9%  
48 1.3% 99.5%  
49 3% 98%  
50 8% 95%  
51 15% 87%  
52 22% 72%  
53 23% 50% Median
54 16% 27%  
55 7% 11% Last Result
56 3% 4%  
57 0.8% 1.1%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 1.1% 99.6%  
38 3% 98.5%  
39 6% 96%  
40 10% 90%  
41 15% 80%  
42 20% 64%  
43 19% 44% Median
44 14% 25%  
45 7% 11%  
46 3% 4% Last Result
47 0.8% 1.0%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 1.1% 99.7%  
33 3% 98.6%  
34 7% 95%  
35 10% 88%  
36 14% 78%  
37 18% 64%  
38 20% 46% Median
39 14% 27%  
40 8% 12%  
41 3% 4%  
42 1.1% 1.4%  
43 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
44 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations