Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 7–14 September 2021

Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 12.0% 14.7% 12.9–13.8% 12.7–13.8% 12.6–13.8% 12.2–13.8%
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 16.0% 13.3% 11.6–12.4% 11.4–12.4% 11.2–12.4% 10.9–12.5%
Parti Socialiste 9.5% 8.0% 7.0–7.4% 6.9–7.4% 6.8–7.4% 6.6–7.4%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 8.9% 7.9% 6.5–7.1% 6.4–7.2% 6.2–7.2% 5.9–7.2%
Vooruit 6.7% 7.6% 6.8–8.2% 6.6–8.3% 6.4–8.4% 6.1–8.4%
Mouvement Réformateur 7.6% 7.6% 6.6–7.0% 6.5–7.0% 6.5–7.0% 6.3–7.0%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 8.5% 7.2% 6.0–6.6% 5.8–6.6% 5.7–6.6% 5.4–6.6%
Parti du Travail de Belgique 4.8% 6.9% 5.9–6.3% 5.8–6.3% 5.7–6.3% 5.6–6.3%
Ecolo 6.1% 6.7% 5.8–6.2% 5.7–6.2% 5.6–6.2% 5.5–6.2%
Groen 6.1% 5.9% 5.2–6.5% 5.0–6.6% 4.9–6.7% 4.6–6.7%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3.3% 4.8% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.4% 3.8–5.4% 3.6–5.5%
Les Engagés 3.7% 3.3% 2.7–2.9% 2.6–3.0% 2.5–3.0% 2.4–3.0%
DéFI 2.2% 2.3% 1.8–2.0% 1.7–2.0% 1.7–2.0% 1.6–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 18 22 20–25 20–25 19–25 19–26
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 25 20 18–21 17–22 17–23 16–25
Parti Socialiste 20 16 15–18 14–18 13–19 12–19
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 12 11 10–12 9–13 9–13 8–14
Vooruit 9 11 9–12 9–12 9–13 7–14
Mouvement Réformateur 14 15 13–17 13–17 13–18 13–18
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 12 10 9–11 8–11 7–11 6–12
Parti du Travail de Belgique 9 12 11–13 11–14 10–14 10–16
Ecolo 13 13 12–14 12–15 11–15 11–16
Groen 8 8 6–9 6–9 5–9 5–10
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3 5 5–8 4–8 3–8 3–8
Les Engagés 5 4 4–5 4–5 4–6 4–7
DéFI 2 2 1–3 1–4 1–4 1–4

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100% Last Result
19 3% 99.8%  
20 13% 97%  
21 22% 84%  
22 16% 62% Median
23 18% 46%  
24 15% 28%  
25 13% 14%  
26 0.5% 0.6%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 2% 99.9%  
17 4% 98%  
18 7% 94%  
19 18% 87%  
20 46% 69% Median
21 18% 24%  
22 3% 6%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.7% 1.2%  
25 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
26 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.7% 100%  
13 2% 99.3%  
14 6% 97%  
15 19% 92%  
16 31% 72% Median
17 24% 41%  
18 13% 17%  
19 4% 4%  
20 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
21 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100%  
8 0.4% 99.9%  
9 6% 99.5%  
10 40% 94%  
11 37% 54% Median
12 9% 16% Last Result
13 6% 8%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.5% 100%  
8 2% 99.5%  
9 13% 98% Last Result
10 31% 84%  
11 38% 54% Median
12 12% 16%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.8% 1.0%  
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.4% 100%  
13 13% 99.6%  
14 23% 86% Last Result
15 26% 64% Median
16 20% 37%  
17 14% 18%  
18 4% 4%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.1% 100%  
7 2% 98.9%  
8 5% 97%  
9 14% 93%  
10 66% 78% Median
11 11% 12%  
12 0.9% 1.1% Last Result
13 0.2% 0.3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Parti du Travail de Belgique

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100% Last Result
10 3% 99.9%  
11 22% 97%  
12 42% 75% Median
13 27% 33%  
14 3% 5%  
15 1.3% 2%  
16 0.7% 1.0%  
17 0.2% 0.3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 4% 99.8%  
12 14% 96%  
13 47% 82% Last Result, Median
14 29% 36%  
15 4% 7%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.5% 0.5%  
18 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 3% 100%  
6 16% 97%  
7 18% 81%  
8 15% 63% Last Result, Median
9 47% 48%  
10 1.0% 1.2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100%  
3 3% 99.9% Last Result
4 5% 97%  
5 46% 92% Median
6 14% 47%  
7 15% 32%  
8 18% 18%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Les Engagés

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 82% 100% Median
5 14% 18% Last Result
6 2% 3%  
7 0.6% 0.9%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 24% 100%  
2 52% 76% Last Result, Median
3 15% 24%  
4 9% 9%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés 93 88 100% 85–91 84–91 84–92 82–93
Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen 88 84 100% 81–87 80–87 79–88 78–89
Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Groen – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Les Engagés 79 81 98.9% 78–84 77–85 76–86 75–87
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen 76 73 11% 70–76 69–76 69–77 67–78
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 80 72 3% 69–74 68–75 67–76 66–77
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Groen – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Les Engagés 67 70 1.0% 67–73 66–74 66–75 64–76
Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 72 67 0% 64–69 63–70 62–71 61–72
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Groen – Partij van de Arbeid van België 62 66 0% 63–69 62–70 61–71 60–72
Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés 67 63 0% 60–66 59–67 58–68 57–69
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés 64 61 0% 58–64 57–64 57–65 55–66
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 68 60 0% 57–63 56–63 55–64 54–66
Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 63 56 0% 54–58 53–59 52–60 51–61
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 63 55 0% 53–58 52–59 51–60 50–61
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 55 52 0% 49–54 48–55 48–55 46–57
Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Les Engagés 46 42 0% 39–44 39–45 38–46 37–47
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 43 40 0% 37–42 37–43 36–44 35–45

Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.2% 99.9%  
82 0.6% 99.7%  
83 2% 99.1%  
84 4% 98%  
85 9% 94%  
86 14% 85%  
87 17% 70%  
88 17% 54% Median
89 14% 37%  
90 11% 22%  
91 7% 12%  
92 3% 5%  
93 1.1% 1.4% Last Result
94 0.3% 0.3%  
95 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100% Majority
77 0.3% 99.9%  
78 0.8% 99.5%  
79 2% 98.7%  
80 5% 97%  
81 10% 92%  
82 15% 82%  
83 17% 67%  
84 17% 50% Median
85 14% 33%  
86 10% 20%  
87 6% 10%  
88 3% 4% Last Result
89 0.9% 1.1%  
90 0.2% 0.2%  
91 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Groen – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.8% 99.7%  
76 2% 98.9% Majority
77 5% 97%  
78 9% 91%  
79 12% 82% Last Result
80 15% 70% Median
81 15% 55%  
82 14% 40%  
83 11% 26%  
84 8% 15%  
85 4% 7%  
86 2% 3%  
87 0.7% 0.9%  
88 0.2% 0.2%  
89 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.6% 99.7%  
68 1.5% 99.1%  
69 4% 98%  
70 8% 94%  
71 14% 86%  
72 17% 73%  
73 17% 55% Median
74 15% 38%  
75 12% 23%  
76 7% 11% Last Result, Majority
77 3% 4%  
78 0.7% 0.8%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.3% 99.9%  
66 1.0% 99.5%  
67 2% 98.5%  
68 5% 96%  
69 9% 91%  
70 14% 82%  
71 17% 68%  
72 18% 51% Median
73 15% 33%  
74 10% 18%  
75 5% 8%  
76 2% 3% Majority
77 0.8% 1.2%  
78 0.3% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Groen – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.5% 99.8%  
65 2% 99.4%  
66 4% 98%  
67 8% 93% Last Result
68 11% 85%  
69 14% 74% Median
70 16% 60%  
71 15% 44%  
72 12% 29%  
73 9% 17%  
74 5% 9%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.9% 1.0% Majority
77 0.2% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.6% 99.7%  
62 2% 99.1%  
63 4% 97%  
64 8% 93%  
65 15% 85%  
66 19% 71%  
67 19% 52% Median
68 14% 33%  
69 10% 19%  
70 5% 9%  
71 2% 4%  
72 0.8% 1.1% Last Result
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Groen – Partij van de Arbeid van België

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.2% 100%  
60 0.6% 99.8%  
61 2% 99.1%  
62 5% 97% Last Result
63 9% 92%  
64 12% 83%  
65 15% 71% Median
66 16% 56%  
67 14% 41%  
68 11% 26%  
69 8% 15%  
70 5% 7%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.7% 0.8%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.6% 99.8%  
58 2% 99.2%  
59 5% 97%  
60 9% 92%  
61 13% 83%  
62 16% 71%  
63 16% 55% Median
64 14% 39%  
65 11% 25%  
66 7% 14%  
67 4% 7% Last Result
68 2% 3%  
69 0.7% 0.9%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.4% 99.9%  
56 1.3% 99.4%  
57 4% 98%  
58 8% 95%  
59 12% 87%  
60 16% 75%  
61 18% 59% Median
62 17% 41%  
63 12% 24%  
64 7% 12% Last Result
65 3% 5%  
66 1.2% 2%  
67 0.4% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.2% 100%  
54 0.8% 99.8%  
55 2% 99.0%  
56 4% 97%  
57 9% 93%  
58 14% 84%  
59 17% 70%  
60 17% 53% Median
61 15% 35%  
62 10% 20%  
63 6% 10%  
64 3% 5%  
65 1.2% 2%  
66 0.4% 0.6%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 0.8% 99.6%  
52 2% 98.8%  
53 5% 97%  
54 10% 92%  
55 18% 81%  
56 23% 63% Median
57 19% 40%  
58 12% 21%  
59 6% 9%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.8% 1.1%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0% 0.1% Last Result
64 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.3% 100%  
50 0.9% 99.7%  
51 2% 98.8%  
52 5% 97%  
53 10% 91%  
54 15% 82%  
55 18% 66%  
56 17% 48% Median
57 14% 31%  
58 9% 17%  
59 5% 8%  
60 2% 4%  
61 1.0% 1.4%  
62 0.3% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
64 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.5% 99.8%  
47 1.4% 99.3%  
48 3% 98%  
49 7% 94%  
50 13% 87%  
51 19% 74%  
52 21% 55% Median
53 18% 34%  
54 10% 17%  
55 4% 6% Last Result
56 1.4% 2%  
57 0.4% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 1.1% 99.6%  
38 3% 98.6%  
39 9% 95%  
40 15% 87%  
41 19% 72%  
42 19% 53% Median
43 15% 35%  
44 10% 19%  
45 6% 9%  
46 2% 4% Last Result
47 0.8% 1.1%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.7% 99.7%  
36 2% 99.0%  
37 7% 97%  
38 14% 90%  
39 20% 75%  
40 20% 56% Median
41 17% 36%  
42 11% 19%  
43 5% 8% Last Result
44 2% 3%  
45 0.7% 1.0%  
46 0.2% 0.2%  
47 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations