Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 1–8 December 2021

Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 12.0% 15.4% 13.6–14.4% 13.4–14.4% 13.2–14.5% 12.8–14.5%
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 16.0% 13.6% 11.9–12.7% 11.7–12.7% 11.5–12.7% 11.1–12.7%
Parti Socialiste 9.5% 8.8% 7.7–8.2% 7.6–8.2% 7.6–8.2% 7.4–8.2%
Vooruit 6.7% 8.6% 7.7–9.2% 7.5–9.3% 7.3–9.4% 6.9–9.5%
Mouvement Réformateur 7.6% 8.1% 7.1–7.5% 7.0–7.5% 6.9–7.5% 6.8–7.5%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 8.9% 6.7% 5.5–6.1% 5.3–6.1% 5.2–6.1% 5.0–6.1%
Parti du Travail de Belgique 4.8% 6.7% 5.8–6.1% 5.7–6.2% 5.6–6.2% 5.5–6.2%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 8.5% 6.6% 5.4–5.9% 5.2–6.0% 5.1–6.0% 4.9–6.0%
Ecolo 6.1% 6.3% 5.4–5.7% 5.3–5.7% 5.2–5.7% 5.1–5.7%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3.3% 5.5% 4.8–6.0% 4.6–6.2% 4.5–6.2% 4.2–6.3%
Groen 6.1% 5.2% 4.5–5.7% 4.4–5.8% 4.2–5.9% 3.9–5.9%
Les Engagés 3.7% 2.8% 2.2–2.5% 2.2–2.5% 2.1–2.5% 2.0–2.5%
DéFI 2.2% 2.1% 1.6–1.8% 1.6–1.8% 1.6–1.8% 1.5–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 18 23 21–25 21–25 20–26 19–27
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 25 20 18–22 18–22 17–23 16–25
Parti Socialiste 20 17 16–19 15–19 15–20 14–20
Vooruit 9 12 11–14 11–15 10–15 9–15
Mouvement Réformateur 14 16 14–17 14–18 13–18 13–18
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 12 10 8–10 7–11 6–11 5–11
Parti du Travail de Belgique 9 12 11–13 10–13 10–13 10–14
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 12 9 7–10 6–10 6–10 6–11
Ecolo 13 12 10–13 10–13 10–14 10–14
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3 8 5–8 5–8 5–9 5–9
Groen 8 6 5–8 5–9 5–9 4–9
Les Engagés 5 5 4–5 3–5 2–5 1–5
DéFI 2 2 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–4

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0.8% 100%  
20 3% 99.2%  
21 15% 96%  
22 16% 82%  
23 17% 66% Median
24 17% 49%  
25 29% 33%  
26 3% 4%  
27 0.7% 1.0%  
28 0.3% 0.4%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.5% 99.9%  
17 2% 99.4%  
18 10% 97%  
19 10% 87%  
20 37% 77% Median
21 25% 40%  
22 11% 15%  
23 3% 5%  
24 1.1% 2%  
25 0.9% 1.0% Last Result
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.9% 100%  
15 5% 99.1%  
16 19% 94%  
17 40% 75% Median
18 24% 36%  
19 8% 11%  
20 3% 4% Last Result
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.7% 100% Last Result
10 3% 99.3%  
11 41% 96%  
12 28% 56% Median
13 12% 28%  
14 9% 15%  
15 6% 6%  
16 0.3% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 3% 99.9%  
14 19% 97% Last Result
15 20% 79%  
16 18% 59% Median
17 33% 41%  
18 8% 8%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.6% 100%  
6 4% 99.4%  
7 5% 95%  
8 7% 90%  
9 25% 83%  
10 52% 58% Median
11 5% 6%  
12 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Parti du Travail de Belgique

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100% Last Result
10 8% 99.7%  
11 33% 91%  
12 42% 58% Median
13 16% 17%  
14 1.0% 1.2%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100%  
6 7% 99.9%  
7 18% 93%  
8 16% 75%  
9 28% 59% Median
10 30% 31%  
11 1.3% 1.5%  
12 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
13 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 10% 99.8%  
11 30% 89%  
12 29% 59% Median
13 27% 30% Last Result
14 3% 3%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0.2% 100%  
5 12% 99.8%  
6 6% 87%  
7 21% 81%  
8 56% 60% Median
9 4% 4%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.5% 100%  
4 0.4% 99.5%  
5 35% 99.1%  
6 21% 64% Median
7 25% 43%  
8 10% 18% Last Result
9 7% 7%  
10 0% 0%  

Les Engagés

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 1.5% 99.7%  
2 2% 98%  
3 3% 96%  
4 38% 93%  
5 55% 55% Last Result, Median
6 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 12% 100%  
2 81% 88% Last Result, Median
3 6% 6%  
4 0.7% 0.7%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés 93 85 100% 83–88 82–89 81–90 80–91
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen 88 81 99.5% 78–84 77–85 77–86 76–87
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Les Engagés 79 80 98% 77–83 76–84 76–85 74–86
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 80 74 24% 71–77 70–78 70–78 68–80
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen 76 72 6% 69–75 68–76 68–76 67–78
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Les Engagés 67 71 3% 68–74 67–75 66–76 65–77
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 72 67 0% 64–70 64–71 63–72 62–73
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen 62 66 0% 63–69 63–70 62–71 61–73
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés 67 61 0% 58–64 57–65 57–66 55–67
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 68 58 0% 55–62 54–62 54–63 52–64
Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés 64 56 0% 53–59 53–60 52–61 50–62
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 63 55 0% 53–58 52–59 51–59 50–60
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 55 54 0% 51–56 50–57 50–58 49–59
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 63 54 0% 51–57 50–58 49–58 48–60
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 46 43 0% 40–46 40–46 39–47 37–48
Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 43 38 0% 35–41 34–42 34–42 32–43

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.2% 100%  
80 0.7% 99.8%  
81 2% 99.1%  
82 5% 97%  
83 10% 92%  
84 15% 82%  
85 18% 67%  
86 18% 49%  
87 14% 31% Median
88 9% 17%  
89 5% 9%  
90 3% 4%  
91 0.9% 1.2%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.4% 99.9%  
76 1.3% 99.5% Majority
77 3% 98%  
78 7% 95%  
79 12% 88%  
80 16% 76%  
81 18% 60%  
82 16% 42% Median
83 11% 25%  
84 7% 14%  
85 4% 7%  
86 2% 3%  
87 0.7% 1.0%  
88 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Les Engagés

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.6% 99.8%  
75 2% 99.2%  
76 4% 98% Majority
77 7% 94%  
78 13% 87%  
79 16% 75% Last Result
80 17% 58%  
81 15% 42%  
82 12% 27% Median
83 7% 15%  
84 4% 7%  
85 2% 3%  
86 0.9% 1.3%  
87 0.3% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.5% 99.9%  
69 2% 99.4%  
70 4% 98%  
71 9% 93%  
72 13% 85%  
73 16% 72%  
74 17% 56% Median
75 15% 39%  
76 11% 24% Majority
77 7% 13%  
78 3% 6%  
79 2% 2%  
80 0.6% 0.9% Last Result
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.3% 99.9%  
67 2% 99.6%  
68 5% 98%  
69 10% 93%  
70 14% 84%  
71 17% 70%  
72 17% 53% Median
73 14% 35%  
74 9% 22%  
75 6% 12%  
76 4% 6% Last Result, Majority
77 2% 2%  
78 0.5% 0.8%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Les Engagés

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.6% 99.9%  
66 2% 99.2%  
67 4% 97% Last Result
68 10% 93%  
69 14% 83%  
70 17% 69%  
71 16% 52%  
72 14% 36% Median
73 10% 22%  
74 6% 12%  
75 4% 6%  
76 2% 3% Majority
77 0.6% 0.9%  
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.3% 99.9%  
62 1.1% 99.6%  
63 3% 98%  
64 6% 96%  
65 10% 90%  
66 14% 80%  
67 17% 65%  
68 17% 48%  
69 14% 31% Median
70 9% 17%  
71 5% 8%  
72 2% 3% Last Result
73 0.9% 1.1%  
74 0.2% 0.2%  
75 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 1.2% 99.6%  
62 3% 98% Last Result
63 7% 95%  
64 12% 89%  
65 15% 77%  
66 16% 62%  
67 15% 46% Median
68 13% 30%  
69 8% 18%  
70 5% 10%  
71 3% 5%  
72 1.2% 2%  
73 0.4% 0.6%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.5% 99.8%  
56 1.3% 99.3%  
57 3% 98%  
58 7% 95%  
59 13% 88%  
60 16% 75%  
61 17% 58%  
62 16% 41% Median
63 11% 25%  
64 7% 14%  
65 4% 7%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.8% 1.1% Last Result
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100%  
52 0.5% 99.8%  
53 1.4% 99.3%  
54 3% 98%  
55 6% 95%  
56 10% 88%  
57 13% 78%  
58 16% 65%  
59 16% 49%  
60 13% 33% Median
61 9% 20%  
62 6% 11%  
63 3% 4%  
64 0.9% 1.2%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0% Last Result

Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.4% 99.8%  
51 1.2% 99.4%  
52 3% 98%  
53 6% 95%  
54 11% 89%  
55 15% 79%  
56 17% 64%  
57 16% 47%  
58 13% 30% Median
59 9% 17%  
60 5% 8%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.7% 1.0%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 0.8% 99.7%  
51 2% 98.9%  
52 6% 97%  
53 10% 91%  
54 14% 81%  
55 17% 67%  
56 18% 50%  
57 16% 31% Median
58 10% 16%  
59 4% 5%  
60 0.8% 0.9%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.4% 99.9%  
49 2% 99.5%  
50 4% 98%  
51 9% 94%  
52 14% 85%  
53 19% 71%  
54 19% 52% Median
55 15% 33% Last Result
56 9% 18%  
57 5% 9%  
58 3% 4%  
59 0.9% 1.2%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.8% 99.7%  
49 2% 99.0%  
50 4% 97%  
51 8% 93%  
52 11% 85%  
53 15% 74%  
54 16% 59%  
55 15% 42% Median
56 12% 27%  
57 8% 15%  
58 5% 7%  
59 2% 2%  
60 0.4% 0.5%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.8%  
38 1.3% 99.4%  
39 3% 98%  
40 6% 95%  
41 12% 89%  
42 18% 76%  
43 20% 58%  
44 16% 38% Median
45 11% 22%  
46 7% 11% Last Result
47 3% 5%  
48 1.1% 1.5%  
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.5% 99.8%  
33 1.3% 99.4%  
34 4% 98%  
35 7% 94%  
36 10% 88%  
37 14% 77%  
38 17% 63%  
39 16% 46%  
40 13% 29% Median
41 10% 16%  
42 5% 6%  
43 1.0% 1.1% Last Result
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations