Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 15–22 March 2022

Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 16.0% 14.8% 13.0–13.8% 12.8–13.8% 12.6–13.9% 12.2–13.9%
Vlaams Belang 12.0% 14.0% 12.2–13.0% 12.0–13.0% 11.8–13.0% 11.5–13.1%
Vooruit 6.7% 8.8% 7.9–9.4% 7.7–9.5% 7.5–9.6% 7.1–9.7%
Parti Socialiste 9.5% 8.1% 7.1–7.5% 7.0–7.5% 6.9–7.5% 6.7–7.5%
Mouvement Réformateur 7.6% 7.7% 6.7–7.1% 6.6–7.1% 6.5–7.1% 6.4–7.1%
Parti du Travail de Belgique 4.8% 7.3% 6.4–6.7% 6.3–6.7% 6.2–6.7% 6.0–6.7%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 8.9% 7.0% 5.7–6.3% 5.6–6.3% 5.4–6.3% 5.2–6.3%
Ecolo 6.1% 6.3% 5.5–5.8% 5.4–5.8% 5.4–5.8% 5.2–5.9%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 8.5% 6.2% 5.0–5.6% 4.9–5.6% 4.8–5.6% 4.5–5.6%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3.3% 5.5% 4.8–6.1% 4.7–6.2% 4.5–6.2% 4.2–6.3%
Groen 6.1% 5.2% 4.6–5.7% 4.4–5.8% 4.2–5.9% 4.0–5.9%
Les Engagés 3.7% 3.3% 2.6–2.9% 2.6–2.9% 2.5–2.9% 2.4–2.9%
DéFI 2.2% 1.9% 1.5–1.7% 1.5–1.7% 1.4–1.7% 1.3–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 25 22 20–25 20–25 20–25 18–26
Vlaams Belang 18 21 19–23 19–23 18–24 17–25
Vooruit 9 12 11–14 11–15 11–15 10–15
Parti Socialiste 20 17 15–18 15–18 14–18 13–19
Mouvement Réformateur 14 15 13–17 13–17 13–18 13–18
Parti du Travail de Belgique 9 13 12–14 11–15 11–16 11–18
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 12 10 9–11 8–11 8–11 6–13
Ecolo 13 12 11–14 11–14 10–14 10–15
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 12 8 6–10 6–10 6–10 6–10
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3 8 6–8 5–8 5–9 5–9
Groen 8 6 5–8 5–9 5–9 4–9
Les Engagés 5 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
DéFI 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.5% 100%  
19 2% 99.5%  
20 14% 98%  
21 26% 84%  
22 18% 58% Median
23 15% 40%  
24 10% 26%  
25 13% 15% Last Result
26 2% 2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 0.5% 99.7%  
18 3% 99.3% Last Result
19 22% 97%  
20 16% 74%  
21 26% 58% Median
22 19% 32%  
23 10% 13%  
24 2% 3%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0% 0%  

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100% Last Result
10 2% 99.8%  
11 23% 98%  
12 35% 75% Median
13 17% 39%  
14 13% 22%  
15 8% 9%  
16 0.3% 0.4%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 0.6% 99.7%  
14 4% 99.1%  
15 16% 96%  
16 27% 79%  
17 26% 52% Median
18 25% 26%  
19 0.8% 1.0%  
20 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
21 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 15% 99.8%  
14 24% 85% Last Result
15 28% 60% Median
16 17% 32%  
17 12% 15%  
18 4% 4%  
19 0% 0%  

Parti du Travail de Belgique

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0.3% 100%  
11 5% 99.7%  
12 26% 95%  
13 45% 69% Median
14 15% 23%  
15 5% 9%  
16 2% 4%  
17 1.4% 2%  
18 0.7% 0.7%  
19 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.2% 100%  
7 1.1% 98.7%  
8 5% 98%  
9 19% 93%  
10 57% 73% Median
11 14% 16%  
12 1.0% 2% Last Result
13 0.6% 0.7%  
14 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 3% 99.9%  
11 22% 97%  
12 29% 75% Median
13 35% 46% Last Result
14 10% 11%  
15 1.0% 1.1%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 0.2% 99.9%  
6 20% 99.7%  
7 19% 80%  
8 22% 62% Median
9 18% 40%  
10 22% 22%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0.1% 100%  
5 9% 99.8%  
6 4% 91%  
7 25% 88%  
8 58% 63% Median
9 4% 5%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.4% 100%  
4 0.4% 99.6%  
5 32% 99.2%  
6 27% 67% Median
7 26% 41%  
8 7% 15% Last Result
9 8% 8%  
10 0% 0%  

Les Engagés

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 66% 100% Median
5 32% 34% Last Result
6 2% 2%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 23% 100%  
2 77% 77% Last Result, Median
3 0.4% 0.5%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Les Engagés 93 85 100% 82–88 81–89 80–89 78–91
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Les Engagés 79 82 99.8% 79–85 78–86 78–87 76–88
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen 88 80 98% 77–83 77–84 76–85 74–86
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 80 74 29% 71–77 70–78 69–79 68–80
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Les Engagés 67 72 10% 69–75 69–76 68–77 67–78
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen 76 71 2% 68–74 67–74 66–75 64–76
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen 62 68 0% 65–71 64–72 64–73 62–74
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 72 66 0% 63–69 62–70 62–71 60–72
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés 67 62 0% 59–65 58–66 57–66 56–68
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 68 59 0% 56–63 55–63 55–64 53–66
Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Les Engagés 64 56 0% 53–59 52–60 51–60 50–62
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 63 55 0% 52–58 51–59 50–60 49–61
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 63 54 0% 51–56 50–57 49–58 48–59
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 55 52 0% 49–55 48–56 48–56 46–57
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 46 43 0% 41–46 40–46 39–47 38–48
Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 43 37 0% 34–40 34–41 33–41 32–42

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.3% 99.8%  
79 0.8% 99.5%  
80 2% 98.7%  
81 5% 97%  
82 8% 92%  
83 13% 84%  
84 17% 71% Median
85 18% 54%  
86 15% 36%  
87 10% 21%  
88 6% 11%  
89 3% 5%  
90 1.4% 2%  
91 0.5% 0.6%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.4% 99.8% Majority
77 1.3% 99.3%  
78 3% 98%  
79 7% 95% Last Result
80 11% 88%  
81 15% 77%  
82 17% 62% Median
83 16% 44%  
84 12% 29%  
85 8% 17%  
86 5% 8%  
87 2% 4%  
88 0.9% 1.2%  
89 0.3% 0.3%  
90 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.5% 99.7%  
75 1.2% 99.2%  
76 3% 98% Majority
77 6% 95%  
78 10% 89%  
79 14% 79%  
80 18% 65% Median
81 17% 47%  
82 13% 30%  
83 8% 17%  
84 5% 9%  
85 3% 4%  
86 1.0% 1.4%  
87 0.3% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
89 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.7% 99.7%  
69 2% 99.0%  
70 3% 97%  
71 6% 94%  
72 11% 88%  
73 15% 77%  
74 17% 61% Median
75 15% 45%  
76 13% 29% Majority
77 9% 17%  
78 5% 8%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.7% 0.9% Last Result
81 0.2% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.3% 99.9%  
67 1.0% 99.6% Last Result
68 3% 98.6%  
69 6% 96%  
70 10% 90%  
71 15% 80%  
72 17% 65% Median
73 16% 48%  
74 13% 31%  
75 9% 19%  
76 6% 10% Majority
77 3% 4%  
78 1.0% 1.4%  
79 0.3% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.4% 99.8%  
65 1.0% 99.4%  
66 2% 98%  
67 5% 96%  
68 9% 91%  
69 14% 82%  
70 17% 67% Median
71 17% 50%  
72 13% 34%  
73 10% 20%  
74 6% 11%  
75 3% 5%  
76 1.2% 2% Last Result, Majority
77 0.3% 0.4%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.2% 100%  
62 0.5% 99.8% Last Result
63 2% 99.3%  
64 4% 98%  
65 8% 94%  
66 12% 86%  
67 16% 74%  
68 17% 58% Median
69 15% 42%  
70 11% 27%  
71 8% 15%  
72 5% 8%  
73 2% 3%  
74 0.7% 1.0%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.6% 99.7%  
61 2% 99.1%  
62 3% 98%  
63 7% 94%  
64 11% 88%  
65 15% 77%  
66 18% 62% Median
67 17% 44%  
68 13% 27%  
69 8% 15%  
70 4% 7%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.6% 0.8% Last Result
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.6% 99.8%  
57 2% 99.2%  
58 5% 97%  
59 9% 93%  
60 14% 84%  
61 17% 70% Median
62 17% 52%  
63 14% 36%  
64 10% 22%  
65 6% 12%  
66 3% 6%  
67 1.5% 2% Last Result
68 0.5% 0.7%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.5% 99.9%  
54 2% 99.4%  
55 4% 98%  
56 7% 94%  
57 10% 87%  
58 13% 77%  
59 15% 64% Median
60 15% 48%  
61 13% 33%  
62 9% 20%  
63 6% 11%  
64 3% 5%  
65 1.3% 2%  
66 0.5% 0.6%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0% Last Result

Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 0.9% 99.6%  
51 2% 98.8%  
52 5% 97%  
53 9% 92%  
54 13% 83%  
55 16% 70% Median
56 17% 54%  
57 14% 37%  
58 11% 23%  
59 7% 13%  
60 4% 6%  
61 2% 2%  
62 0.6% 0.8%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0% Last Result

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.7% 99.9%  
50 2% 99.2%  
51 5% 97%  
52 8% 92%  
53 11% 84%  
54 15% 73%  
55 16% 59% Median
56 15% 42%  
57 12% 27%  
58 8% 16%  
59 4% 8%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.8% 1.1%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0% 0.1% Last Result
64 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.6% 99.7%  
49 2% 99.0%  
50 4% 97%  
51 9% 94%  
52 14% 85%  
53 17% 71%  
54 17% 54% Median
55 16% 37%  
56 12% 21%  
57 6% 9%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.5% 0.6%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.5% 99.8%  
47 1.4% 99.3%  
48 4% 98%  
49 7% 94%  
50 12% 87%  
51 16% 75%  
52 18% 59% Median
53 17% 41%  
54 12% 24%  
55 7% 12% Last Result
56 3% 5%  
57 1.2% 2%  
58 0.3% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.7% 99.7%  
39 2% 99.0%  
40 6% 97%  
41 11% 91%  
42 17% 80%  
43 20% 63% Median
44 19% 43%  
45 13% 25%  
46 8% 12% Last Result
47 3% 4%  
48 0.7% 0.9%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.8% 99.7%  
33 3% 98.9%  
34 7% 96%  
35 12% 88%  
36 15% 76%  
37 17% 61% Median
38 16% 44%  
39 13% 28%  
40 8% 15%  
41 4% 7%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations