Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 6–14 June 2022

Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 16.0% 15.6% 13.8–14.6% 13.6–14.7% 13.4–14.7% 13.0–14.7%
Vlaams Belang 12.0% 14.2% 12.4–13.2% 12.2–13.3% 12.0–13.3% 11.7–13.3%
Parti Socialiste 9.5% 9.3% 8.2–8.6% 8.1–8.7% 8.0–8.7% 7.8–8.7%
Vooruit 6.7% 9.1% 8.3–9.8% 8.0–9.9% 7.8–10.0% 7.5–10.1%
Mouvement Réformateur 7.6% 7.6% 6.6–7.0% 6.5–7.0% 6.4–7.0% 6.3–7.0%
Parti du Travail de Belgique 4.8% 6.9% 6.0–6.3% 5.9–6.3% 5.8–6.3% 5.6–6.4%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 8.9% 6.4% 5.2–5.7% 5.0–5.7% 4.9–5.8% 4.7–5.8%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 8.5% 5.9% 4.8–5.3% 4.6–5.3% 4.5–5.3% 4.3–5.3%
Ecolo 6.1% 5.8% 5.0–5.4% 5.0–5.4% 4.9–5.4% 4.7–5.4%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3.3% 5.3% 4.6–5.8% 4.4–5.9% 4.3–5.9% 4.0–6.0%
Groen 6.1% 4.9% 4.3–5.4% 4.1–5.5% 4.0–5.6% 3.7–5.6%
Les Engagés 3.7% 3.0% 2.4–2.6% 2.3–2.6% 2.3–2.6% 2.2–2.6%
DéFI 2.2% 2.1% 1.6–1.8% 1.6–1.8% 1.5–1.8% 1.5–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 25 25 21–26 21–26 21–27 20–28
Vlaams Belang 18 21 19–23 19–24 19–24 18–25
Parti Socialiste 20 19 18–20 18–21 17–21 16–21
Vooruit 9 13 11–15 11–15 11–15 11–17
Mouvement Réformateur 14 15 14–16 13–16 13–17 13–18
Parti du Travail de Belgique 9 12 11–14 11–14 11–15 10–15
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 12 9 6–10 6–10 6–10 5–11
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 12 7 6–9 6–10 6–10 5–10
Ecolo 13 11 10–12 10–13 10–13 9–14
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3 7 5–8 5–8 5–8 4–9
Groen 8 6 5–7 5–8 4–8 3–9
Les Engagés 5 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
DéFI 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–3 1–4

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 2% 99.9%  
21 8% 98%  
22 10% 90%  
23 13% 79%  
24 16% 66%  
25 38% 50% Last Result, Median
26 9% 12%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.5% 0.6%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.3% 99.9%  
18 1.5% 99.6% Last Result
19 11% 98%  
20 17% 87%  
21 37% 71% Median
22 14% 34%  
23 12% 19%  
24 5% 8%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.6% 99.9%  
17 4% 99.4%  
18 27% 96%  
19 40% 69% Median
20 19% 29% Last Result
21 10% 10%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0.4% 100%  
11 12% 99.6%  
12 29% 87%  
13 17% 58% Median
14 22% 41%  
15 17% 20%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.5% 0.6%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.4% 100%  
13 5% 99.6%  
14 31% 95% Last Result
15 48% 64% Median
16 12% 16%  
17 3% 5%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Parti du Travail de Belgique

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 2% 100%  
11 31% 98%  
12 35% 67% Median
13 21% 32%  
14 8% 11%  
15 2% 3%  
16 0.4% 0.4%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 11% 98%  
7 6% 87%  
8 16% 81%  
9 32% 65% Median
10 32% 34%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0% 0.1% Last Result
13 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.4% 100%  
5 0.7% 99.5%  
6 31% 98.9%  
7 26% 68% Median
8 24% 42%  
9 9% 18%  
10 9% 9%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 2% 100%  
10 29% 98%  
11 39% 69% Median
12 20% 30%  
13 8% 10% Last Result
14 2% 2%  
15 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100% Last Result
4 0.8% 99.9%  
5 22% 99.1%  
6 7% 77%  
7 21% 70% Median
8 48% 49%  
9 1.0% 1.0%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 2% 100%  
4 1.2% 98%  
5 46% 96%  
6 26% 50% Median
7 19% 25%  
8 3% 6% Last Result
9 2% 2%  
10 0% 0%  

Les Engagés

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.2% 99.9%  
3 0.5% 99.8%  
4 87% 99.3% Median
5 12% 12% Last Result
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 19% 100%  
2 78% 81% Last Result, Median
3 2% 3%  
4 0.8% 0.8%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés 93 84 100% 81–87 80–88 80–88 78–90
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Les Engagés 79 81 98.9% 78–84 77–84 76–85 75–86
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen 88 80 97% 77–83 76–83 75–84 74–86
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 80 78 88% 75–81 74–82 74–83 72–84
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Les Engagés 67 72 7% 69–75 69–76 68–76 67–78
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen 76 71 3% 68–74 67–75 67–76 66–77
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen 62 68 0% 65–71 64–72 64–72 62–73
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 72 67 0% 64–70 63–71 63–71 61–73
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés 67 62 0% 59–65 58–65 57–66 56–67
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 68 59 0% 56–62 55–63 55–63 53–65
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 63 55 0% 52–58 51–58 50–59 49–61
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 55 54 0% 51–57 51–58 50–59 49–60
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 63 54 0% 51–57 50–58 50–58 48–59
Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés 64 52 0% 49–55 48–55 47–56 46–58
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 46 45 0% 42–47 42–48 41–49 40–50
Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 43 35 0% 32–38 32–38 31–39 30–40

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100% Majority
77 0.2% 99.9%  
78 0.6% 99.7%  
79 1.5% 99.1%  
80 3% 98%  
81 7% 94%  
82 13% 87%  
83 17% 74%  
84 18% 57% Median
85 15% 39%  
86 12% 24%  
87 7% 12%  
88 3% 5%  
89 1.3% 2%  
90 0.5% 0.7%  
91 0.2% 0.2%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 0.7% 99.6%  
76 2% 98.9% Majority
77 4% 97%  
78 7% 93%  
79 12% 86% Last Result
80 17% 74%  
81 20% 57% Median
82 16% 37%  
83 10% 21%  
84 6% 11%  
85 3% 5%  
86 1.2% 2%  
87 0.3% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.6% 99.7%  
75 2% 99.0%  
76 4% 97% Majority
77 8% 94%  
78 13% 86%  
79 18% 73%  
80 18% 55% Median
81 15% 37%  
82 11% 22%  
83 6% 11%  
84 3% 5%  
85 1.1% 2%  
86 0.4% 0.6%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.4% 99.8%  
73 1.3% 99.3%  
74 3% 98%  
75 7% 95%  
76 11% 88% Majority
77 14% 77%  
78 16% 62%  
79 16% 46% Median
80 13% 30% Last Result
81 9% 17%  
82 5% 9%  
83 2% 4%  
84 0.9% 1.3%  
85 0.3% 0.4%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.3% 99.9%  
67 1.1% 99.6% Last Result
68 3% 98%  
69 6% 95%  
70 11% 89%  
71 17% 78%  
72 19% 61% Median
73 16% 42%  
74 11% 26%  
75 8% 15%  
76 4% 7% Majority
77 2% 2%  
78 0.5% 0.6%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.4% 99.9%  
66 1.2% 99.5%  
67 3% 98%  
68 7% 95%  
69 12% 88%  
70 16% 76%  
71 17% 60% Median
72 16% 43%  
73 13% 28%  
74 8% 15%  
75 4% 7%  
76 2% 3% Last Result, Majority
77 0.8% 1.0%  
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
63 1.2% 99.5%  
64 4% 98%  
65 6% 95%  
66 12% 88%  
67 18% 76%  
68 19% 58% Median
69 15% 40%  
70 11% 25%  
71 7% 14%  
72 4% 6%  
73 2% 2%  
74 0.4% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.6% 99.8%  
62 1.5% 99.2%  
63 3% 98%  
64 7% 94%  
65 12% 88%  
66 16% 76%  
67 17% 60% Median
68 16% 43%  
69 12% 26%  
70 8% 14%  
71 4% 6%  
72 2% 2% Last Result
73 0.6% 0.8%  
74 0.2% 0.2%  
75 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.7% 99.7%  
57 2% 99.0%  
58 4% 97%  
59 8% 94%  
60 14% 86%  
61 18% 72%  
62 18% 54% Median
63 15% 36%  
64 11% 21%  
65 6% 10%  
66 3% 4%  
67 0.9% 1.2% Last Result
68 0.3% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.5% 99.8%  
54 2% 99.4%  
55 4% 98%  
56 8% 93%  
57 12% 85%  
58 14% 74%  
59 18% 60%  
60 18% 42% Median
61 12% 24%  
62 7% 12%  
63 4% 6%  
64 1.4% 2%  
65 0.5% 0.6%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0% Last Result

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.5% 99.8%  
50 2% 99.3%  
51 5% 97%  
52 8% 93%  
53 12% 84%  
54 14% 72%  
55 18% 58%  
56 18% 40% Median
57 11% 22%  
58 6% 11%  
59 3% 5%  
60 1.2% 2%  
61 0.4% 0.5%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.7% 99.9%  
50 3% 99.1%  
51 7% 96%  
52 11% 90%  
53 15% 78%  
54 17% 63% Median
55 17% 46% Last Result
56 13% 29%  
57 9% 16%  
58 5% 7%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.7% 0.8%  
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.5% 99.9%  
49 2% 99.4%  
50 3% 98%  
51 6% 94%  
52 11% 88%  
53 17% 77%  
54 19% 59% Median
55 16% 40%  
56 12% 24%  
57 7% 12%  
58 3% 5%  
59 1.4% 2%  
60 0.4% 0.4%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.6% 99.8%  
47 2% 99.1%  
48 4% 97%  
49 8% 93%  
50 13% 86%  
51 17% 73%  
52 19% 56% Median
53 16% 37%  
54 11% 21%  
55 6% 11%  
56 3% 5%  
57 1.3% 2%  
58 0.4% 0.6%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.4% 99.9%  
40 1.2% 99.6%  
41 3% 98%  
42 7% 95%  
43 13% 89%  
44 18% 76%  
45 19% 58% Median
46 18% 39% Last Result
47 12% 21%  
48 6% 9%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.5% 0.7%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.3% 100%  
30 1.3% 99.7%  
31 3% 98%  
32 6% 95%  
33 11% 89%  
34 19% 79%  
35 23% 60% Median
36 16% 37%  
37 10% 21%  
38 7% 11%  
39 3% 4%  
40 0.9% 1.2%  
41 0.3% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations