Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 7–13 September 2022

Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 12.0% 13.4% 12.3–14.1% 12.1–14.2% 11.8–14.3% 11.4–14.4%
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 16.0% 13.3% 12.3–14.0% 12.0–14.2% 11.8–14.3% 11.3–14.3%
Vooruit 6.7% 10.4% 9.5–11.1% 9.2–11.2% 9.0–11.3% 8.6–11.4%
Parti Socialiste 9.5% 8.7% 7.7–8.1% 7.6–8.1% 7.6–8.2% 7.4–8.2%
Mouvement Réformateur 7.6% 8.3% 7.4–7.7% 7.3–7.8% 7.2–7.8% 7.0–7.8%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 8.5% 6.9% 6.1–7.5% 5.9–7.6% 5.7–7.6% 5.4–7.7%
Parti du Travail de Belgique 4.8% 6.6% 5.7–6.1% 5.6–6.1% 5.5–6.1% 5.4–6.1%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 8.9% 6.1% 5.4–6.7% 5.2–6.8% 5.0–6.9% 4.7–6.9%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3.3% 5.4% 4.7–5.9% 4.5–6.0% 4.4–6.1% 4.1–6.1%
Ecolo 6.1% 5.4% 4.6–4.9% 4.5–4.9% 4.4–4.9% 4.3–4.9%
Groen 6.1% 5.3% 4.6–5.8% 4.5–5.9% 4.3–6.0% 4.0–6.1%
Les Engagés 3.7% 3.1% 2.5–2.7% 2.4–2.7% 2.4–2.7% 2.3–2.7%
DéFI 2.2% 2.4% 1.9–2.1% 1.9–2.1% 1.8–2.1% 1.7–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 18 21 18–22 18–22 17–23 16–24
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 25 20 18–22 18–22 17–23 16–25
Vooruit 9 15 14–17 13–17 12–18 12–19
Parti Socialiste 20 18 16–19 16–20 16–20 15–21
Mouvement Réformateur 14 17 15–18 15–19 15–19 14–20
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 12 10 8–10 7–11 7–11 6–12
Parti du Travail de Belgique 9 11 10–12 10–13 10–13 10–14
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 12 9 6–10 5–10 5–10 5–11
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3 8 5–8 5–8 5–9 4–9
Ecolo 13 10 9–11 9–12 9–12 8–12
Groen 8 7 5–9 5–9 5–9 4–9
Les Engagés 5 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
DéFI 2 2 1–4 1–4 1–4 1–4

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 0.7% 99.8%  
17 3% 99.1%  
18 7% 96% Last Result
19 20% 89%  
20 17% 68%  
21 41% 52% Median
22 6% 10%  
23 3% 5%  
24 0.9% 1.3%  
25 0.4% 0.4%  
26 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.6% 99.9%  
17 3% 99.3%  
18 7% 96%  
19 16% 89%  
20 37% 74% Median
21 23% 37%  
22 10% 14%  
23 3% 5%  
24 1.3% 2%  
25 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
26 0% 0%  

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0.4% 100%  
12 3% 99.6%  
13 3% 97%  
14 14% 93%  
15 45% 80% Median
16 21% 34%  
17 9% 13%  
18 2% 4%  
19 1.2% 1.5%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.7% 99.9%  
16 10% 99.2%  
17 27% 89%  
18 36% 62% Median
19 20% 26%  
20 5% 6% Last Result
21 0.8% 0.9%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 2% 99.9% Last Result
15 10% 98%  
16 20% 88%  
17 23% 67% Median
18 35% 45%  
19 9% 9%  
20 0.7% 0.7%  
21 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.0% 100%  
7 5% 99.0%  
8 8% 94%  
9 30% 86%  
10 50% 56% Median
11 4% 6%  
12 2% 2% Last Result
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Parti du Travail de Belgique

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.4% 100% Last Result
10 12% 99.6%  
11 44% 88% Median
12 34% 44%  
13 8% 9%  
14 1.1% 2%  
15 0.3% 0.4%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 7% 100%  
6 13% 93%  
7 12% 80%  
8 17% 68%  
9 25% 52% Median
10 26% 27%  
11 0.6% 0.6%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0.5% 100%  
5 17% 99.5%  
6 13% 83%  
7 17% 70%  
8 51% 53% Median
9 2% 3%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 2% 100%  
9 19% 98%  
10 62% 80% Median
11 13% 18%  
12 5% 5%  
13 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
14 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.3% 100%  
4 0.7% 99.7%  
5 24% 99.0%  
6 16% 75%  
7 35% 59% Median
8 13% 24% Last Result
9 11% 11%  
10 0% 0%  

Les Engagés

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.1% 99.9%  
4 89% 99.8% Median
5 11% 11% Last Result
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 18% 100%  
2 35% 82% Last Result, Median
3 26% 48%  
4 21% 22%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés 93 89 100% 86–91 85–92 84–93 83–94
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen 88 85 100% 81–87 81–88 80–89 79–90
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Les Engagés 79 81 98% 78–84 77–84 76–85 75–87
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 80 80 98% 77–83 76–83 76–84 74–86
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen 76 76 65% 74–79 73–80 72–80 71–82
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Les Engagés 67 72 9% 69–75 69–76 68–77 66–78
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 72 72 5% 69–75 68–76 67–76 66–77
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen 62 68 0.1% 65–71 64–72 64–73 62–74
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés 67 62 0% 59–65 58–66 57–66 56–68
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 55 60 0% 57–62 56–63 56–63 54–65
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 68 59 0% 56–62 55–63 54–63 53–65
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 63 57 0% 54–59 53–60 52–61 51–61
Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés 64 56 0% 52–58 52–59 51–60 49–61
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 63 55 0% 52–58 51–58 50–59 49–60
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 46 45 0% 42–48 42–49 41–49 40–51
Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 43 39 0% 36–42 35–42 34–43 33–44

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.3% 99.9%  
83 0.9% 99.6%  
84 3% 98.7%  
85 6% 96%  
86 10% 91%  
87 13% 81%  
88 15% 68%  
89 16% 53%  
90 15% 37% Median
91 12% 22%  
92 6% 10%  
93 2% 3% Last Result
94 0.7% 0.9%  
95 0.2% 0.2%  
96 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.3% 99.9%  
79 1.1% 99.6%  
80 3% 98%  
81 6% 96%  
82 10% 90%  
83 13% 80%  
84 15% 67%  
85 16% 52%  
86 15% 35% Median
87 11% 20%  
88 6% 9% Last Result
89 2% 3%  
90 0.6% 0.8%  
91 0.2% 0.2%  
92 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.4% 99.9%  
75 1.0% 99.5%  
76 3% 98% Majority
77 5% 96%  
78 9% 90%  
79 14% 81% Last Result
80 16% 67%  
81 16% 52%  
82 14% 35% Median
83 10% 21%  
84 6% 11%  
85 3% 5%  
86 1.3% 2%  
87 0.4% 0.6%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.2% 100%  
74 0.5% 99.8%  
75 2% 99.3%  
76 4% 98% Majority
77 8% 93%  
78 13% 85%  
79 17% 71%  
80 18% 54% Last Result, Median
81 15% 36%  
82 10% 21%  
83 6% 11%  
84 3% 5%  
85 1.2% 2%  
86 0.4% 0.6%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.3% 99.9%  
71 1.0% 99.5%  
72 3% 98%  
73 6% 96%  
74 10% 90%  
75 15% 80%  
76 18% 65% Last Result, Majority
77 19% 47% Median
78 14% 28%  
79 8% 14%  
80 4% 6%  
81 2% 2%  
82 0.6% 0.8%  
83 0.2% 0.2%  
84 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.4% 99.9%  
67 1.2% 99.5% Last Result
68 3% 98%  
69 6% 95%  
70 10% 89%  
71 14% 79%  
72 17% 65%  
73 17% 48% Median
74 13% 31%  
75 9% 18%  
76 5% 9% Majority
77 2% 4%  
78 1.0% 2%  
79 0.4% 0.5%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.5% 99.8%  
67 2% 99.3%  
68 5% 97%  
69 9% 93%  
70 12% 84%  
71 14% 72%  
72 16% 58% Last Result
73 16% 42% Median
74 13% 26%  
75 8% 13%  
76 3% 5% Majority
77 1.2% 2%  
78 0.4% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
63 1.3% 99.4%  
64 3% 98%  
65 6% 95%  
66 11% 89%  
67 15% 78%  
68 17% 63%  
69 17% 46% Median
70 13% 29%  
71 8% 16%  
72 5% 8%  
73 2% 4%  
74 0.9% 1.3%  
75 0.3% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.7% 99.8%  
57 2% 99.1%  
58 4% 97%  
59 7% 93%  
60 11% 86%  
61 14% 75%  
62 17% 61%  
63 17% 45% Median
64 13% 28%  
65 8% 14%  
66 4% 6%  
67 2% 2% Last Result
68 0.5% 0.7%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.4% 99.9%  
55 1.3% 99.5% Last Result
56 4% 98%  
57 8% 95%  
58 14% 87%  
59 20% 72%  
60 21% 52% Median
61 16% 31%  
62 9% 15%  
63 4% 6%  
64 1.4% 2%  
65 0.4% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.6% 99.8%  
54 2% 99.2%  
55 4% 97%  
56 7% 93%  
57 12% 86%  
58 15% 74%  
59 16% 59%  
60 15% 43% Median
61 13% 27%  
62 9% 14%  
63 4% 6%  
64 1.3% 2%  
65 0.4% 0.6%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.5% 99.8%  
52 2% 99.3%  
53 5% 97%  
54 10% 92%  
55 13% 83%  
56 15% 70%  
57 16% 55%  
58 16% 38% Median
59 13% 22%  
60 7% 9%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.4% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
64 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.4% 99.9%  
50 1.3% 99.4%  
51 3% 98%  
52 6% 95%  
53 9% 89%  
54 12% 81%  
55 15% 68%  
56 17% 53%  
57 15% 36% Median
58 11% 21%  
59 6% 9%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.8% 1.0%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0% Last Result

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.6% 99.8%  
50 2% 99.1%  
51 4% 97%  
52 8% 93%  
53 12% 85%  
54 15% 73%  
55 17% 57%  
56 15% 41% Median
57 13% 26%  
58 8% 13%  
59 3% 5%  
60 1.0% 2%  
61 0.3% 0.5%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0.9% 99.8%  
41 3% 98.9%  
42 6% 96%  
43 10% 90%  
44 13% 80%  
45 17% 67%  
46 18% 50% Last Result, Median
47 16% 32%  
48 10% 16%  
49 4% 6%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.5% 0.7%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.5% 99.9%  
34 2% 99.4%  
35 5% 97%  
36 8% 93%  
37 13% 85%  
38 15% 72%  
39 16% 57%  
40 16% 41% Median
41 14% 25%  
42 9% 12%  
43 3% 3% Last Result
44 0.5% 0.6%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations