Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 21–29 November 2022

Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 12.0% 15.7% 14.7–16.5% 14.4–16.7% 14.1–16.8% 13.6–16.8%
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 16.0% 13.6% 12.6–14.3% 12.3–14.5% 12.1–14.5% 11.6–14.6%
Vooruit 6.7% 9.9% 9.0–10.6% 8.8–10.7% 8.6–10.8% 8.2–10.9%
Parti Socialiste 9.5% 8.9% 7.9–8.3% 7.8–8.3% 7.7–8.3% 7.5–8.3%
Mouvement Réformateur 7.6% 7.8% 6.8–7.2% 6.7–7.2% 6.6–7.2% 6.5–7.2%
Parti du Travail de Belgique 4.8% 6.7% 5.8–6.1% 5.7–6.2% 5.6–6.2% 5.5–6.2%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 8.9% 5.9% 5.2–6.5% 5.0–6.6% 4.9–6.7% 4.6–6.7%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 8.5% 5.7% 5.0–6.3% 4.9–6.4% 4.7–6.5% 4.4–6.5%
Groen 6.1% 5.4% 4.7–5.9% 4.5–6.0% 4.4–6.1% 4.1–6.1%
Ecolo 6.1% 5.0% 4.2–4.5% 4.1–4.5% 4.1–4.5% 3.9–4.5%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3.3% 4.6% 4.0–5.1% 3.8–5.2% 3.7–5.2% 3.4–5.3%
Les Engagés 3.7% 3.3% 2.6–2.9% 2.6–2.9% 2.5–2.9% 2.4–2.9%
DéFI 2.2% 2.4% 1.9–2.1% 1.8–2.1% 1.8–2.1% 1.7–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 18 25 22–26 21–27 21–28 21–29
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 25 20 19–23 19–24 18–24 17–25
Vooruit 9 15 13–16 12–17 12–17 11–18
Parti Socialiste 20 19 17–20 17–20 16–21 16–21
Mouvement Réformateur 14 16 14–18 14–18 14–18 13–19
Parti du Travail de Belgique 9 12 11–13 11–14 11–14 10–15
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 12 8 6–10 5–10 5–10 5–10
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 12 7 6–9 6–10 6–10 4–10
Groen 8 7 5–9 5–9 5–9 5–9
Ecolo 13 9 9–10 8–11 8–11 8–12
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3 5 4–7 4–8 3–8 3–8
Les Engagés 5 5 5 4–5 4–5 4–6
DéFI 2 2 1–4 1–4 1–4 1–4

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.3% 99.9%  
21 5% 99.6%  
22 7% 95%  
23 17% 88%  
24 18% 71%  
25 39% 53% Median
26 7% 14%  
27 4% 7%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.7% 0.8%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.8% 99.9%  
18 4% 99.0%  
19 8% 95%  
20 43% 87% Median
21 20% 44%  
22 10% 24%  
23 8% 14%  
24 4% 7%  
25 2% 2% Last Result
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 1.2% 100%  
12 7% 98.8%  
13 8% 92%  
14 19% 84%  
15 48% 65% Median
16 9% 17%  
17 6% 7%  
18 1.1% 1.5%  
19 0.4% 0.4%  
20 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 3% 99.7%  
17 15% 96%  
18 31% 82%  
19 36% 51% Median
20 10% 15% Last Result
21 5% 5%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 1.5% 100%  
14 16% 98% Last Result
15 31% 82%  
16 21% 51% Median
17 17% 30%  
18 12% 13%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0% 0%  

Parti du Travail de Belgique

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100% Last Result
10 2% 99.9%  
11 18% 98%  
12 49% 80% Median
13 24% 30%  
14 4% 6%  
15 1.1% 2%  
16 0.4% 0.5%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 6% 100%  
6 25% 94%  
7 12% 70%  
8 25% 57% Median
9 14% 32%  
10 18% 18%  
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.5% 100%  
5 1.3% 99.5%  
6 28% 98%  
7 29% 70% Median
8 19% 41%  
9 15% 22%  
10 7% 7%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 0.2% 99.8%  
5 19% 99.6%  
6 16% 81%  
7 41% 65% Median
8 10% 23% Last Result
9 13% 13%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100%  
7 0.3% 99.9%  
8 8% 99.7%  
9 66% 92% Median
10 20% 26%  
11 5% 6%  
12 0.7% 0.7%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.1% 99.9%  
3 3% 99.8% Last Result
4 13% 97%  
5 54% 84% Median
6 11% 30%  
7 11% 19%  
8 8% 8%  
9 0% 0%  

Les Engagés

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100%  
4 9% 99.9%  
5 89% 91% Last Result, Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0.2% 0.3%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 18% 100%  
2 42% 82% Last Result, Median
3 20% 40%  
4 20% 20%  
5 0.3% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo – Les Engagés 93 85 100% 82–88 81–89 80–89 79–91
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo 88 80 97% 77–83 76–84 75–84 74–86
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Les Engagés 79 79 94% 76–83 75–83 75–84 73–86
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 80 77 75% 74–80 73–81 73–82 71–83
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo 76 72 7% 69–75 69–76 68–77 66–78
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Groen – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Les Engagés 67 72 5% 69–75 68–75 67–76 65–78
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 72 69 0.2% 66–72 65–73 64–73 63–75
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Groen – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België 62 67 0% 64–70 63–71 62–71 61–73
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Ecolo – Les Engagés 67 62 0% 59–65 58–66 57–66 56–68
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 68 56 0% 54–60 53–61 52–61 51–63
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 55 56 0% 54–59 53–60 52–60 51–62
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 63 54 0% 52–57 51–58 50–59 49–60
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 63 51 0% 49–55 48–56 47–56 46–58
Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo – Les Engagés 64 52 0% 49–55 48–56 47–56 46–58
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 46 46 0% 43–49 42–49 42–50 40–51
Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 43 36 0% 33–39 32–40 32–40 30–42

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.3% 99.9%  
79 0.8% 99.6%  
80 2% 98.8%  
81 4% 97%  
82 7% 93%  
83 10% 86%  
84 15% 76%  
85 18% 61%  
86 17% 42% Median
87 13% 25%  
88 7% 13%  
89 3% 5%  
90 1.3% 2%  
91 0.4% 0.6%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.3% 99.9%  
74 0.8% 99.6%  
75 2% 98.9%  
76 4% 97% Majority
77 6% 93%  
78 10% 87%  
79 15% 77%  
80 18% 62%  
81 17% 44% Median
82 13% 26%  
83 8% 13%  
84 4% 6%  
85 1.4% 2%  
86 0.5% 0.6%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.6% 99.7%  
74 2% 99.1%  
75 3% 98%  
76 6% 94% Majority
77 10% 88%  
78 14% 78%  
79 16% 64% Last Result
80 16% 48% Median
81 13% 33%  
82 9% 20%  
83 6% 10%  
84 3% 5%  
85 1.2% 2%  
86 0.4% 0.6%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.5% 99.8%  
72 1.4% 99.3%  
73 3% 98%  
74 7% 94%  
75 12% 87%  
76 17% 75% Majority
77 18% 58% Median
78 15% 40%  
79 11% 25%  
80 7% 14% Last Result
81 4% 7%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.7% 0.9%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.4% 99.8%  
67 1.2% 99.4%  
68 3% 98%  
69 5% 95%  
70 10% 90%  
71 15% 80%  
72 18% 65%  
73 17% 47% Median
74 14% 30%  
75 9% 17%  
76 5% 7% Last Result, Majority
77 2% 3%  
78 0.6% 0.8%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Groen – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.4% 99.8%  
66 1.0% 99.5%  
67 2% 98.5% Last Result
68 5% 96%  
69 9% 91%  
70 13% 83%  
71 16% 70%  
72 17% 53% Median
73 15% 36%  
74 10% 21%  
75 6% 11%  
76 3% 5% Majority
77 1.2% 2%  
78 0.5% 0.7%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.7% 99.7%  
64 2% 99.0%  
65 4% 97%  
66 7% 93%  
67 11% 86%  
68 16% 75%  
69 18% 59%  
70 16% 40% Median
71 11% 24%  
72 7% 12% Last Result
73 3% 6%  
74 2% 2%  
75 0.6% 0.7%  
76 0.1% 0.2% Majority
77 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Groen – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 0.9% 99.5%  
62 2% 98.6% Last Result
63 5% 96%  
64 8% 92%  
65 13% 83%  
66 16% 71%  
67 17% 54% Median
68 15% 37%  
69 11% 22%  
70 6% 11%  
71 3% 5%  
72 1.3% 2%  
73 0.5% 0.7%  
74 0.2% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Ecolo – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 0.9% 99.6%  
57 2% 98.6%  
58 5% 96%  
59 8% 92%  
60 12% 83%  
61 15% 71%  
62 16% 56%  
63 15% 40% Median
64 12% 25%  
65 8% 14%  
66 4% 6%  
67 2% 2% Last Result
68 0.5% 0.6%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 1.0% 99.6%  
52 3% 98.6%  
53 6% 96%  
54 10% 90%  
55 15% 80%  
56 17% 66% Median
57 15% 49%  
58 13% 34%  
59 9% 20%  
60 6% 11%  
61 3% 6%  
62 2% 2%  
63 0.6% 0.8%  
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.2% 100%  
51 0.8% 99.7%  
52 2% 98.9%  
53 5% 97%  
54 10% 91%  
55 16% 81% Last Result
56 19% 66%  
57 19% 46% Median
58 14% 27%  
59 8% 13%  
60 4% 5%  
61 1.3% 2%  
62 0.4% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.2% 100%  
49 0.9% 99.8%  
50 3% 98.9%  
51 6% 96%  
52 10% 90%  
53 16% 80%  
54 19% 64%  
55 18% 45% Median
56 13% 27%  
57 7% 14%  
58 4% 7%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.8% 1.0%  
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 0.9% 99.7%  
47 3% 98.8%  
48 5% 96%  
49 10% 91%  
50 15% 81%  
51 17% 67% Median
52 16% 50%  
53 13% 34%  
54 10% 21%  
55 6% 11%  
56 3% 6%  
57 2% 2%  
58 0.6% 0.9%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo – Les Engagés

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.8% 99.7%  
47 2% 99.0%  
48 5% 97%  
49 8% 92%  
50 12% 84%  
51 16% 72%  
52 17% 56% Median
53 15% 39%  
54 11% 24%  
55 7% 13%  
56 3% 6%  
57 2% 2%  
58 0.6% 0.8%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.5% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.3%  
42 4% 98%  
43 9% 93%  
44 13% 84%  
45 16% 72%  
46 17% 56% Last Result
47 16% 39% Median
48 12% 23%  
49 7% 11%  
50 3% 4%  
51 1.0% 1.3%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.5% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.4%  
32 4% 98%  
33 8% 93%  
34 13% 85%  
35 18% 72%  
36 17% 54% Median
37 14% 37%  
38 11% 22%  
39 6% 12%  
40 3% 5%  
41 2% 2%  
42 0.6% 0.8%  
43 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
44 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations