Opinion Poll by Kantar for La Libre Belgique and RTBf, 16–29 January 2023

Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 12.0% 15.5% 13.0–14.2% 12.7–14.2% 12.5–14.2% 12.0–14.2%
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 16.0% 13.5% 11.2–12.3% 11.0–12.4% 10.7–12.4% 10.3–12.4%
Vooruit 6.7% 9.4% 8.2–10.3% 7.9–10.5% 7.6–10.6% 7.1–10.7%
Parti Socialiste 9.5% 9.4% 8.0–8.5% 7.8–8.5% 7.7–8.5% 7.4–8.6%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 8.5% 7.6% 5.8–6.6% 5.6–6.6% 5.4–6.7% 5.1–6.7%
Parti du Travail de Belgique 4.8% 7.4% 6.2–6.6% 6.0–6.7% 5.9–6.7% 5.7–6.7%
Mouvement Réformateur 7.6% 7.3% 6.1–6.5% 5.9–6.6% 5.8–6.6% 5.6–6.6%
Groen 6.1% 6.4% 5.4–7.2% 5.1–7.4% 4.9–7.5% 4.5–7.5%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 8.9% 6.0% 4.4–5.1% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.2% 3.8–5.2%
Ecolo 6.1% 5.2% 4.1–4.5% 4.0–4.5% 4.0–4.5% 3.8–4.5%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3.3% 3.5% 2.8–4.1% 2.6–4.3% 2.4–4.4% 2.1–4.4%
Les Engagés 3.7% 3.1% 2.2–2.6% 2.2–2.6% 2.1–2.6% 1.9–2.6%
DéFI 2.2% 2.4% 1.7–2.0% 1.6–2.0% 1.6–2.0% 1.5–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 18 24 21–26 20–27 19–28 18–29
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 25 21 18–23 17–24 16–25 15–26
Vooruit 9 14 11–16 11–16 11–17 10–19
Parti Socialiste 20 19 17–21 17–21 16–21 15–22
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 12 10 9–12 8–13 7–14 6–15
Parti du Travail de Belgique 9 14 12–16 11–17 11–18 10–18
Mouvement Réformateur 14 14 12–16 12–17 12–18 11–18
Groen 8 9 7–10 6–11 5–13 5–13
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 12 8 5–10 5–10 5–10 5–11
Ecolo 13 10 8–11 7–12 7–12 6–13
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3 3 1–5 1–5 1–6 0–8
Les Engagés 5 4 4 4–5 4–6 2–8
DéFI 2 2 1–4 1–4 1–4 1–5

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
19 2% 99.4%  
20 4% 97%  
21 15% 93%  
22 12% 78%  
23 14% 66%  
24 12% 52% Median
25 30% 40%  
26 5% 10%  
27 2% 5%  
28 2% 3%  
29 1.2% 2%  
30 0.4% 0.4%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.8% 100%  
16 2% 99.2%  
17 4% 97%  
18 11% 93%  
19 11% 82%  
20 21% 71%  
21 23% 50% Median
22 13% 27%  
23 7% 14%  
24 4% 7%  
25 3% 4% Last Result
26 0.9% 1.1%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100% Last Result
10 0.9% 99.7%  
11 15% 98.8%  
12 14% 84%  
13 13% 70%  
14 15% 56% Median
15 31% 41%  
16 6% 11%  
17 3% 4%  
18 0.9% 2%  
19 0.5% 0.6%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.8% 99.9%  
16 4% 99.1%  
17 9% 95%  
18 25% 86%  
19 31% 61% Median
20 18% 30% Last Result
21 11% 12%  
22 0.6% 0.8%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.8% 100%  
7 3% 99.2%  
8 4% 96%  
9 9% 93%  
10 54% 84% Median
11 12% 30%  
12 11% 18% Last Result
13 4% 7%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.5% 0.8%  
16 0.3% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  

Parti du Travail de Belgique

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100% Last Result
10 0.9% 99.9%  
11 6% 99.0%  
12 19% 93%  
13 18% 73%  
14 22% 55% Median
15 16% 33%  
16 11% 17%  
17 4% 6%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 2% 99.8%  
12 9% 98%  
13 30% 89%  
14 30% 59% Last Result, Median
15 13% 29%  
16 7% 16%  
17 4% 8%  
18 4% 4%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100%  
5 3% 99.9%  
6 4% 97%  
7 12% 93%  
8 12% 81% Last Result
9 58% 70% Median
10 5% 12%  
11 3% 6%  
12 1.1% 4%  
13 3% 3%  
14 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 14% 99.7%  
6 24% 86%  
7 10% 62%  
8 10% 53% Median
9 17% 42%  
10 23% 25%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 2% 99.8%  
7 6% 98%  
8 8% 92%  
9 19% 84%  
10 35% 65% Median
11 24% 30%  
12 5% 5%  
13 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100%  
1 27% 98.9%  
2 5% 72%  
3 29% 66% Last Result, Median
4 16% 37%  
5 18% 21%  
6 1.1% 3%  
7 1.1% 2%  
8 0.6% 0.6%  
9 0% 0%  

Les Engagés

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0.3% 99.9%  
2 0.5% 99.6%  
3 0.9% 99.1%  
4 91% 98% Median
5 4% 8% Last Result
6 2% 3%  
7 0.7% 1.4%  
8 0.6% 0.7%  
9 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 34% 100%  
2 28% 66% Last Result, Median
3 22% 38%  
4 14% 16%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Groen – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Les Engagés 93 87 100% 83–91 82–92 81–93 79–95
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Groen – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo 88 83 99.1% 79–87 78–88 77–89 75–91
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Groen – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Les Engagés 79 80 89% 75–84 74–85 73–86 71–87
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur 80 77 72% 73–81 72–83 71–83 70–85
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Groen – Ecolo 76 75 47% 71–79 70–80 69–81 67–83
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Groen – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Les Engagés 67 72 11% 68–76 67–77 66–77 64–79
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 72 69 1.4% 65–73 64–74 63–75 61–77
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Groen – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België 62 68 0.4% 64–72 63–73 62–73 60–75
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Groen – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Les Engagés 67 63 0% 59–67 58–68 57–69 55–70
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 68 57 0% 53–60 52–62 51–63 49–65
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur 55 57 0% 53–60 52–61 52–62 50–64
Parti Socialiste – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 63 55 0% 51–59 50–60 50–61 48–62
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Groen – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Les Engagés 64 55 0% 51–58 50–60 49–60 47–62
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 63 53 0% 49–56 48–57 47–58 45–60
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 46 44 0% 41–48 40–49 39–50 38–51
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 43 36 0% 33–40 32–41 31–42 30–43

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Groen – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.5% 99.7%  
80 1.1% 99.2%  
81 2% 98%  
82 4% 96%  
83 6% 92%  
84 8% 87%  
85 10% 79%  
86 12% 69%  
87 12% 57%  
88 12% 45% Median
89 10% 33%  
90 8% 22%  
91 6% 14%  
92 4% 8%  
93 2% 4% Last Result
94 1.1% 2%  
95 0.5% 0.8%  
96 0.2% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Groen – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.5% 99.6%  
76 1.2% 99.1% Majority
77 2% 98%  
78 4% 96%  
79 6% 92%  
80 8% 86%  
81 10% 78%  
82 12% 67%  
83 12% 56%  
84 12% 43% Median
85 10% 32%  
86 8% 21%  
87 6% 13%  
88 4% 8% Last Result
89 2% 4%  
90 1.0% 2%  
91 0.4% 0.7%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Groen – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.4% 99.8%  
72 0.8% 99.4%  
73 2% 98.5%  
74 3% 97%  
75 5% 94%  
76 7% 89% Majority
77 9% 83%  
78 11% 74%  
79 12% 63% Last Result
80 12% 51%  
81 12% 38% Median
82 10% 27%  
83 7% 17%  
84 5% 10%  
85 3% 6%  
86 2% 3%  
87 0.7% 1.0%  
88 0.2% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.3% 99.8%  
70 0.7% 99.5%  
71 2% 98.8%  
72 3% 97%  
73 5% 94%  
74 8% 89%  
75 10% 82%  
76 12% 72% Majority
77 13% 60%  
78 12% 47% Median
79 11% 35%  
80 9% 24% Last Result
81 6% 16%  
82 4% 9%  
83 3% 5%  
84 1.3% 2%  
85 0.7% 1.1%  
86 0.3% 0.5%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.8%  
68 0.8% 99.4%  
69 2% 98.7%  
70 3% 97%  
71 5% 94%  
72 8% 89%  
73 10% 82%  
74 12% 72%  
75 13% 60%  
76 13% 47% Last Result, Median, Majority
77 11% 34%  
78 9% 23%  
79 6% 14%  
80 4% 8%  
81 2% 4%  
82 1.1% 2%  
83 0.4% 0.7%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Groen – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.5% 99.7%  
65 1.1% 99.1%  
66 2% 98%  
67 4% 96% Last Result
68 6% 92%  
69 8% 86%  
70 11% 78%  
71 12% 67%  
72 13% 54%  
73 12% 42% Median
74 10% 29%  
75 8% 19%  
76 6% 11% Majority
77 3% 6%  
78 1.5% 2%  
79 0.6% 1.0%  
80 0.3% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.5% 99.7%  
62 1.2% 99.2%  
63 2% 98%  
64 4% 96%  
65 7% 91%  
66 9% 85%  
67 11% 75%  
68 12% 64%  
69 12% 52% Median
70 11% 39%  
71 10% 28%  
72 7% 18% Last Result
73 5% 11%  
74 3% 6%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.8% 1.4% Majority
77 0.4% 0.6%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Groen – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.3% 99.8%  
60 0.6% 99.6%  
61 1.2% 99.0%  
62 2% 98% Last Result
63 4% 95%  
64 6% 91%  
65 9% 85%  
66 11% 76%  
67 12% 65%  
68 13% 53%  
69 12% 40% Median
70 10% 29%  
71 8% 19%  
72 5% 11%  
73 3% 5%  
74 1.4% 2%  
75 0.6% 1.0%  
76 0.3% 0.4% Majority
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Groen – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.5% 99.7%  
56 1.2% 99.1%  
57 2% 98%  
58 4% 96%  
59 6% 92%  
60 9% 85%  
61 11% 76%  
62 12% 65%  
63 13% 53%  
64 12% 40% Median
65 10% 28%  
66 8% 19%  
67 5% 11% Last Result
68 3% 6%  
69 2% 3%  
70 0.7% 1.2%  
71 0.3% 0.4%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.5% 99.8%  
50 1.1% 99.3%  
51 2% 98%  
52 4% 96%  
53 7% 92%  
54 10% 85%  
55 11% 75%  
56 13% 64%  
57 13% 51% Median
58 12% 38%  
59 9% 26%  
60 7% 16%  
61 4% 10%  
62 3% 5%  
63 1.5% 3%  
64 0.7% 1.3%  
65 0.3% 0.6%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.6% 99.7%  
51 1.4% 99.1%  
52 3% 98%  
53 6% 95%  
54 9% 89%  
55 12% 80% Last Result
56 14% 68%  
57 14% 54% Median
58 13% 40%  
59 11% 27%  
60 7% 17%  
61 5% 10%  
62 3% 5%  
63 1.3% 2%  
64 0.6% 1.1%  
65 0.3% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.5% 99.7%  
49 1.4% 99.2%  
50 3% 98%  
51 6% 95%  
52 9% 89%  
53 11% 80%  
54 12% 69%  
55 13% 57% Median
56 13% 43%  
57 11% 30%  
58 8% 19%  
59 5% 11%  
60 3% 5%  
61 1.4% 3%  
62 0.7% 1.1%  
63 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Groen – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.6% 99.7%  
48 1.3% 99.1%  
49 3% 98%  
50 5% 95%  
51 7% 91%  
52 9% 84%  
53 11% 74%  
54 12% 63%  
55 13% 50% Median
56 12% 38%  
57 10% 26%  
58 7% 17%  
59 5% 10%  
60 3% 5%  
61 1.4% 2%  
62 0.6% 1.0%  
63 0.3% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.5% 99.8%  
46 1.1% 99.3%  
47 2% 98%  
48 4% 96%  
49 7% 91%  
50 10% 85%  
51 12% 75%  
52 13% 63%  
53 14% 50% Median
54 12% 37%  
55 9% 24%  
56 6% 15%  
57 4% 9%  
58 2% 5%  
59 1.3% 2%  
60 0.6% 1.1%  
61 0.3% 0.5%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1% Last Result
64 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 1.0% 99.5%  
39 2% 98.5%  
40 4% 96%  
41 7% 92%  
42 11% 85%  
43 13% 74%  
44 14% 60%  
45 13% 47% Median
46 11% 34% Last Result
47 9% 23%  
48 7% 14%  
49 4% 7%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.6% 0.9%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.9%  
30 0.8% 99.7%  
31 2% 98.9%  
32 6% 97%  
33 9% 91%  
34 11% 82%  
35 12% 71%  
36 13% 59% Median
37 15% 46%  
38 12% 31%  
39 8% 19%  
40 5% 11%  
41 3% 6%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.7% 1.1% Last Result
44 0.2% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations