Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 20–27 March 2023

Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 12.0% 15.5% 14.4–16.2% 14.1–16.4% 13.8–16.5% 13.4–16.6%
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 16.0% 13.4% 12.3–14.1% 12.1–14.2% 11.8–14.3% 11.4–14.4%
Vooruit 6.7% 9.6% 8.7–10.2% 8.4–10.4% 8.3–10.5% 7.9–10.5%
Parti Socialiste 9.5% 9.1% 8.1–8.5% 8.0–8.5% 7.9–8.5% 7.7–8.5%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 8.9% 7.3% 6.5–7.9% 6.3–8.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.8–8.1%
Mouvement Réformateur 7.6% 7.2% 6.2–6.6% 6.2–6.6% 6.1–6.6% 5.9–6.6%
Parti du Travail de Belgique 4.8% 6.9% 5.9–6.3% 5.9–6.3% 5.8–6.3% 5.6–6.3%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 8.5% 5.7% 5.0–6.2% 4.8–6.3% 4.7–6.4% 4.4–6.5%
Ecolo 6.1% 5.1% 4.3–4.6% 4.2–4.6% 4.2–4.6% 4.0–4.6%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3.3% 4.9% 4.3–5.4% 4.1–5.5% 4.0–5.6% 3.7–5.7%
Groen 6.1% 4.6% 4.0–5.1% 3.8–5.2% 3.7–5.2% 3.4–5.3%
Les Engagés 3.7% 3.8% 3.1–3.4% 3.0–3.4% 3.0–3.4% 2.8–3.4%
DéFI 2.2% 2.3% 1.8–2.0% 1.7–2.0% 1.7–2.0% 1.6–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 18 24 22–26 21–26 21–27 20–28
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 25 20 19–22 18–23 18–24 17–25
Vooruit 9 14 12–15 12–16 11–17 11–17
Parti Socialiste 20 19 18–20 17–20 17–20 16–21
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 12 10 10–11 9–11 8–12 7–13
Mouvement Réformateur 14 15 13–15 13–16 13–16 12–17
Parti du Travail de Belgique 9 13 12–14 11–15 11–15 10–16
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 12 7 6–9 6–10 6–10 4–10
Ecolo 13 10 9–11 8–11 8–11 8–13
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3 6 5–8 4–8 4–8 4–8
Groen 8 5 4–7 3–7 3–7 3–9
Les Engagés 5 5 4–7 4–8 4–8 4–9
DéFI 2 2 1–3 1–4 1–4 1–5

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.7% 99.9%  
21 7% 99.2%  
22 16% 92%  
23 18% 76%  
24 21% 58% Median
25 27% 37%  
26 7% 10%  
27 2% 4%  
28 0.7% 1.0%  
29 0.3% 0.4%  
30 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.3% 100%  
17 2% 99.6%  
18 4% 98%  
19 13% 94%  
20 49% 81% Median
21 14% 32%  
22 10% 19%  
23 5% 9%  
24 2% 4%  
25 2% 2% Last Result
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0.1% 100%  
11 3% 99.9%  
12 17% 97%  
13 21% 81%  
14 23% 60% Median
15 29% 36%  
16 4% 7%  
17 3% 3%  
18 0.3% 0.5%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 2% 99.9%  
17 8% 98%  
18 31% 90%  
19 29% 59% Median
20 29% 31% Last Result
21 2% 2%  
22 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.3% 100%  
7 0.5% 99.7%  
8 4% 99.2%  
9 5% 95%  
10 63% 90% Median
11 23% 27%  
12 2% 5% Last Result
13 2% 2%  
14 0.3% 0.4%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 2% 99.8%  
13 9% 98%  
14 38% 89% Last Result
15 43% 51% Median
16 6% 8%  
17 1.3% 2%  
18 0.4% 0.4%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Parti du Travail de Belgique

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 1.2% 100%  
11 7% 98.8%  
12 40% 92%  
13 36% 52% Median
14 10% 16%  
15 4% 6%  
16 1.3% 2%  
17 0.3% 0.4%  
18 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.5% 100%  
5 2% 99.5%  
6 33% 98%  
7 25% 64% Median
8 18% 39%  
9 16% 22%  
10 5% 5%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.3% 100%  
8 5% 99.7%  
9 30% 94%  
10 51% 65% Median
11 11% 14%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
14 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.4% 100% Last Result
4 5% 99.6%  
5 37% 95%  
6 11% 58% Median
7 16% 47%  
8 31% 31%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 9% 100%  
4 6% 91%  
5 55% 85% Median
6 17% 30%  
7 11% 13%  
8 1.0% 2% Last Result
9 0.7% 0.7%  
10 0% 0%  

Les Engagés

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 24% 100%  
5 44% 76% Last Result, Median
6 16% 32%  
7 9% 15%  
8 5% 7%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 29% 100%  
2 52% 71% Last Result, Median
3 10% 19%  
4 8% 9%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés 93 85 100% 82–88 81–89 80–89 79–90
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Les Engagés 79 82 99.9% 79–85 79–86 78–86 77–88
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen 88 80 95% 76–83 76–83 75–84 73–85
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 80 75 38% 72–78 71–78 70–79 69–81
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Les Engagés 67 72 5% 69–75 68–76 68–76 66–77
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 72 70 0.7% 67–73 66–74 65–74 64–76
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen 76 69 0.3% 66–72 65–73 65–74 63–75
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen 62 67 0% 64–70 63–71 62–71 60–73
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés 67 63 0% 60–66 60–67 59–67 58–69
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 68 58 0% 55–61 54–61 54–62 52–64
Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 63 56 0% 53–59 53–60 52–60 51–61
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 55 54 0% 52–57 51–58 50–59 49–60
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 63 52 0% 50–55 49–56 49–56 47–58
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés 64 52 0% 50–55 49–56 48–56 47–58
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 46 48 0% 46–51 45–51 44–52 43–54
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 43 37 0% 35–40 34–41 34–42 33–43

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.7% 99.7%  
80 2% 99.1%  
81 4% 97%  
82 8% 93%  
83 12% 85%  
84 15% 73%  
85 17% 58% Median
86 16% 40%  
87 12% 24%  
88 7% 12%  
89 4% 5%  
90 1.3% 2%  
91 0.4% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.4% 99.9% Majority
77 1.1% 99.5%  
78 3% 98%  
79 7% 95% Last Result
80 12% 89%  
81 17% 77%  
82 18% 60% Median
83 16% 41%  
84 12% 26%  
85 8% 14%  
86 4% 6%  
87 2% 2%  
88 0.5% 0.6%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.2% 100%  
73 0.5% 99.8%  
74 1.3% 99.3%  
75 3% 98%  
76 6% 95% Majority
77 9% 90%  
78 13% 80%  
79 15% 68%  
80 16% 52% Median
81 14% 36%  
82 11% 22%  
83 6% 11%  
84 3% 5%  
85 1.2% 2%  
86 0.4% 0.5%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.7% 99.7%  
70 2% 99.1%  
71 4% 97%  
72 8% 93%  
73 13% 85%  
74 16% 72%  
75 17% 56% Median
76 16% 38% Majority
77 11% 23%  
78 7% 11%  
79 3% 5%  
80 1.1% 2% Last Result
81 0.4% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.5% 99.9%  
67 1.5% 99.4% Last Result
68 4% 98%  
69 8% 94%  
70 13% 86%  
71 17% 74%  
72 18% 56% Median
73 15% 38%  
74 11% 23%  
75 7% 12%  
76 3% 5% Majority
77 1.4% 2%  
78 0.4% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.6% 99.8%  
65 2% 99.3%  
66 4% 97%  
67 8% 93%  
68 13% 85%  
69 16% 72%  
70 16% 56% Median
71 14% 40%  
72 11% 26% Last Result
73 8% 14%  
74 4% 7%  
75 2% 2%  
76 0.5% 0.7% Majority
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.5% 99.8%  
64 1.4% 99.2%  
65 3% 98%  
66 6% 95%  
67 10% 89%  
68 14% 79%  
69 16% 65%  
70 16% 49% Median
71 14% 33%  
72 10% 19%  
73 6% 9%  
74 2% 4%  
75 0.9% 1.2%  
76 0.2% 0.3% Last Result, Majority
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.4% 99.9%  
61 1.1% 99.5%  
62 3% 98% Last Result
63 5% 96%  
64 9% 90%  
65 13% 81%  
66 16% 68%  
67 16% 51% Median
68 14% 35%  
69 10% 21%  
70 6% 11%  
71 3% 5%  
72 1.3% 2%  
73 0.4% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.9%  
58 0.9% 99.6%  
59 3% 98.7%  
60 6% 96%  
61 12% 90%  
62 17% 78%  
63 18% 61% Median
64 17% 43%  
65 13% 26%  
66 7% 13%  
67 4% 6% Last Result
68 1.3% 2%  
69 0.4% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100%  
52 0.5% 99.8%  
53 2% 99.3%  
54 4% 98%  
55 10% 93%  
56 15% 83%  
57 17% 68% Median
58 17% 51%  
59 14% 34%  
60 10% 20%  
61 6% 10%  
62 3% 5%  
63 1.3% 2%  
64 0.5% 0.7%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.2% 100%  
51 0.7% 99.8%  
52 3% 99.1%  
53 7% 96%  
54 12% 90%  
55 18% 78%  
56 19% 59% Median
57 16% 40%  
58 12% 25%  
59 8% 13%  
60 4% 5%  
61 1.1% 1.4%  
62 0.3% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
64 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.2% 100%  
49 0.8% 99.7%  
50 3% 98.9%  
51 6% 96%  
52 10% 90%  
53 15% 80%  
54 17% 66%  
55 17% 49% Last Result, Median
56 14% 32%  
57 10% 18%  
58 5% 8%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.6% 0.8%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.5% 99.8%  
48 2% 99.3%  
49 4% 98%  
50 10% 94%  
51 18% 83%  
52 20% 65% Median
53 18% 45%  
54 14% 28%  
55 8% 14%  
56 4% 6%  
57 1.3% 2%  
58 0.4% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.8% 99.7%  
48 2% 98.9%  
49 6% 96%  
50 11% 91%  
51 16% 79%  
52 19% 63% Median
53 17% 45%  
54 13% 28%  
55 8% 14%  
56 4% 6%  
57 2% 2%  
58 0.5% 0.6%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.6% 99.8%  
44 2% 99.2%  
45 6% 97%  
46 11% 91% Last Result
47 17% 80%  
48 20% 63% Median
49 19% 43%  
50 13% 24%  
51 6% 11%  
52 3% 4%  
53 1.1% 2%  
54 0.4% 0.5%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.5%  
34 6% 98%  
35 14% 92%  
36 18% 79%  
37 17% 61% Median
38 16% 44%  
39 13% 28%  
40 8% 15%  
41 4% 7%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.7% 0.9% Last Result
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations