Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 29 May–6 June 2023

Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 12.0% 14.3% 12.5–13.3% 12.3–13.4% 12.1–13.4% 11.8–13.4%
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 16.0% 13.7% 12.0–12.8% 11.8–12.8% 11.6–12.8% 11.2–12.8%
Vooruit 6.7% 10.4% 9.5–11.1% 9.2–11.2% 9.0–11.3% 8.6–11.4%
Parti Socialiste 9.5% 9.3% 8.3–8.7% 8.2–8.7% 8.1–8.7% 7.9–8.7%
Mouvement Réformateur 7.6% 7.5% 6.6–7.0% 6.5–7.0% 6.4–7.0% 6.3–7.0%
Parti du Travail de Belgique 4.8% 7.1% 6.2–6.6% 6.1–6.6% 6.0–6.6% 5.9–6.6%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 8.9% 6.7% 5.9–7.2% 5.7–7.3% 5.5–7.4% 5.2–7.4%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3.3% 6.4% 5.6–6.9% 5.4–7.1% 5.3–7.1% 5.0–7.2%
Ecolo 6.1% 5.3% 4.5–4.8% 4.4–4.8% 4.3–4.8% 4.2–4.8%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 8.5% 5.3% 4.5–5.6% 4.3–5.7% 4.1–5.8% 3.9–5.8%
Groen 6.1% 4.7% 4.1–5.2% 3.9–5.3% 3.8–5.4% 3.5–5.4%
Les Engagés 3.7% 3.5% 2.8–3.1% 2.8–3.1% 2.7–3.1% 2.6–3.1%
DéFI 2.2% 1.8% 1.4–1.5% 1.3–1.5% 1.3–1.5% 1.2–1.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 18 21 20–23 19–24 19–24 18–25
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 25 20 19–22 19–23 18–24 17–25
Vooruit 9 15 14–17 13–17 13–18 12–19
Parti Socialiste 20 19 18–21 17–21 17–21 16–21
Mouvement Réformateur 14 15 14–16 13–17 13–18 13–19
Parti du Travail de Belgique 9 13 12–15 12–15 11–16 11–17
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 12 10 8–10 7–10 6–11 6–11
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3 8 8–9 8–10 8–10 6–11
Ecolo 13 10 9–11 9–11 9–12 8–12
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 12 6 5–8 4–8 4–9 3–9
Groen 8 5 5–7 3–7 3–8 3–9
Les Engagés 5 4 4–5 4–6 4–6 4–8
DéFI 2 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 0.7% 99.8% Last Result
19 6% 99.1%  
20 14% 93%  
21 41% 79% Median
22 24% 39%  
23 8% 15%  
24 5% 7%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.3% 0.3%  
27 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 0.8% 99.8%  
18 3% 99.0%  
19 14% 96%  
20 39% 82% Median
21 18% 43%  
22 16% 25%  
23 5% 9%  
24 3% 4%  
25 0.9% 1.0% Last Result
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0.2% 100%  
12 2% 99.8%  
13 4% 98%  
14 8% 93%  
15 40% 85% Median
16 22% 45%  
17 19% 23%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0.7% 0.8%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.7% 100%  
17 5% 99.3%  
18 23% 94%  
19 30% 72% Median
20 29% 42% Last Result
21 13% 13%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 6% 99.7%  
14 30% 94% Last Result
15 41% 64% Median
16 15% 23%  
17 5% 8%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.6% 0.6%  
20 0% 0%  

Parti du Travail de Belgique

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0.1% 100%  
11 3% 99.9%  
12 36% 97%  
13 32% 61% Median
14 17% 29%  
15 8% 13%  
16 4% 5%  
17 0.8% 0.8%  
18 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.5% 100%  
6 3% 99.5%  
7 3% 96%  
8 12% 93%  
9 13% 80%  
10 65% 67% Median
11 2% 3%  
12 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 0.3% 100%  
6 0.4% 99.7%  
7 2% 99.3%  
8 59% 98% Median
9 29% 39%  
10 8% 10%  
11 1.3% 2%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 0.9% 99.8%  
9 16% 98.9%  
10 53% 83% Median
11 26% 30%  
12 3% 4%  
13 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
14 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.6% 100%  
4 6% 99.4%  
5 5% 93%  
6 56% 88% Median
7 21% 32%  
8 9% 11%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 6% 100%  
4 3% 94%  
5 55% 91% Median
6 16% 36%  
7 18% 21%  
8 2% 3% Last Result
9 0.9% 0.9%  
10 0% 0%  

Les Engagés

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 66% 100% Median
5 27% 34% Last Result
6 4% 7%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0.5% 0.6%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 80% 100% Median
2 19% 20% Last Result
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Les Engagés 93 86 100% 83–88 82–88 81–89 79–90
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés 79 86 100% 83–88 82–89 81–89 80–90
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen 88 81 98.9% 78–83 77–84 76–85 75–86
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 80 76 69% 74–79 73–80 72–81 71–82
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés 67 76 67% 74–79 73–79 72–80 71–81
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Ecolo – Groen 62 72 3% 69–74 68–75 67–76 66–77
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen 76 72 2% 69–74 68–75 67–75 65–77
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 72 70 0.1% 67–72 66–73 66–73 64–75
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés 67 64 0% 61–67 60–67 60–68 58–69
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 68 56 0% 53–58 52–59 52–60 50–61
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 55 56 0% 53–58 53–59 52–59 51–61
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 63 54 0% 52–56 51–57 50–58 49–59
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 63 51 0% 49–54 48–54 47–55 46–57
Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Les Engagés 64 51 0% 48–53 47–54 46–55 45–56
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 46 49 0% 46–51 45–52 44–52 43–53
Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 43 35 0% 33–37 32–38 31–39 30–40

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.4% 99.8%  
80 1.1% 99.4%  
81 3% 98%  
82 5% 96%  
83 9% 90%  
84 14% 81% Median
85 17% 67%  
86 19% 50%  
87 17% 31%  
88 11% 15%  
89 3% 4%  
90 0.8% 1.1%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
80 0.7% 99.6%  
81 2% 98.9%  
82 4% 97%  
83 8% 93%  
84 13% 85% Median
85 17% 72%  
86 18% 55%  
87 17% 37%  
88 12% 19%  
89 5% 7%  
90 1.4% 2%  
91 0.3% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 0.7% 99.6%  
76 2% 98.9% Majority
77 4% 97%  
78 7% 93%  
79 11% 87%  
80 16% 75% Median
81 18% 60%  
82 18% 42%  
83 14% 24%  
84 7% 10%  
85 2% 3%  
86 0.5% 0.7%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.7% 99.7%  
72 2% 99.0%  
73 4% 97%  
74 9% 93%  
75 15% 84% Median
76 20% 69% Majority
77 20% 49%  
78 14% 30%  
79 8% 15%  
80 4% 7% Last Result
81 2% 3%  
82 0.6% 0.9%  
83 0.2% 0.2%  
84 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.3% 99.9%  
71 0.9% 99.6%  
72 2% 98.7%  
73 5% 96%  
74 9% 91% Median
75 15% 82%  
76 19% 67% Majority
77 20% 48%  
78 16% 28%  
79 8% 12%  
80 3% 4%  
81 0.9% 1.2%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Ecolo – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.6% 99.7%  
67 2% 99.1%  
68 4% 97%  
69 7% 94%  
70 12% 87% Median
71 16% 75%  
72 19% 59%  
73 18% 40%  
74 13% 21%  
75 6% 9%  
76 2% 3% Majority
77 0.6% 0.8%  
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.4% 99.8%  
66 1.0% 99.5%  
67 2% 98%  
68 5% 96%  
69 8% 91%  
70 13% 83% Median
71 17% 70%  
72 20% 54%  
73 18% 34%  
74 10% 16%  
75 4% 6%  
76 1.3% 2% Last Result, Majority
77 0.4% 0.5%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.6% 99.7%  
65 2% 99.1%  
66 4% 98%  
67 7% 94%  
68 13% 86%  
69 18% 74% Median
70 20% 56%  
71 17% 36%  
72 11% 19% Last Result
73 5% 8%  
74 2% 2%  
75 0.5% 0.6%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.5% 99.8%  
59 1.3% 99.3%  
60 3% 98%  
61 6% 95%  
62 10% 89%  
63 15% 79% Median
64 18% 64%  
65 19% 45%  
66 14% 27%  
67 9% 13% Last Result
68 3% 4%  
69 0.6% 0.9%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.5% 99.8%  
51 1.3% 99.3%  
52 3% 98%  
53 7% 95%  
54 15% 87%  
55 22% 72% Median
56 20% 51%  
57 14% 30%  
58 9% 16%  
59 4% 8%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.8% 1.2%  
62 0.3% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.4% 99.9%  
51 1.1% 99.5%  
52 3% 98%  
53 6% 95%  
54 12% 89%  
55 17% 77% Last Result, Median
56 21% 60%  
57 19% 39%  
58 12% 19%  
59 5% 8%  
60 2% 2%  
61 0.5% 0.7%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.8% 99.7%  
50 2% 98.9%  
51 5% 97%  
52 9% 92%  
53 15% 83%  
54 21% 67% Median
55 22% 47%  
56 15% 25%  
57 6% 10%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.7% 0.9%  
60 0.2% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.7% 99.7%  
47 2% 99.0%  
48 4% 97%  
49 10% 93%  
50 19% 83%  
51 24% 65% Median
52 19% 41%  
53 11% 22%  
54 6% 11%  
55 3% 5%  
56 1.2% 2%  
57 0.4% 0.6%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.6% 99.7%  
46 2% 99.1%  
47 4% 97%  
48 8% 93%  
49 13% 85%  
50 18% 72% Median
51 19% 54%  
52 16% 35%  
53 11% 19%  
54 5% 8%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.7% 0.9%  
57 0.2% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.7% 99.7%  
44 2% 99.0%  
45 4% 97%  
46 8% 94% Last Result
47 14% 86%  
48 20% 71% Median
49 21% 52%  
50 16% 31%  
51 9% 14%  
52 4% 6%  
53 1.3% 2%  
54 0.3% 0.3%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 0.8% 99.7%  
31 2% 98.9%  
32 5% 97%  
33 11% 91%  
34 18% 81%  
35 25% 63% Median
36 18% 38%  
37 11% 20%  
38 6% 9%  
39 2% 4%  
40 0.8% 1.2%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations