Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 18–25 September 2023

Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 12.0% 16.2% 14.3–15.2% 14.1–15.2% 13.9–15.2% 13.5–15.2%
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 16.0% 12.7% 11.1–11.9% 10.9–11.9% 10.7–11.9% 10.4–11.9%
Vooruit 6.7% 9.5% 8.6–10.2% 8.4–10.3% 8.2–10.4% 7.8–10.5%
Parti Socialiste 9.5% 8.2% 7.2–7.6% 7.1–7.6% 7.0–7.6% 6.8–7.6%
Mouvement Réformateur 7.6% 7.7% 6.7–7.1% 6.6–7.1% 6.6–7.1% 6.4–7.1%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 8.9% 7.6% 6.3–6.9% 6.1–6.9% 6.0–6.9% 5.7–6.9%
Parti du Travail de Belgique 4.8% 7.2% 6.3–6.7% 6.2–6.7% 6.1–6.7% 5.9–6.7%
Ecolo 6.1% 5.9% 5.1–5.5% 5.1–5.5% 5.0–5.5% 4.8–5.5%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3.3% 5.9% 5.2–6.4% 5.0–6.5% 4.8–6.6% 4.5–6.7%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 8.5% 5.1% 4.1–4.6% 4.0–4.6% 3.9–4.6% 3.6–4.6%
Les Engagés 3.7% 4.7% 3.9–4.3% 3.9–4.3% 3.8–4.3% 3.7–4.3%
Groen 6.1% 4.0% 3.4–4.4% 3.2–4.5% 3.1–4.6% 2.9–4.6%
DéFI 2.2% 1.4% 1.1–1.2% 1.0–1.2% 1.0–1.2% 0.9–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 18 25 23–27 22–28 22–28 21–29
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 25 20 17–21 17–21 17–22 16–23
Vooruit 9 14 12–16 12–16 11–17 11–17
Parti Socialiste 20 16 14–17 14–18 13–18 12–19
Mouvement Réformateur 14 15 14–16 13–17 13–17 12–18
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 12 10 10–12 10–13 10–13 8–14
Parti du Travail de Belgique 9 12 11–14 11–14 11–15 10–16
Ecolo 13 11 9–13 9–13 9–13 9–14
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3 8 7–9 6–9 6–10 5–10
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 12 6 5–7 4–8 4–9 3–9
Les Engagés 5 8 6–9 6–10 6–10 5–10
Groen 8 4 3–5 3–5 3–6 2–7
DéFI 2 1 1 1 1–2 1–2

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 2% 99.9%  
22 7% 98%  
23 9% 91%  
24 20% 82%  
25 28% 61% Median
26 19% 33%  
27 8% 15%  
28 5% 7%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.5% 100%  
16 2% 99.5%  
17 9% 98%  
18 15% 89%  
19 24% 74%  
20 35% 50% Median
21 10% 15%  
22 4% 5%  
23 1.0% 1.3%  
24 0.3% 0.4%  
25 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
26 0% 0%  

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 3% 100%  
12 12% 97%  
13 30% 85%  
14 18% 55% Median
15 20% 36%  
16 13% 17%  
17 3% 3%  
18 0.4% 0.5%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.5% 100%  
13 2% 99.4%  
14 12% 97%  
15 22% 85%  
16 27% 63% Median
17 27% 36%  
18 8% 9%  
19 1.1% 1.2%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Mouvement Réformateur

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.5% 99.9%  
13 9% 99.5%  
14 38% 91% Last Result
15 40% 53% Median
16 8% 13%  
17 4% 6%  
18 1.2% 1.3%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.7% 99.8%  
9 1.4% 99.2%  
10 63% 98% Median
11 23% 35%  
12 6% 12% Last Result
13 4% 6%  
14 0.9% 1.2%  
15 0.3% 0.4%  
16 0% 0%  

Parti du Travail de Belgique

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 2% 100%  
11 17% 98%  
12 37% 81% Median
13 29% 44%  
14 11% 15%  
15 3% 4%  
16 0.9% 1.1%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.4% 100%  
9 16% 99.6%  
10 26% 84%  
11 29% 58% Median
12 19% 29%  
13 9% 10% Last Result
14 2% 2%  
15 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 2% 100%  
6 3% 98%  
7 6% 94%  
8 71% 89% Median
9 14% 18%  
10 4% 4%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.6% 100%  
4 7% 99.3%  
5 9% 93%  
6 44% 83% Median
7 30% 40%  
8 6% 9%  
9 3% 4%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Les Engagés

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 2% 99.9% Last Result
6 9% 98%  
7 15% 89%  
8 27% 73% Median
9 40% 46%  
10 6% 6%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 0.5% 99.7%  
3 42% 99.3%  
4 13% 57% Median
5 40% 44%  
6 2% 4%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0.1% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 97% 99.9% Median
2 3% 3% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés – Groen 93 84 100% 82–87 81–88 80–89 79–90
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Les Engagés – Groen 79 84 100% 81–86 81–87 80–88 79–89
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen 88 76 59% 73–79 72–80 72–81 70–83
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Les Engagés – Groen 67 73 14% 71–76 70–77 69–77 68–78
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 80 70 1.0% 67–73 66–74 65–75 64–76
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 72 69 0.4% 67–72 66–73 65–74 64–75
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen 76 66 0% 63–69 62–70 61–70 60–72
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen 62 65 0% 62–68 62–69 61–70 60–71
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Les Engagés – Groen 67 63 0% 61–66 60–67 59–68 58–69
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 68 59 0% 56–62 55–62 54–63 53–64
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 63 55 0% 53–58 52–59 52–60 50–61
Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés – Groen 64 54 0% 52–57 51–58 50–59 49–60
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 63 51 0% 48–53 47–54 47–55 46–56
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 55 51 0% 48–54 47–55 46–55 45–57
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 46 48 0% 46–51 45–52 45–53 43–54
Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 43 40 0% 37–42 36–43 36–43 34–45

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.3% 99.9%  
79 0.8% 99.6%  
80 2% 98.8%  
81 5% 97%  
82 11% 92%  
83 17% 81%  
84 19% 64% Median
85 17% 45%  
86 13% 28%  
87 8% 15%  
88 4% 7%  
89 2% 3%  
90 0.6% 0.8%  
91 0.2% 0.2%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Les Engagés – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.3% 99.9%  
79 1.1% 99.6% Last Result
80 3% 98.5%  
81 6% 96%  
82 14% 90%  
83 21% 76% Median
84 20% 55%  
85 15% 35%  
86 10% 20%  
87 6% 10%  
88 3% 4%  
89 0.9% 1.3%  
90 0.3% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.4% 99.8%  
71 1.2% 99.4%  
72 3% 98%  
73 7% 95%  
74 12% 87%  
75 16% 75%  
76 16% 59% Median, Majority
77 15% 43%  
78 12% 28%  
79 8% 17%  
80 5% 9%  
81 2% 4%  
82 1.1% 2%  
83 0.4% 0.6%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Les Engagés – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.2% 100% Last Result
68 0.6% 99.8%  
69 2% 99.2%  
70 5% 97%  
71 10% 92%  
72 16% 82%  
73 20% 67% Median
74 19% 46%  
75 13% 27%  
76 8% 14% Majority
77 4% 6%  
78 1.5% 2%  
79 0.4% 0.5%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.7% 99.7%  
65 2% 98.9%  
66 4% 97%  
67 7% 93%  
68 11% 85%  
69 14% 74%  
70 16% 60%  
71 15% 44% Median
72 12% 29%  
73 9% 17%  
74 5% 8%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.7% 1.0% Majority
77 0.2% 0.3%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.3% 99.9%  
64 0.9% 99.6%  
65 2% 98.7%  
66 6% 96%  
67 11% 91%  
68 15% 80%  
69 18% 65% Median
70 17% 47%  
71 13% 31%  
72 9% 18% Last Result
73 5% 9%  
74 2% 4%  
75 1.0% 1.4%  
76 0.3% 0.4% Majority
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.3% 99.9%  
60 0.8% 99.7%  
61 2% 98.8%  
62 5% 97%  
63 10% 91%  
64 14% 82%  
65 16% 68%  
66 16% 52% Median
67 14% 36%  
68 10% 22%  
69 6% 12%  
70 3% 6%  
71 2% 2%  
72 0.6% 0.8%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.9% 99.7%  
61 3% 98.8%  
62 6% 96% Last Result
63 11% 90%  
64 17% 78%  
65 18% 62% Median
66 16% 43%  
67 12% 27%  
68 8% 15%  
69 4% 7%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.7% 1.0%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Les Engagés – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.6% 99.8%  
59 2% 99.2%  
60 4% 97%  
61 10% 93%  
62 18% 83%  
63 20% 65% Median
64 17% 45%  
65 13% 28%  
66 8% 15%  
67 4% 7% Last Result
68 2% 3%  
69 0.7% 1.0%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.7% 99.7%  
54 2% 99.1%  
55 4% 97%  
56 7% 93%  
57 12% 86%  
58 16% 74%  
59 18% 58% Median
60 17% 40%  
61 12% 23%  
62 7% 11%  
63 3% 4%  
64 1.1% 1.4%  
65 0.3% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.5% 99.8%  
51 2% 99.3%  
52 4% 98%  
53 10% 93%  
54 16% 84%  
55 20% 68% Median
56 18% 48%  
57 14% 30%  
58 9% 16%  
59 4% 7%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.7% 0.9%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.8% 99.7%  
50 2% 98.9%  
51 6% 97%  
52 10% 91%  
53 15% 81%  
54 18% 66% Median
55 17% 48%  
56 13% 31%  
57 9% 18%  
58 5% 9%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.9% 1.3%  
61 0.3% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0% Last Result

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.4% 99.9%  
46 1.3% 99.5%  
47 3% 98%  
48 8% 95%  
49 13% 87%  
50 18% 74%  
51 20% 55% Median
52 16% 35%  
53 10% 19%  
54 5% 8%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.8% 1.0%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.2% 100%  
45 0.6% 99.8%  
46 2% 99.2%  
47 5% 97%  
48 9% 93%  
49 13% 84%  
50 16% 71%  
51 17% 54% Median
52 15% 37%  
53 11% 23%  
54 7% 12%  
55 3% 5% Last Result
56 1.3% 2%  
57 0.4% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.5% 99.8%  
44 2% 99.3%  
45 4% 98%  
46 10% 93% Last Result
47 16% 83%  
48 19% 67% Median
49 18% 48%  
50 14% 30%  
51 8% 17%  
52 5% 8%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.9% 1.2%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 1.4% 99.5%  
36 4% 98%  
37 8% 94%  
38 14% 86%  
39 20% 72% Median
40 21% 51%  
41 15% 30%  
42 8% 15%  
43 4% 7% Last Result
44 2% 2%  
45 0.5% 0.6%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations