Opinion Poll by Kantar for La Libre Belgique and RTBf, 10 September–9 October 2023

Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 12.0% 14.8% 12.4–13.5% 12.2–13.5% 11.9–13.6% 11.4–13.6%
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 16.0% 13.0% 10.8–11.8% 10.5–11.8% 10.3–11.8% 9.9–11.9%
Vooruit 6.7% 10.0% 8.8–10.9% 8.4–11.0% 8.2–11.1% 7.7–11.2%
Parti Socialiste 9.5% 9.8% 8.4–9.0% 8.2–9.0% 8.1–9.0% 7.8–9.0%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 8.9% 8.6% 6.9–7.7% 6.7–7.8% 6.5–7.8% 6.1–7.8%
Mouvement Réformateur 7.6% 7.8% 6.4–7.0% 6.3–7.0% 6.2–7.0% 5.9–7.0%
Parti du Travail de Belgique 4.8% 7.1% 5.8–6.3% 5.7–6.3% 5.6–6.3% 5.3–6.4%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3.3% 5.5% 4.6–6.2% 4.4–6.3% 4.2–6.4% 3.8–6.5%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 8.5% 5.1% 3.8–4.4% 3.6–4.4% 3.5–4.5% 3.3–4.5%
Groen 6.1% 5.0% 4.2–5.7% 4.0–5.9% 3.8–5.9% 3.4–6.0%
Ecolo 6.1% 4.9% 3.8–4.2% 3.7–4.3% 3.6–4.3% 3.5–4.3%
Les Engagés 3.7% 3.7% 2.8–3.2% 2.7–3.2% 2.6–3.2% 2.4–3.2%
DéFI 2.2% 2.0% 1.3–1.5% 1.3–1.6% 1.2–1.6% 1.1–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 18 22 20–25 19–25 19–26 17–28
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 25 20 17–22 17–23 16–24 15–25
Vooruit 9 15 12–17 12–17 11–18 11–19
Parti Socialiste 20 20 18–21 17–21 17–22 16–23
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 12 12 10–15 10–15 10–15 9–17
Mouvement Réformateur 14 14 13–17 13–18 12–18 11–19
Parti du Travail de Belgique 9 12 11–15 10–16 10–16 9–18
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3 8 5–8 5–9 5–9 4–10
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 12 6 4–8 4–9 3–9 2–10
Groen 8 6 5–9 4–9 3–9 3–9
Ecolo 13 9 7–10 6–11 6–11 5–12
Les Engagés 5 5 4–7 4–8 4–9 4–9
DéFI 2 1 1–3 1–3 1–3 0–4

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.3% 100%  
17 0.8% 99.7%  
18 1.3% 98.9% Last Result
19 4% 98%  
20 7% 93%  
21 31% 86%  
22 20% 55% Median
23 12% 35%  
24 9% 23%  
25 10% 14%  
26 3% 4%  
27 0.9% 1.4%  
28 0.4% 0.5%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.9% 99.9%  
16 4% 99.1%  
17 9% 95%  
18 13% 86%  
19 13% 73%  
20 22% 60% Median
21 25% 39%  
22 7% 14%  
23 4% 7%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.9% 1.2% Last Result
26 0.3% 0.4%  
27 0% 0%  

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0.1% 100%  
11 4% 99.8%  
12 9% 96%  
13 19% 87%  
14 15% 68%  
15 26% 53% Median
16 14% 27%  
17 8% 13%  
18 3% 5%  
19 1.1% 1.4%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 2% 99.8%  
17 6% 98%  
18 16% 92%  
19 24% 75%  
20 24% 52% Last Result, Median
21 24% 28%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0.7% 0.8%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 0.4% 99.8%  
10 21% 99.5%  
11 20% 78%  
12 11% 58% Last Result, Median
13 24% 47%  
14 11% 23%  
15 10% 13%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.4% 0.6%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.7% 100%  
12 3% 99.3%  
13 13% 96%  
14 34% 84% Last Result, Median
15 23% 50%  
16 11% 27%  
17 8% 16%  
18 6% 9%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Parti du Travail de Belgique

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.7% 100% Last Result
10 5% 99.3%  
11 15% 95%  
12 37% 79% Median
13 14% 42%  
14 14% 28%  
15 8% 15%  
16 5% 7%  
17 1.0% 2%  
18 0.5% 0.5%  
19 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.3% 100% Last Result
4 2% 99.7%  
5 15% 98%  
6 13% 83%  
7 10% 70%  
8 50% 59% Median
9 9% 10%  
10 1.1% 1.4%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.8% 100%  
3 4% 99.2%  
4 14% 95%  
5 8% 81%  
6 47% 72% Median
7 15% 25%  
8 5% 10%  
9 5% 6%  
10 1.1% 1.1%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 4% 100%  
4 4% 96%  
5 32% 91%  
6 17% 59% Median
7 25% 41%  
8 6% 16% Last Result
9 10% 10%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 2% 99.9%  
6 7% 98%  
7 7% 91%  
8 16% 84%  
9 33% 67% Median
10 27% 34%  
11 6% 7%  
12 0.8% 1.0%  
13 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
14 0% 0%  

Les Engagés

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 99.9%  
4 41% 99.9%  
5 34% 59% Last Result, Median
6 10% 25%  
7 7% 14%  
8 5% 8%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 80% 98% Median
2 7% 18% Last Result
3 10% 11%  
4 1.1% 1.2%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo – Les Engagés 93 87 100% 83–91 82–92 81–92 79–94
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo – Les Engagés 79 86 100% 82–90 81–91 80–92 78–94
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo 88 82 98% 78–86 77–87 76–88 74–89
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 80 75 37% 71–78 69–79 69–80 67–82
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo – Les Engagés 67 74 30% 70–78 69–79 68–79 66–81
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 72 72 13% 68–76 67–77 66–78 64–80
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo 76 70 2% 66–73 65–74 64–75 62–77
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo 62 69 1.1% 65–73 64–74 63–75 61–76
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Ecolo – Les Engagés 67 66 0.1% 62–70 61–71 60–72 59–74
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 68 58 0% 54–62 53–63 52–64 50–66
Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 63 57 0% 54–61 53–62 52–63 50–65
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 55 55 0% 51–58 50–59 49–60 48–62
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo – Les Engagés 64 53 0% 49–57 48–58 47–59 45–61
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 63 53 0% 49–56 48–58 47–59 45–60
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 46 51 0% 48–55 47–56 46–57 44–59
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 43 38 0% 34–42 33–43 33–44 31–46

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.4% 99.7%  
80 0.9% 99.3%  
81 2% 98%  
82 3% 96%  
83 5% 93%  
84 8% 88%  
85 10% 80%  
86 13% 70%  
87 14% 57% Median
88 13% 44%  
89 11% 31%  
90 8% 20%  
91 6% 11%  
92 3% 6%  
93 1.5% 2% Last Result
94 0.6% 1.0%  
95 0.3% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100% Majority
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.4% 99.8%  
79 0.8% 99.4% Last Result
80 2% 98.6%  
81 3% 97%  
82 5% 94%  
83 7% 89%  
84 10% 82%  
85 12% 72%  
86 14% 60%  
87 13% 46% Median
88 12% 33%  
89 9% 21%  
90 6% 12%  
91 3% 7%  
92 2% 3%  
93 0.9% 1.5%  
94 0.4% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.5% 99.6%  
75 1.1% 99.1%  
76 2% 98% Majority
77 4% 96%  
78 6% 92%  
79 8% 87%  
80 10% 79%  
81 12% 68%  
82 13% 56% Median
83 12% 43%  
84 11% 30%  
85 8% 20%  
86 6% 12%  
87 3% 6%  
88 2% 3% Last Result
89 0.7% 1.2%  
90 0.3% 0.5%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.3% 99.8%  
67 0.6% 99.6%  
68 1.4% 98.9%  
69 3% 98%  
70 4% 95%  
71 7% 90%  
72 9% 84%  
73 11% 74%  
74 13% 63%  
75 13% 50% Median
76 12% 37% Majority
77 10% 26%  
78 7% 16%  
79 4% 9%  
80 2% 5% Last Result
81 1.2% 2%  
82 0.6% 1.0%  
83 0.2% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.4% 99.8%  
67 0.9% 99.4% Last Result
68 2% 98%  
69 3% 97%  
70 5% 93%  
71 8% 88%  
72 11% 80%  
73 13% 70%  
74 14% 57%  
75 13% 43% Median
76 11% 30% Majority
77 8% 19%  
78 5% 10%  
79 3% 5%  
80 1.3% 2%  
81 0.5% 0.8%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.4% 99.8%  
65 0.9% 99.4%  
66 2% 98.5%  
67 4% 97%  
68 6% 93%  
69 8% 87%  
70 11% 79%  
71 12% 69%  
72 13% 57% Last Result, Median
73 12% 44%  
74 11% 32%  
75 8% 21%  
76 6% 13% Majority
77 3% 7%  
78 2% 4%  
79 1.0% 2%  
80 0.4% 0.7%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.6% 99.6%  
63 1.2% 99.0%  
64 2% 98%  
65 4% 96%  
66 6% 92%  
67 9% 86%  
68 11% 77%  
69 13% 66%  
70 13% 53% Median
71 13% 40%  
72 10% 28%  
73 8% 17%  
74 5% 9%  
75 3% 5%  
76 1.3% 2% Last Result, Majority
77 0.6% 0.9%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.6% 99.7%  
62 1.2% 99.1% Last Result
63 2% 98%  
64 4% 96%  
65 6% 92%  
66 8% 86%  
67 10% 78%  
68 12% 67%  
69 13% 55%  
70 12% 42% Median
71 11% 30%  
72 8% 19%  
73 5% 11%  
74 3% 6%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.7% 1.1% Majority
77 0.3% 0.4%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Ecolo – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.3% 99.8%  
59 0.7% 99.5%  
60 2% 98.8%  
61 3% 97%  
62 5% 94%  
63 7% 90%  
64 10% 82%  
65 12% 72%  
66 13% 60%  
67 13% 47% Last Result, Median
68 11% 34%  
69 9% 23%  
70 6% 14%  
71 4% 7%  
72 2% 4%  
73 1.0% 2%  
74 0.4% 0.6%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.4% 99.7%  
51 1.0% 99.3%  
52 2% 98%  
53 4% 96%  
54 6% 92%  
55 9% 86%  
56 11% 77%  
57 13% 66% Median
58 12% 53%  
59 12% 41%  
60 10% 29%  
61 7% 19%  
62 5% 12%  
63 3% 7%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.9% 2%  
66 0.4% 0.6%  
67 0.2% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
69 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.4% 99.8%  
51 1.0% 99.4%  
52 2% 98%  
53 4% 96%  
54 7% 92%  
55 10% 85%  
56 12% 76%  
57 13% 63% Median
58 13% 50%  
59 12% 36%  
60 10% 24%  
61 7% 15%  
62 4% 8%  
63 2% 4% Last Result
64 1.2% 2%  
65 0.5% 0.8%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 0.7% 99.6%  
49 2% 98.9%  
50 3% 97%  
51 6% 94%  
52 9% 88%  
53 12% 79%  
54 14% 66%  
55 14% 52% Last Result, Median
56 13% 39%  
57 10% 26%  
58 7% 16%  
59 4% 9%  
60 2% 4%  
61 1.2% 2%  
62 0.5% 0.9%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.4% 99.8%  
46 1.0% 99.3%  
47 2% 98%  
48 3% 96%  
49 5% 93%  
50 8% 88%  
51 10% 80%  
52 12% 69% Median
53 13% 57%  
54 13% 44%  
55 11% 31%  
56 8% 20%  
57 6% 12%  
58 3% 6%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.8% 1.4%  
61 0.4% 0.6%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0% Last Result

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.4% 99.8%  
46 0.8% 99.5%  
47 2% 98.6%  
48 4% 97%  
49 6% 93%  
50 9% 87%  
51 12% 78%  
52 14% 66% Median
53 13% 52%  
54 12% 38%  
55 10% 27%  
56 7% 17%  
57 4% 10%  
58 3% 5%  
59 1.4% 3%  
60 0.7% 1.1%  
61 0.3% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.9%  
45 1.0% 99.5%  
46 2% 98.5% Last Result
47 5% 96%  
48 8% 91%  
49 11% 84%  
50 13% 73%  
51 14% 60%  
52 13% 47% Median
53 12% 33%  
54 9% 22%  
55 6% 12%  
56 3% 7%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.8% 1.4%  
59 0.4% 0.6%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.5% 99.8%  
32 1.4% 99.3%  
33 3% 98%  
34 6% 95%  
35 9% 89%  
36 11% 80%  
37 13% 69% Median
38 14% 57%  
39 13% 43%  
40 10% 30%  
41 8% 20%  
42 5% 12%  
43 3% 6% Last Result
44 2% 3%  
45 0.8% 1.3%  
46 0.3% 0.5%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations