Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 4–11 December 2023

Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 12.0% 15.5% 14.4–16.3% 14.1–16.5% 13.9–16.5% 13.4–16.6%
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 16.0% 13.6% 12.6–14.3% 12.3–14.5% 12.1–14.6% 11.6–14.6%
Parti Socialiste 9.5% 8.7% 7.7–8.1% 7.6–8.1% 7.5–8.1% 7.3–8.1%
Vooruit 6.7% 8.5% 7.7–9.2% 7.5–9.3% 7.3–9.4% 6.9–9.4%
Mouvement Réformateur 7.6% 7.7% 6.7–7.1% 6.6–7.1% 6.5–7.1% 6.4–7.1%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 8.9% 7.2% 6.4–7.8% 6.2–7.9% 6.1–8.0% 5.7–8.1%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3.3% 6.0% 5.3–6.6% 5.1–6.7% 4.9–6.7% 4.6–6.8%
Parti du Travail de Belgique 4.8% 5.9% 5.1–5.4% 5.0–5.4% 4.9–5.4% 4.8–5.4%
Groen 6.1% 5.7% 5.0–6.2% 4.8–6.3% 4.7–6.4% 4.4–6.5%
Ecolo 6.1% 5.7% 4.9–5.2% 4.8–5.2% 4.7–5.2% 4.6–5.2%
Les Engagés 3.7% 4.8% 4.1–4.4% 4.0–4.4% 3.9–4.4% 3.8–4.4%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 8.5% 4.4% 3.8–4.9% 3.6–5.0% 3.5–5.0% 3.2–5.1%
DéFI 2.2% 2.0% 1.5–1.7% 1.5–1.7% 1.4–1.7% 1.4–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 18 24 22–25 21–26 21–26 20–28
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 25 20 19–23 18–23 18–24 17–25
Parti Socialiste 20 17 16–19 16–20 15–20 14–20
Vooruit 9 12 11–14 11–14 10–15 9–15
Mouvement Réformateur 14 15 14–17 13–17 13–17 13–18
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 12 10 10–11 9–11 8–12 7–13
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3 8 7–9 7–9 6–9 5–10
Parti du Travail de Belgique 9 11 10–12 10–12 9–12 8–13
Groen 8 7 6–9 5–9 5–9 5–9
Ecolo 13 10 9–12 9–12 9–13 8–13
Les Engagés 5 8 7–9 6–10 6–10 6–11
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 12 4 3–6 3–6 3–6 2–7
DéFI 2 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0.2% 100%  
20 0.4% 99.8%  
21 7% 99.4%  
22 11% 92%  
23 19% 81%  
24 12% 62% Median
25 44% 50%  
26 4% 6%  
27 1.5% 2%  
28 0.7% 0.8%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.7% 99.9%  
18 5% 99.2%  
19 7% 94%  
20 38% 87% Median
21 19% 49%  
22 18% 29%  
23 8% 11%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.8% 1.0% Last Result
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.7% 99.9%  
15 2% 99.2%  
16 17% 97%  
17 50% 80% Median
18 13% 30%  
19 10% 16%  
20 6% 7% Last Result
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.6% 99.9% Last Result
10 2% 99.3%  
11 40% 97%  
12 30% 57% Median
13 16% 27%  
14 7% 11%  
15 4% 4%  
16 0.4% 0.4%  
17 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 8% 99.9%  
14 37% 92% Last Result
15 27% 55% Median
16 17% 27%  
17 9% 10%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.4% 100%  
7 0.7% 99.6%  
8 2% 98.9%  
9 6% 97%  
10 75% 91% Median
11 12% 16%  
12 3% 5% Last Result
13 1.0% 1.4%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 2% 100%  
6 2% 98%  
7 9% 96%  
8 68% 87% Median
9 18% 19%  
10 1.4% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Parti du Travail de Belgique

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 1.1% 99.9%  
9 3% 98.8% Last Result
10 29% 96%  
11 46% 67% Median
12 19% 21%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 8% 99.9%  
6 9% 92%  
7 35% 83% Median
8 14% 47% Last Result
9 33% 34%  
10 0.2% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 2% 100%  
9 32% 98%  
10 24% 65% Median
11 21% 42%  
12 17% 21%  
13 4% 4% Last Result
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Les Engagés

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.4% 100% Last Result
6 7% 99.6%  
7 12% 92%  
8 31% 81% Median
9 40% 50%  
10 8% 10%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 1.0% 100%  
3 18% 99.0%  
4 32% 81% Median
5 11% 50%  
6 37% 39%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0.2% 0.3%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 63% 100% Median
2 36% 37% Last Result
3 0.9% 1.2%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 93 85 100% 83–88 82–89 81–89 80–90
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés 79 84 100% 82–87 81–88 80–88 79–90
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 88 77 71% 74–80 73–81 72–81 71–83
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés 67 74 29% 72–77 71–78 70–78 69–79
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 80 69 0.6% 67–73 66–73 65–74 64–76
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 72 67 0% 64–70 64–71 63–72 62–73
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 76 67 0% 64–70 63–70 62–71 61–73
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés 67 66 0% 63–68 62–69 62–70 60–71
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Groen 62 66 0% 63–69 62–70 62–70 61–72
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 68 59 0% 56–62 55–62 54–63 53–65
Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 64 56 0% 53–58 52–59 52–60 50–61
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 63 55 0% 53–58 52–58 52–59 50–60
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 63 50 0% 48–53 47–54 47–55 46–56
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 55 49 0% 46–52 45–52 45–53 44–54
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 46 48 0% 45–50 45–51 44–52 43–53
Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 43 38 0% 35–41 35–41 34–42 33–43

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.2% 100%  
80 0.8% 99.8%  
81 3% 99.0%  
82 6% 96%  
83 11% 90% Median
84 18% 80%  
85 22% 62%  
86 17% 40%  
87 11% 23%  
88 7% 12%  
89 4% 5%  
90 1.2% 2%  
91 0.3% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.7% 99.8% Last Result
80 2% 99.1%  
81 5% 97%  
82 10% 92%  
83 15% 82% Median
84 18% 66%  
85 18% 48%  
86 15% 31%  
87 9% 16%  
88 5% 7%  
89 2% 2%  
90 0.5% 0.7%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.2% 100%  
71 0.7% 99.8%  
72 2% 99.1%  
73 5% 97%  
74 8% 93%  
75 13% 84% Median
76 17% 71% Majority
77 17% 54%  
78 14% 36%  
79 10% 22%  
80 6% 12%  
81 3% 6%  
82 1.5% 2%  
83 0.6% 0.7%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0.2% 100%  
69 0.7% 99.8%  
70 2% 99.1%  
71 5% 97%  
72 10% 91%  
73 16% 81% Median
74 19% 66%  
75 18% 47%  
76 15% 29% Majority
77 9% 14%  
78 4% 5%  
79 1.3% 2%  
80 0.4% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.7% 99.7%  
65 2% 99.0%  
66 6% 97%  
67 10% 91%  
68 15% 81% Median
69 17% 67%  
70 17% 50%  
71 14% 33%  
72 9% 20%  
73 6% 10%  
74 3% 5%  
75 1.2% 2%  
76 0.4% 0.6% Majority
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.2% 100%  
62 0.7% 99.8%  
63 3% 99.1%  
64 7% 96%  
65 11% 90%  
66 16% 78% Median
67 18% 62%  
68 16% 44%  
69 13% 28%  
70 8% 15%  
71 4% 7%  
72 2% 3% Last Result
73 0.6% 0.9%  
74 0.2% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.2% 100%  
61 0.7% 99.8%  
62 2% 99.0%  
63 5% 97%  
64 8% 92%  
65 14% 84% Median
66 18% 70%  
67 18% 52%  
68 14% 35%  
69 10% 20%  
70 6% 10%  
71 3% 5%  
72 1.2% 2%  
73 0.4% 0.6%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.5% 99.9%  
61 2% 99.4%  
62 5% 98%  
63 10% 92%  
64 15% 83% Median
65 18% 68%  
66 17% 50%  
67 14% 33% Last Result
68 10% 18%  
69 5% 8%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.8% 1.0%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 1.3% 99.6%  
62 4% 98% Last Result
63 8% 95%  
64 12% 87%  
65 16% 75% Median
66 18% 58%  
67 16% 41%  
68 12% 24%  
69 7% 13%  
70 3% 5%  
71 1.3% 2%  
72 0.4% 0.6%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.5% 99.8%  
54 2% 99.3%  
55 5% 97%  
56 9% 93%  
57 14% 84% Median
58 17% 70%  
59 17% 53%  
60 15% 36%  
61 11% 21%  
62 6% 11%  
63 3% 5%  
64 1.2% 2%  
65 0.4% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0% Last Result

Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.5% 99.9%  
51 2% 99.4%  
52 4% 98%  
53 8% 94%  
54 12% 86% Median
55 15% 74%  
56 20% 59%  
57 19% 39%  
58 12% 21%  
59 6% 9%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.8% 1.0%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.4% 99.9%  
51 2% 99.4%  
52 6% 98%  
53 11% 92%  
54 15% 81% Median
55 20% 65%  
56 18% 45%  
57 14% 27%  
58 9% 14%  
59 4% 5%  
60 1.0% 1.3%  
61 0.3% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.4% 99.9%  
46 2% 99.5%  
47 6% 98%  
48 12% 92%  
49 15% 81% Median
50 19% 66%  
51 17% 46%  
52 13% 29%  
53 8% 16%  
54 4% 7%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.7% 1.0%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 1.1% 99.7%  
45 4% 98.6%  
46 9% 95%  
47 13% 86%  
48 18% 73% Median
49 18% 55%  
50 15% 37%  
51 11% 21%  
52 6% 10%  
53 3% 4%  
54 1.1% 2%  
55 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.9% 99.7%  
44 3% 98.8%  
45 7% 96%  
46 16% 89% Last Result
47 21% 72% Median
48 19% 51%  
49 15% 32%  
50 9% 17%  
51 5% 8%  
52 2% 3%  
53 0.8% 1.0%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.8% 99.8%  
34 3% 99.0%  
35 7% 96%  
36 13% 89%  
37 17% 77% Median
38 19% 60%  
39 17% 40%  
40 12% 23%  
41 7% 11%  
42 3% 3%  
43 0.6% 0.8% Last Result
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations