Opinion Poll by Kantar for Knack and Le Vif, 22 January–8 February 2024

Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 12.0% 16.2% 14.4–15.2% 14.2–15.3% 14.0–15.3% 13.6–15.3%
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 16.0% 13.0% 11.4–12.2% 11.2–12.2% 11.1–12.2% 10.7–12.2%
Vooruit 6.7% 9.1% 8.2–9.7% 8.0–9.8% 7.8–9.9% 7.5–10.0%
Parti Socialiste 9.5% 8.6% 7.6–8.0% 7.5–8.0% 7.4–8.0% 7.2–8.0%
Mouvement Réformateur 7.6% 7.5% 6.5–6.9% 6.4–6.9% 6.3–6.9% 6.2–6.9%
Parti du Travail de Belgique 4.8% 7.2% 6.3–6.6% 6.2–6.7% 6.1–6.7% 6.0–6.7%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3.3% 6.7% 6.0–7.3% 5.8–7.4% 5.6–7.5% 5.3–7.5%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 8.9% 6.6% 5.4–5.9% 5.3–6.0% 5.1–6.0% 4.9–6.0%
Ecolo 6.1% 5.7% 4.9–5.2% 4.8–5.2% 4.7–5.2% 4.6–5.2%
Groen 6.1% 5.4% 4.7–5.9% 4.6–6.0% 4.4–6.1% 4.1–6.1%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 8.5% 5.1% 4.0–4.5% 3.9–4.5% 3.8–4.5% 3.6–4.6%
Les Engagés 3.7% 4.4% 3.7–4.0% 3.6–4.0% 3.6–4.0% 3.4–4.0%
DéFI 2.2% 1.8% 1.4–1.6% 1.4–1.6% 1.3–1.6% 1.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 18 25 22–26 22–27 21–28 21–29
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 25 19 18–21 17–22 17–22 15–23
Vooruit 9 13 11–15 11–15 11–16 11–16
Parti Socialiste 20 17 16–18 15–19 15–19 14–20
Mouvement Réformateur 14 14 13–16 13–16 13–17 12–17
Parti du Travail de Belgique 9 13 12–14 12–14 11–15 11–16
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3 9 8–10 8–10 8–11 7–13
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 12 10 7–10 6–10 6–10 5–11
Ecolo 13 10 9–12 9–12 9–12 9–13
Groen 8 7 5–9 5–9 5–9 5–9
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 12 6 4–7 4–7 3–8 3–9
Les Engagés 5 7 5–9 5–9 4–9 4–10
DéFI 2 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–3

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0% 100%  
20 0.2% 100%  
21 3% 99.8%  
22 7% 97%  
23 11% 90%  
24 15% 79%  
25 29% 64% Median
26 25% 35%  
27 6% 9%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.6% 0.8%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.5% 100%  
16 1.3% 99.5%  
17 5% 98%  
18 28% 93%  
19 22% 65% Median
20 24% 43%  
21 12% 18%  
22 5% 7%  
23 1.1% 1.3%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0.1% 100%  
11 17% 99.9%  
12 31% 82%  
13 22% 51% Median
14 14% 29%  
15 12% 15%  
16 3% 3%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 1.0% 99.8%  
15 8% 98.8%  
16 27% 91%  
17 38% 64% Median
18 20% 26%  
19 4% 5%  
20 0.8% 0.8% Last Result
21 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 1.1% 99.9%  
13 12% 98.8%  
14 58% 87% Last Result, Median
15 18% 28%  
16 7% 10%  
17 3% 3%  
18 0.3% 0.4%  
19 0% 0%  

Parti du Travail de Belgique

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0.2% 100%  
11 4% 99.8%  
12 28% 96%  
13 48% 68% Median
14 14% 19%  
15 4% 5%  
16 0.9% 1.2%  
17 0.3% 0.3%  
18 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 1.0% 99.9%  
8 42% 98.8%  
9 38% 56% Median
10 16% 19%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.5% 1.0%  
13 0.5% 0.5%  
14 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.8% 100%  
6 6% 99.2%  
7 5% 93%  
8 8% 88%  
9 17% 80%  
10 62% 64% Median
11 1.2% 1.3%  
12 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
13 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 27% 99.8%  
10 38% 73% Median
11 24% 35%  
12 8% 10%  
13 2% 2% Last Result
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 0.2% 99.8%  
5 19% 99.6%  
6 11% 81%  
7 45% 70% Median
8 12% 25% Last Result
9 13% 13%  
10 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 3% 100%  
4 12% 97%  
5 6% 85%  
6 61% 80% Median
7 16% 19%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.8% 0.9%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Les Engagés

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 3% 100%  
5 13% 97% Last Result
6 20% 84%  
7 18% 64% Median
8 25% 46%  
9 18% 20%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 93% 99.8% Median
2 6% 7% Last Result
3 0.6% 0.6%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés 79 85 100% 82–88 81–88 81–89 79–90
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 93 83 100% 81–86 80–87 79–87 77–88
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 88 76 60% 73–79 72–80 71–81 70–82
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés 67 76 50% 73–78 72–79 72–80 70–81
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 80 69 0.3% 66–72 66–73 65–74 64–75
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Ecolo – Groen 62 68 0.2% 65–71 65–72 64–73 63–75
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 76 67 0% 64–70 63–71 62–72 61–73
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 72 66 0% 63–69 62–70 62–70 60–72
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés 67 63 0% 60–66 59–67 59–67 57–68
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 68 56 0% 53–59 52–59 51–60 49–61
Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 64 54 0% 51–56 50–57 49–57 48–58
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 63 54 0% 51–56 50–56 49–57 47–58
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 55 50 0% 47–53 46–53 46–54 44–55
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 63 49 0% 46–51 45–52 45–53 43–54
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 46 46 0% 43–49 42–50 42–50 40–51
Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 43 37 0% 34–39 33–39 32–40 30–41

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.6% 99.8% Last Result
80 1.5% 99.2%  
81 4% 98%  
82 8% 94%  
83 13% 86%  
84 17% 73%  
85 19% 56%  
86 15% 37% Median
87 11% 21%  
88 7% 10%  
89 3% 4%  
90 0.7% 0.9%  
91 0.2% 0.2%  
92 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100% Majority
77 0.4% 99.9%  
78 1.0% 99.5%  
79 2% 98%  
80 5% 96%  
81 10% 91%  
82 16% 81%  
83 19% 65%  
84 18% 46% Median
85 14% 27%  
86 8% 14%  
87 4% 6%  
88 1.2% 2%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.9%  
70 0.8% 99.6%  
71 2% 98.9%  
72 4% 97%  
73 7% 93%  
74 11% 86%  
75 14% 74%  
76 16% 60% Majority
77 15% 44% Median
78 12% 29%  
79 8% 17%  
80 5% 8%  
81 2% 3%  
82 0.8% 1.0%  
83 0.2% 0.2%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.5% 99.9%  
71 2% 99.3%  
72 5% 98%  
73 10% 93%  
74 15% 83%  
75 18% 68%  
76 18% 50% Median, Majority
77 14% 32%  
78 10% 18%  
79 5% 8%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.7% 1.0%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.3% 99.9%  
64 1.2% 99.5%  
65 3% 98%  
66 8% 95%  
67 13% 87%  
68 17% 74%  
69 17% 57% Median
70 15% 40%  
71 11% 25%  
72 7% 14%  
73 4% 7%  
74 2% 3%  
75 0.8% 1.1%  
76 0.2% 0.3% Majority
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Ecolo – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.2% 100% Last Result
63 0.9% 99.8%  
64 3% 98.8%  
65 7% 96%  
66 11% 89%  
67 15% 78%  
68 16% 64%  
69 16% 47% Median
70 13% 31%  
71 9% 19%  
72 5% 10%  
73 3% 5%  
74 1.2% 2%  
75 0.5% 0.7%  
76 0.2% 0.2% Majority
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.8% 99.7%  
62 2% 98.9%  
63 5% 97%  
64 9% 92%  
65 13% 83%  
66 15% 70%  
67 16% 55% Median
68 14% 39%  
69 11% 25%  
70 7% 14%  
71 4% 7%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.7% 1.0%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.6% 99.8%  
61 1.5% 99.2%  
62 3% 98%  
63 6% 94%  
64 10% 88%  
65 15% 78%  
66 18% 63%  
67 18% 46% Median
68 14% 28%  
69 8% 14%  
70 4% 6%  
71 2% 2%  
72 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.5% 99.8%  
58 1.4% 99.2%  
59 3% 98%  
60 6% 95%  
61 11% 89%  
62 16% 78%  
63 18% 62%  
64 17% 44% Median
65 13% 27%  
66 8% 14%  
67 4% 5% Last Result
68 1.2% 2%  
69 0.3% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.4% 99.8%  
50 1.0% 99.5%  
51 2% 98%  
52 5% 96%  
53 8% 91%  
54 12% 83%  
55 15% 71%  
56 17% 56% Median
57 16% 39%  
58 12% 23%  
59 7% 12%  
60 3% 4%  
61 1.0% 1.4%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0% Last Result

Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Ecolo – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 0.8% 99.6%  
49 2% 98.8%  
50 4% 97%  
51 8% 93%  
52 12% 85%  
53 17% 72%  
54 20% 55% Median
55 19% 34%  
56 10% 16%  
57 4% 6%  
58 1.4% 2%  
59 0.4% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.9%  
48 1.0% 99.5%  
49 2% 98%  
50 5% 96%  
51 9% 91%  
52 13% 82%  
53 18% 69%  
54 21% 52% Median
55 18% 31%  
56 10% 13%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.5% 0.6%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.9%  
45 1.4% 99.5%  
46 4% 98%  
47 8% 94%  
48 14% 87%  
49 18% 73%  
50 19% 54% Median
51 15% 36%  
52 10% 20%  
53 6% 10%  
54 3% 4%  
55 1.1% 1.5% Last Result
56 0.3% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.5% 99.8%  
44 2% 99.3%  
45 4% 98%  
46 8% 93%  
47 13% 85%  
48 20% 72%  
49 18% 53% Median
50 17% 34%  
51 10% 17%  
52 5% 8%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.6% 0.8%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.6% 99.7%  
41 2% 99.1%  
42 3% 98%  
43 7% 94%  
44 11% 88%  
45 15% 77%  
46 18% 61% Last Result
47 17% 43% Median
48 13% 26%  
49 8% 13%  
50 4% 5%  
51 1.3% 2%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.8%  
31 1.1% 99.5%  
32 2% 98%  
33 5% 96%  
34 8% 91%  
35 13% 83%  
36 17% 71%  
37 19% 54% Median
38 18% 35%  
39 13% 17%  
40 3% 4%  
41 0.8% 1.1%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations