Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 11–18 March 2024

Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 12.0% 16.9% 15.8–17.7% 15.5–17.9% 15.3–17.9% 14.8–18.0%
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 16.0% 12.6% 11.6–13.3% 11.3–13.5% 11.1–13.6% 10.7–13.6%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 8.9% 8.1% 7.3–8.7% 7.1–8.8% 6.9–8.9% 6.5–9.0%
Mouvement Réformateur 7.6% 8.1% 7.2–7.5% 7.1–7.5% 7.0–7.5% 6.8–7.5%
Parti Socialiste 9.5% 7.8% 6.9–7.2% 6.8–7.3% 6.7–7.3% 6.5–7.3%
Vooruit 6.7% 7.1% 6.3–7.6% 6.1–7.8% 5.9–7.8% 5.6–7.9%
Parti du Travail de Belgique 4.8% 6.1% 5.2–5.5% 5.1–5.5% 5.0–5.5% 4.9–5.5%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3.3% 5.9% 5.2–6.4% 5.0–6.5% 4.8–6.6% 4.5–6.7%
Les Engagés 3.7% 5.8% 4.9–5.2% 4.8–5.2% 4.7–5.2% 4.6–5.2%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 8.5% 5.1% 4.5–5.6% 4.3–5.7% 4.1–5.8% 3.9–5.8%
Ecolo 6.1% 4.9% 4.1–4.4% 4.0–4.4% 4.0–4.4% 3.8–4.4%
Groen 6.1% 4.8% 4.2–5.3% 4.0–5.4% 3.9–5.5% 3.6–5.5%
DéFI 2.2% 2.2% 1.7–1.9% 1.7–1.9% 1.6–1.9% 1.5–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 18 26 25–29 24–29 23–29 22–30
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 25 19 18–21 17–22 16–22 15–23
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 12 11 10–13 10–14 10–14 10–15
Mouvement Réformateur 14 15 14–17 14–18 14–18 13–19
Parti Socialiste 20 16 14–17 13–17 13–17 12–18
Vooruit 9 10 9–11 8–11 7–12 6–12
Parti du Travail de Belgique 9 11 10–12 10–12 10–13 9–13
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3 8 7–9 6–9 5–9 5–10
Les Engagés 5 11 9–12 9–12 9–12 8–13
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 12 6 5–8 4–8 4–9 3–10
Ecolo 13 9 8–9 8–10 7–10 6–11
Groen 8 5 5–7 4–7 3–8 3–9
DéFI 2 1 1–3 1–3 1–4 1–4

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.5% 99.9%  
23 2% 99.4%  
24 4% 97%  
25 28% 93%  
26 17% 66% Median
27 23% 48%  
28 14% 25%  
29 9% 12%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.3% 0.4%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.6% 100%  
16 2% 99.4%  
17 7% 97%  
18 15% 90%  
19 27% 75% Median
20 33% 49%  
21 10% 15%  
22 4% 5%  
23 1.0% 1.3%  
24 0.3% 0.3%  
25 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
26 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100%  
9 0.2% 99.9%  
10 32% 99.7%  
11 36% 68% Median
12 13% 32% Last Result
13 13% 19%  
14 4% 6%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 1.4% 100%  
14 23% 98.6% Last Result
15 26% 75% Median
16 22% 50%  
17 21% 28%  
18 6% 7%  
19 0.6% 0.7%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 2% 99.7%  
13 4% 98%  
14 8% 93%  
15 20% 85%  
16 42% 65% Median
17 22% 23%  
18 1.1% 1.2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.5% 100%  
7 3% 99.5%  
8 5% 97%  
9 30% 92% Last Result
10 24% 62% Median
11 33% 38%  
12 4% 4%  
13 0.5% 0.5%  
14 0% 0%  

Parti du Travail de Belgique

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 1.2% 99.8% Last Result
10 31% 98.6%  
11 43% 68% Median
12 21% 25%  
13 3% 3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 3% 100%  
6 4% 97%  
7 7% 93%  
8 72% 87% Median
9 12% 15%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Les Engagés

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.6% 100%  
9 27% 99.4%  
10 17% 72%  
11 40% 55% Median
12 13% 15%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.7% 100%  
4 6% 99.3%  
5 4% 93%  
6 52% 90% Median
7 28% 38%  
8 7% 10%  
9 3% 4%  
10 0.5% 0.5%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 0.8% 99.8%  
7 2% 99.0%  
8 34% 97%  
9 56% 63% Median
10 4% 7%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.4% 0.4%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 3% 100%  
4 3% 97%  
5 48% 94% Median
6 15% 46%  
7 27% 31%  
8 3% 5% Last Result
9 2% 2%  
10 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 52% 100% Median
2 31% 48% Last Result
3 13% 17%  
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen 93 84 100% 81–86 80–87 80–88 78–89
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Les Engagés – Ecolo – Groen 79 81 98.8% 78–83 77–84 76–85 75–87
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen 88 73 16% 70–76 70–77 69–78 67–79
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 72 69 0.1% 67–72 66–73 65–73 64–75
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Les Engagés – Ecolo – Groen 67 69 0.1% 67–72 66–73 65–73 64–75
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 80 67 0% 64–70 63–71 62–71 61–73
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 68 63 0% 60–66 60–67 59–67 58–69
Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen 76 62 0% 59–65 58–65 58–66 56–67
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Les Engagés – Ecolo – Groen 67 62 0% 59–65 58–65 57–66 56–68
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 63 59 0% 57–62 56–63 56–63 54–64
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Ecolo – Groen 62 59 0% 56–62 55–62 55–63 53–64
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen 64 58 0% 55–61 55–62 54–63 53–64
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 63 52 0% 50–55 49–56 48–57 47–58
Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 55 48 0% 45–50 44–51 43–52 42–53
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Les Engagés 46 47 0% 45–50 44–51 43–51 42–53
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 43 44 0% 41–46 41–47 40–48 39–49

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.2% 100%  
78 0.6% 99.8%  
79 2% 99.2%  
80 4% 98%  
81 8% 94%  
82 14% 86%  
83 18% 72% Median
84 19% 54%  
85 16% 34%  
86 10% 18%  
87 5% 8%  
88 2% 3%  
89 0.8% 1.0%  
90 0.2% 0.2%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Les Engagés – Ecolo – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 0.8% 99.6%  
76 2% 98.8% Majority
77 5% 97%  
78 9% 92%  
79 14% 83% Last Result
80 17% 69%  
81 17% 52% Median
82 15% 35%  
83 10% 20%  
84 6% 10%  
85 3% 4%  
86 1.1% 2%  
87 0.4% 0.5%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.5% 99.8%  
68 1.3% 99.4%  
69 3% 98%  
70 6% 95%  
71 11% 89%  
72 15% 78% Median
73 18% 63%  
74 17% 45%  
75 13% 28%  
76 8% 16% Majority
77 4% 7%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.7% 1.0%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.3% 99.9%  
64 0.9% 99.6%  
65 2% 98.8%  
66 5% 96%  
67 10% 91%  
68 16% 80%  
69 20% 64% Median
70 18% 44%  
71 13% 26%  
72 8% 14% Last Result
73 4% 6%  
74 2% 2%  
75 0.5% 0.6%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Les Engagés – Ecolo – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.3% 99.9%  
64 1.0% 99.5%  
65 2% 98.5%  
66 5% 96%  
67 10% 91% Last Result
68 15% 81%  
69 18% 66%  
70 18% 47% Median
71 14% 30%  
72 9% 16%  
73 4% 7%  
74 2% 2%  
75 0.5% 0.7%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 0.8% 99.6%  
62 2% 98.9%  
63 4% 97%  
64 8% 93%  
65 13% 85%  
66 16% 73% Median
67 17% 56%  
68 15% 39%  
69 11% 23%  
70 7% 12%  
71 3% 5%  
72 1.3% 2%  
73 0.4% 0.6%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.9%  
58 1.1% 99.5%  
59 3% 98%  
60 7% 95%  
61 12% 88%  
62 18% 76% Median
63 19% 58%  
64 16% 39%  
65 11% 23%  
66 6% 12%  
67 3% 6%  
68 1.5% 2% Last Result
69 0.6% 0.8%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.5% 99.8%  
57 1.5% 99.3%  
58 3% 98%  
59 7% 94%  
60 12% 87%  
61 17% 75% Median
62 18% 59%  
63 17% 40%  
64 12% 24%  
65 7% 12%  
66 3% 5%  
67 1.1% 2%  
68 0.3% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Les Engagés – Ecolo – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.7% 99.7%  
57 2% 99.0%  
58 4% 97%  
59 8% 93%  
60 13% 84%  
61 17% 71%  
62 18% 54% Median
63 15% 36%  
64 10% 21%  
65 6% 11%  
66 3% 5%  
67 1.3% 2% Last Result
68 0.5% 0.6%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.5% 99.9%  
55 2% 99.4%  
56 5% 98%  
57 10% 93%  
58 17% 83%  
59 21% 65% Median
60 18% 45%  
61 13% 27%  
62 8% 13%  
63 4% 6% Last Result
64 1.3% 2%  
65 0.4% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Ecolo – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.6% 99.7%  
54 2% 99.1%  
55 3% 98%  
56 7% 94%  
57 12% 88%  
58 17% 76%  
59 20% 59% Median
60 18% 39%  
61 12% 22%  
62 6% 10% Last Result
63 3% 4%  
64 0.9% 1.2%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 1.1% 99.6%  
54 3% 98%  
55 7% 95%  
56 12% 89%  
57 17% 76% Median
58 19% 60%  
59 16% 41%  
60 12% 25%  
61 7% 13%  
62 4% 6%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.7% 1.0% Last Result
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.6% 99.8%  
48 2% 99.2%  
49 5% 97%  
50 10% 93%  
51 15% 83% Median
52 18% 68%  
53 18% 50%  
54 14% 32%  
55 9% 18%  
56 5% 9%  
57 2% 4%  
58 0.9% 1.3%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.7% 99.8%  
43 2% 99.1%  
44 4% 97%  
45 9% 93%  
46 15% 84%  
47 19% 69% Median
48 18% 50%  
49 15% 32%  
50 9% 17%  
51 5% 8%  
52 2% 3%  
53 0.7% 0.9%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Les Engagés

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.7% 99.7%  
43 2% 99.0%  
44 5% 97%  
45 10% 92%  
46 16% 81% Last Result
47 20% 65%  
48 18% 45% Median
49 13% 27%  
50 8% 14%  
51 4% 6%  
52 2% 2%  
53 0.6% 0.8%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.3% 100%  
39 0.9% 99.7%  
40 3% 98.8%  
41 8% 95%  
42 16% 87%  
43 20% 71% Last Result, Median
44 18% 50%  
45 14% 32%  
46 9% 18%  
47 5% 8%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.9% 1.3%  
50 0.3% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations