Opinion Poll by Kantar for La Libre Belgique and RTBf, 8–18 April 2024

Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 12.0% 16.4% 14.6–15.5% 14.4–15.5% 14.2–15.5% 13.8–15.5%
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 16.0% 13.2% 11.5–12.3% 11.3–12.3% 11.1–12.3% 10.8–12.3%
Parti Socialiste 9.5% 8.9% 7.9–8.3% 7.8–8.3% 7.7–8.4% 7.6–8.4%
Mouvement Réformateur 7.6% 8.1% 7.1–7.5% 7.1–7.5% 7.0–7.5% 6.8–7.5%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3.3% 7.5% 6.8–8.1% 6.6–8.3% 6.4–8.3% 6.0–8.4%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 8.9% 7.3% 6.0–6.6% 5.9–6.6% 5.8–6.7% 5.5–6.7%
Vooruit 6.7% 7.1% 6.3–7.7% 6.2–7.8% 6.0–7.9% 5.6–8.0%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 8.5% 6.6% 5.3–5.9% 5.2–5.9% 5.1–5.9% 4.8–5.9%
Parti du Travail de Belgique 4.8% 6.1% 5.2–5.6% 5.1–5.6% 5.1–5.6% 4.9–5.6%
Ecolo 6.1% 5.4% 4.6–4.9% 4.6–4.9% 4.5–4.9% 4.4–4.9%
Les Engagés 3.7% 4.7% 3.9–4.2% 3.8–4.2% 3.8–4.2% 3.6–4.2%
Groen 6.1% 3.7% 3.2–4.2% 3.0–4.3% 2.9–4.3% 2.7–4.4%
DéFI 2.2% 1.8% 1.4–1.6% 1.4–1.6% 1.3–1.6% 1.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 18 25 23–27 23–28 22–29 21–30
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 25 20 18–21 18–22 17–23 16–24
Parti Socialiste 20 17 16–19 16–19 16–20 15–20
Mouvement Réformateur 14 16 15–17 14–18 14–18 14–19
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3 10 9–12 8–13 8–13 8–13
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 12 10 9–11 9–11 8–11 6–13
Vooruit 9 10 9–11 8–11 7–12 7–12
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 12 9 7–10 7–10 6–10 6–11
Parti du Travail de Belgique 9 11 9–12 9–12 9–12 9–12
Ecolo 13 10 9–11 9–11 9–12 7–12
Les Engagés 5 8 6–9 6–9 5–10 5–10
Groen 8 3 3–5 3–5 2–5 1–6
DéFI 2 1 1 1 1–2 1–3

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.6% 99.8%  
22 3% 99.2%  
23 8% 97%  
24 15% 89%  
25 30% 74% Median
26 27% 44%  
27 9% 17%  
28 4% 7%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.7% 0.8%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.5% 100%  
16 1.1% 99.5%  
17 3% 98%  
18 14% 95%  
19 30% 81%  
20 35% 51% Median
21 10% 17%  
22 4% 6%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.7% 0.9%  
25 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
26 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 2% 99.9%  
16 27% 98%  
17 35% 71% Median
18 18% 35%  
19 13% 17%  
20 5% 5% Last Result
21 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 6% 99.7% Last Result
15 40% 94%  
16 34% 54% Median
17 13% 20%  
18 5% 6%  
19 1.0% 1.0%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 7% 100%  
9 33% 93%  
10 33% 60% Median
11 13% 27%  
12 5% 15%  
13 9% 9%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.6% 100%  
7 0.6% 99.4%  
8 2% 98.8%  
9 9% 97%  
10 54% 88% Median
11 31% 33%  
12 1.3% 2% Last Result
13 0.7% 0.9%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.5% 100%  
7 3% 99.5%  
8 5% 96%  
9 24% 91% Last Result
10 24% 68% Median
11 40% 44%  
12 3% 4%  
13 0.3% 0.5%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 5% 100%  
7 11% 95%  
8 21% 84%  
9 16% 63% Median
10 46% 47%  
11 0.9% 1.2%  
12 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
13 0% 0%  

Parti du Travail de Belgique

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 11% 99.8% Last Result
10 35% 89%  
11 39% 54% Median
12 15% 15%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.5% 99.9%  
8 1.3% 99.4%  
9 40% 98%  
10 45% 58% Median
11 10% 13%  
12 3% 3%  
13 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
14 0% 0%  

Les Engagés

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 3% 99.7% Last Result
6 8% 97%  
7 14% 89%  
8 31% 75% Median
9 39% 44%  
10 4% 4%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 1.3% 99.6%  
2 2% 98%  
3 60% 96% Median
4 12% 36%  
5 23% 24%  
6 0.7% 0.9%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 96% 99.7% Median
2 3% 4% Last Result
3 1.1% 1.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Les Engagés – Groen 93 84 100% 81–86 80–86 79–87 78–88
Parti Socialiste – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Les Engagés – Groen 79 79 97% 77–82 76–83 75–84 74–85
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen 88 75 49% 73–78 72–79 71–80 70–81
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 80 71 3% 69–74 68–75 67–76 66–77
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 72 70 0.2% 68–73 67–73 66–74 65–75
Parti Socialiste – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Les Engagés – Groen 67 69 0.2% 67–72 66–73 65–73 64–75
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen 76 65 0% 62–68 62–69 61–69 59–71
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 68 63 0% 60–65 59–66 58–67 57–68
Parti Socialiste – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Groen 62 61 0% 58–64 58–65 57–66 56–67
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 63 60 0% 58–62 57–63 56–63 55–64
Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Ecolo – Les Engagés – Groen 67 59 0% 56–61 56–62 55–63 53–64
Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Les Engagés – Groen 64 56 0% 54–59 53–59 52–60 51–61
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 63 54 0% 52–57 51–58 50–58 49–60
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 55 52 0% 49–54 49–55 48–56 46–57
Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Les Engagés 46 46 0% 43–48 42–48 42–49 40–50
Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés 43 43 0% 40–45 40–46 39–46 37–47

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Les Engagés – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100% Majority
77 0.2% 99.9%  
78 0.6% 99.8%  
79 2% 99.2%  
80 4% 97%  
81 8% 94%  
82 13% 86%  
83 20% 73% Median
84 23% 53%  
85 18% 30%  
86 8% 12%  
87 3% 4%  
88 0.9% 1.1%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Les Engagés – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.7% 99.7%  
75 2% 99.0%  
76 4% 97% Majority
77 9% 93%  
78 15% 84%  
79 21% 69% Last Result, Median
80 20% 49%  
81 14% 29%  
82 8% 15%  
83 4% 7%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.7% 0.9%  
86 0.2% 0.2%  
87 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.4% 99.9%  
70 1.0% 99.5%  
71 2% 98%  
72 5% 96%  
73 9% 91%  
74 14% 82%  
75 19% 68% Median
76 19% 49% Majority
77 15% 30%  
78 9% 16%  
79 4% 7%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.6% 0.8%  
82 0.2% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.3% 99.9%  
66 0.9% 99.6%  
67 2% 98.7%  
68 5% 96%  
69 9% 91%  
70 14% 82%  
71 18% 68%  
72 18% 50% Median
73 15% 32%  
74 9% 17%  
75 5% 8%  
76 2% 3% Majority
77 0.7% 1.0%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.3% 99.9%  
65 0.9% 99.6%  
66 2% 98.7%  
67 5% 96%  
68 10% 91%  
69 15% 81%  
70 20% 66% Median
71 20% 47%  
72 15% 27% Last Result
73 8% 11%  
74 3% 3%  
75 0.6% 0.8%  
76 0.1% 0.2% Majority
77 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Les Engagés – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.8% 99.7%  
65 2% 98.9%  
66 5% 97%  
67 10% 92% Last Result
68 17% 82%  
69 21% 65% Median
70 18% 44%  
71 12% 26%  
72 8% 14%  
73 4% 6%  
74 2% 2%  
75 0.5% 0.7%  
76 0.1% 0.2% Majority
77 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.4% 99.8%  
60 1.2% 99.4%  
61 3% 98%  
62 6% 95%  
63 10% 89%  
64 15% 79%  
65 18% 64% Median
66 18% 46%  
67 13% 28%  
68 8% 14%  
69 4% 6%  
70 2% 2%  
71 0.5% 0.7%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.9%  
57 0.9% 99.6%  
58 2% 98.6%  
59 5% 96%  
60 9% 91%  
61 14% 82%  
62 18% 68%  
63 19% 50% Median
64 15% 32%  
65 9% 17%  
66 5% 7%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.7% 0.9% Last Result
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 1.0% 99.6%  
57 3% 98.6%  
58 6% 96%  
59 12% 90%  
60 17% 78%  
61 19% 61% Median
62 16% 43% Last Result
63 12% 27%  
64 7% 15%  
65 4% 7%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.8% 1.2%  
68 0.3% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.7% 99.8%  
56 2% 99.1%  
57 5% 97%  
58 9% 92%  
59 15% 82%  
60 21% 67% Median
61 22% 46%  
62 16% 24%  
63 7% 9% Last Result
64 2% 2%  
65 0.3% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Ecolo – Les Engagés – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.4% 99.9%  
54 1.1% 99.5%  
55 3% 98%  
56 6% 96%  
57 13% 90%  
58 20% 77% Median
59 21% 57%  
60 17% 36%  
61 11% 19%  
62 5% 8%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.5% 0.7%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo – Les Engagés – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 0.9% 99.7%  
52 2% 98.8%  
53 5% 96%  
54 9% 91%  
55 16% 82%  
56 21% 66% Median
57 20% 46%  
58 15% 25%  
59 7% 11%  
60 3% 3%  
61 0.7% 0.8%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0% Last Result

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.6% 99.8%  
50 2% 99.3%  
51 5% 97%  
52 9% 93%  
53 15% 83%  
54 21% 68%  
55 20% 47% Median
56 14% 27%  
57 8% 14%  
58 4% 6%  
59 1.4% 2%  
60 0.5% 0.7%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.4% 99.9%  
47 1.2% 99.4%  
48 3% 98%  
49 7% 95%  
50 11% 88%  
51 17% 77%  
52 20% 60% Median
53 18% 40%  
54 13% 22%  
55 7% 10% Last Result
56 2% 3%  
57 0.6% 0.7%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.5% 99.8%  
41 1.4% 99.3%  
42 3% 98%  
43 7% 95%  
44 13% 88%  
45 22% 74% Median
46 23% 53% Last Result
47 17% 30%  
48 9% 13%  
49 3% 5%  
50 1.1% 1.4%  
51 0.3% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 1.2% 99.5%  
39 3% 98%  
40 6% 95%  
41 11% 89%  
42 16% 78%  
43 20% 61% Last Result, Median
44 20% 41%  
45 13% 21%  
46 6% 8%  
47 2% 2%  
48 0.3% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations