Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 14–20 May 2024

Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 12.0% 16.6% 15.8–17.1% 15.6–17.2% 15.4–17.3% 15.0–17.3%
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 16.0% 12.7% 12.0–13.2% 11.8–13.4% 11.7–13.4% 11.3–13.5%
Vooruit 6.7% 8.8% 8.2–9.3% 8.1–9.4% 7.9–9.4% 7.6–9.5%
Mouvement Réformateur 7.6% 8.7% 7.7–8.1% 7.6–8.1% 7.5–8.1% 7.3–8.1%
Parti Socialiste 9.5% 8.1% 7.1–7.5% 7.0–7.5% 6.9–7.5% 6.7–7.5%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 8.9% 7.5% 7.0–8.0% 6.8–8.0% 6.7–8.1% 6.4–8.1%
Les Engagés 3.7% 6.1% 5.3–5.6% 5.2–5.6% 5.1–5.6% 4.9–5.6%
Parti du Travail de Belgique 4.8% 5.9% 5.1–5.4% 5.0–5.4% 4.9–5.4% 4.8–5.4%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3.3% 5.5% 5.0–5.9% 4.9–5.9% 4.8–6.0% 4.5–6.0%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 8.5% 5.1% 4.6–5.4% 4.5–5.5% 4.4–5.5% 4.1–5.6%
Groen 6.1% 4.1% 3.7–4.4% 3.5–4.5% 3.4–4.5% 3.3–4.5%
Ecolo 6.1% 3.6% 3.0–3.2% 2.9–3.2% 2.9–3.2% 2.7–3.2%
DéFI 2.2% 1.9% 1.4–1.6% 1.4–1.6% 1.3–1.6% 1.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 18 26 25–28 25–28 24–29 23–29
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 25 20 18–21 18–21 18–21 17–22
Vooruit 9 13 12–14 11–14 11–14 11–16
Mouvement Réformateur 14 18 16–19 15–19 15–20 14–21
Parti Socialiste 20 16 15–17 14–18 14–19 13–20
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 12 10 10–11 10–11 10–12 10–13
Les Engagés 5 12 10–13 9–13 9–13 9–14
Parti du Travail de Belgique 9 11 10–12 10–13 10–13 9–13
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3 8 7–8 6–8 5–8 5–9
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 12 6 6–7 5–7 5–8 4–9
Groen 8 5 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–7
Ecolo 13 4 4–7 4–8 4–8 3–9
DéFI 2 1 1 1–2 1–3 0–3

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.2% 100%  
23 1.0% 99.8%  
24 3% 98.8%  
25 30% 96%  
26 34% 65% Median
27 19% 31%  
28 7% 12%  
29 4% 4%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 2% 99.9%  
18 9% 98%  
19 23% 90%  
20 55% 67% Median
21 10% 12%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.3% 0.4%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 9% 100%  
12 40% 91%  
13 39% 51% Median
14 10% 13%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.6% 0.6%  
17 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 2% 100% Last Result
15 4% 98%  
16 7% 94%  
17 13% 88%  
18 44% 75% Median
19 27% 31%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.4% 0.6%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.4% 100%  
13 1.4% 99.6%  
14 3% 98%  
15 11% 95%  
16 34% 84% Median
17 42% 50%  
18 6% 8%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.8% 0.8% Last Result
21 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 68% 99.8% Median
11 28% 32%  
12 4% 5% Last Result
13 0.9% 1.0%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Les Engagés

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 6% 100%  
10 12% 94%  
11 30% 81%  
12 38% 51% Median
13 10% 12%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  

Parti du Travail de Belgique

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 0.8% 99.8% Last Result
10 17% 99.0%  
11 47% 82% Median
12 28% 35%  
13 7% 7%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 4% 100%  
6 5% 96%  
7 15% 91%  
8 75% 76% Median
9 1.5% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 2% 100%  
5 3% 98%  
6 62% 95% Median
7 30% 33%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.6% 0.6%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 28% 100%  
4 13% 72%  
5 58% 59% Median
6 1.2% 2%  
7 0.6% 0.6%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.5% 100%  
4 51% 99.5% Median
5 18% 49%  
6 18% 30%  
7 7% 13%  
8 5% 6%  
9 0.5% 0.5%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.7% 100%  
1 90% 99.3% Median
2 6% 9% Last Result
3 3% 3%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo 93 84 100% 82–86 82–87 81–87 80–88
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo 79 79 98% 77–81 76–82 76–83 75–84
Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 72 75 39% 72–77 72–78 71–78 70–79
Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo 88 73 7% 71–75 70–76 69–76 68–78
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 80 73 6% 70–75 70–76 69–76 68–77
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo 67 68 0% 66–71 66–72 65–72 64–74
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 68 66 0% 63–68 62–69 62–69 61–70
Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo 76 62 0% 60–65 60–65 59–66 58–67
Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 63 62 0% 60–64 60–65 59–65 58–67
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Groen – Ecolo 67 60 0% 58–62 57–63 57–64 56–65
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo 62 57 0% 55–60 54–60 54–61 53–62
Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo 64 55 0% 53–57 53–58 52–59 51–60
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 63 54 0% 52–56 51–57 51–57 49–58
Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 55 53 0% 51–55 50–56 49–56 48–57
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 46 51 0% 48–53 48–54 47–54 46–55
Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 43 46 0% 44–48 43–49 42–49 41–50

Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.7% 99.8%  
81 3% 99.2%  
82 8% 97%  
83 18% 89%  
84 28% 70% Median
85 24% 43%  
86 13% 19%  
87 4% 6%  
88 1.3% 2%  
89 0.3% 0.4%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 1.3% 99.7%  
76 4% 98% Majority
77 11% 94%  
78 23% 83%  
79 27% 60% Last Result, Median
80 17% 33%  
81 8% 15%  
82 4% 7%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.6% 0.7%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.2% 100%  
70 0.8% 99.8%  
71 3% 99.0%  
72 6% 96% Last Result
73 12% 90%  
74 18% 78%  
75 21% 60% Median
76 19% 39% Majority
77 13% 20%  
78 5% 8%  
79 2% 2%  
80 0.4% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.6% 99.8%  
69 2% 99.2%  
70 6% 97%  
71 13% 92%  
72 21% 78% Median
73 23% 57%  
74 18% 35%  
75 10% 17%  
76 5% 7% Majority
77 2% 2%  
78 0.4% 0.6%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.3% 99.9%  
68 1.1% 99.6%  
69 3% 98%  
70 6% 96%  
71 11% 90%  
72 18% 79%  
73 23% 60% Median
74 20% 37%  
75 11% 17%  
76 4% 6% Majority
77 1.4% 2%  
78 0.3% 0.4%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.6% 99.9%  
65 3% 99.3%  
66 8% 97%  
67 16% 89% Last Result
68 23% 73%  
69 23% 50% Median
70 15% 27%  
71 7% 12%  
72 3% 5%  
73 1.4% 2%  
74 0.4% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.4% 99.9%  
61 1.3% 99.5%  
62 4% 98%  
63 8% 95%  
64 13% 87%  
65 18% 74%  
66 21% 56% Median
67 19% 35%  
68 11% 16% Last Result
69 4% 5%  
70 1.0% 1.3%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.9%  
58 1.1% 99.7%  
59 3% 98.6%  
60 8% 95%  
61 16% 87%  
62 22% 71% Median
63 21% 49%  
64 15% 28%  
65 8% 13%  
66 3% 5%  
67 1.0% 1.3%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.9%  
58 1.2% 99.7%  
59 3% 98.5%  
60 9% 95%  
61 16% 86%  
62 21% 70% Median
63 23% 49% Last Result
64 16% 25%  
65 7% 9%  
66 2% 2%  
67 0.5% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Groen – Ecolo

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.2% 100%  
56 1.1% 99.7%  
57 4% 98.6%  
58 11% 95%  
59 21% 83%  
60 26% 62% Median
61 19% 37%  
62 10% 18%  
63 5% 8%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.7% 1.0%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0% 0.1% Last Result
68 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 2% 99.6%  
54 5% 98%  
55 12% 93%  
56 19% 81%  
57 21% 62% Median
58 18% 41%  
59 12% 23%  
60 7% 11%  
61 3% 4%  
62 1.1% 1.4% Last Result
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.2% 100%  
51 1.0% 99.7%  
52 3% 98.7%  
53 9% 95%  
54 17% 87%  
55 25% 70% Median
56 24% 45%  
57 13% 21%  
58 5% 8%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.7% 1.0%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0% Last Result

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.5% 99.8%  
50 2% 99.3%  
51 4% 98%  
52 9% 94%  
53 15% 85%  
54 23% 71% Median
55 25% 47%  
56 15% 22%  
57 5% 7%  
58 1.5% 2%  
59 0.4% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.2% 100%  
48 0.6% 99.8%  
49 2% 99.2%  
50 4% 97%  
51 9% 93%  
52 17% 84%  
53 24% 67% Median
54 23% 44%  
55 13% 21% Last Result
56 5% 8%  
57 2% 2%  
58 0.4% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
47 2% 99.4%  
48 7% 97%  
49 14% 90%  
50 20% 76%  
51 22% 56% Median
52 18% 34%  
53 10% 16%  
54 4% 5%  
55 1.0% 1.3%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.5% 99.9%  
42 2% 99.4%  
43 6% 97% Last Result
44 11% 92%  
45 17% 80%  
46 24% 64% Median
47 22% 40%  
48 12% 18%  
49 4% 6%  
50 1.2% 1.5%  
51 0.3% 0.3%  
52 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations