Opinion Poll by Cluster17 for RTL TVi, 28–31 May 2024

Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 12.0% 16.8% 15.8–17.5% 15.5–17.7% 15.2–17.8% 14.8–17.8%
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 16.0% 12.1% 11.2–12.8% 10.9–12.9% 10.7–13.0% 10.3–13.1%
Mouvement Réformateur 7.6% 9.0% 8.0–8.4% 7.9–8.4% 7.8–8.4% 7.6–8.4%
Parti Socialiste 9.5% 8.6% 7.6–8.0% 7.5–8.0% 7.4–8.0% 7.2–8.0%
Vooruit 6.7% 8.0% 7.2–8.6% 7.1–8.7% 6.9–8.8% 6.5–8.8%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 8.9% 7.4% 6.7–8.0% 6.5–8.1% 6.3–8.2% 6.0–8.2%
Parti du Travail de Belgique 4.8% 6.6% 5.7–6.1% 5.6–6.1% 5.5–6.1% 5.4–6.1%
Les Engagés 3.7% 6.2% 5.3–5.6% 5.2–5.6% 5.1–5.6% 5.0–5.6%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3.3% 5.7% 5.1–6.3% 4.9–6.4% 4.8–6.4% 4.5–6.5%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 8.5% 5.7% 5.0–6.2% 4.9–6.3% 4.7–6.4% 4.5–6.4%
Groen 6.1% 4.3% 3.7–4.7% 3.6–4.8% 3.4–4.9% 3.2–4.9%
Ecolo 6.1% 3.4% 2.8–3.1% 2.7–3.1% 2.7–3.1% 2.6–3.1%
DéFI 2.2% 1.8% 1.4–1.6% 1.3–1.6% 1.3–1.6% 1.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 18 26 25–29 25–29 24–29 23–30
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 25 19 17–20 16–20 16–20 15–22
Mouvement Réformateur 14 18 16–19 16–19 15–20 14–20
Parti Socialiste 20 17 16–18 15–19 15–19 14–20
Vooruit 9 11 11–13 10–13 9–13 9–14
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 12 10 10–12 10–12 9–13 9–13
Parti du Travail de Belgique 9 12 11–13 10–13 10–13 10–14
Les Engagés 5 11 10–12 9–13 9–13 9–14
Partij van de Arbeid van België 3 8 7–9 6–9 5–9 5–10
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 12 7 6–9 6–10 6–10 6–10
Groen 8 5 3–6 3–6 3–7 3–7
Ecolo 13 4 4–5 4–6 3–6 3–7
DéFI 2 1 1 1–2 1–2 0–3

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 0.8% 99.7%  
24 3% 98.9%  
25 34% 96%  
26 19% 62% Median
27 16% 43%  
28 14% 27%  
29 11% 12%  
30 0.9% 1.1%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 2% 100%  
16 7% 98%  
17 13% 91%  
18 23% 78%  
19 23% 55% Median
20 31% 33%  
21 1.4% 2%  
22 0.4% 0.5%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Mouvement Réformateur

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.6% 100% Last Result
15 2% 99.4%  
16 9% 97%  
17 15% 88%  
18 43% 73% Median
19 27% 30%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.5% 99.8%  
15 7% 99.3%  
16 32% 92%  
17 41% 60% Median
18 12% 19%  
19 5% 7%  
20 2% 2% Last Result
21 0% 0%  

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 3% 99.9% Last Result
10 4% 97%  
11 53% 93% Median
12 25% 40%  
13 12% 14%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.3% 99.9%  
9 2% 99.6%  
10 62% 97% Median
11 25% 35%  
12 7% 10% Last Result
13 4% 4%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Parti du Travail de Belgique

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 7% 100%  
11 26% 93%  
12 35% 67% Median
13 30% 31%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0% 0%  

Les Engagés

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 6% 100%  
10 22% 94%  
11 36% 72% Median
12 29% 36%  
13 7% 8%  
14 0.6% 0.7%  
15 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 3% 100%  
6 4% 97%  
7 8% 93%  
8 73% 85% Median
9 12% 12%  
10 0.6% 0.7%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 0.3% 99.8%  
6 24% 99.5%  
7 33% 76% Median
8 18% 42%  
9 19% 24%  
10 5% 5%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 18% 100%  
4 8% 82%  
5 61% 74% Median
6 9% 13%  
7 4% 4%  
8 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 5% 100%  
4 76% 95% Median
5 13% 19%  
6 5% 6%  
7 0.8% 1.1%  
8 0.3% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100%  
1 94% 98.8% Median
2 4% 5% Last Result
3 0.7% 0.7%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo 93 84 100% 82–87 81–87 80–88 79–89
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Les Engagés – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo 79 79 95% 76–81 76–82 75–82 74–84
Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 72 75 44% 73–78 72–78 72–79 71–80
Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo 88 73 11% 70–76 70–76 69–77 68–78
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 80 72 4% 70–75 69–75 68–76 67–77
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Les Engagés – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo 67 68 0% 66–70 65–71 65–72 63–73
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 68 66 0% 63–68 62–69 61–70 60–71
Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 63 64 0% 61–66 61–67 60–67 59–68
Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo 76 63 0% 60–65 59–66 59–66 58–68
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Groen – Ecolo 67 59 0% 56–61 56–62 55–63 54–64
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo 62 57 0% 55–59 54–60 53–61 52–62
Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo 64 56 0% 53–58 53–59 52–60 51–61
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 63 54 0% 52–57 51–58 50–58 49–59
Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 55 54 0% 51–56 51–57 50–57 49–58
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 46 50 0% 48–52 47–53 47–53 46–55
Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 43 47 0% 44–49 44–50 43–51 42–52

Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.9% 99.9%  
80 2% 99.0%  
81 5% 97%  
82 11% 92%  
83 18% 81% Median
84 21% 63%  
85 19% 42%  
86 13% 24%  
87 7% 11%  
88 3% 4%  
89 0.9% 1.1%  
90 0.2% 0.2%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Les Engagés – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.3% 99.9%  
74 1.1% 99.7%  
75 4% 98.6%  
76 8% 95% Majority
77 14% 87%  
78 21% 73% Median
79 21% 52% Last Result
80 16% 31%  
81 9% 15%  
82 4% 6%  
83 2% 2%  
84 0.5% 0.7%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.4% 99.9%  
71 2% 99.5%  
72 6% 98% Last Result
73 11% 92%  
74 17% 81% Median
75 20% 64%  
76 18% 44% Majority
77 13% 25%  
78 7% 12%  
79 3% 4%  
80 1.0% 1.2%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.3% 99.9%  
68 1.2% 99.7%  
69 3% 98.5%  
70 6% 96%  
71 11% 90%  
72 18% 78% Median
73 20% 61%  
74 17% 40%  
75 12% 23%  
76 7% 11% Majority
77 3% 4%  
78 1.0% 1.4%  
79 0.3% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.7% 99.7%  
68 2% 99.0%  
69 6% 97%  
70 11% 91%  
71 16% 80%  
72 19% 64% Median
73 19% 45%  
74 14% 26%  
75 8% 12%  
76 3% 4% Majority
77 1.0% 1.4%  
78 0.3% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Les Engagés – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.4% 99.9%  
64 1.5% 99.5%  
65 5% 98%  
66 11% 93%  
67 18% 82% Last Result
68 24% 65% Median
69 19% 41%  
70 12% 21%  
71 6% 9%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.8% 1.1%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.7% 99.7%  
61 2% 99.0%  
62 5% 97%  
63 9% 92%  
64 14% 83%  
65 18% 69% Median
66 18% 51%  
67 15% 33%  
68 10% 17% Last Result
69 5% 8%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.6% 0.7%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.4% 99.9%  
60 2% 99.5%  
61 8% 97%  
62 15% 89%  
63 20% 74% Last Result, Median
64 20% 54%  
65 17% 34%  
66 11% 17%  
67 5% 7%  
68 1.4% 2%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.4% 99.9%  
58 2% 99.5%  
59 4% 98%  
60 8% 94%  
61 14% 86%  
62 20% 72% Median
63 20% 52%  
64 16% 32%  
65 9% 16%  
66 4% 6%  
67 2% 2%  
68 0.4% 0.6%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 1.0% 99.8%  
55 3% 98.9%  
56 7% 96%  
57 14% 89%  
58 19% 74% Median
59 20% 55%  
60 16% 35%  
61 10% 19%  
62 5% 8%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.7% 1.0%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100%  
52 0.7% 99.8%  
53 2% 99.1%  
54 6% 97%  
55 12% 91%  
56 18% 79%  
57 21% 61% Median
58 18% 40%  
59 12% 22%  
60 6% 10%  
61 2% 4%  
62 0.8% 1.1% Last Result
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 1.2% 99.6%  
52 3% 98%  
53 7% 95%  
54 13% 88%  
55 18% 76% Median
56 20% 58%  
57 17% 38%  
58 12% 21%  
59 6% 10%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.7% 0.9%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0% Last Result

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.7% 99.8%  
50 2% 99.1%  
51 5% 97%  
52 9% 92%  
53 15% 83%  
54 19% 69% Median
55 20% 49%  
56 15% 30%  
57 9% 14%  
58 4% 6%  
59 1.4% 2%  
60 0.3% 0.3%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.8% 99.7%  
50 3% 99.0%  
51 8% 96%  
52 15% 88%  
53 21% 73% Median
54 21% 53%  
55 17% 31% Last Result
56 9% 15%  
57 4% 5%  
58 1.2% 2%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.4% 99.9%  
46 2% 99.6% Last Result
47 7% 98%  
48 15% 91%  
49 20% 76% Median
50 22% 56%  
51 17% 35%  
52 10% 18%  
53 5% 7%  
54 2% 2%  
55 0.4% 0.6%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.2% 100%  
42 0.7% 99.8%  
43 3% 99.2% Last Result
44 7% 97%  
45 13% 90%  
46 18% 77% Median
47 20% 58%  
48 17% 39%  
49 12% 22%  
50 7% 10%  
51 2% 3%  
52 0.5% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations