Граждани за европейско развитие на България

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 23.2% (General Election of 11 July 2021)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 24.1% 21.4–26.7% 20.7–27.4% 20.1–28.0% 18.9–29.2%
10–17 October 2021 Gallup
BNR		 22.5% 20.3–24.9% 19.7–25.6% 19.2–26.2% 18.2–27.4%
5–12 October 2021 Sova Harris
Dir.bg		 24.6% 22.3–27.0% 21.7–27.7% 21.2–28.3% 20.1–29.5%
6–12 October 2021 Exacta 23.3% 21.0–25.9% 20.4–26.6% 19.8–27.2% 18.8–28.5%
6–10 October 2021 Център за анализи и маркетинг 25.5% 23.6–27.5% 23.1–28.1% 22.6–28.6% 21.7–29.6%
4–10 October 2021 Алфа рисърч 23.2% 21.0–25.6% 20.3–26.3% 19.8–26.9% 18.8–28.2%
21–26 September 2021 Gallup 21.4% 19.8–23.2% 19.4–23.7% 19.0–24.1% 18.3–24.9%
14–20 September 2021 Маркет ЛИНКС
bTV		 25.0% 22.8–27.3% 22.2–28.0% 21.7–28.5% 20.7–29.7%
8–15 September 2021 Тренд 24.4% 22.2–26.9% 21.5–27.6% 21.0–28.3% 19.9–29.5%
8–15 September 2021 Алфа рисърч 23.2% 21.0–25.7% 20.3–26.4% 19.8–27.0% 18.7–28.2%
2–10 September 2021 Gallup 22.6% 20.2–25.2% 19.6–25.9% 19.0–26.6% 18.0–27.8%
13–22 August 2021 Маркет ЛИНКС
bTV		 23.7% 21.5–26.1% 20.8–26.8% 20.3–27.4% 19.3–28.6%
23–30 July 2021 Тренд
24 часа		 22.4% 20.7–24.1% 20.3–24.6% 19.9–25.1% 19.1–25.9%
21–28 July 2021 Маркет ЛИНКС
bTV		 19.7% 17.6–22.1% 17.0–22.8% 16.5–23.4% 15.5–24.6%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Граждани за европейско развитие на България.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16.5–17.5% 0% 100%  
17.5–18.5% 0.2% 100%  
18.5–19.5% 1.0% 99.7%  
19.5–20.5% 3% 98.7%  
20.5–21.5% 7% 96%  
21.5–22.5% 12% 89%  
22.5–23.5% 16% 77% Last Result
23.5–24.5% 19% 60% Median
24.5–25.5% 17% 42%  
25.5–26.5% 13% 25%  
26.5–27.5% 7% 12%  
27.5–28.5% 3% 4%  
28.5–29.5% 1.0% 1.3%  
29.5–30.5% 0.2% 0.3%  
30.5–31.5% 0% 0.1%  
31.5–32.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 63 seats (General Election of 11 July 2021)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 64 57–70 55–72 53–73 50–76
10–17 October 2021 Gallup
BNR		 61 55–68 53–70 52–72 48–75
5–12 October 2021 Sova Harris
Dir.bg		 61 55–68 53–70 53–71 50–74
6–12 October 2021 Exacta 64 57–70 55–71 54–73 51–76
6–10 October 2021 Център за анализи и маркетинг 67 62–72 60–74 59–75 57–77
4–10 October 2021 Алфа рисърч 63 57–69 55–70 53–72 50–75
21–26 September 2021 Gallup 58 53–63 51–64 51–65 48–67
14–20 September 2021 Маркет ЛИНКС
bTV		 63 57–70 55–72 54–73 52–76
8–15 September 2021 Тренд 68 61–71 58–73 56–75 53–79
8–15 September 2021 Алфа рисърч 61 54–68 53–70 51–72 48–75
2–10 September 2021 Gallup 62 55–69 53–71 52–73 49–77
13–22 August 2021 Маркет ЛИНКС
bTV		 58 53–65 51–67 50–68 47–72
23–30 July 2021 Тренд
24 часа		 62 57–67 55–69 54–70 53–72
21–28 July 2021 Маркет ЛИНКС
bTV		 50 44–55 42–57 41–59 39–62

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Граждани за европейско развитие на България.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.1% 99.8%  
50 0.3% 99.7%  
51 0.4% 99.4%  
52 0.6% 99.0%  
53 1.4% 98%  
54 2% 97%  
55 2% 95%  
56 3% 93%  
57 3% 90%  
58 4% 87%  
59 5% 83%  
60 6% 78%  
61 7% 71%  
62 8% 64%  
63 5% 56% Last Result
64 8% 51% Median
65 8% 43%  
66 9% 35%  
67 5% 26%  
68 6% 21%  
69 5% 15%  
70 3% 11%  
71 2% 7%  
72 2% 5%  
73 1.2% 3%  
74 1.0% 2%  
75 0.5% 1.3%  
76 0.4% 0.8%  
77 0.2% 0.4%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%