Демократична България

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 12.5% (General Election of 11 July 2021)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 10.9% 8.8–13.3% 8.3–14.1% 7.8–14.7% 7.0–15.9%
10–17 October 2021 Gallup
BNR		 11.2% 9.6–13.1% 9.1–13.6% 8.8–14.1% 8.1–15.0%
5–12 October 2021 Sova Harris
Dir.bg		 9.1% 7.7–10.9% 7.3–11.4% 7.0–11.8% 6.4–12.7%
6–12 October 2021 Exacta 10.2% 8.6–12.1% 8.2–12.6% 7.8–13.1% 7.1–14.1%
6–10 October 2021 Център за анализи и маркетинг 10.8% 9.5–12.4% 9.2–12.8% 8.9–13.2% 8.3–13.9%
4–10 October 2021 Алфа рисърч 10.8% 9.3–12.8% 8.8–13.3% 8.5–13.8% 7.8–14.7%
21–26 September 2021 Gallup 12.1% 10.8–13.5% 10.5–13.9% 10.2–14.2% 9.6–14.9%
14–20 September 2021 Маркет ЛИНКС
bTV		 13.1% 11.4–15.0% 11.0–15.5% 10.6–16.0% 9.9–16.9%
8–15 September 2021 Тренд 8.6% 7.2–10.3% 6.8–10.8% 6.5–11.3% 5.9–12.2%
8–15 September 2021 Алфа рисърч 14.4% 12.6–16.6% 12.1–17.2% 11.7–17.7% 10.9–18.8%
2–10 September 2021 Gallup 15.8% 13.8–18.2% 13.3–18.8% 12.8–19.4% 11.9–20.5%
13–22 August 2021 Маркет ЛИНКС
bTV		 18.0% 16.1–20.3% 15.5–20.9% 15.0–21.5% 14.1–22.6%
23–30 July 2021 Тренд
24 часа		 14.1% 12.8–15.6% 12.4–16.0% 12.1–16.4% 11.5–17.1%
21–28 July 2021 Маркет ЛИНКС
bTV		 15.2% 13.3–17.4% 12.7–18.0% 12.3–18.5% 11.4–19.6%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Демократична България.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4.5–5.5% 0% 100%  
5.5–6.5% 0.1% 100%  
6.5–7.5% 1.3% 99.9%  
7.5–8.5% 6% 98.5%  
8.5–9.5% 14% 93%  
9.5–10.5% 21% 79%  
10.5–11.5% 23% 58% Median
11.5–12.5% 17% 35% Last Result
12.5–13.5% 10% 18%  
13.5–14.5% 5% 8%  
14.5–15.5% 2% 3%  
15.5–16.5% 0.6% 0.8%  
16.5–17.5% 0.1% 0.2%  
17.5–18.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 34 seats (General Election of 11 July 2021)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 29 23–35 21–37 20–38 18–41
10–17 October 2021 Gallup
BNR		 31 26–35 25–37 24–38 22–41
5–12 October 2021 Sova Harris
Dir.bg		 23 20–27 18–28 18–30 16–32
6–12 October 2021 Exacta 27 23–33 22–34 21–35 19–37
6–10 October 2021 Център за анализи и маркетинг 29 25–32 24–34 23–35 22–37
4–10 October 2021 Алфа рисърч 29 25–35 24–36 23–38 21–40
21–26 September 2021 Gallup 32 29–36 28–37 27–39 26–41
14–20 September 2021 Маркет ЛИНКС
bTV		 33 29–38 28–39 27–40 25–43
8–15 September 2021 Тренд 23 19–28 19–30 18–31 16–33
8–15 September 2021 Алфа рисърч 38 33–44 32–45 30–47 28–50
2–10 September 2021 Gallup 44 38–50 36–52 35–54 32–56
13–22 August 2021 Маркет ЛИНКС
bTV		 45 39–51 38–52 37–53 35–56
23–30 July 2021 Тренд
24 часа		 39 36–43 34–45 33–46 32–48
21–28 July 2021 Маркет ЛИНКС
bTV		 38 33–43 32–45 31–47 28–50

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Демократична България.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.2% 99.9%  
18 0.6% 99.7%  
19 0.6% 99.0%  
20 2% 98%  
21 3% 97%  
22 2% 94%  
23 4% 92%  
24 4% 88%  
25 7% 84%  
26 7% 77%  
27 9% 70%  
28 7% 61%  
29 8% 53% Median
30 8% 45%  
31 8% 37%  
32 7% 29%  
33 5% 22%  
34 5% 17% Last Result
35 4% 12%  
36 3% 8%  
37 2% 5%  
38 1.5% 3%  
39 1.0% 2%  
40 0.4% 1.0%  
41 0.2% 0.6%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%