Продължаваме промяната

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 11 July 2021)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 14.2% 11.7–16.9% 11.1–17.6% 10.6–18.3% 9.6–19.5%
10–17 October 2021 Gallup
BNR		 13.3% 11.6–15.4% 11.2–16.0% 10.7–16.5% 10.0–17.5%
5–12 October 2021 Sova Harris
Dir.bg		 14.9% 13.1–17.0% 12.6–17.6% 12.2–18.1% 11.4–19.1%
6–12 October 2021 Exacta 15.3% 13.4–17.6% 12.9–18.2% 12.5–18.8% 11.6–19.9%
6–10 October 2021 Център за анализи и маркетинг 13.4% 12.0–15.1% 11.6–15.5% 11.2–16.0% 10.6–16.8%
4–10 October 2021 Алфа рисърч 15.9% 14.0–18.1% 13.5–18.7% 13.0–19.2% 12.2–20.3%
21–26 September 2021 Gallup 15.2% 13.8–16.8% 13.5–17.2% 13.1–17.6% 12.5–18.3%
14–20 September 2021 Маркет ЛИНКС
bTV		 11.9% 10.4–13.7% 9.9–14.3% 9.6–14.7% 8.9–15.6%
8–15 September 2021 Тренд 9.1% 7.7–10.9% 7.3–11.4% 7.0–11.9% 6.4–12.8%
8–15 September 2021 Алфа рисърч 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
2–10 September 2021 Gallup 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
13–22 August 2021 Маркет ЛИНКС
bTV		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
23–30 July 2021 Тренд
24 часа		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
21–28 July 2021 Маркет ЛИНКС
bTV		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Продължаваме промяната.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 0% 100% Last Result
0.5–1.5% 0% 100%  
1.5–2.5% 0% 100%  
2.5–3.5% 0% 100%  
3.5–4.5% 0% 100%  
4.5–5.5% 0% 100%  
5.5–6.5% 0% 100%  
6.5–7.5% 0% 100%  
7.5–8.5% 0% 100%  
8.5–9.5% 0.4% 100%  
9.5–10.5% 2% 99.6%  
10.5–11.5% 6% 98%  
11.5–12.5% 12% 91%  
12.5–13.5% 17% 80%  
13.5–14.5% 19% 62% Median
14.5–15.5% 17% 43%  
15.5–16.5% 13% 26%  
16.5–17.5% 8% 13%  
17.5–18.5% 4% 5%  
18.5–19.5% 1.3% 2%  
19.5–20.5% 0.4% 0.4%  
20.5–21.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
21.5–22.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 11 July 2021)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 38 30–45 28–47 27–49 24–52
10–17 October 2021 Gallup
BNR		 37 32–42 30–43 29–44 27–48
5–12 October 2021 Sova Harris
Dir.bg		 38 33–43 32–45 31–46 29–49
6–12 October 2021 Exacta 40 36–47 35–49 33–51 31–54
6–10 October 2021 Център за анализи и маркетинг 35 31–39 31–40 30–41 28–44
4–10 October 2021 Алфа рисърч 43 38–48 36–50 35–52 33–55
21–26 September 2021 Gallup 41 37–46 36–47 35–47 33–50
14–20 September 2021 Маркет ЛИНКС
bTV		 30 26–35 25–36 24–37 22–40
8–15 September 2021 Тренд 26 21–29 20–31 19–32 17–34
8–15 September 2021 Алфа рисърч          
2–10 September 2021 Gallup          
13–22 August 2021 Маркет ЛИНКС
bTV		          
23–30 July 2021 Тренд
24 часа		          
21–28 July 2021 Маркет ЛИНКС
bTV		          

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Продължаваме промяната.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 0.3% 99.7%  
25 0.5% 99.4%  
26 1.1% 98.9%  
27 1.1% 98%  
28 2% 97%  
29 3% 95%  
30 3% 92%  
31 4% 89%  
32 5% 85%  
33 5% 80%  
34 6% 74%  
35 6% 69%  
36 6% 63%  
37 6% 57%  
38 8% 51% Median
39 8% 42%  
40 5% 35%  
41 5% 30%  
42 5% 25%  
43 4% 20%  
44 3% 16%  
45 3% 12%  
46 3% 9%  
47 1.3% 6%  
48 1.3% 4%  
49 1.0% 3%  
50 0.5% 2%  
51 0.6% 1.4%  
52 0.3% 0.8%  
53 0.2% 0.5%  
54 0.1% 0.3%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%