Poll Average
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Summary
The table below lists the polls on which the average is based. They are the most recent polls (less than 90 days old) registered and analyzed so far.
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Ref | Kesk | SDE | Isamaa | EVA | EKRE | Rohelised | E200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 March 2015 | General Election | 27.7% 30 |
24.8% 27 |
15.2% 15 |
13.7% 14 |
8.7% 8 |
8.1% 7 |
0.9% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
| N/A | Poll Average | 23–29% 26–33 |
21–29% 23–34 |
10–14% 10–15 |
9–14% 9–14 |
0–3% 0 |
16–20% 17–23 |
1–3% 0 |
3–6% 0–5 |
| 24 February–1 March 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
24–29% 26–33 |
21–26% 23–29 |
11–15% 10–15 |
10–14% 10–15 |
0–1% 0 |
15–20% 16–22 |
1–3% 0 |
3–6% 0–5 |
| 26–28 February 2019 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
24–29% 27–34 |
22–27% 25–31 |
10–14% 10–15 |
8–12% 8–12 |
1–2% 0 |
15–20% 16–22 |
2–3% 0 |
3–6% 0–5 |
| 7–20 February 2019 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
23–25% 26–29 |
27–29% 31–35 |
10–12% 10–12 |
9–11% 9–11 |
2% 0 |
16–18% 18–20 |
3–4% 0 |
3–5% 0 |
| 12–18 February 2019 | OÜ Faktum & Ariko | 23–28% 27–33 |
20–25% 23–29 |
9–13% 10–14 |
9–13% 10–14 |
1–3% 0 |
16–20% 18–24 |
1–3% 0 |
3–5% 0–5 |
| 1 March 2015 | General Election | 27.7% 30 |
24.8% 27 |
15.2% 15 |
13.7% 14 |
8.7% 8 |
8.1% 7 |
0.9% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
Only polls for which at least the sample size has been published are included in the table above.
Legend:
- Top half of each row: Voting intentions (95% confidence interval)
- Bottom half of each row: Seat projections for the Riigikogu (95% confidence interval)
- Ref: Eesti Reformierakond
- Kesk: Eesti Keskerakond
- SDE: Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
- Isamaa: Erakond Isamaa
- EVA: Eesti Vabaerakond
- EKRE: Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
- Rohelised: Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised
- E200: Eesti 200
- N/A (single party): Party not included the published results
- N/A (entire row): Calculation for this opinion poll not started yet
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond | 27.7% | 25.5% | 23.6–27.7% | 23.3–28.3% | 23.0–28.8% | 22.5–29.8% |
| Eesti Keskerakond | 24.8% | 24.2% | 21.6–28.2% | 21.1–28.6% | 20.6–28.8% | 19.7–29.3% |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 15.2% | 11.5% | 10.4–13.2% | 10.2–13.6% | 9.9–14.1% | 9.3–14.9% |
| Erakond Isamaa | 13.7% | 10.7% | 9.5–12.7% | 9.2–13.3% | 9.0–13.7% | 8.4–14.6% |
| Eesti Vabaerakond | 8.7% | 1.7% | 0.7–2.3% | 0.6–2.4% | 0.5–2.6% | 0.3–3.0% |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 8.1% | 17.4% | 16.3–19.1% | 15.9–19.6% | 15.6–20.0% | 14.9–20.8% |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised | 0.9% | 2.2% | 1.5–3.1% | 1.3–3.3% | 1.2–3.4% | 1.0–3.6% |
| Eesti 200 | 0.0% | 4.2% | 3.6–5.0% | 3.4–5.3% | 3.2–5.6% | 2.9–6.1% |
Eesti Reformierakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.5–21.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 8% | 99.4% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 22% | 92% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 20% | 69% | Median |
| 25.5–26.5% | 20% | 49% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 16% | 29% | |
| 27.5–28.5% | 9% | 12% | Last Result |
| 28.5–29.5% | 3% | 4% | |
| 29.5–30.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 30.5–31.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31.5–32.5% | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.5–18.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 7% | 98% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 13% | 91% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 17% | 78% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 17% | 60% | Median |
| 24.5–25.5% | 11% | 44% | Last Result |
| 25.5–26.5% | 6% | 32% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 8% | 27% | |
| 27.5–28.5% | 14% | 19% | |
| 28.5–29.5% | 5% | 5% | |
| 29.5–30.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 30.5–31.5% | 0% | 0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 11% | 98.9% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 39% | 88% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 27% | 49% | Median |
| 12.5–13.5% | 15% | 21% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 5% | 6% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0% | 0% |
Erakond Isamaa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 10% | 99.2% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 35% | 89% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 24% | 54% | Median |
| 11.5–12.5% | 17% | 29% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 9% | 13% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Vabaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 5% | 100% | |
| 0.5–1.5% | 39% | 95% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 53% | 56% | Median |
| 2.5–3.5% | 3% | 3% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 14% | 98% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 37% | 83% | Median |
| 17.5–18.5% | 27% | 47% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 14% | 19% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 4% | 5% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 0% | 0% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 0.5–1.5% | 13% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1.5–2.5% | 51% | 87% | Median |
| 2.5–3.5% | 35% | 36% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 0% |
Eesti 200
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 9% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 65% | 91% | Median |
| 4.5–5.5% | 24% | 27% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 3% | 3% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond | 30 | 30 | 27–32 | 27–33 | 26–33 | 26–35 |
| Eesti Keskerakond | 27 | 28 | 24–33 | 24–34 | 23–34 | 22–35 |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 15 | 12 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 | 9–16 |
| Erakond Isamaa | 14 | 11 | 10–13 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 8–15 |
| Eesti Vabaerakond | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 7 | 19 | 18–21 | 17–22 | 17–23 | 16–24 |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eesti 200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
Eesti Reformierakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 26 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 27 | 15% | 97% | |
| 28 | 17% | 82% | |
| 29 | 14% | 65% | |
| 30 | 14% | 50% | Last Result, Median |
| 31 | 19% | 37% | |
| 32 | 11% | 18% | |
| 33 | 5% | 7% | |
| 34 | 2% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 24 | 7% | 96% | |
| 25 | 11% | 89% | |
| 26 | 13% | 79% | |
| 27 | 14% | 65% | Last Result |
| 28 | 13% | 51% | Median |
| 29 | 7% | 38% | |
| 30 | 4% | 31% | |
| 31 | 3% | 27% | |
| 32 | 6% | 25% | |
| 33 | 12% | 19% | |
| 34 | 6% | 7% | |
| 35 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 10 | 6% | 99.3% | |
| 11 | 28% | 93% | |
| 12 | 33% | 66% | Median |
| 13 | 20% | 33% | |
| 14 | 9% | 13% | |
| 15 | 3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 16 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Erakond Isamaa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 8% | 98.8% | |
| 10 | 29% | 91% | |
| 11 | 26% | 62% | Median |
| 12 | 18% | 36% | |
| 13 | 10% | 18% | |
| 14 | 6% | 8% | Last Result |
| 15 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Vabaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 16 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 17 | 7% | 98% | |
| 18 | 23% | 91% | |
| 19 | 28% | 68% | Median |
| 20 | 19% | 40% | |
| 21 | 12% | 21% | |
| 22 | 6% | 9% | |
| 23 | 3% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Eesti 200
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 90% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 10% | |
| 2 | 0% | 10% | |
| 3 | 0% | 10% | |
| 4 | 4% | 10% | |
| 5 | 5% | 6% | |
| 6 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 64 | 78 | 100% | 74–80 | 72–80 | 72–81 | 70–81 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 51 | 60 | 100% | 56–64 | 56–65 | 55–65 | 55–66 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond | 57 | 58 | 99.7% | 54–61 | 53–62 | 52–62 | 51–63 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond | 67 | 53 | 73% | 49–57 | 49–57 | 48–58 | 47–59 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa | 59 | 53 | 73% | 49–57 | 49–57 | 48–58 | 47–59 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa | 56 | 51 | 60% | 48–55 | 47–56 | 46–56 | 45–57 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 37 | 49 | 30% | 46–52 | 45–53 | 45–53 | 44–55 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 34 | 47 | 24% | 44–52 | 43–52 | 42–53 | 40–54 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 45 | 42 | 0% | 39–45 | 38–46 | 38–46 | 37–47 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa | 44 | 41 | 0% | 37–44 | 37–45 | 37–46 | 36–47 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 42 | 40 | 0% | 36–45 | 36–45 | 35–45 | 34–46 |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 22 | 31 | 0% | 29–34 | 29–35 | 28–35 | 27–36 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 71 | 1.4% | 99.1% | |
| 72 | 3% | 98% | |
| 73 | 4% | 95% | |
| 74 | 6% | 91% | |
| 75 | 9% | 85% | |
| 76 | 10% | 75% | |
| 77 | 14% | 65% | Median |
| 78 | 14% | 51% | |
| 79 | 20% | 37% | |
| 80 | 15% | 18% | |
| 81 | 3% | 3% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0% | 100% | Last Result, Majority |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 56 | 12% | 97% | |
| 57 | 12% | 85% | |
| 58 | 8% | 74% | |
| 59 | 8% | 66% | |
| 60 | 11% | 58% | Median |
| 61 | 13% | 47% | |
| 62 | 12% | 34% | |
| 63 | 10% | 22% | |
| 64 | 6% | 12% | |
| 65 | 5% | 7% | |
| 66 | 2% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 99.7% | Majority |
| 52 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 53 | 4% | 97% | |
| 54 | 6% | 93% | |
| 55 | 9% | 87% | |
| 56 | 11% | 79% | |
| 57 | 11% | 68% | Last Result |
| 58 | 13% | 57% | Median |
| 59 | 9% | 44% | |
| 60 | 13% | 34% | |
| 61 | 15% | 21% | |
| 62 | 5% | 7% | |
| 63 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 49 | 14% | 96% | |
| 50 | 8% | 82% | |
| 51 | 8% | 73% | Majority |
| 52 | 9% | 66% | |
| 53 | 13% | 57% | Median |
| 54 | 13% | 43% | |
| 55 | 11% | 30% | |
| 56 | 9% | 19% | |
| 57 | 6% | 11% | |
| 58 | 3% | 5% | |
| 59 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 49 | 14% | 96% | |
| 50 | 8% | 82% | |
| 51 | 8% | 73% | Majority |
| 52 | 9% | 66% | |
| 53 | 13% | 57% | Median |
| 54 | 13% | 43% | |
| 55 | 11% | 30% | |
| 56 | 9% | 19% | |
| 57 | 6% | 11% | |
| 58 | 3% | 5% | |
| 59 | 1.3% | 2% | Last Result |
| 60 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 46 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 47 | 3% | 97% | |
| 48 | 7% | 94% | |
| 49 | 10% | 86% | |
| 50 | 15% | 76% | |
| 51 | 12% | 60% | Median, Majority |
| 52 | 10% | 48% | |
| 53 | 9% | 38% | |
| 54 | 11% | 29% | |
| 55 | 13% | 18% | |
| 56 | 5% | 5% | Last Result |
| 57 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 44 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 45 | 6% | 98.6% | |
| 46 | 14% | 93% | |
| 47 | 13% | 79% | |
| 48 | 11% | 66% | |
| 49 | 11% | 55% | Median |
| 50 | 13% | 43% | |
| 51 | 14% | 30% | Majority |
| 52 | 8% | 15% | |
| 53 | 4% | 7% | |
| 54 | 2% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 42 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 43 | 6% | 96% | |
| 44 | 8% | 91% | |
| 45 | 10% | 83% | |
| 46 | 12% | 72% | |
| 47 | 13% | 60% | Median |
| 48 | 11% | 47% | |
| 49 | 7% | 36% | |
| 50 | 6% | 29% | |
| 51 | 7% | 24% | Majority |
| 52 | 13% | 17% | |
| 53 | 3% | 4% | |
| 54 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 37 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 38 | 6% | 98.5% | |
| 39 | 16% | 93% | |
| 40 | 12% | 76% | |
| 41 | 12% | 64% | |
| 42 | 14% | 52% | Median |
| 43 | 14% | 38% | |
| 44 | 10% | 24% | |
| 45 | 9% | 14% | Last Result |
| 46 | 4% | 5% | |
| 47 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 9% | 98.6% | |
| 38 | 13% | 90% | |
| 39 | 11% | 76% | |
| 40 | 11% | 65% | |
| 41 | 14% | 54% | Median |
| 42 | 15% | 40% | |
| 43 | 10% | 25% | |
| 44 | 8% | 15% | Last Result |
| 45 | 4% | 7% | |
| 46 | 2% | 3% | |
| 47 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 35 | 3% | 98% | |
| 36 | 7% | 96% | |
| 37 | 8% | 88% | |
| 38 | 11% | 80% | |
| 39 | 13% | 69% | |
| 40 | 12% | 56% | Median |
| 41 | 9% | 44% | |
| 42 | 6% | 35% | Last Result |
| 43 | 6% | 29% | |
| 44 | 10% | 23% | |
| 45 | 11% | 13% | |
| 46 | 2% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 29 | 11% | 97% | |
| 30 | 20% | 85% | |
| 31 | 22% | 65% | Median |
| 32 | 16% | 43% | |
| 33 | 13% | 27% | |
| 34 | 8% | 14% | |
| 35 | 4% | 5% | |
| 36 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
- Number of polls included in this average: 4
- Lowest number of simulations done in a poll included in this average: 1,048,576
- Total number of simulations done in the polls included in this average: 4,194,304
- Error estimate: 2.80%