Aontú (*)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 7 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 3.5% | 1.9–5.3% | 1.7–5.6% | 1.5–5.8% | 1.3–6.3% |
| 22–26 November 2024 | Red C Business Post |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
| 20–23 November 2024 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 1.9–4.5% |
| 21–22 November 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
5.0% | 4.3–5.8% | 4.1–6.1% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.7–6.7% |
| 7–13 November 2024 | Opinions The Sunday Times |
2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| 12–13 November 2024 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 1.9–4.5% |
| 1–7 November 2024 | Red C Business Post |
5.0% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.0–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.6–6.8% |
| 1–2 November 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3.0% | 2.5–3.6% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.2% |
| 18–23 October 2024 | Red C Business Post |
3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.8–4.7% |
| 16–22 October 2024 | Red C Business Post |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| 10–16 October 2024 | Opinions The Sunday Times |
2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| 4 October 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
4.0% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.8–5.5% |
| 13–19 September 2024 | Opinions The Sunday Times |
2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| 14–17 September 2024 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% |
| 5–10 September 2024 | Red C Business Post |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
| 31 August 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.0–4.4% |
| 29–30 August 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.8–4.7% |
| 2 August 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.3–5.0% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.6% |
| 5 July 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.3–5.0% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.5% |
| 26 June 2024 | Red C Business Post |
3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Aontú (*).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 3% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 22% | 97% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 26% | 75% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 24% | 49% | Median |
| 4.5–5.5% | 20% | 26% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 5% | 5% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 7 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 22–26 November 2024 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 20–23 November 2024 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 21–22 November 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 7–13 November 2024 | Opinions The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12–13 November 2024 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1–7 November 2024 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 1–2 November 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 18–23 October 2024 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 16–22 October 2024 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 10–16 October 2024 | Opinions The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 October 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 13–19 September 2024 | Opinions The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14–17 September 2024 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5–10 September 2024 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 31 August 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 29–30 August 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 2 August 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 5 July 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 26 June 2024 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Aontú (*).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 70% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 30% | 30% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |