Jaunā konservatīvā partija
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.7% (General Election of 4 October 2014)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 9.9% | 7.8–15.1% | 7.3–15.5% | 7.0–15.8% | 6.3–16.4% |
| 24–30 September 2018 | FACTUM | 14.8% | 14.0–15.8% | 13.7–16.1% | 13.5–16.3% | 13.1–16.8% |
| 17–23 September 2018 | FACTUM | 16.2% | 15.2–17.2% | 15.0–17.5% | 14.7–17.7% | 14.3–18.2% |
| 8–18 September 2018 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
8.4% | 7.1–10.0% | 6.8–10.5% | 6.5–10.9% | 5.9–11.7% |
| 10–16 September 2018 | FACTUM | 13.7% | 12.5–15.1% | 12.2–15.5% | 11.9–15.9% | 11.3–16.5% |
| 10–14 September 2018 | Norstat | 10.2% | 8.2–12.8% | 7.7–13.6% | 7.2–14.3% | 6.3–15.6% |
| 8 August–12 September 2018 | Kantar TNS Delfi |
9.2% | 7.9–10.8% | 7.6–11.2% | 7.3–11.6% | 6.7–12.4% |
| 31 August–9 September 2018 | FACTUM | 14.7% | 13.5–16.0% | 13.2–16.4% | 12.9–16.7% | 12.3–17.4% |
| 30 August–5 September 2018 | FACTUM | 14.6% | 13.6–15.7% | 13.3–16.0% | 13.1–16.2% | 12.6–16.8% |
| 27 August–2 September 2018 | FACTUM | 14.6% | 13.6–15.7% | 13.3–16.0% | 13.1–16.2% | 12.6–16.8% |
| 25–31 August 2018 | FACTUM | 14.3% | 13.3–15.4% | 13.0–15.7% | 12.7–16.0% | 12.2–16.6% |
| 22–28 August 2018 | FACTUM | 12.6% | 11.9–14.3% | 11.6–14.6% | 11.3–14.9% | 10.8–15.5% |
| 20–26 August 2018 | FACTUM | 11.4% | 10.7–13.0% | 10.4–13.3% | 10.2–13.6% | 9.7–14.2% |
| 1–23 August 2018 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
4.4% | 3.5–5.7% | 3.3–6.1% | 3.0–6.4% | 2.7–7.1% |
| 13–19 August 2018 | FACTUM | 9.7% | 8.8–10.8% | 8.5–11.1% | 8.3–11.4% | 7.8–11.9% |
| 17–23 July 2018 | FACTUM | 10.2% | 9.5–11.6% | 9.3–11.9% | 9.1–12.2% | 8.6–12.7% |
| 1–30 June 2018 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
6.3% | 5.2–7.8% | 4.9–8.2% | 4.7–8.5% | 4.2–9.3% |
| 1–31 May 2018 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
4.1% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.0–5.7% | 2.8–6.0% | 2.4–6.7% |
| 1–31 May 2018 | Norstat TV3 Latvija |
8.5% | 7.3–10.0% | 7.0–10.4% | 6.7–10.8% | 6.2–11.6% |
| 1–30 April 2018 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
5.9% | 4.8–7.2% | 4.5–7.6% | 4.3–8.0% | 3.8–8.7% |
| 1–31 March 2018 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
6.3% | 5.2–7.8% | 4.8–8.2% | 4.6–8.6% | 4.1–9.4% |
| 1–28 February 2018 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
6.6% | 5.5–8.1% | 5.2–8.5% | 4.9–8.9% | 4.4–9.6% |
| 1–31 January 2018 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
7.1% | 5.9–8.7% | 5.6–9.1% | 5.3–9.5% | 4.8–10.3% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Jaunā konservatīvā partija.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 6% | 99.0% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 16% | 93% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 21% | 77% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 16% | 57% | Median |
| 10.5–11.5% | 9% | 41% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 4% | 32% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 3% | 28% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 8% | 26% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 13% | 17% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 4% | 4% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 4 October 2014)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 12 | 8–15 | 8–16 | 7–16 | 7–18 |
| 24–30 September 2018 | FACTUM | 15 | 15–16 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 14–19 |
| 17–23 September 2018 | FACTUM | 18 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 15–21 |
| 8–18 September 2018 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
10 | 8–11 | 7–13 | 7–13 | 7–14 |
| 10–16 September 2018 | FACTUM | 15 | 14–16 | 13–17 | 13–18 | 13–19 |
| 10–14 September 2018 | Norstat | 13 | 9–16 | 8–16 | 8–16 | 7–19 |
| 8 August–12 September 2018 | Kantar TNS Delfi |
11 | 8–13 | 8–13 | 7–14 | 7–15 |
| 31 August–9 September 2018 | FACTUM | 19 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 15–21 | 15–22 |
| 30 August–5 September 2018 | FACTUM | 19 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 16–21 | 15–22 |
| 27 August–2 September 2018 | FACTUM | 19 | 18–20 | 17–20 | 17–21 | 16–22 |
| 25–31 August 2018 | FACTUM | 18 | 17–20 | 16–20 | 16–21 | 16–22 |
| 22–28 August 2018 | FACTUM | 16 | 15–17 | 15–18 | 14–19 | 13–19 |
| 20–26 August 2018 | FACTUM | 13 | 13–15 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–15 |
| 1–23 August 2018 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
0 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–8 |
| 13–19 August 2018 | FACTUM | 13 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–15 | 10–16 |
| 17–23 July 2018 | FACTUM | 12 | 11–13 | 9–14 | 8–15 | 8–15 |
| 1–30 June 2018 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
7 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 0–9 | 0–10 |
| 1–31 May 2018 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
0 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–8 |
| 1–31 May 2018 | Norstat TV3 Latvija |
10 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 8–13 | 8–15 |
| 1–30 April 2018 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
7 | 0–8 | 0–8 | 0–9 | 0–10 |
| 1–31 March 2018 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
7 | 0–9 | 0–10 | 0–10 | 0–11 |
| 1–28 February 2018 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 0–11 | 0–11 |
| 1–31 January 2018 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
8 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 0–12 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Jaunā konservatīvā partija.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 3% | 100% | |
| 8 | 11% | 97% | |
| 9 | 6% | 86% | |
| 10 | 13% | 80% | |
| 11 | 15% | 67% | |
| 12 | 6% | 52% | Median |
| 13 | 11% | 46% | |
| 14 | 3% | 36% | |
| 15 | 27% | 33% | |
| 16 | 4% | 7% | |
| 17 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |