Fidesz–KDNP

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 44.9% (General Election of 6 April 2014)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 49.7% 41.9–61.4% 40.4–63.1% 39.5–64.0% 38.1–65.4%
28 March–3 April 2018 Publicus Research 44.6% 42.6–46.7% 42.1–47.2% 41.6–47.7% 40.6–48.7%
1–31 March 2018 Századvég Alapítvány 51.0% 49.0–53.0% 48.4–53.6% 47.9–54.1% 46.9–55.1%
23–27 March 2018 Medián
hvg.hu		 52.8% 51.0–54.7% 50.4–55.2% 50.0–55.6% 49.1–56.5%
21–24 March 2018 Iránytű Intézet
Magyar Nemzet		 40.8% 38.8–42.8% 38.3–43.4% 37.8–43.9% 36.9–44.9%
10–23 March 2018 Republikon Intézet
24.hu		 48.9% 46.9–50.9% 46.3–51.5% 45.8–52.0% 44.8–53.0%
3–19 March 2018 Nézőpont Intézet 51.7% 49.7–53.7% 49.1–54.3% 48.6–54.8% 47.6–55.8%
7–14 March 2018 ZRI Závecz Research 47.0% 45.0–49.0% 44.4–49.6% 43.9–50.1% 43.0–51.1%
9–14 March 2018 Publicus Research 48.8% 46.7–50.8% 46.2–51.4% 45.7–51.9% 44.7–52.8%
2–7 March 2018 Medián
hvg.hu		 53.8% 51.9–55.6% 51.4–56.1% 50.9–56.6% 50.0–57.4%
1–5 March 2018 Nézőpont Intézet 51.7% 49.7–53.7% 49.1–54.3% 48.6–54.8% 47.6–55.8%
26–28 February 2018 Századvég Alapítvány 52.7% 50.7–54.7% 50.1–55.3% 49.6–55.8% 48.6–56.7%
1–28 February 2018 Iránytű Intézet
Magyar Nemzet		 43.9% 41.9–45.9% 41.3–46.5% 40.8–47.0% 39.9–48.0%
9–22 February 2018 Republikon Intézet
24.hu		 50.0% 48.0–52.0% 47.4–52.6% 46.9–53.1% 45.9–54.1%
3–21 February 2018 Nézőpont Intézet 53.9% 52.4–55.3% 52.0–55.7% 51.7–56.0% 51.0–56.7%
7–15 February 2018 ZRI Závecz Research 51.6% 49.6–53.6% 49.0–54.2% 48.5–54.7% 47.5–55.7%
9–14 February 2018 Publicus Research 47.6% 45.6–49.6% 45.0–50.2% 44.5–50.7% 43.6–51.7%
6–13 February 2018 Századvég Alapítvány 50.6% 48.6–52.6% 48.0–53.2% 47.5–53.7% 46.5–54.7%
1–31 January 2018 Republikon Intézet
24.hu		 52.9% 50.9–54.9% 50.3–55.5% 49.8–56.0% 48.8–56.9%
17–24 January 2018 Századvég Alapítvány 50.5% 48.5–52.5% 47.9–53.1% 47.4–53.6% 46.4–54.6%
11–23 January 2018 TÁRKI 62.7% 60.8–64.7% 60.2–65.2% 59.7–65.7% 58.8–66.6%
19–23 January 2018 Medián
hvg.hu		 53.2% 51.3–55.0% 50.8–55.5% 50.3–56.0% 49.4–56.9%
1–20 January 2018 ZRI Závecz Research 49.9% 47.9–51.9% 47.3–52.5% 46.8–53.0% 45.8–54.0%
3–18 January 2018 Nézőpont Intézet 52.5% 51.0–53.9% 50.6–54.3% 50.3–54.6% 49.6–55.3%
10–16 January 2018 Publicus Research 48.3% 46.3–50.3% 45.7–50.9% 45.2–51.4% 44.3–52.3%
5–9 January 2018 Iránytű Intézet 47.8% 45.8–49.8% 45.2–50.4% 44.7–50.9% 43.7–51.9%
27 December 2017–2 January 2018 Századvég Alapítvány 51.5% 49.5–53.5% 48.9–54.1% 48.4–54.6% 47.4–55.6%
10–20 December 2017 Republikon Intézet
24.hu		 57.3% 55.3–59.3% 54.7–59.9% 54.2–60.3% 53.2–61.3%
1–18 December 2017 Nézőpont Intézet 50.9% 49.4–52.3% 49.0–52.7% 48.7–53.0% 48.0–53.7%
6–14 December 2017 ZRI Závecz Research 51.9% 49.9–53.9% 49.3–54.5% 48.8–55.0% 47.8–56.0%
8–13 December 2017 Publicus Research 47.8% 45.7–49.8% 45.2–50.4% 44.7–50.9% 43.7–51.8%
6–12 December 2017 Iránytű Intézet 49.3% 47.3–51.3% 46.7–51.9% 46.2–52.4% 45.2–53.4%
18–30 November 2017 Republikon Intézet
24.hu		 56.3% 54.3–58.3% 53.7–58.9% 53.2–59.4% 52.2–60.3%
1–30 November 2017 Medián
hvg.hu		 59.6% 57.8–61.4% 57.2–61.9% 56.8–62.3% 55.9–63.2%
24–30 November 2017 Iránytű Intézet 49.4% 47.4–51.4% 46.8–52.0% 46.3–52.5% 45.3–53.5%
20–28 November 2017 Századvég Alapítvány 50.6% 48.6–52.6% 48.0–53.2% 47.5–53.7% 46.5–54.7%
1–19 November 2017 Nézőpont Intézet 48.0% 46.6–49.4% 46.2–49.8% 45.8–50.2% 45.1–50.9%
11–15 November 2017 Publicus Research 50.8% 48.8–52.9% 48.2–53.5% 47.8–53.9% 46.8–54.9%
6–14 November 2017 ZRI Závecz Research 49.0% 47.0–51.0% 46.4–51.6% 45.9–52.1% 44.9–53.1%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Fidesz–KDNP.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35.5–36.5% 0% 100%  
36.5–37.5% 0.2% 100%  
37.5–38.5% 0.7% 99.8%  
38.5–39.5% 2% 99.1%  
39.5–40.5% 3% 97%  
40.5–41.5% 3% 95%  
41.5–42.5% 3% 91%  
42.5–43.5% 3% 88%  
43.5–44.5% 4% 85%  
44.5–45.5% 5% 81% Last Result
45.5–46.5% 5% 76%  
46.5–47.5% 6% 71%  
47.5–48.5% 6% 65%  
48.5–49.5% 7% 58%  
49.5–50.5% 8% 51% Median
50.5–51.5% 9% 43%  
51.5–52.5% 9% 35%  
52.5–53.5% 7% 26%  
53.5–54.5% 4% 19%  
54.5–55.5% 2% 15%  
55.5–56.5% 0.4% 13%  
56.5–57.5% 0.1% 13%  
57.5–58.5% 0% 13%  
58.5–59.5% 0.2% 12%  
59.5–60.5% 0.7% 12%  
60.5–61.5% 2% 12%  
61.5–62.5% 3% 10%  
62.5–63.5% 3% 7%  
63.5–64.5% 2% 4%  
64.5–65.5% 1.0% 1.4%  
65.5–66.5% 0.3% 0.4%  
66.5–67.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
67.5–68.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 133 seats (General Election of 6 April 2014)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 156 145–170 140–172 137–173 132–175
28 March–3 April 2018 Publicus Research 150 146–153 145–153 144–154 142–156
1–31 March 2018 Századvég Alapítvány 155 153–157 152–158 152–159 150–160
23–27 March 2018 Medián
hvg.hu		 159 157–161 157–162 156–163 155–165
21–24 March 2018 Iránytű Intézet
Magyar Nemzet		 142 133–147 132–147 130–148 124–149
10–23 March 2018 Republikon Intézet
24.hu		 158 154–161 153–162 153–162 151–164
3–19 March 2018 Nézőpont Intézet 158 156–161 155–161 155–161 154–162
7–14 March 2018 ZRI Závecz Research 154 151–156 151–157 150–158 148–159
9–14 March 2018 Publicus Research 154 151–157 150–158 150–159 149–159
2–7 March 2018 Medián
hvg.hu		 160 158–163 157–164 156–164 156–165
1–5 March 2018 Nézőpont Intézet 158 156–161 155–162 154–162 153–164
26–28 February 2018 Századvég Alapítvány 157 155–159 154–160 154–161 153–162
1–28 February 2018 Iránytű Intézet
Magyar Nemzet		 146 143–149 141–150 140–151 135–153
9–22 February 2018 Republikon Intézet
24.hu		 154 151–157 150–158 149–159 148–160
3–21 February 2018 Nézőpont Intézet 161 159–162 159–163 158–163 158–164
7–15 February 2018 ZRI Závecz Research 157 154–159 154–160 153–160 152–162
9–14 February 2018 Publicus Research 154 151–157 150–158 150–159 149–160
6–13 February 2018 Századvég Alapítvány 154 152–157 152–157 152–158 151–159
1–31 January 2018 Republikon Intézet
24.hu		 163 160–166 159–167 158–168 157–169
17–24 January 2018 Századvég Alapítvány 155 153–159 152–160 152–161 151–162
11–23 January 2018 TÁRKI 171 169–174 168–175 167–176 166–178
19–23 January 2018 Medián
hvg.hu		 157 156–160 155–160 155–161 154–163
1–20 January 2018 ZRI Závecz Research 156 154–158 153–159 153–159 152–160
3–18 January 2018 Nézőpont Intézet 162 160–163 160–163 159–164 159–164
10–16 January 2018 Publicus Research 156 153–159 152–160 152–160 150–162
5–9 January 2018 Iránytű Intézet 154 151–157 150–158 149–158 148–159
27 December 2017–2 January 2018 Századvég Alapítvány 158 155–160 154–161 154–162 152–164
10–20 December 2017 Republikon Intézet
24.hu		 166 162–170 161–171 161–171 160–172
1–18 December 2017 Nézőpont Intézet 159 157–160 157–161 157–161 156–162
6–14 December 2017 ZRI Závecz Research 159 157–161 156–161 156–162 155–163
8–13 December 2017 Publicus Research 156 154–159 153–160 152–161 151–162
6–12 December 2017 Iránytű Intézet 157 154–159 153–159 152–160 150–161
18–30 November 2017 Republikon Intézet
24.hu		 164 162–167 161–169 161–169 160–172
1–30 November 2017 Medián
hvg.hu		 166 163–169 162–169 162–169 161–170
24–30 November 2017 Iránytű Intézet 156 153–158 151–159 150–159 149–160
20–28 November 2017 Századvég Alapítvány 156 153–159 153–160 152–160 151–162
1–19 November 2017 Nézőpont Intézet 157 155–159 155–159 154–159 153–160
11–15 November 2017 Publicus Research 158 155–160 154–161 154–162 153–163
6–14 November 2017 ZRI Závecz Research 155 153–158 152–158 151–159 150–161

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Fidesz–KDNP.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0.1% 99.8%  
129 0.1% 99.8%  
130 0.1% 99.7%  
131 0.2% 99.7%  
132 0.4% 99.5%  
133 0.4% 99.1% Last Result
134 0.3% 98.7%  
135 0.7% 98%  
136 0.3% 98%  
137 0.7% 98%  
138 1.0% 97%  
139 0.5% 96%  
140 0.4% 95%  
141 1.2% 95%  
142 0.5% 94%  
143 0.8% 93%  
144 2% 92%  
145 2% 91%  
146 2% 89%  
147 1.5% 87%  
148 2% 85%  
149 2% 84%  
150 2% 81%  
151 3% 79%  
152 4% 77%  
153 6% 73%  
154 6% 67%  
155 7% 60%  
156 6% 53% Median
157 7% 47%  
158 9% 40%  
159 7% 31%  
160 6% 24%  
161 4% 18%  
162 1.2% 14%  
163 0.5% 13%  
164 0.2% 13%  
165 0.1% 13%  
166 0.1% 12%  
167 0.3% 12%  
168 0.4% 12%  
169 0.8% 12%  
170 2% 11%  
171 4% 9%  
172 2% 5%  
173 2% 3%  
174 0.8% 1.4%  
175 0.3% 0.7%  
176 0.1% 0.4%  
177 0.2% 0.2%  
178 0.1% 0.1%  
179 0% 0%